|
on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Cutanda, Antonio (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain); Sanchis, Juan A. (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | As the proportion of the Spanish population entering retirement continues to grow, the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go social security system is facing increasing pressure. This study examines the implications of this demographic shift on consumption patterns in Spain from 2002 to 2017, focusing specifically on the retirement consumption puzzle using data from the Survey of Households Finances (SHF). Our findings, obtained from various estimation methods, suggest that the average decline in non-durable consumption at retirement is approximately 20%. This is in line with results from other developed economies and exceeds previous estimates for Spain. However, our analysis provides inconclusive results regarding spending on food and beverages. Finally, we observe no significant differences in the responses of working individuals and retirees to changes in interest rates, which suggests that monetary policy does not necessarily have to be adjusted due to the fact that the population is ageing. |
| Keywords: | Consumer spending, Panel data, Regression discontinuity, Instrumental variables, Intertemporal Substitution for consumption |
| JEL: | C23 C26 D12 D15 E21 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Thomas Blavet (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIRAES (URP_ 4470) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Luca Lorenzoni (OCDE / OECD - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); Thomas Rapp (OCDE / OECD - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | By 2050, the share of people aged 65 and over is projected to reach 26.4% of the total population across OECD countries. As long-term care (LTC) services -covering assistance with daily tasks such as eating, mobility and bathing -are essential to maintaining the well-being and autonomy of older persons, demographic ageing will drive a substantial increase in both demand for LTC and the public resources required to finance it. Ensuring the long-term sustainability of public finances therefore requires a forward-looking assessment of future LTC spending trends. This paper develops projections for public LTC expenditure to 2050, distinguishing between the health-related component (assistance with activities of daily living) and the social-care component (assistance with instrumental activities of daily living). Using time-series data from the OECD System of Health Accounts (2003-2022) and dependency measures derived from EU-SILC and national surveys, regression analyses identify the main drivers of LTC spending. These estimated relationships are then applied in a projection model for OECD countries. The analysis also includes three alternative scenarios: a cost-pressure scenario, a healthy-ageing scenario, and an enhanced-productivity scenario. Under baseline projections, public LTC expenditure is expected to almost double between 2023 and 2050, reaching 2.8 % of GDP across OECD countries. This reflects increases of 0.5 percentage points for the health component (up to 1.7% of GDP), and 0.7 percentage points for the social component (up to 1.1% of GDP). These upward pressures will occur alongside projected increases in other ageing-related spending: public pension expenditure is expected to rise from 8.8% to 10% of GDP, and public health spending from 5.5% to 8.8% of GDP over the same period. Given that demographic ageing is both predictable and long-lasting, countries have the opportunity -and responsibility -to plan and implement whole-of-government strategies to ensure sustainable LTC systems. This includes anticipating rising demand, strengthening workforce capacity, improving productivity in LTC provision, and integrating LTC reforms with broader strategies to address higher pension and healthcare costs. |
| Keywords: | Long-term care, Demographic Aging |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05588672 |
| By: | Lansink, Xander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Montizaan, Raymond (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, ROA / Labour market and training); Patel, Salman (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | Rising statutory retirement ages and population aging have increased interest in why individuals work beyond retirement. This systematic literature review synthesizes evidence from 103 studies, including 11 with causal designs, on post-retirement employment. We examine the roles of financial incentives, health, job characteristics, intrinsic motivation, family, and institutional context. Causal studies show modest effects of pension reforms, tax incentives, and abolitions of mandatory retirement, while employer practices and workplace flexibility strongly shape opportunities. Observational evidence highlights heterogeneous patterns across socioeconomic groups, sectors, and welfare-state regimes: financial necessity dominates in liberal systems, whereas voluntary engagement and identity motives are more important in social-democratic contexts. The findings underscore the need for multidimensional, coordinated policy approaches, combining macro-level incentives with firm-level practices and flexible work arrangements, to effectively extend working lives. |
