nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒07‒15
fourteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Conditioning public pensions on health: effects on capital accumulation and welfare By Giorgio Fabbri; Marie-Louise Leroux; Paolo Melindi-Ghidi; Willem Sas
  2. Spillover Effects of Old-Age Pension Across Generations: Family Labor Supply and Child Outcomes By Katja M. Kaufmann; Yasemin Özdemir; Han Ye
  3. Enhancing productivity and growth in an ageing society: Key mechanisms and policy options By Christophe André; Peter Gal; Matthias Schief
  4. The Role of Family Support in the Well-Being of Older People: Evidence from Malaysia and Viet Nam By Rodgers, Yana van der Meulen; Zveglich, Jr., Joseph; Ali , Khadija; Xue , Hanna
  5. The Influence of Occupational Licensing on Workforce Transitions to Retirement By Morris M. Kleiner; Yun Taek Oh
  6. Early-Life Circumstances and Racial Disparities in Cognition for Older Americans: The Importance of Educational Quality and Experiences By Lin, Zhuoer; Ye, Justin; Allore, Heather; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi
  7. Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts By Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Christian Schmieder
  8. Accounting for Social Security claiming behavior By Svetlana Pashchenko; Ponpoje Porapakkarm
  9. Becoming a First-time Entrepreneur in 40s and Older: Lessons from Survival Analysis By Ondřej Dvouletý; Ivana Svobodová; Nina Bočková; Jarmila Duháček Šebestová
  10. Consideraciones y propuestas para la expansión de la cobertura de pensiones entre los trabajadores independientes en el Perú By Bernal Lobato, Noelia
  11. Impact des stratégies de maintien à domicile publiques sur l'efficience du système de santé : une étude comparative entre pays européens By Olivier Baly; Frédéric Kletz; Barrubès Joan; Mégevand Valérie; Bazin Antoine
  12. Evaluating long-term care policies in a decentralised context: models of justice, evaluation criteria and comparison By Cécile Bourreau-Dubois; Clémence Thébaut
  13. Generalizing research based in a Seattle integrated health delivery system to all older adults in the region By Laura Gibbons
  14. Maintien des séniors dans l'emploi en Europe. Quel bilan face au défi posé par le recul de l'âge de la retraite ? By Gilles Le Garrec; Vincent Touzé

  1. By: Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Marie-Louise Leroux (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Willem Sas (University of Stirling)
    Abstract: This paper develops an overlapping generations model that links a public health system to a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. It relies on two assumptions. First, the health system directly finances curative health spending on the elderly. Second, public pensions partially depend on health status by introducing a component indexed to society's average level of old-age disability. Reducing the average disability rate in the economy then lowers pension benefits as the need to finance long-term care services also drops. We study the effects of introducing such a ‘comprehensive' Social Security system on individual decisions, capital accumulation, and welfare. We first show that health investments can boost savings and capital accumulation under certain conditions. Second, if individuals are sufficiently concerned with their health when old, it is optimal to introduce a health-dependent pension system, as this will raise social welfare compared to a system where pensions are not tied to the society's average level of old-age disability. Our analysis thus highlights an important policy recommendation: making PAYG pension schemes partially health-dependent can be beneficial to society.
    Keywords: Curative Health Investments, PAYG Pension System, Disability, Overlapping Generations, Long-term Care
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Katja M. Kaufmann; Yasemin Özdemir; Han Ye
    Abstract: We study the impact of grandparental retirement decisions on family members’ labor supply and child outcomes by exploiting a Dutch pension reform and a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design. We find that a one-hour increase in grandmothers’ hours worked causes their adult daughters with young children to work 40 minutes less. Daughters without children, with older children and sons/daughters-in-law are not affected. Examining the reform impacts on grandchildren’s test scores, we find positive effects on children aged 4-7, who experienced a substitution from grandparental to maternal care. We also show negative effects for children aged 8-12, for whom grandparental childcare was substituted for by formal or no care.
    Keywords: spillover effects, retirement, grandparental childcare, maternal labor supply, child development
    JEL: J13 J22 J26 I38 D64
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Christophe André; Peter Gal; Matthias Schief
    Abstract: The increase in human longevity is a major achievement, which brings individual well-being and strong contributions to society, but population ageing also generates challenges. This paper documents demographic trends in OECD countries, highlighting that ageing today largely reflects past fertility, longevity, and migration developments. Policies have moderate or delayed impacts on population ageing, hence they should also focus on adapting to ongoing demographic trends. The paper quantifies ageing’s potential impacts on labour supply and GDP per capita, showing that the extension of working lives as longevity rises could mitigate, but not completely offset, the negative effects of ageing on employment. It also examines how ageing may affect productivity through various micro and macroeconomic mechanisms. Finally, it provides policy directions for addressing the ageing challenge, through supporting healthy ageing, boosting employment, job quality and labour mobility in all age groups, and promoting older workers’ productivity by further developing lifelong learning and fostering an age-friendly management culture.
