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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2007‒03‒24
twenty papers chosen by |
| By: | Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Arjen Y. Hoekstra; Roberto Roson; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analysing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical constraints, and of policies curbing water demand. Four scenarios are based on a “market solution”, where water owners can capitalize their water rent or taxes are recycled. In the fifth “non-market” scenario, this is not the case; supply restrictions imply productivity losses. Restrictions in water supply would shift trade patterns of agriculture and virtual water. These shifts are larger if the restriction is larger, and if the use of water in production is more rigid. Welfare losses are substantially larger in the non-market situation. Water-constrained agricultural producers lose, but unconstrained agricultural produces gain; industry gains as well. As a result, there are regional winners and losers from water supply constraints. Because of the current distortions of agricultural markets, water supply constraints could improve allocative efficiency; this welfare gain may more than offset the welfare losses due to the resource constraint. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Sustainable Water Supply, Virtual Water, Water Scarcity |
| JEL: | D58 Q25 Q28 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:93&r=agr |
| By: | Neil McCulloch (World Bank Office Jakarta); Julian Weisbrod (University of Goettingen); C. Peter Timmer (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Poverty dynamics, non-farm sector, micro-growth regression |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O18 O53 R11 |
| Date: | 2007–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:vwldps:131&r=agr |
| By: | Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Roberto Roson; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless affected by other countries’ taxes. Taxes on agricultural water use drive most of the economic and welfare impacts. Reductions in water use (welfare losses) are less (more) than linear in the price of water. The results are sensitive to the assumed ability to substitute other production factors for water. A water tax on production would have different effects on water use, production and trade patterns, and the size and distribution of welfare losses than would a water tax on final consumption. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Virtual Water, Water Allocation, Water Pricing, Water Scarcity |
| JEL: | D58 Q25 Q28 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:96&r=agr |
| By: | Badiane, Ousmane |
| Abstract: | "African countries tend to be affected by global agricultural policies in the same way as other economies but with much more severe economy-wide repercussions... The present discussion paper 1) examines the vulnerability of Africa economies with respect to global agricultural trading policies and their induced changes in world agricultural markets, based on the above characteristics; 2) analyzes the efficiency effects within Africa's agricultural sector of world market distortions resulting from agricultural trading policies; 3) illustrates the impact of global protectionism on poverty levels and distribution among rural households in Africa and the implication for the objective of poverty reduction; 4) reviews the options and risks facing African countries in their pursuit of opportunities for greater participation in the global trading system, in particular in connection with the Doha trade agenda; and 5) discusses options for global trade liberalization that would best benefit African economies. The paper argues that the insistence on the part of African countries on Special and Differential Treatment entails much more risks than benefits for their economies. It also indicates that trade preferences have been less beneficial to African economies than usually assumed and at any rate have not been significant enough to compensate African countries for the negative impact of global protectionism. Finally, the paper also disagrees with the widely accepted conclusion that African countries would suffer from liberalization of global agricultural policies because they tend to be net food importers. That conclusion does not sufficiently take into consideration the dynamic long term effects of global policy changes on production and trading patterns among African countries and the potential efficiency effects that would emanate there from." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policies, International trade, agricultural sector, Protectionism, Doha agreement, trade liberalization, Poverty reduction, Rural households, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:39&r=agr |
| By: | Jennifer K. sesabo; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The effort to conserve fisheries resources and improve the welfare of small-scale fishing households is an important objective of Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) in Tanzania. The success of such strategies depends both on the variation and the level of efficiency within small-scale fishing households. This paper examines the technical efficiency of small-scale fishing households in Tanzania using data from two coastal villages (Mlingotini and Nyamanzi). A stochastic frontier (with technical inefficiency effects) model is specified and estimated. The estimated mean technical efficiency of small-scale fishing households is 52%. Results show that the efficiency of individual fishing households is positively associated with fishing experience, size of farming land, distance to the fishing ground, and potential market integration and negatively related to non-farm employment and bigger household sizes. We find that future policies aiming at targeting conservation-development issues in fishing communities should be concerted to provide mechanisms, which improve the access of small-scale fishing households to less destructive fishing tools via provision of credits, and markets as well as the creation of new employment opportunities in other sectors. |
