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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan; Mia Teschner-Hofmann; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | Rising life expectancy and demographic change have increased the share of older workers, making their health and productivity central to aging societies. We study whether longer working lives translate into investments in work-related health before retirement. Exploiting a pension reform in Germany in a Regression Discontinuity Design, we show that women facing longer careers are more likely to apply for work-related rehabilitation, particularly those in poorer health or with weaker labor market attachment. Despite higher application and approval rates, this demand does not translate into higher rehabilitation completion. Together with intermediate outcomes, our findings are most consistent with capacity constraints in program delivery. |
| Keywords: | Rehabilitation, Aging Societies, Health Investments, Pension Reform |
| JEL: | H55 I12 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2179 |
| By: | Kim, Meeroo |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, Korea's household debt- to-GDP ratio has trended upward, reflecting greater incentives for asset accumulation amid rising life expectancy. Household debt has increased through different asset accumulation patterns across generations: older cohorts prepare for longer post- retirement years by building financial assets that supply funds, whereas younger cohorts borrow them mainly to acquire housing. However, this trajectory is forecast to reverse in the coming years as longevity gains slow and accelerating population aging reshape intergenerational financial flows. Maintaining stability in the short to medium term will require close coordination between prudent financial policies and non-financial reforms, such as improving labor market flexibility. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:343513 |
| By: | Priyanka Anand; Tran Thi Phu-Duyen; Sita Slavov |
| Abstract: | We examine how information affects the choice between Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Old-Age Insurance (OAI) benefits for people between 62 and full retirement age. We find that receiving an initial Social Security statement, which provides recipients with personalized estimated benefit amounts available from DI and OAI, increases the probability of applying for both programs among those with a work-limiting health condition or a low work ability index, and this response is concentrated among people who are further from full retirement age. The increase in DI applications is split between applications for DI only and applications for both programs. |
| JEL: | D83 H55 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35748 |
| By: | Ahmed Ación López; Carlos Vidal-Meliá |
| Abstract: | We develop an actuarially grounded NDC counterfactual to benchmark Spain’s pay-asyou- go defined-benefit pension system. Using MCVL administrative microdata for 2015– 2023, we reconstruct individual notional capital from contribution histories and compare it with the actuarial cost of DB entitlements for retirement, disability and survivorcontingent reversibility. Italy’s NDC experience serves as an institutional reference highlighting the need for explicit treatment of non-old-age contingencies. DB costs generally exceed NDC capital, revealing implicit transfers not captured in retirement-only assessments. Disability generates the largest deviations, while survivor reversibility adds contingent liabilities. Results support distinguishing contribution-based entitlements, contingent liabilities and redistributive effects. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-29 |
| By: | José Enrique Devesa; Inmaculada Domínguez; Borja Encinas; Robert Meneu |
| Abstract: | El Ageing Report es un informe trienal que publica la Comisión Europea en el que se proporcionan proyecciones a largo plazo del gasto en pensiones, en salud, en dependencia y en educación para todos los países de la UE. Nuestro principal objetivo en este trabajo es elaborar un indicador de sostenibilidad económica, financiera y actuarial del sistema de pensiones que se pueda calcular para todos los países de la UE, mayoritariamente con los datos del Ageing Report, y para cada año del periodo de proyección. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-07 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Sebastian Doerr; Daniel Rees |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) and robots have the potential to offset the macroeconomic consequences of an ageing workforce, but the ability to automate jobs depends on which industries are ageing. AI and robots substitute most readily for jobs in industries with younger workforces (eg finance), while older, high-employment industries (eg agriculture, health) have less scope for automation. A new ageing–automation scorecard for over 130 economies shows that some of the fastest-ageing economies may face more substantial challenges in easing demographic pressures through automation. |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:135 |
| By: | Raffaela Giordano (Bank of Italy); Luigi Infante (Bank of Italy); Andrea Neri (Bank of Italy); Giada Andrea Prete (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of population ageing on household portfolio choices in Italy, France, Germany, and Spain, drawing on HFCS data for the period 2010–2020. The findings indicate that the propensity to hold risky assets follows an inverted U-shaped pattern over the life cycle and is comparatively lower in Italy; this difference cannot be attributed to demographic factors but rather reflects structural determinants. However, when business wealth is incorporated into the definition of risky assets, cross-country disparities are substantially reduced, suggesting that Italian households are not less exposed to risk per se, but instead hold it through alternative asset compositions. |
| Keywords: | household portfolio, life cycle, financial wealth, non-financial wealth, risky assets |
| JEL: | C25 D14 D15 D31 G51 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1036_26 |
| By: | Saroja Adhikari (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Srinivas Goli; Samir KC; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | India’s ageing population relies heavily on kin, but conventional ageing measures do not capture older adults’ kin networks. We use demographic kinship models to estimate biological and selected affinal kin for a woman aged 65 in 17 Indian states covering 92% of the population, for rural and urban areas, from 1950 to 2100. We find between- and within-state inequalities in kin networks, similar to cross-country differences in South Asia. Kin networks become smaller and older, and working-age kin per older person (support ratio) declines faster than total kin. States reach low kin support ratios decades apart. The support ratio in urban Kerala is expected to fall below one by 2035, but Madhya Pradesh does not reach this level until 2050. Urban Madhya Pradesh is expected to have about 22 kin per woman in 2080, similar to urban Kerala in 2026. However, Madhya Pradesh is projected to have a support ratio of 0.64 in 2080, compared with 1.21 in Kerala in 2020. A male-biased sex ratio at birth associated with son preference has created a deficit in working-age daughters, reaching 10% in Punjab and Haryana around 2040 despite an assumed SRB of 1.05 after 2026. Yet having more sons than daughters does not translate proportionately into more daughters-in-law, traditionally expected to provide care. Our data show 0.6-0.7 daughters-in-law per son in urban Punjab and Kerala. These changes reshape the demographic basis of family support and highlight the need to strengthen formal care systems and redistribute support equitably across kin and genders. |