    Keywords: Ageing, demography, economic growth, Fertility, health, labour market policy, lifelong learning, longevity, migration, productivity
    JEL: F22 I18 J08 J11 J13 J14 Q47
    Date: 2024–06–14
  4. By: Rodgers, Yana van der Meulen (Rutgers University); Zveglich, Jr., Joseph (Asian Development Bank); Ali , Khadija (Asian Development Bank); Xue , Hanna (Rutgers University)
    Abstract: Demographics in Malaysia and Viet Nam are evolving rapidly, potentially disrupting traditional family support to older people. We estimate a set of Poisson random effects models with panel data from the Malaysia Ageing and Retirement Survey and the Viet Nam Aging Survey to analyze how living arrangements, marital status, and support from children influence the mental and physical health of older people. In Malaysia, having living children plays an important protective role for both mental and physical health, while living with a son appears to have a protective effect for physical health. Results are similar for Viet Nam, except older women, who are at greater risk of mental and physical health problems, appear to enjoy a greater protective effect for their mental health from a child living nearby than do men. Our analysis underscores the importance of social safety nets for the health of senior citizens living alone.
    Keywords: mental health; well-being; physical health; depression; gender; women; aging
    JEL: I14 J16 O53
    Date: 2024–06–21
  5. By: Morris M. Kleiner; Yun Taek Oh
    Abstract: Ways of leaving the labor force has been an understudied aspect of labor market outcomes. Labor market institutions such as occupational licensing may influence how individuals transition to retirement. When and how workers transition from career jobs to full retirement may contribute to pre- and post-retirement well-being. Previous investigations of retirement pathways focused on the patterns and outcomes of retirement transitions, yet the influence of occupational licensing on retirement transition has not been analyzed. In this study, we use the Current Population Survey and Survey of Income and Program Participation to investigate how occupational licensing influences American later-career workers’ choice of retirement pathways. Our results show that licensed workers are less likely to choose to change careers but more likely to reduce work hours in transitioning out of the workforce. These results are consistent with the findings that licensed workers receive more benefits in the form of preferable retirement options, suggesting that these workers tend to have higher wages, benefits, and flexibility even toward the end of their careers.
    Keywords: Public policy; Retirement plans; Occupational licensing
    JEL: J44 J32 J48
    Date: 2024–04–17
  6. By: Lin, Zhuoer; Ye, Justin; Allore, Heather; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi
    Abstract: Given the critical role of neurocognitive development in early life, this study assesses how racial differences in early-life circumstances are collectively and individually associated with racial disparities in late-life cognition. Leveraging uniquely rich information on life history from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for non-Hispanic White (White) and non-Hispanic Black (Black) Americans 50 years or older, we employ the Blinder-Oaxaca method to decompose racial gaps in cognitive outcomes into early-life educational experiences, cohort, regional, financial, health, trauma, family relationship, demographic and genetic factors. Overall, differences in early-life circumstances are associated with 61.5% and 82.3% of the racial disparities in cognitive score and impairment, respectively. Early-life educational experience is associated with 35.2% of the disparities in cognitive score and 48.6% in cognitive impairment. Notably, school racial segregation (all segregated schooling before college) is associated with 28.8%-39.7% of the racial disparities in cognition. Policies that improve educational equity have the potential to reduce racial disparities in cognition into older ages. Clinicians may leverage early-life circumstances to promote the screening, prevention, and interventions of cognitive impairment more efficiently, thereby promoting health equity.
    Keywords: Early Life Circumstances, Life Course, School Segregation, Quality of Education, Racial Disparity, Cognition
    JEL: J15 I14 J13 J14 I20 H75
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Christian Schmieder
    Abstract: We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
    Keywords: Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability
    Date: 2024–06–14
  8. By: Svetlana Pashchenko (University of Georgia, Athens, USA); Ponpoje Porapakkarm (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: Social Security benefit claiming is highly concentrated at two ages, 62 and the full retirementage, which is hard to explain by the program’s incentives. We study claiming and labor supply decisions in a structural framework and provide three main findings. First, we show that claiming behavior can be well explained by a parsimonious life- cycle model with fully rational agents. The two key mechanisms are(i) the strong unwillingness to hold annuities, (ii) the effects of the earnings test. Second, we show that current rules distort claiming and labor supply decisions, and eliminating these distortions results in large welfare gains. Finally, we show that claiming decisions can be used to sharpen the identification of important preference parameters.