| Keywords: | Post-retirement employment, Determinants, Institutional Context |
| JEL: | J26 J14 J32 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2026002 |
| By: | Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Wallossek, Luisa; Winter, Joachim |
| Abstract: | Default settings strongly increase pension enrollment, especially when savings incentives are high and choices are complex. We show that the effect is weaker when incentives are low, options are simple, and opting out is easy. We study the nationwide introduction of auto-enrollment for low income employees in Germany's public pay-as-you-go pension system. We find that automatic enrollment raises participation by 23 percentage points, though most individuals actively opt out. Linking administrative and survey data shows that the default effect is stronger when enrollment incentives are higher and among individuals who lack knowledge of their enrollment status. |
| Keywords: | Default-Setting, Auto-Enrollment, Pensions, Financial Literacy |
| JEL: | D14 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:340111 |
| By: | Takashi Oshio; Satoshi Shimizutani |
| Abstract: | This study examined how health inequalities with respect to income have changed among older adults in Japan from 2001 to 2022. The past two decades have witnessed a series of public pension reforms and increased labor force participation among older individuals. The pro-rich concentration of good health has become less clear for self-rated health and activities of daily living among older men. However, income-related inequality in stress/anxiety increased over time in men, and no clear trend was observed for health deficiencies or conditions. Compared to men, women showed more mixed results, with widening inequalities in health deficiencies and conditions. |
| JEL: | H55 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35094 |
| By: | Yu, Jiao; Wang, Yi; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of neighborhood disorder on dementia risk among middle-aged and older adults in the United States and identify cardiometabolic dysregulation as a mediating biological pathway. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, 2006-2020), we show that exposure to visible neighborhood disorder is associated with higher risk of dementia (Hazard Ratio: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.08-1.74) and higher risk of cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND; HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.22-1.85) over a 14-year follow-up. Mediation analysis reveals that a composite cardiometabolic risk score-aggregating seven biomarkers spanning inflammatory, cardiovascular, and metabolic systems-accounts for approximately 16 percent of the total neighborhood disorder-dementia association and 19 percent of the neighborhood disorder-CIND association. These findings are robust to competing-risk regression for mortality, restriction to non-movers, age-at-onset restrictions, and exclusion of pandemic-year data. The results establish neighborhood disorder as a modifiable upstream risk factor for cognitive decline and identify cardiometabolic health as a biologically proximate mediating pathway. The findings have implications for place-based public health policy: community-level interventions that simultaneously reduce visible signs of neighborhood decay and address cardiometabolic risk may yield dementia-prevention dividends beyond what individual-level clinical strategies alone can achieve. |
| Keywords: | dementia, cognitive impairment, neighborhood disorder, cardiometabolic risk, social determinants of health, mediation analysis |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J14 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1744 |
| By: | Joseph Kopecky (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | I develop a quantitative multi‐country, multi‐sector trade model in which population age structure shapes comparative advantage through age‐dependent skills. Workers of different ages supply heterogeneous bundles of cognitive and physical abilities that appreciate or depreciate over the life cycle, and sectors use these skills with differing intensities. I embed this mechanism into a Ricardian trade model calibrated to 30 countries and 20 manufacturing sectors. Reduced‐form evidence from a panel of 204 countries (1995‐2024) documents a 'grey advantage': a country's share of older workers is associated with a shift in its export mix toward appreciating‐skill‐intensive sectors. Evaluated in partial equilibrium, the calibrated model recovers 84% of this empirical relationship. General equilibrium adjustment then compresses the trade composition response by a factor of ten, as endogenous wage and price changes absorb the sectoral reallocation but generate welfare‐relevant real-income effects. Forward projections decompose the total demographic effect into a workforce‐size channel (shrinking populations produce less) and a skill‐composition channel (aging shifts the mix of skills, altering sectoral comparative advantage). The composition channel generates welfare effects ranging from ‐0.9% to +0.05%, comparable to standard trade‐policy shocks, and exhibits a striking temporal pattern. Historical demographic divergence supported positive composition gains, but as countries' age structures converge toward a common older profile, these gains are reversing. Bilateral trade flows reallocate accordingly, with the model projecting that China‐US trade will fall by 10% and India‐US trade will rise by 34% in the coming decades. |