| Keywords: | India, ageing, kinship, projections |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-040 |
| By: | Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola (WZB - Social Science Research Center Berlin); Jessen, Jonas (WZB - Social Science Research Center Berlin); Ong, Pinchuan (National University of Singapore); Pan, Jessica (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of −0.65–close to the quasi-experimental estimate of −0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners’ own reports. |
| Keywords: | marginal propensity to earn, pension reform, hypothetical scenarios |
| JEL: | J22 H55 D84 J26 D10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18944 |
| By: | Hirakawa, Marie (Nihon University); Nagase, Nobuko (Otsuma Women’s University); Usui, Emiko (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Japan's 2016 expansion of employees' social insurance coverage affected women's employment and working hours. At firms with 501 or more employees, the reform lowered the prescribed weekly-hours threshold for mandatory pension and health-insurance coverage from about 30 to 20 hours. Using the Labour Force Survey's rotating panel, we study one-year transitions among women aged 45–59 initially working 20–29 nonregular hours, comparing large firms subject to the reform with smaller firms in a difference-in-differences design. Among married women—likely exempt from contributions before the reform as dependent spouses—the probability of remaining at 20–29 hours fell by 7.55 percentage points, while moves below 20 hours and to 30–39 hours rose by 4.57 and 2.66 points, respectively. Among unmarried women—more likely to have paid their own pension contributions—moves to 40–49 hours rose by 11.77 points. Reductions below 20 hours were largest among married women with university-educated or high-earning husbands. Triple-difference estimates show little change in wages or bonuses. Coverage expansion can thus shift hours in opposite directions, depending on workers' prior insurance status and household circumstances. |
| Keywords: | social insurance, Employees’ Pension Insurance, part-time employment, labor supply, married women, Japan |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J31 J32 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18919 |
| By: | Congxin He; Lilian Hu; Yue Kuen Kwok; Yifan Ye |
| Abstract: | A substantial body of empirical evidence suggests that stochastic mortality models ignoring long range dependence tend to underestimate life expectancy, which may lead to profound implications for pension schemes and funding arrangements. This paper addresses the modelling of stochastic mortality via a mixture of a fractional L\'evy process and standard Brownian motion. Our stochastic mortality model exhibits nice analytical tractability in actuarial valuations and flexibility in the choice of underlying L\'evy specifications. The long range dependence feature embedded in our stochastic mortality model is well reflected in our empirical studies on the mortality shocks during World War II and COVID-19. For efficient numerical pricing of longevity derivatives, we construct an effective singular value decomposition approximation scheme to overcome the computational challenges arising from the non-Markovian nature of the fractional L\'evy process. Truncation errors in singular value decomposition approximation can be reduced by an effective residual correction scheme. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.21232 |
| By: | Jerônimo Muniz (Federal Unversity of Minas Gerais) |
| Abstract: | Reliable demographic analysis in settings with incomplete or imperfect data requires flexible and transparent estimation and projection tools. This paper presents an integrated suite of Stata-based methods for estimating mortality and fertility and for projecting populations by age, sex, and additional characteristics. First, I revisit intercensal approaches to mortality estimation, including census-based, death distribution, and iterative methods, and introduce tools for constructing single-decrement life tables and estimating age-specific net migration using two population age distributions and intercensal deaths. Second, I describe an enhanced implementation of the own-children method for estimating age-specific fertility rates, providing graphical summaries of recent fertility patterns, weighted subgroup estimates, and a wide range of reproductive indicators derived from biological mother-child links. Third, I present a matrix-based projection framework for forecasting population dynamics under specified schedules of fertility, mortality, and migration, supporting one- and two-sex models as well as multistate classifications such as region, race, or health status. Empirical illustrations draw on census and register data from Vietnam, Brazil, and Sweden, demonstrating applicability across diverse demographic contexts. Together, these methods offer a coherent and extensible toolkit for demographic estimation and projection using standard data sources. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:biep26:05 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En los últimos años, la Administración española ha realizado un importante esfuerzo para mejorar y documentar las herramientas de modelización que utiliza para proyectar los gastos e ingresos del sistema público de pensiones y analizar el impacto de posibles reformas normativas. Con el ánimo de contribuir al esfuerzo colectivo para mejorar la calidad de estos instrumentos y su accesibilidad para un público lo más amplio posible, en la presente nota se ofrece en primer lugar una breve exposición de los modelos relevantes que busca ayudar al lector a entender tanto su lógica como sus limitaciones. Seguidamente, se avanzan algunas recomendaciones para reforzar la documentación que se ofrece a los lectores y para seguir mejorando el diseño de estos modelos de una forma que aumente su utilidad para el análisis de los efectos de cambios de política. Se propone, en particular, 1) documentar en mucho más detalle cómo se construyen las estimaciones del impacto de la reforma sobre los patrones de jubilación y 2) priorizar el desarrollo de modelos de equilibrio con comportamiento endógeno. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-08 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania, NBER, and CEPR); Patrick Norrick (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236 countries since 1950: the common component peaked in 1978, and what drives fertility down today are country-specific trends, 219 of them negative and not one leveling off. None of the commonly cited mechanisms can account for this pattern, so we offer a conjecture: modernity itself, which makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. Children come in integers, so it takes very little to move a cohort’s fertility rate from 1.8 to 1.3. And nothing in an economy pushes fertility back to 2.1. We close with the main economic consequences, in particular slow growth. |
| Keywords: | fertility decline; demographic transition; population aging; economic growth;labor force; population projections |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O40 E24 O11 |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-016 |