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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Selahattin Imrohoroglu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term implications of demographic aging for public pension sustainability, using population projections from both international and national sources. Drawing on the 2024–2100 United Nations World Population Prospects (UN WPP) as well as forecasts from the Social Security Administration (SSA), U.S. Census Bureau (CB), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and Japans National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), I document substantial cross-country variation in projected old-age dependency ratios. In addition, there is a large range of forecasts produced by different assumptions on fertility and immigration. I calculate a key forward-looking metric—the number of full retirement age (FRA) postponements required to maintain the 2023 dependency ratio through 2100. I show that advanced economies like Japan, having aged much earlier, face more modest required adjustments, while many middle-income countries will need much sharper policy shifts. I further demonstrate the sensitivity of unfunded pension liabilities to alternative demographic projections in the U.S. and Japan, and quantify the impact of Japans 2004 macroeconomic slide reform on long-run fiscal sustainability. The results underscore the importance of proactive pension reform—particularly in developing economies entering demographic transition with limited time and institutional and fiscal capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:25-018e |
| By: | Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Daniel Carroll; Sewon Hur; Braden Strackman |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use an overlapping generations-standard incomplete markets model to quantitatively investigate the long-run implications of Koreas demographic changes and policy reforms. Importantly, our quantitative model endogenizes the retirement decision and matches the elasticity of retirement to wealth. Optimal policy likely combines reforms such as increasing the retirement age, higher taxes, or changes to retirement benefits. We use the model calibrated to Koreas economy and demography as a quantitative laboratory to investigate two policy scenarios: increasing taxes or decreasing benefits. While decreasing benefits leads to great long run activity, it comes at the cost of lower average welfare, particularly for retirees. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:25-017e |
| By: | Philipp Warum (WIFO); Fabrizio Culotta (University of Milano-Bicocca); Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger (WIFO); Thomas Horvath; Thomas Leoni (University of Applied Sciences Wiener Neustadt); Pauline Pohl (WIFO); Martin Spielauer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | As populations age, the sustainability of long-term care systems increasingly depends on the availability of informal care, particularly from partners. This paper addresses the question of how much care we may expect partners to provide in the future by projecting demand for long-term care (LTC), the care supply mix based on current patterns, and the resulting care gaps up to 2070. Using a comparative dynamic microsimulation model, we contrast the results for Austria and Italy, two countries at very different stages in the ageing process and with pronounced institutional differences. Our results suggest that delayed widowhood due to improvements in mortality is a mitigating factor for the increased need for formal care in ageing societies, although it can only offset this increase to a limited extent. Even under optimistic assumptions, potential care gaps substantially increase in both countries, primarily due to demographic change. The size of these gaps is influenced by institutional settings, partnership patterns and gains in longevity, but no scenario reverses the overall upward trend. These findings emphasize the need for comprehensive LTC reforms that extend beyond merely promoting informal care and highlight the necessity for substantial investment in formal care infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Population ageing, Long-term care, Spousal caregiving, Care gap, Projections, Dynamic microsimulation |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:709 |
| By: | Sha Jiang (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Haili Liang; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Objective: Population aging and shrinking family structures in China are placing unprecedented strain on traditional family-based systems of old-age support. This study develops and applies a capital-based caregiving framework that integrates human capital with the structural dimension of social capital (i.e., kinship networks) to assess the caregiving dynamics within families. We provide the first long-term projection of family caregiving dynamics in China, modeling how rising education--by improving health--can simultaneously enhance caregiving capacity and moderate care needs amid declining kin availability. Methods: We used formal demographic kinship models to project the number and age composition of a broad range of kin for older adults in China from 1950 to 2100, capturing kinship structure as the structural dimension of social