| Keywords: | Comparative advantage, Population aging, Trade, Demographics, Ricardian model |
| JEL: | F11 F14 F17 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0726 |
| By: | Adriaan Kalwij; Arie Kapteyn |
| Abstract: | In the Netherlands, life expectancy has continued to rise over the last two decades and the distribution of the age of death has narrowed, which suggests a decrease in health inequality. For the same period, however, the income-mortality gradient has increased, which suggests that the health gains have been unequally distributed across the income distribution. We examine the latter suggestion using data for the Netherlands of the longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Our empirical findings show no significant changes in income-based physical and mental health inequalities during the last two decades. Arguably, larger samples, such as administrative data which is often used to analyze the income-mortality gradient, are needed to investigate in more detail the evolution of physical and mental health inequalities before drawing firm conclusions. |
| JEL: | I00 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35097 |
| By: | Andrew Donaldson |
| Abstract: | The paper charts the evolution of South Africa's pension fund industry spanning the past 40 years. It shows that the increase in assets under management has been accompanied by a relative decline in investment in public sector debt. The analysis raises important questions about sustainable financing of growth and development |
| Keywords: | savings, investment |
| JEL: | G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202606 |
| By: | Borja Larrain; Alessandro Previtero; Felipe Severino |
| Abstract: | We examine how annuities affect longevity using administrative payout data on approximately 600, 000 Chilean retirees from 2004 to 2022. To address selection into annuitization, we exploit the fact that annuity sales vary with recent market returns, a pattern consistent with extrapolative beliefs. We find that the decision to annuitize—instrumented by recent market returns—substantially reduces mortality at five- and ten-year horizons. Further analyses indicate that annuities reduce mortality by shielding retirees from income volatility and investment-related stress. Complementary survey evidence suggests that annuitants invest more in health and report lower disability rates. |
| JEL: | D14 G22 G41 G51 G52 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35082 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labour market outcomes, skills, health, subjective well-being and social connectedness across the life course in Finland, drawing on the OECD Well-being Framework to identify policy areas where interventions could be assessed for their economic and well-being returns. Three findings stand out. First, Finland's strong overall performance masks a significant intergenerational gradient: while older cohorts enjoy robust well-being outcomes relative to both younger Finns and international peers, results for younger generations are increasingly fragile, with rising unemployment, declining PISA scores and deteriorating subjective well-being in recent years. Second, each age group faces distinct vulnerabilities: older adults could benefit from expanding lifelong learning; middle-aged men face declining employment while women shoulder a disproportionate unpaid work burden alongside a persistent gender wage gap; and mental health for both groups lag behind international comparators. Third, loneliness and social isolation have risen for all ages since 2018, pointing to a cross-generational challenge. |
| Keywords: | life course, social investment, well-being |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:wiseaa:38-en |
| By: | Alho, Juha |
| Abstract: | Abstract The recent drastic decline of fertility has further worsened the negative intrinsic growth of Finland. The country appears to be on a path towards decline. Net migration has kept the actual growth positive, especially because the migrants are younger than the receiving population. Their fertility has also been markedly higher. However, new data show that the fertility of the recent migrants has declined to the low level of native Finns. Graphics is used to describe the structure and development of Finland’s population. Short commentaries are associated with each of the approximately thirty figures. Aspects of population development that tend to be ignored in public discussion, are highlighted. Individual’s perspective is emphasized. Technical language is avoided, and there are no mathematical formulas. A short list of demographic terms, a list of suitable references, and details of the Statistics Finland source data, are provided. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Age distribution, Mortality, Migration, Population development, Finland |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:138 |