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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2005‒04‒30
thirteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Christian Gollier |
| Abstract: | The ability to share risk efficiently in the economy is essential to welfare and growth. However, the increased frequency of natural catastrophes over the last decade has raised once again questions associated to the limits of insurability in a free-market economy, and to the relevance of public interventions on risk-sharing markets. In this paper, we explore the potential reasons for the lack of insurance specifically associated to catastrophe environmental risks. Our final aim is to link each source of possible market inefficiency to its possible remedies. |
| JEL: | D52 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1409&r=agr |
| By: | Ankarhem, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the dynamic effects on the forest sector of an increased demand for biofuels. This is done by developing a partial adjustment model of the forest sector that enables short, intermediate, and long run price elasticities to be estimated. It is relevant to study the effects of increased demand for biofuels as the Swedish government has committed to an energy policy that is likely to further increase the use of renewable resources in the Swedish energy system. Four subsectors are included in the model: the forest owners, who supply sawtimber, pulpwood and forest fuels; the sawmills which demand sawtimber; the pulp and paper industry which demands pulpwood; and the energy industry which demands forest fuels. The results show that the short run elasticities are fairly consistent with earlier studies and that sluggish adjustment in the capital stock is important in determining the short and intermediate run responses. Simulation shows that an increase in the demand for forest fuels has a positive effect on the equilibrium price of all the three types of wood, and a negative effect on the equilibrium quantities of sawtimber and pulpwood. |
| Keywords: | Forest economics; Price elasticities; Long run; Energy sector |
| JEL: | L73 L78 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2005–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0658&r=agr |
| By: | Ankarhem, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | In this note, we estimate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2 , and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. The shadow prices are in the second step related to income to explain the environmental Kuznets curves previously found for Swedish data on the three emissions. A Shephard distance function approach is used to estimate a structural model of the industry’s production process in order to calculate the opportunity costs of a reduction in the emissions. We conclude that the times series of the shadow prices obtained using this approach do not show support for EKCs for Swedish industry |
| Keywords: | Emissions; Historical time series; Distance function |
| JEL: | O11 O13 Q51 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2005–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0659&r=agr |
| By: | Ankarhem, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we calculate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2, and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. Newly constructed historical emission time series enable studying a single country’s emission paths through increasing levels of economic activity. The shadow prices are, in the next step, related to income to explain the environmental Kuznets curves (EKC) previously found in Swedish data for these three emissions. A directional distance function approach is used to estimate the production process for Swedish industry thus enabling the opportunity costs of a reduction in these emissions to be calculated. We attribute the annual changes in the shadow prices to the main causal factors by decomposing them into a technological effect and a substitution effect. We conclude that the time series of the shadow prices show support for EKCs for Swedish industry |
| Keywords: | Emissions; Historical time series; Decomposition; Directional distance function |
| JEL: | O11 O13 Q51 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2005–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0660&r=agr |
| By: | Ankarhem, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This thesis consists of four papers: two of them deal with the effects on the forest sector of an increase in the demand for forest fuels, and two of them concern the relation between economic growth and pollution. <p>Paper [I] is a first, preliminary study of the potential effects on the Swedish forest sector of a continuing rise in the use of forest resources as a fuel in energy generation. Sweden has made a commitment that the energy system should be sustainable, i.e., it should be based on renewable resources. However, an increasing use of the forest resources as an energy input could have effects outside the energy sector. We consider this in a static model by estimating a system of demand and supply equations for the four main actors on the Swedish roundwood market; forestry, sawmills, pulpmills and the energy sector. We then calculate the industries' short run supply and demand elasticities. <p>Paper [II], is a development of the former paper. In this paper, we estimate the dynamic effects on the forest sector of an increased demand for forest fuels. This is done by developing a partial adjustment model of the forest sector that enables short, intermediate, and long run price elasticities to be estimated. It is relevant to study the effects of increased demand for forest fuels as the Swedish government has committed to an