capital. Educational attainment and education-specific health gradients were then integrated to model the human capital of each kin member. These dimensions were synthesized into novel health-adjusted kin-dependency ratios to assess caregiving dynamics over time. Results: We find that while the number of working-age kin declines substantially across cohorts, rising education and health among both working-age and older kin enhance caregiving capacity and reduce care needs. Under a rapid educational expansion scenario, the health-adjusted kin-dependency ratio is projected to be approximately 10% lower by 2100 compared to a stalled education scenario, indicating a substantial buffering effect of human capital on aggregate caregiving burdens. Conclusions: Human capital investment, particularly in education, serve as a powerful, though partial, demographic buffer against the family caregiving challenges posed by population aging and shrinking family size. These findings demonstrate that overlooking the human capital composition of kin leads to overly pessimistic assessments of family caregiving capacity. The capital-based framework developed here offers a new perspective for integrating demographic and resource-based approaches to family support, with implications for aging societies beyond China. |
| Keywords: | China |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-021 |
| By: | Dino Francisco Córdoba Lache (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Los sistemas de pensiones de capitalización individual enfrentan desafíos globales en la oferta y demanda de productos de retiro de carácter vitalicio. En respuesta, se han propuesto distintos esquemas de desacumulación encaminados a fomentar su participación dentro de las distintas modalidades de retiro. Por medio de un conjunto de simulaciones de Montecarlo, el presente trabajo evalúa cuantitativamente los esquemas de Tontinas Modernas y Separación Vertical en el mercado de productos de retiro de Colombia usando datos anonimizados del Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad. Los resultados de las simulaciones muestran que las Tontinas Modernas elevan en promedio las anualidades recibidas por los afiliados en un 9, 8% y 9, 2 %, y reducen su costo fiscal asociado en 4, 1% y 4, 7% para hombres y mujeres, respectivamente. Mientras que la Separación Vertical - esquema mixto entre las Tontinas Modernas y los seguros de longevidad- logra mitigar la alta volatilidad que presentan los créditos derivados de las dinámicas de mortalidad de la cohorte. Estos resultados son un valioso insumo para intervenciones políticas en el sistema pensional colombiano, considerando aspectos financieros, fiscales y de bienestar social.<p> Individual capitalization pension systems face global challenges in the supply and demand of lifetime retirement products. In response, various payout schemes have been proposed to promote their adoption across different retirement modalities. Using a set of Monte Carlo simulations, this paper quantitatively evaluates the Modern Tontine and Vertical Separation schemes in the Colombian retirement products market, based on anonymized data from the Individual Savings with Solidarity Regime. The simulation results show that Modern Tontines increase the average annuity received by affiliates by 9.8% and 9.2 %, and reduce the associated fiscal cost by 4.1% and 4.7% for men and women, respectively. Meanwhile, the Vertical Separation scheme—a hybrid model combining Modern Tontines and longevity insurance—effectively mitigates the high volatility in benefits derived from cohort mortality dynamics. These findings provide valuable input for policymaking in the Colombian pension system, considering financial, fiscal, and social welfare aspects. |
| Keywords: | Pension Systems, Insurance Market, Life Annuities, Annuity Puzzle |
| Date: | 2025–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021422 |
| By: | Javier Olivera (National Bank of Belgium; and Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research); Jan De Mulder (National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | The present study analyses the impact of ageing on wealth inequality in fifteen European countries by exploiting the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for the years 2010 and 2021. For this aim, we use recentered influence regressions to estimate influence of ageing and other key covariates on the Gini index of net wealth and wealth components. When analysing the overall wealth of the countries, no clear impact of ageing on net wealth inequality is found. However, ageing appears to contribute to rising inequality when its main componentsâ۠real assets, financial assets, and debtâ۠are examined. The evidence suggests that the magnitude of the effect has increased over time. When considering individual countries separately, ageing appears to have an increasing impact on net wealth inequality, as well as on the inequality of its main components in countries experiencing more advanced population ageing, such as Portugal, Spain, and Italy. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, Wealth, Inequality, Europe, RIF regressions |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2025-685 |
