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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Blagica Petreski; Abdylmenaf Bexheti |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2026-10/61 |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Mehdi Ammi; Minchung Hsu; Minjoon Lee; Tomoe Naito; Keisuke Otsu |
| Abstract: | Population aging and shortages of long-term care workers have increased interest in caregiving robots and information and communication technology (ICT). This paper provides novel large-scale evidence on older individuals’ perceptions of such technologies, drawing on a custom-designed internet survey of 4, 314 Japanese individuals aged 55 to 75. Respondents choose between two otherwise identical nursing homes: one in which all care is provided by human caregivers, and one in which robots and ICT are used to provide a substantial share of care in one randomly assigned domain (communication, monitoring, or mobility assistance), while other care remains human-provided. A majority of respondents (65 percent) prefer nursing homes where robots and ICT are used. Acceptance differs substantially across care domains: It is highest for mobility assistance, intermediate for monitoring, and lowest for communication. The average willingness to pay (WTP) for a nursing home where robots and ICT provide a substantial share of care is sizable, at 8 percent above the typical nursing home fee. Prior awareness of caregiving robots is positively associated with both acceptance and WTP, pointing to the potential role of information in shaping older individuals’ preferences. Acceptance and WTP are also strongly associated with sentiments toward robots and ICT expressed in attitude questions, providing support for the internal consistency of survey responses. A back-of-the-envelope calculation offers suggestive evidence that the benefits of introducing robots and ICT can be much larger than the costs, in particular for mobility-aid robots. |
| Keywords: | Long-term care, caregiving robots and ICT, nursing homes, survey. |
| JEL: | I10 J14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:27 |
| By: | Sang-Hyop Lee (University of Hawai`i at Mānoa); Hyun Kyung Kim (Chungbuk National University); Huixia Wang (Hunan University); Donghyun Park (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre) |
| Abstract: | We estimate expected financial resources in old age—including public transfers, family transfers, accumulated assets, and post-retirement labor income—and compare them with target consumption needs. The sample is divided into a reference group (individuals at or beyond retirement age) and a target group (pre-retirement individuals). Two retirement scenarios are considered: (i) a statutory retirement age of 62 for both men and women, and (ii) effective retirement ages of 66 for men and 65 for women. Results are presented by gender and place of residence. We find substantial heterogeneity in financial preparedness, with women facing significantly larger shortfalls than men. Continued work and family transfers remain critical pillars of old-age support, highlighting the transitional nature of the Republic of Korea’s welfare regime. |
| Keywords: | population aging;financial preparedness;retirement;pensions;Republic of Korea |
| JEL: | J14 H55 D91 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:023633 |
| By: | R. Anton Braun; Karen A. Kopecky |
| Abstract: | Long-term care is costly. About 45 percent of 65-year-old Americans will require formal long-term care assistance during their lifetime and one in twelve will incur out-of-pocket expenses of $200, 000 or more. Surprisingly, only 10 percent of retirees have private long-term care insurance. We use a quantitative structural model to show that an obstacle to increasing coverage is disagreement across the income distribution: scaling back public long-term care insurance expands the private market and benefits the affluent but imposes large welfare losses on the poor, while universal public insurance does the opposite. We then show that making the main public insurer, Medicaid, the primary rather than the secondary payer of long-term care costs, while retaining its means tests, raises welfare for nearly all Americans. Private insurers respond by offering smaller, more profitable policies, and total coverage against long-term care risk rises with only a modest increase in public expenditures. |
| Keywords: | long-term care insurance; Medicaid; means-tested transfers; adverse selection; insurance rejections |
| JEL: | D82 D91 E62 G22 H30 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103852 |
| By: | Csaba G. Tóth (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Emese Kovács (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is one of the most pressing demographic challenges, yet its main drivers remain contested. A key limitation of existing research is that the initial age structure is rarely treated as a separate driver, despite its influence on the pace and pattern of ageing. This study adapts a decomposition method based on the stationary population model to identify the separate contributions of fertility, mortality, net migration, and the initial age structure to changes in mean age. We apply this framework to Central and Eastern Europe, a region that has lost its earlier advantage of having a relatively young age structure compared with the rest of Europe. The results show that below-replacement fertility accounted for about half of the increase in mean age between 1990 and 2025. One of our main findings is that the contribution of the initial age structure exceeded the combined effect of mortality improvement and net migration. However, the latter showed substantial country-level variation. It also revealed the double burden of outmigration, as in countries affected by severe net outflows, it reduces population size while also accelerating ageing. The findings further indicate that the initial age structure was the main channel through which convergence in population ageing emerged in the region. Finally, cluster analysis identifies distinct groups of countries according to similarities in the demographic forces shaping their ageing processes. |