energy policy that is likely to further increase the use of renewable resources in the Swedish energy system. Four subsectors are included in the model: forestry, sawmills, pulpmills and the energy industry. The results show that the short run elasticities are fairly consistent with earlier studies and that sluggish adjustment in the capital stock is important in determining the intermediate and long run responses. Simulation shows that an increase in the demand for forest fuels has a positive effect on the equilibrium price of all three types of wood, and a negative effect on the equilibrium quantities of sawtimber and pulpwood. <p>In paper [III] a Shephard distance function approach is used to estimate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2, and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. The shadow prices are in a next step regressed on GDP per capita. The objective of the study is closely linked to hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curves. We conclude that the time series of the shadow prices from this approach can not be used to explain the EKCs found for Swedish emissions.<p> In paper [IV], we calculate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2, and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. The shadow prices are in a next step related to income, to explain the EKCs previously found for Swedish data on the three emissions. Newly constructed historical emission time series enable studying a single country's emission paths through increasing levels of economic activity. A directional distance function approach is used to estimate the industry's production process in order to calculate the opportunity costs of a reduction in the emissions. The time series of the shadow prices show support for EKCs for the Swedish industry. |
| Keywords: | Forest sector; Forest fuels; Dynamic factor demand; Adjustment costs; Economic growth; Pollution; Environmental Kuznets curve; Shadow price; Distance function |
| JEL: | L73 L78 O11 O13 Q41 Q42 Q51 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2005–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0661&r=agr |
| By: | Marian Rizov; |
| Abstract: | This paper is motivated by the fact that (part-time) individual farming is commonly observed among rural households in a number of transition economies but it is not clear prima facie if such resource allocation is optimal. A conceptual model of household labor allocation between individual farming and off-farm wage employment is developed. The model explicitly accounts for the role of household endowments in labor allocation as the analysis is conditioned on the status of factor markets. The hypotheses are empirically tested using 1998 data from a country-representative survey of rural households in Hungary, an advanced transition country, which only recently became EU member state. Results provide evidence that capital market imperfections still remain. Implications for the policies related to agricultural sector restructuring, employment and rural development are discussed. Classification- |
| Keywords: | households, individual farming, labor allocation, diversification, transition economies, international integration |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp038&r=agr |
| By: | Marian Rizov; |
| Abstract: | There are large differences across transition countries with respect to agricultural-sector performance and corresponding scope of farm restructuring and shift to individual farming. In this paper we analyze the impact of individualization on productivity growth within an augmented neo-classical growth model framework. This approach allows us to circumvent criticisms on the grounds of lack of theoretical and objective criteria for inclusion of explanatory variables. Furthermore, in the empirical analysis using a panel data covering 15 transition countries over the period 1990-2001 and applying a GMM-IV estimator we are able to control for the impact of various factors and the potential endogeneity of variables. Our estimation results are robust and support the view that the shift to individual farming, as well as the overall economic reforms, have positively contributed to the productivity growth in agriculture during the first decade of transition. Classification- |
| Keywords: | agriculture, individual farming, productivity, economic transition, international integration |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp039&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Luca Salvatici |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a summary measure of the Uruguay Round tariff reduction commitments in the European Union and the United States, using the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) as the tariff aggregator. We compute the index for agricultural commodity aggregates assuming a specific (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) functional form for import demand. The levels of the MTRI under the actual commitments of the Uruguay Round are computed and compared with two hypothetical cases, the Swiss Formula leading to a 36 percent average decrease in tariffs and a uniform 36 percent reduction of each tariff. This makes it possible to infer how reducing tariff dispersion would help improve market access in future trade agreements. Classification- |
| Keywords: | international agricultural trade; protection, tariffs and tariff factors |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp059&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean |
| Abstract: | An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalization in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labor market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies that have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developed countries with a high level of aggregation have been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalization. Regions like sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns group members. Classification- |