| Keywords: | Fishing households, Fisheries development, Stochastic production frontier, Technical efficiency, Tanzania |
| JEL: | D13 O13 Q22 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:95&r=agr |
| By: | Nin Pratt, Alejandro; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "Considering the heterogeneity of the countries of southern Africa and the presence of South Africa and other middle-income countries in the region, southern Africa has a unique opportunity to exploit agricultural potential and regional trade opportunities through regional dynamics and integration. We analyze the implications of such opportunities for the growth of the low-income countries, using a regional general equilibrium model that captures growth linkages. We find that growth in the middle-income southern African countries, such as South Africa, benefits the region's low-income countries through increased demand for their agricultural exports. Agricultural productivity growth, however, is necessary for low-income countries to take advantage of South Africa's growth. Productivity growth in the low-income countries' grain and livestock sectors generates more growth in GDP and food consumption than growth in nontraditional export crops. Unlike other regions where growth in grain production is likely to be constrained by domestic demand, expanding middle-income economies in southern Africa provide additional demand for grains and livestock, slowing the decline in grain prices in the region." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Regional trade, General equilibrium model, Regional integration, Agricultural productivity, Grain production, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:42&r=agr |
| By: | Zhou Yuan; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Demand management plays an increasingly important role in dealing with water scarcity in China. It is important to understand the level and pattern of water use in various sectors across the regions for any measures being put into effect. The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the factors that influence water demand by examining closely the water use in domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. Using province level panel data from 1997 to 2003, the examination shows that the regional disparity in the level and pattern of water uses is considerable. The estimation of water demand shows that both economic and climatic variables have significant effects on water demand. The results suggest an income elasticity of 0.42 for the domestic sector, an output elasticity of -0.32 for industrial water use (per unit of output), and an output elasticity of –0.24 for irrigated agriculture (per land area). |
| Keywords: | water use, regional variation, elasticity, demand management |
| JEL: | L95 Q25 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:67&r=agr |
| By: | Christoffoli, Pedro Ivan |
| Abstract: | The article discuss the impact derived of the public policies adopted by brazilian government about the expansion of agribusiness activities that causes deforestation and social impacts in the Amazonian and Cerrados regions. |
| Keywords: | agricultural frontier in Brazil; soybean production; public policies and deforestation |
| JEL: | Q57 Q56 Q15 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2219&r=agr |
| By: | Kerstin Ronneberger; Uwe A. Schneider; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of future crop allocation under climate change suggest that cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are changed show that the observed results are dominated by the induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use decisions. |
| Keywords: | global land-use model, crop allocation, feed back loop, climate change |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:65&r=agr |
| By: | McCulloch, Neil; Weisbrod, Julian; Timmer, C. Peter |
| Abstract: | Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realized in farming, in rural nonfarm enterprises, or by way of rural-urban migration. The authors use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. The findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural nonfarm enterprises is an important route out of rur al poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. So changes in agricultural prices, wages, and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4173&r=agr |
| By: | Anthony Letsoalo; James Blignaut; Theuns de Wet; Martin de Wit; Sebastiaan Hess; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Jan van Heerden |
| Abstract: | The South African government is exploring ways to address water scarcity problems by introducing a water resource management charge on the quantity of water used in sectors such as irrigated agriculture, mining and forestry. It is expected that a more efficient water allocation, lower use and a positive impact on poverty can be achieved. This paper reports on the validity of these claims by applying a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the triple dividend of water consumption charges in South Africa: reduced water use, more rapid economic growth, and a more equal income distribution. It is shown that the appropriate, budget-neutral combination of water charges, particularly on irrigated agriculture and coal mining, and reduced indirect taxes, particularly on food, would yield triple dividends. |
| Keywords: | water scarcity, water charges, triple dividend, poverty alleviation, computable general equilibrium model |