| Keywords: | population ageing; mean age; fertility; mortality; net migration; initial age structure; decomposition; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2613 |
| By: | Justina Klimaviciute; Pierre Pestieau; Jerome Schoenmaeckers |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the design of a social policy scheme for long-term care in a setting where disabled elderly individuals receive care both informally, from family members, and formally, from professional providers. We introduce two key features: informal caregivers bear substantial physiological and psychological costs, and they tend to be myopic with respect to these health consequences. Under perfect observability, an optimal policy can induce caregivers to exercise caution and provide an appropriate level of informal care. However, when individual characteristics are not common knowledge, public policy must resort to distortions and indirect instruments to guide agents toward optimal behavior - a classic second-best problem. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, myopia, caregiving burden, Social insurance |
| JEL: | H21 J14 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13016 |
| By: | Qian, Yuting (Yale University); Allore, Heather (Yale University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Timely dementia detection determines access to care planning, supportive services, and emerging treatments, yet whether healthcare system has become better at identifying dementia—and whether this varies with the payment arrangement under which beneficiaries receive care—is unknown. We link older adults with probable dementia in Health and Retirement Study to Medicare claims (1998–2020) and estimate the covariate-adjusted share receiving a claims-based dementia diagnosis by year. Among Traditional Medicare (TM) enrollees, fewer than half of all cases—and fewer than one-third of early-stage cases—had ever been diagnosed, showing no significant improvement. Annual detection was higher under fee-for-service TM than under capitated Medicare Advantage (MA) plans. Annual detection rose over time in both plan types, but not among early-stage cases, a pattern more consistent with greater recognition of advanced disease than with upcoding following the 2019 reintroduction of dementia into MA risk adjustment. The results reveal a persistent gap between the policy emphasis on early diagnosis and clinical practice, and suggest that payment structure and provider networks, not only enrollee composition, shape how well dementia is identified. |
| Keywords: | dementia, diagnosis and detection, Medicare Advantage, Traditional Medicare, capitation, risk adjustment, geographic variation |
| JEL: | I11 I13 I14 I18 J14 H51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18978 |
| By: | Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln; Jonas Jessen; Pinchuan Ong; Jessica Pan |
| Abstract: | We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of−0.65-close to the quasi-experimental estimate of−0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners' own reports. |
| Keywords: | marginal propensity to earn, hypothetical scenarios, subjective expectations, benchmark |
| JEL: | J22 H55 D84 J26 D10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26251 |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto |
| Abstract: | We estimate the health and wellbeing effects of subsidized access to long-term care (LTC). Our analysis exploits the staggered implementation of Spain’s 2007 System of Autonomy and Care for Dependent People (SAAD), which expanded publicly funded and universal LTC subsidies and supports, as well as its subsequent reform. Using two decades worth of administrative and survey data and leveraging exogenous regional and individual-level variation in program exposure, we find that access to SAAD benefits reduces the care receiver’s depressive symptoms by about 1 percentage point, increases its survival probability by 2.6–3 percentage points, and raises its life satisfaction by 0.24–0.50 scale points. Cost-effectiveness estimates indicate that the implied cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained lies below commonly accepted efficiency thresholds for public health spending in Europe. These findings document sizeable health returns and efficiency gains from publicly subsidized LTC provision. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-30 |
| By: | Sergio Cesaratto |