| By: | Javier Olivera (National Bank of Belgium; and Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research); Jan De Mulder (National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | The present study analyses the impact of ageing on wealth inequality in fifteen European countries by exploiting the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for the years 2010 and 2021. For this aim, we use recentered influence regressions to estimate influence of ageing and other key covariates on the Gini index of net wealth and wealth components. When analysing the overall wealth of the countries, no clear impact of ageing on net wealth inequality is found. However, ageing appears to contribute to rising inequality when its main componentsâ۠real assets, financial assets, and debtâ۠are examined. The evidence suggests that the magnitude of the effect has increased over time. When considering individual countries separately, ageing appears to have an increasing impact on net wealth inequality, as well as on the inequality of its main components in countries experiencing more advanced population ageing, such as Portugal, Spain, and Italy. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, Wealth, Inequality, Europe, RIF regressions |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2025-585 |
| By: | Gnewikow, Myriam; Berghammer, Anja |
| Abstract: | Demographic developments mean that a growing proportion of employees in public administration belong to the group of older employees. This qualitative study examines how managers can design their strategies to meet their specific needs - with the aim of promoting motivation, employability and retention until retirement. The term 'older employees' is used descriptively and not judgmentally, it refers to employees with many years of professional experience, often in a phase of growing reflection on their remaining working life, the transfer of knowledge and new professional roles. The study is based on seven guided interviews, five of which were conducted with administrative employees over the age of 50 and two with managers. The qualitative content analysis reveals five central topics, including appreciation, performance expectations and reflection on one's own role. One thing is clear: Older employees particularly appreciate it when decisions are transparently justified, their experience is included and development discussions are individualised. At the same time, there are barriers, such as a lack of feedback loops, implicit images of age or a lack of time in day-to-day management. The study derives practical recommendations from this, e.g. that leadership should enable regular, context-related communication, actively organise feedback and recognition and address development opportunities individually, regardless of age, but in an age- conscious manner. In addition, opportunities are needed to reflect on one's own leadership behaviour as well as structural freedom for dialogue-oriented personnel management. Many of the findings can also be transferred to private sector organisations, although contextual differences must be taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Age-conscious leadership, public administration, needs of older employees, leadership communication, appreciation, expectations, demographic change |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhhr:321857 |
| By: | Laia Bosque-Mercader; José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Sergi Jiménez; Judit Vall-Castelló |
| Abstract: | España, al igual que otros países desarrollados, enfrenta un proceso acelerado de envejecimiento poblacional debido al aumento de la esperanza de vida. Sin embargo, la participación de los trabajadores mayores en el mercado laboral no ha evolucionado en la misma proporción. Este estudio estima la capacidad adicional de trabajo de las personas de entre 55 y 69 años en España entre 1977 y 2018, utilizando la tasa de empleo de la Encuesta de Población Activa y la tasa de mortalidad de la Human Mortality Database como indicador de salud. Los resultados muestran que los trabajadores tienen una gran capacidad adicional de trabajo latente en edades avanzadas, en torno a los 8 años para los hombres y 6 años para las mujeres desde finales de la década pasada, respecto a la situación a principio de la etapa democrática. Ante el desafio del envejecimiento, es clave aumentar la participación laboral de los mayores. Reformas que permitan una jubilación más fléxible y gradual podrían incentivar la prolongación de la vida activa, beneficiando tanto a los trabajadores como a la sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-14 |
| By: | Richiardi, Matteo; Bronka, Patryk; Popova, Daria; Burdett, Ashley; Vartuzova, Mariia |
| Abstract: | This report documents the application of the SimPaths dynamic microsimulation framework – originally developed with reference to the UK – to the Italian context. The report describes model structure and adaptation with respect to the UK template, the input data used, and discusses specification and parameter estimates for all the statistical processes included in the model, with respect to the first public release (July 2025). Validation of the model is performed by comparing simulations started in 2011 with observed survey data for the period 2011-2021, with overall good results. The report concludes with an application to the effects of population ageing on economic dependency ratios and fiscal sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:cempwp:cempa8-25 |