| JEL: | O13 Q25 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:62&r=agr |
| By: | Shepherd, Ben; Delpeuch, Claire |
| Abstract: | • Available evidence strongly suggests that cotton producers in West Africa are relatively unresponsive to changes in world prices. This means they are poorly placed to take advantage of improved market conditions that might result from the reduction or abolition of cotton subsidies in rich countries. • To increase price responsiveness and ensure that the results of multilateral reform match producers’ expectations it is now more urgent than ever to undertake comprehensive regulatory reform of cotton marketing structures. • While most West African countries have already taken important steps in that direction, much work still remains to be done, in particular in Mali. The necessary path of reform is highly complex and country-specific, but we can suggest some overarching goals: Assuring closer alignment between world and domestic (producer) prices; Improving cotton sector productivity by reinforcing market infrastructure at crucial points in the supply chain, and ensuring openness to technological advances including biotechnology; Investing in physical and informational infrastructure so as to bring farmers closer to markets. |
| Keywords: | International trade; agriculture; cotton; commodity marketing; regulatory reform; West Africa. |
| JEL: | F13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2289&r=agr |
| By: | Chamberlin, Jordan; Pender, John; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "The choices that smallholder farmers are able to make are strongly conditioned by the geographic conditions in which they live. The importance of this fact for rural development strategy is not lost on policy makers. For example, the government of Ethiopia frequently frames policy discussions by broadly different geographical conditions of moisture availability, recognizing moisture reliable, drought prone and pastoralist areas. These conditions are seen as important criteria for determining the nature, extent and priority of development interventions for different parts of the country. There is considerable evidence, however, that other geographical factors also have important implications for rural development options. This paper uses agroecology, access to markets, and population density to define development domains: geographical locations sharing broadly similar rural development constraints and opportunities. Unlike similar efforts conducted elsewhere, this work is unique in that it seeks to move away from a subjective mapping of factors of theorized importance to a more rigorous definition of development domains on the basis of quantitative data on smallholder livelihood strategies. After selecting variables for mapping, we calibrate our definition for domains in such a way that their explanatory power is maximized across a range of livelihood strategies that figure in the current Ethiopian rural development discourse (market engagement, dependence upon agriculture, etc.)." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Smallholders, Small farmers, Geographic conditions, rural development strategies, Development policy, Agro-ecology, Market access, Livelihoods, Population density, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:43&r=agr |
| By: | Paul Mosley; Abrar Suleiman (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | We make two contributions to the debate on aid-effectiveness, illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other) expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development – these, our regression analysis confirms, are not only direct expenditure on agriculture, but also education and infrastructure, and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable pro-poor expenditure patterms (and in particular pro-agriculture expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which protect the poor against risk, the development of stable relations between governments and aid donors, and long-term political commitment to pro-poor strategies by government. The argument is pursued partly by panel-data econometric analysis of developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of sustained and non-sustained green revolutions in heavily aid-dependent countries in Africa. |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2005010&r=agr |
| By: | Gede Wibawa; Laxman Joshi; Meine Van Noordwijk; Eric André Penot (Agriculteurs et innovations - Innovations et dynamiques des exploitations agricoles - [CIRAD : UPR43], UMR 85 - UMR innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85][INRA] - [sup-agro]) |
| Abstract: | Smallholder rubber plantations in Indonesia, representing more than 80% of the total rubber areas, are very unique in the world. Most smallholder rubber areas are multi-strata in nature. Rubber is not the only perennial crop in that area, but also mixed with timber trees (forest re-growth), fruit trees, and different annual crops. Scientists identified these multistrata systems or called “Jungle Rubber” have multiple functions such as main income source for many farmers; keeping certain level of the forest biodiversity; Carbon sequestration; soil and water conservation. Many efforts have been done by the Indonesian Government to improve the productivity of jungle rubber through monocuture system such as Nucleolus Estate for Smallholding (NES); Project Management Unit (PMU); and Partial System. However, the rate of rubber replanting through those specific projects are too small compared to the total rubber areas in Indonesia. Taking into account the positive aspects of the Rubber Based Agroforestry Systems (RAS), ICRAF, CIRAD and IRRI worked jointly to implement various RAS systems in order to provide farmers better technological options for managing their farms. Results presented in this paper are