| Abstract: | These notes compare the interpretations of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and fully funded (FF) pension systems and proposals of reform provided by alternative economic theories. After outlining the debate on the intra-temporal or intertemporal nature of PAYG, we will focus on the issues of pension reforms aimed at expanding the funded pillar. We will particularly discuss the issue of the transition from PAYG to funded systems. Mainstream support for reforms has often been based on comparing the rates of return on contributions from the two systems. Criticism of the funded pillar has often been heard from heterodox economists being based on the relative higher risk of capitalization. However, both points of view neglect the issue of transition, as if the choice were in the abstract between PAYG and the FF pillar. In this sense, twenty years ago Cesaratto (2005) contributed to fill a severe gap both in conventional and in post-Keynesian analyses. Other innovative contributions will be noted in passing, such as the outline of a classical surplus-theory of the social state and of the role of public pension-spending in demand-led output theories. |
| Keywords: | Pension reforms, Pay-as-you-go, Fully Funded schemes, Neoclassical theory, Classical-Keynesian approach Jel Classification:E11, E12, E22, H55, E24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:948 |
| By: | Kanabar, Ricky; Nivalainen, Satu |
| Abstract: | We examine how changes to Extended Unemployment Benefit, an early retirement pathway for long-term unemployed workers in Finland affects labour market outcomes, using three reforms for identification. In 2003, minimum eligibility age was raised from 57 to 59, in 2010 to age 60 and in 2014 to age 61. We show that among individuals previously employed in the private sector the 2003 reform had the largest effect: cumulative employment by age 63 increased by 10 months, unemployment declined correspondingly, and earnings increased by €39, 700 (in 2024 prices). While the 2014 reform increased cumulative employment by 3.2 months and earnings by €14, 500, we find only limited evidence that the 2010 reform increased employment and earnings. Among individuals previously employed in the public sector, only the 2003 reform had an effect, increasing employment by 2.7 months but having no impact on earnings. We show that the composition of the long-term unemployed changed over time: whilst most remained low-educated former manual workers, later cohorts included larger shares of tertiary-educated former professionals. Moreover, we find earlier reforms affected a broad group of unemployed individuals, whereas later reforms disproportionately affected highly educated professional employees. Our findings highlight the need to pay particular attention to heterogeneity in response behaviour when assessing reforms to early retirement pathways and to consider their cohort-specific distributional consequences. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2026-05 |
| By: | Laurence M. Ball |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of population growth on welfare in an OLG model, in which lower population growth raises output per worker but also reduces the ratio of workers to retirees. Under fairly mild restrictions on the model’s parameters, there exists an optimal population-growth rate—one that maximizes steady-state welfare. This growth rate may well be negative: it may be optimal for the population to shrink over time. The introduction of a pay-as-you-go social security system reduces the optimal population-growth rate. |
| JEL: | H55 J11 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35823 |
| By: | Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Muliavka, Viktoriia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schneemann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schneider, Martin |
| Abstract: | "As part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de), the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has developed a new population projection for the long-term development of Germany´s 400 districts and district-free cities, the 16 federal states and 34 labour market regions up to 2070. A key distinguishing feature of this population projection, which sets it apart from other projections, is its differentiation between people with and without German citizenship. This allows to take into account substantial differences in fertility rates and migration behaviour. The new population projection illustrates that Germany´s long-term population development is shaped by fundamental demographic trends: a substantial population decline by 5, 9% by 2045 and 10, 7% by 2070 (compared with 2024). This development is driven by an ageing population, further increases in life expectancy, and low birth rates. Combined with declining migration, these factors have a major influence on demographic development and lead to a substantial shift in the age structure. At the district level, the largest percentage decline by 2070 is expected in the district of Suhl (southern Thuringia), at 38, 1%. Among the ten fastest-growing districts (measured in percentage terms), none is located in eastern Germany, while the ten districts expected to experience the largest declines are all located in eastern Germany. With the exception of Leipzig, the areas around Schwerin, and Berlin, there are no districts in the eastern German states expected to record substantial population growth. However, when considering absolute population figures, the clear East-West divide is no longer apparent. In particular, western German districts and the metropolitan areas of Munich and Berlin have