    Keywords: SocialSecurity, Retirement, Annuities, ConsumptionandSaving, Life-Cycle Model
    Date: 2023–06
  9. By: Ondřej Dvouletý (Department of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business Administration, Prague University of Economics and Business.); Ivana Svobodová (Department of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business Administration, Prague University of Economics and Business.); Nina Bočková (Department of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business Administration, Prague University of Economics and Business.); Jarmila Duháček Šebestová (Department of Business Economics and Management, School of Business Administration, Silesian University in Opava.)
    Abstract: This article aims to understand better a specific group of first-time entrepreneurs starting a business at the age of 40 years and older (associated in the literature with the term "third age" or "silver age"), often experiencing career shocks or feeling a need to change their working lives and habits. The research explores the situation in the small, open Central European economy – the Czech Republic. It is based on extensive business register data covering the years 2010–2023, allowing first-time entrepreneurs within this age group to be captured. These individual-level data, combined with information from other sources, created a dataset of 178, 388 first-time entrepreneurs aged 40+ by the time of starting their business. These were used to study their characteristics and to analyse factors shaping their business survival. We found that, on average, 12, 857 individuals aged 40+ join entrepreneurship for the first time annually; their characteristics differ in terms of age, gender, sectoral orientation, region of doing business, and education. The results from the Cox-Hazard survival analysis support the importance of these factors, highlighting, for example, that females had higher chances of closing their business activity, and the likelihood of closing the business increases with age. This article uniquely addresses the population of third-age entrepreneurs in a specific country context. Becoming an entrepreneur at the third age might be an opportunity to change working habits, leave employment, and enhance work-life balance through an entrepreneurial career pathway. This is important, especially in the context of population ageing and increased life length expectancy, allowing individuals to stay economically active longer.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, First-time Entrepreneur, Third Age, Silver Age, 40+ population, Czech Republic, SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth.
    JEL: L26 J16 J14
    Date: 2024–06–13
  10. By: Bernal Lobato, Noelia
    Abstract: El presente documento busca situar el problema de la expansión de la cobertura entre los trabajadores independientes —una población con altos niveles de exclusión en la protección social contributiva— en el sistema de pensiones del Perú. Se proponen tres políticas para aumentar la participación de estos trabajadores: afiliación automática al sistema, reglamentación de pensiones sociales y difusión de pensiones proporcionales, junto con reformas administrativas y tecnológicas para mejorar dicha cobertura. Se plantea que estas políticas, además de incrementar la cobertura previsional en el país, fortalecerían la sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones.
    Date: 2024–05–30
  11. By: Olivier Baly (Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Frédéric Kletz (Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Barrubès Joan (Antares Consulting); Mégevand Valérie (imad); Bazin Antoine (imad)
    Abstract: With the acceleration of the ambulatory shift, homecare services have become an essential component of healthcare systems, especially for the elderly, who are their primary beneficiaries. However, how the management of those services impact healthcare systems remains an open research question. The aim of this study, carried out in partnership with Geneva homecare services, is to examine whether the management of home care services by a public institution induces a significant difference in elderly people's hospitalization, institutionalization, use of homecare services, and healthy life expectancy. To this end, we compare the means of those variables, using the latest Eurostat data available (2019), between a group of predominantly public European countries (n=16) and a group of predominantly private European countries (n=10). Our results indicate that the public management of homecare, as developped and implemented by Geneva homecare services, is associated with a lower rate of hospitalization in the elderly. This finding suggests that further investigation is needed on the clinical and organizational practices that may explain this outcome.