| By: | Gabor Petnehazi; Laith Al Shaggah; Jozsef Gall; Bernadett Aradi |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential of zero-shot time series forecasting, an innovative approach leveraging pre-trained foundation models, to forecast mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning. We evaluate two state-of-the-art foundation models, TimesFM and CHRONOS, alongside traditional and machine learning-based methods across three forecasting horizons (5, 10, and 20 years) using data from 50 countries and 111 age groups. In our investigations, zero-shot models showed varying results: while CHRONOS delivered competitive shorter-term forecasts, outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA and the Lee-Carter model, TimesFM consistently underperformed. Fine-tuning CHRONOS on mortality data significantly improved long-term accuracy. A Random Forest model, trained on mortality data, achieved the best overall performance. These findings underscore the potential of zero-shot forecasting while highlighting the need for careful model selection and domain-specific adaptation. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.13521 |
| By: | Thomas Newham (Nottingham Trent University); Tim R.L. Fry (Nottingham Trent University) |
| Abstract: | Esports has emerged as a significant facet of global culture and the creative economy, rivalling traditional sports in scale and economic impact. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the demographic and economic dimensions of competitive gaming, exploring its evolution as a cultural phenomenon. We investigate the role of cultural and geographic contexts in shaping the esports ecosystem, examining how regional preferences and socio-economic factors influence player representation and market dynamics. The global dispersion of esports players highlights the industry's ability to transcend traditional cultural boundaries, fostering diverse participation while reflecting unique regional characteristics. By analysing data from 846 players across sixty-five countries, the study uncovers patterns of cultural consumption and the economic impacts of esports in varying global contexts. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of esports as both a localised and globalised cultural phenomenon with significant economic implications. The study employs fixed-effects regression models, to investigate player earnings trajectories, geographic diversity, and age-related career dynamics. Key findings include the identification of a non-linear relationship between age and earnings, with peak earnings around the mid-twenties, a decline in the mid-thirties, and a subsequent rise post-thirty-five, arguably driven by a "Superstar Effect." Additionally, the study explores how cultural factors influence the sustained success of older players in strategic and cognitively demanding games such as StarCraft and chess. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about career longevity in esports and offer nuanced insights into the interplay of talent, notoriety, and cultural capital. |
| Keywords: | Esports, Cultural Economics, Labour Markets, Demographics, Digital Transformation, Superstar Effect |
| JEL: | L83 J24 Z10 L86 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-04-2025 |
| By: | Cecchini, Simone; Comelatto, Pablo; Holz, Raúl; Kang, Seongji; Paes, Yaël |
| Abstract: | Este documento analiza las implicancias económicas del acelerado envejecimiento poblacional en América Latina y el Caribe, destacando tanto los desafíos para el crecimiento económico, el mercado laboral y la sostenibilidad de las políticas sociales, como las oportunidades de impulso a diversos sectores económicos que este fenómeno representa para la región. A partir de datos demográficos y económicos, se examina la transformación estructural en curso, con especial énfasis en el aumento de la población de 65 años y más. El estudio revisa los enfoques conceptuales que permiten comprender las diversas dimensiones del envejecimiento en relación con la producción, el consumo y las transferencias intergeneracionales, tales como la economía plateada, la economía de la longevidad y la economía generacional. Se identifican sectores con potencial de crecimiento económico en un contexto de envejecimiento, como la salud, los cuidados, la industria farmacéutica, el sector financiero, la tecnología, el turismo y la vivienda adaptada. A través del análisis del bono demográfico y del uso de la metodología de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias, el documento evalúa los impactos proyectados del envejecimiento sobre el crecimiento económico y destaca el papel de la productividad y la participación laboral —en especial de mujeres y personas mayores— como factores clave para mitigar estos efectos. Asimismo, se examinan políticas públicas innovadoras en la República de Corea y otros países del mundo, que pueden servir de referencia para América Latina y el Caribe. El documento concluye que aprovechar las oportunidades económicas del envejecimiento requiere tomar en cuenta el cambio demográfico en las políticas públicas, invertir en salud, protección social y cuidados, así como reconocer los derechos y aportes de las personas mayores, desde un enfoque de ciclo de vida. |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:82262 |