experienced substantial population growth in recent years due to migration. If the projected decline in the net migration continues, many districts in western Germany will also experience population decline. The working age population (aged 15 to 67) is expected to decline in most districts. In 68% of districts, this age group is projected to decrease by more than 10% by 2045, and in 81% of districts by 2070. The only districts expected to gain population in this age group are predominantly urban areas or rural regions with a degree of urbanisation. The development of the net migration is also clearly reflected at the level of the federal states. With the exception of the city-state of Hamburg (1, 3%), all federal states are expected to lose population. Thuringia is projected to be affected most severely, with a decline of 15, 2% by 2045 and 24, 9% by 2070. As at the district level, population decline is particularly pronounced in the eastern federal states, where demographic change has been progressing for many years. This is attributed to the ageing population, low birth rates, and insufficient immigration from abroad. At the same time, western German states, which have so far benefited from migration from both within and outside Europe, will also be substantially affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population, albeit to a lesser extent. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67), which is particularly relevant for the labour market, is also expected to decline substantially in all federal states (Hamburg: -3, 2% by 2045 and -8, 3% by 2070; Thuringia: -19, 6% by 2045 and -26, 4% by 2070). At the level of labour market regions, developments in the migration balance follow a pattern similar to that observed at the district and federal-state levels. The Erfurt labour market region is projected to experience the largest decline, at 14, 7% by 2045 (-24, 1% by 2070). Overall, eastern German labour market regions are more strongly affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67) is projected to decline substantially in all labour market regions (Hamburg labour market region: -7, 2% by 2045 and -9, 8% by 2070; Erfurt labour market region: -19, 0% by 2045 and -25, 7% by 2070). The decline in this age group will have a substantial impact on labour supply. In regions where the working-age population declines faster than the total population, labour shortages could emerge or existing shortages could intensify. In addition to population ageing, the trend towards urbanisation is reinforcing population decline in rural areas. While larger cities as well as university locations, such as Heidelberg and Bamberg, benefit from population growth, rural regions in eastern Germany are experiencing declines of more than 30%. The strong influx into the metropolitan areas of Hamburg, Berlin, and Munich is not expected to continue at the same pace. Western German districts and metropolitan areas, in particular, have gained population in recent years as a result of international migration. Overall, the share of the population without German citizenship is projected to decline by 2045 and 2070 as a result of a lower net migration. A clear East-West divide will nevertheless remain: districts with high shares of foreign nationals are concentrated in western Germany, while the corresponding shares in eastern Germany remain below average." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202611 |
| By: | Patrick Aubert (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, DREES - Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Ministère des Affaires sociales, de la Santé et des Droits des femmes)) |
| Abstract: | L'équité entre les générations est un objectif central du système français de retraite. Utiliser concrètement cette notion pour guider le pilotage du système suppose cependant de savoir la mesurer, ce qui s'avère délicat. Cet article discute les indicateurs habituellement mobilisés pour cela -les « quatre dimensions de l'équité » du COR, puis les indicateurs synthétiques (taux de récupération, taux de rendement interne) -et en souligne les limites : ces indicateurs diminuent au fil des générations, au moins pour partie sous l'effet de contraintes externes, sans traduire forcément une inéquité du système. Leur interprétation suppose en outre de disposer d'une référence « équitable », qui reste à définir. Dans un contexte de gains tendanciels de productivité, redistribuer une partie de ces gains vers les générations plus âgées peut par ailleurs être légitime, selon une optique de redistribution « verticale », puisque les générations plus jeunes sont jugées plus aisées du fait d'une productivité plus élevée. Déterminer le « juste » niveau de redistribution entre les générations relève ainsi moins d'une mesure technique que d'un choix politique. L'article propose un indicateur complémentaire, « dans l'absolu », permettant de mieux éclairer ce choix : le revenu net cumulé sur le cycle de vie par année travaillée. |
| Keywords: | retraite, équité intergénérationnelle, indicateurs, pilotage du système de retraite |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05733190 |
| By: | Mantel, Isabella (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Riphahn, Regina (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demo-graphic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the ob-served delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18980 |