    Abstract: L'accélération du virage ambulatoire fait des services d'aide et de soins à domicile une composante essentielle des systèmes de santé, surtout pour les personnes âgées, premières bénéficiaires. Pourtant, l'impact de la gestion de ces services sur les systèmes de santé demeure peu étudié. Ce travail, mené dans le cadre d'une étude du modèle Genevois de maintien à domicile, vise à examiner si le déploiement par le service public d'une politique de maintien à domicile induit une différence dans le recours des personnes âgées aux soins hospitaliers, à l'institutionnalisation, aux prestations domiciliaires, ainsi qu'en termes d'espérance de vie en bonne santé. À cette fin, nous comparons les moyennes de ces variables à l'aide des dernières données Eurostat (2019) dans un groupe de pays européens à dominante publique (n=16) et dans un groupe de pays européens à dominante privée (n=10). Nos résultats indiquent que la gestion publique du maintien à domicile, telle que voulue par le politique et déployée par l'institution Genevoise de maintien à domicile, est associée à un moindre recours des personnes âgées à l'hospitalisation complète et invitent à investiguer les pratiques organisationnelles et cliniques qui peuvent expliquer ce moindre recours.
    Keywords: soins aux personnes âgées, maintien à domicile, gestion publique, IMAD (institution Genevoise de maintien à domicile), efficience du système de santé.
    Date: 2024–07–04
  12. By: Cécile Bourreau-Dubois (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Clémence Thébaut (NET - Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale - CHU Limoges - Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - GEIST - Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, UNILIM - Université de Limoges)
    Abstract: The EQUIDEC research project aims to study the conditions for evaluating public policies in terms of territorial equity when they are partially decentralized, taking as a case study policies relating to dependent elderly people. The question is under what conditions the central government can impose a normative framework on the départements, through the evaluation of local policies. The principle of decentralization aims to allow each local authority to pursue its own objectives, in accordance with the democratically expressed wishes of the local population, within a framework set by the central state. In this context, should we set a national objective and evaluate local policies against it, or should we let each département set its own objectives and adjust the evaluation accordingly? A first family of solutions proposes to articulate different levels of evaluation, depending on whether we take the perspective of the central government or that of the départements. The second family of solutions groups together theories of justice that are compatible with variable local decisions.
    Keywords: Theory of justice, Decentralization, Territorial equity
    Date: 2023–05
  13. By: Laura Gibbons (University of Washington)
    Abstract: The Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study is a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Washington members ages 65 plus. We want to know how well decades of ACT data represent all older adults currently alive in the Seattle Metropolitan Region and how well findings transport from ACT to the regional population. This talk will focus on the transport process and the code I have posted to do this. I will demonstrate the use of participation weights that incorporate the probability someone in the Seattle Metropolitan Region would be included in ACT. As examples, we will look at analyses of the prevalence of common eye diseases and their effect on dementia incidence. Steps include 1) aligning variables available in both ACT and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2) multiple imputation to create participation weights for everyone, 3) the iterative process of constructing the participation weights and assessing covariate balance, 4) analyses using these weights, and 5) bootstrapping confidence intervals to account for the error in estimating the weights.
    Date: 2024–02–22
  14. By: Gilles Le Garrec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Vincent Touzé (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Cet article dresse un bilan de la capacité que les principaux pays européens ont eue à faire face au vieillissement accéléré de leur population active depuis 2008. L'analyse se concentre précisément sur dix pays : l'Allemagne, l'Autriche, la Belgique, le Danemark, l'Espagne, la Finlande, la France, l'Italie, les Pays-Bas et la Suède. Les réformes des systèmes de retraite depuis les années 1990 ont entraîné un recul progressif de l'âge moyen de la retraite, ce qui a augmenté le taux d'activité des seniors. S'est alors posée la question de leur maintien dans l'emploi, en considérant les spécificités liées à leur âge, telles que l'expérience acquise, l'obsolescence du capital humain ou encore un état de santé potentiellement dégradé et comment elles peuvent influencer leur intégration professionnelle (productivité, salaire et contrat de travail). Les stratégies européennes et nationales ont visé à adapter les marchés du travail afin de répondre aux caractéristiques des seniors. Elles se sont notamment appuyées sur les axes suivants : formation professionnelle tout au long de la vie, lutte contre la discrimination basée sur l'âge, adaptation des postes, management des âges, flexibilité du temps de travail. Malgré des performances différenciées, une convergence des taux d'emploi des seniors s'est observée, les pays ayant eu un retard important en 2008 connaissant les plus fortes hausses par la suite. Deux groupes se distinguent néanmoins : ceux historiquement en avance et qui ont maintenu une certaine dynamique (Allemagne, Pays-Bas, Suède, Danemark et Finlande) et ceux en retard qui s'inscrivent aussi dans un schéma de convergence mais qui sont à la traîne sur l'emploi des 60-64 ans (France, Espagne, Italie, Belgique et Autriche).
    Keywords: Europe, marché du travail, vieillissement, senior, taux d'emploi
    Date: 2024–05

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