collected from both on-station and on-farm research. At on-station, rubber planted at a double rows spacing (6m x 2m x 14m) with and without perennial intercrops was monitored and compared to that of the normal spacing (6mx3m). Rubber girth with double row spacing reached tappable size at five years after planting and similar to that planted with normal spacing. Rubber growth at the plot planted with Acacia mangium a very fast growing tree, at the same time with rubber, was very slow: a haft of that of the other treatments. If the fast growing trees are planted two years after rubber planting, then rubber growth is similar to that of normal spacing. Three types of RAS were tested at farmers' plots (RAS1, RAS2, and RAS3). The total number of participants is about 150 farmers, in 100 ha plots, distributed in Jambi, West Kalimantan, West Sumatra and South Sumatra. Results of clone comparison in RAS 1 type of trial (maintenance only on rubber rows) showed that rubber growth variability was more due to the variability of farmers' plots and frequencies of weeding. Rubber clones such as PB 260; RRIC 100 and BPM1 planted under RAS 1 can adapt the RAS conditions and can be tapped at 5-7 years after planting. These findings provide farmers alternatives to develop more environmentally friendly and divers systems in their farms, compared to that of monoculture system. This paper presents also various results related to more intensive RAS (RAS1 and RAS 3). |
| Keywords: | Agroforestry; rubber ; timber trees ; Acacia mangium ; Imperata cylindrica ; RAS ; Jambi ; West Kalimantan ; West Sumatra ; South Sumatra |
| Date: | 2007–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00137596_v1&r=agr |
| By: | Christine Roeckmann; Uwe A. Schneider; Michael A. St.John; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25. |
| Keywords: | Baltic cod, climate change, environmental variability, reproductive volume, population dynamics, management, policy, age-structured model, temporal marine reserve |
| JEL: | Q22 |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:84&r=agr |
| By: | You, Liangzhi; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Small farmers, Spatial analysis (Statistics), |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:40&r=agr |
| By: | Jeffrey I. Bernstein (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Theofanis P. Mamuneas (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus,) |
| Abstract: | Canadian food processing is an important manufacturing industry, accounting for 13 percent of shipments. By its nature food processing depends on infrastructure capital. Our objective is to estimate infrastructure’s effects on input requirements, cost and productivity. The increase in capital and decrease in materials were respectively 2.5 and 3 times greater than the -0.07 infrastructure elasticity of labor. Infrastructure investment was cost-reducing by inducing reductions in employment and intermediate inputs. A 1 percent increase caused cost to decline by 0.16 percent. Infrastructure capital was a major contributor to productivity, annually contributing 0.5 percentage points. This was nearly double TFP growth. |
| Keywords: | Food Processing, Infrastructure Capital, Productivity Growth. |
| JEL: | D24 L66 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0703&r=agr |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The avoided damages of climate change are estimated for a range of emission reduction policies from a range of business as usual scenarios. In the emission abatement scenarios, concentrations of greenhouse gases overshoot before falling to a stable level. The peak concentrations are used to characterise the stabilisation scenario. Similarly, the peak impacts are used to evaluate the scenarios. This is in line with avoiding “dangerous interference with the climate system”. Results are shown for both cost-effective and “realistic” emission reduction policies. Avoided climate change impacts increase with emission abatement, but the additionally avoided impacts fall as abatement gets more stringent. The most serious climate change impacts can be avoided with only modest emission reduction. Very stringent emission reduction may even increase climate change impacts, because of the removal of the sulphur veil and because emission abatement costs may slow economic growth and increase vulnerability. A comparison of the net present value of the costs of emission reduction with the net present value of the avoided damage also point towards more modest emission abatement. These findings are robust to variations in scenarios and parameters. |
| Keywords: | Avoided impacts of climate change, emission reduction, climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:64&r=agr |
| By: | Overman, Henry G.; Puga, Diego; Turner, Matthew A |
| Abstract: | This paper decomposes the growth in land occupied by residences in the United States to give the relative contributions of changing demographics versus increases in the land area used by individual households. Between 1976 and 1992 the amount of residential land in the United States grew 47.5% while population only grew 17.8%. At first glance, this suggests an important role for per household increases. However, the calculations in this paper show that only 24.3% of the growth in residential land area can be attributed to State level changes in land per household. 37.5% is due to overall population growth, 5.9% to the shift of population towards States with larger houses, 22.7% to an increase in the number of households over this period, and the remaining 9.5% to interactions between these changes. There are large differences across states and metropolitan areas in the relative importance of these components. |
| Keywords: | land use; population growth |
| JEL: | O51 R14 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6190&r=agr |