| Keywords: | CGE model, Doha Round, agriculture, tariff preferences, domestic support. |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp060&r=agr |
| By: | Alan Matthews; |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the case for special and differential (S&D) treatment for developing countries within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture and the particular instruments or exemptions it should contain. The S&D treatment currently allowed to developing countries in the Agreement and the use they have made of it is first described. The range of proposals put forward by developing countries (and by development NGOs in developed countries) is summarised, and the S&D provisions in the August 2004 Framework Agreement for Establishing Modalities in Agriculture are outlined. The reasons why developing countries want special and differential treatment under the AoA are discussed. Some of the main proposals in the Development Box are then reviewed in the light of the justifications presented by its proponents. The paper concludes that the potential exists in the Framework Agreement to take a significant step towards “operationally effective and meaningful provisions” for S&D treatment. While noting this positive outcome, the important objective for developing countries of gaining a reduction in the trade-distorting support and protection by developed countries should not be forgotten. Classification- |
| Keywords: | CGE model, Doha Round, agriculture, tariff preferences, domestic support. |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp061&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Sébastien Jean, Alan Matthews |
| Abstract: | Recent analyses suggest that the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on developing countries will be very uneven. Some simulations suggest that the effects of agricultural trade liberalization will be small, overall, and are likely to be negative for a significant number of developing countries. The Doha Round focuses on tariff issues, but these countries currently have practically duty-free access to European and North American markets under preferential regimes. Multilateral liberalization will erode the benefits of these preferences, which are presently rather well utilized in the agricultural sector. The main obstacles to the exports of sub-Saharan African and least developed countries appear to be in the non-tariff area (sanitary, phytosanitary standards) which increasingly originate from the private sector and are not dealt with under the Doha framework (traceability requirements, etc.). An agreement in Doha is unlikely to solve these problems and open large markets for the poorest countries. It might even increase their handicap relative to developing countries that are more advanced from a technical and commercial standpoint. While this is not an argument to give up multilateral liberalization, a more specific and differentiated treatment should be considered in WTO rules, and corrective measures should be implemented. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade, Liberalization, WTO |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp073&r=agr |
| By: | Loren Tauer |
| Abstract: | The Dixit entry/exit real option model, modified to accommodate a milk price support regime, was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. Results varied by farm size, but for the 500-cow farm the entry milk price is $19.09 and the exit milk price is $11.66 when farmers were allowed to continuously enter and exit the industry. With no option to ever return to dairy farming, the exit milk price falls to $10.00. |
| JEL: | G |
| Date: | 2005–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0504018&r=agr |
| By: | Kathrin Happe (Institute of Agricultural Development in Central & Eastern Europe) |
| Abstract: | The development of competitive and efficient agricultural structures has been one of the central goals of agricultural policy making in addition to ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers. To achieve these goals, the agricultural sector in most industrialised nations has long been the subject of government interventions. However, many agricultural policies have worked counteractively to these goals by creating distortions in the use of resources. Against this background, the emergence of new and innovative modelling methods such as agent- based models, in addition to ever-increasing computing capacities has offered new possibilities to model adjustment reactions and to quantify the impact of agricultural policies. This thesis takes up these new methodologies and applies them to the modelling and evaluation of agricultural policy impacts on regional structural change. At the centre of the thesis is the development of the spatial and dynamic simulation model of regional agricultural structures AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator). The core of AgriPoliS is the understanding of a regional agricultural structure as an agent-based system, i.e., a system of interacting heterogeneous agents. The thesis contributes to a deeper understanding of structural change dynamics and factors causing structural change. It is studied whether and to what extent policy changes can facilitate structural adjustment towards a more efficient and competitive agricultural structure. |
| Keywords: | agent-based modelling, structural change, agricultural policy, simulation, efficiency |
| JEL: | P Q Z |
| Date: | 2005–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0504011&r=agr |