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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Emre Kurt (University of Insubria); Hao Wei (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether migrants and native-born workers respond differently to pension reforms that encourage longer working lives. Using longitudinal data from SHARE Waves 4–9 for Germany and Spain, we construct individual reform exposure based on country-specific reform timing, birth-cohort eligibility, and proximity to retirement age, and estimate models with individual and survey-wave fixed effects. Reform exposure is associated with a lower probability of retirement, with suggestive evidence of an additional decline among migrants. This migrant differential is particularly pronounced in Spain, while the corresponding estimate is small and statistically insignificant in Germany, although formal cross-country tests do not establish a statistically significant difference between the two countries. Complementary analyses indicate that adjustment is concentrated around retirement ages rather than reflecting a broad increase in employment, while evidence for effects on mental health and generalized trust is limited. Overall, the findings suggest that migrants may respond differently to pension reform, but that these differences are concentrated at specific retirement margins and depend on the institutional context |
| Keywords: | Migration, Retirement, Mental Health, Generalized Trust, SHARE |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J26 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-013 |
| By: | Hernández-Pizarro, Helena; Maynou, Laia; Prades-Colomé, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is raising the demand for long-term care (LTC), leading many countries to develop publicly funded LTC systems. However, little is known about whether the benefits these systems provide help preserve the functional autonomy of the people who receive them. We use the administrative registry of the Catalan LTC system, covering 320, 618 individuals aged 60 or over who entered between 2015 and 2024, and follow them for two, three, five and seven years. Because applicants are assessed and reassessed with the same standardised instrument (the BVD), we observe repeated, comparable measures of functional capacity, down to the level of individual daily-living tasks. We proceed in three steps. First, we estimate how the intensity of exposure to each benefit (informal home care, formal home care, day centre care and institutional care) is associated with death, grade deterioration and within-grade deterioration. Second, we compute life-years and deterioration-free years gained using regression-standardised survival curves. Third, we analyse the size and composition of functional decline among survivors. Greater benefit intensity is associated with lower mortality: full exposure to each benefit is associated with between 0.36 (institutional care) and 1.40 (informal home care) additional life-years over seven years, relative to no benefit. Among survivors, higher intensity is also associated with a greater probability of recorded deterioration, most markedly in institutional care. This pattern is consistent with survival-deterioration selection and with benefits responding to need, rather than with care causing decline. Losses in indoor mobility, changing body position and continence/toileting are most strongly associated with institutional care. Estimates are associations, not causal effects. The results show the value of routine functional assessment data for evaluating LTC policy in ageing societies. |
| Keywords: | long-term care;Residential Care;Home-Based Care;Functional Decline;population ageing |
| JEL: | J14 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14782 |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan; Lukas Harder |
| Abstract: | Progressive pension supplements mechanically reduce the gender pension gap because women receive lower pensions on average. However, labor supply responses may offset these gains and create fiscal externalities. Using German administrative data, we analyze the distributional and welfare effects of a progressive pension supplement. We find no labor supply responses during working life, but small effects on women’s employment and earnings in retirement. The supplement reduces the gender income gap by about two percent, with sizable heterogeneity across pension levels. The marginal value of public funds is 0.83. Means-testing based on household income improves welfare even with low redistributive preferences. |
| Keywords: | gender, pensions, retirement, labor supply, redistribution |
| JEL: | H55 H23 J16 J26 J22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2185 |
| By: | Oscar Galvez-Soriano† (The University of Chicago); Raymundo Ramirez Peralta (El Colegio de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of the 2019 expansion of Mexico's Social Pension Program. This reform simultaneously increased benefit generosity and expanded eligibility to individuals previously excluded because they received contributory pensions. Using nationally representative household data and a combination of difference-in-differences and triple-differences strategies, we separately identify the effects of increased transfer generosity and expanded eligibility. We find that the combined reform substantially increased program participation, household income, and reduced both poverty and extreme poverty. However, these gains were driven primarily by the increase in benefit levels. When we isolate the effect of universalization, we find no significant reduction in poverty and a modest increase in extreme poverty by 2024. Consistent with a labor-leisure framework, this increase is concentrated among low-income elderly individuals who reduced labor supply after receiving the pension despite the transfer being insufficient to fully replace forgone earnings. The universalization also expanded participation among low-income elderly who may have previously faced barriers to enrollment while attracting substantial participation among higher-income beneficiaries whose economic behavior remained largely unchanged. In addition, the reform generated heterogeneous effects on household consumption, health expenditures, and educational investments. Overall, the results highlight an important trade-off of universal social pensions: broader access can reduce exclusion, but the welfare consequences of expanding coverage may differ substantially from those of increasing transfer generosity. |
| Keywords: | non-contributory pensions, social protection, retirement behavior, poverty |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J14 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2026-01 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Jimenez-Martin, Sergi; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina |
| Abstract: | We estimate the health and wellbeing effects of subsidized access to long-term care (LTC). Our analysis exploits the staggered implementation of Spain’s 2007 System of Autonomy and Care for Dependent People (SAAD), which expanded publicly funded and universal LTC subsidies and supports, as well as its subsequent reform. Using two decades worth of administrative and survey data and leveraging exogenous regional and individual-level variation in program exposure, we find that access to SAAD benefits reduces the care receiver’s depressive symptoms by about 1 percentage point, increases its survival probability by 2.6–3 percentage points, and raises its life satisfaction by 0.24–0.50 scale points. Cost-effectiveness estimates indicate that the implied cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained lies below commonly accepted efficiency thresholds for public health spending in Europe. These findings document sizeable health returns and efficiency gains from publicly subsidized LTC provision. |
| Keywords: | lomg-term care subsidies;long-term care supports;old age care;Spain;mortality;cost per QALY;survival;mental health;life satisfaction |
| JEL: | I18 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140775 |
| By: | Johannes Geyer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Haan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Lukas Harder (Freie Universität Berlin) |
| Date: | 2026–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/62 |
| By: | Jessica Ordemann |
| Abstract: | Previous literature has mainly focused on either income trajectories of higher education graduates in working life or in retirement. This paper advances this literature by investigating the inequalities of income trajectories at the transition into retirement and compare the trajectories to other educational graduates for the case of Germany. While cumulative advantage theory suggests that education-based income inequalities widen throughout working life, the institutional design of the German pension system fundamentally alters these trajectories. Using data from 1, 741 (11, 740 observations) baby boomers from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) I combine descriptive income trajectories with fixed effects regression and replacement rate analysis. I find a stratified pattern by educational degree in pre- and post-retirement income. However, income inequality by education degree is more pronounced during work life than in retirement: At the transition into retirement income differences are compressed relative to pre-retirement disparities. This compression operates through heterogeneous replacement rates. Higher educated individuals have lower replacement rates than the rest of the educational groups. Germany’s contribution-capped statutory pension system therefore constitutes a structurally induced erosion of the income advantage that higher education generates over a working lifetime. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1243 |
| By: | Selahattin Imrohoroglu |
| Abstract: | Population aging is usually summarized by a single number—an old-age dependency ratio (OADR), or a projected drag on growth—as though fiscal pressure and growth pressure were two readings of the same quantity. Using the 2024 UN World Population Prospects and Penn World Table 11.0, this paper measures both on a common basis for 103 economies and finds that they are not. The speed through the critical range, in which four working-age adults per elderly person become two, strongly predicts the required retirement-age adjustment ( ρ = −0.69) but is nearly unrelated to the demographic growth effect in a calibrated Solow decomposition ( ρ = 0.14). The two measures differ because one compares age structures at two dates whereas the other depends on the path between them and on how much calendar time it occupies. The dissociation survives finer partitions of the transition, a projection truncated at 2060, alternative working-age boundaries, and either allocation of the interaction between the two channels; it attenuates only among economies that traverse the entire transition within the projection window. The first implication is for measurement: projected growth drag is not a sufficient statistic for fiscal urgency, so rankings built on either measure alone misidentify which economies face the hardest adjustment. The second is sharper. Higher fertility moves only the denominator of OADR, with a lag of at least two decades, and in the interim raises the total dependency ratio: under the UNs medium variant Korea has a higher total dependency ratio in 2050 than under the low variant, and a smaller working-age share until 2060. The retirees of the next two to three decades are already alive, so the initial phase of the adjustment is locked in by todays age structure regardless of future fertility. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:26-017e |
| By: | Lundberg, Jacob (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the efficiency cost of pay-as-you-go pension systems. The return on pension contributions – typically average income growth – is lower than the market return on capital. Because the gap between these returns compounds over the life cycle, early-career contributions have a higher implicit tax rate. I develop a sufficient-statistics framework in which the deadweight loss depends on the age profile of implicit tax rates. Deadweight loss is minimized when the implicit tax rate is constant, mirroring the logic of tax smoothing. I then propose an implementation within a notional defined contribution design: contributions are valorized at a higher, market-based rate of return, while a lower fraction of contributions is credited to notional accounts and the remainder treated as a pure tax. Finally, I apply my deadweight loss formula to OECD PAYGO pension systems. Under the assumed parameter values, the deadweight loss averages 19 percent. I find that only 0.2 percentage points is attributable to the uneven timing of implicit taxation. |
| Keywords: | Pensions: Social security; Pay-as-you-go; Implicit taxation; Deadweight loss |
| JEL: | H21 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1568 |
| By: | Patrick Aubert (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, DREES - Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Ministère des Affaires sociales, de la Santé et des Droits des femmes)) |
| Abstract: | La réforme des retraites de 2003 avait instauré une règle de partage des gains d'espérance de vie à 60 ans entre durées de carrière et de retraite, abandonnée de facto en 2023. Cet article montre que cet abandon tient moins à un défaut de principe qu'à des ambiguïtés de formulation. Outre des difficultés techniques (espérance de vie instantanée plutôt que générationnelle, articulation incertaine avec l'âge minimal légal), la règle présentait deux propriétés rarement explicitées. D'une part, elle déterminait aussi, indirectement, le niveau des pensions, en programmant une baisse progressive du taux de remplacement à durée de carrière inchangée. D'autre part, elle mobilisait ainsi deux des trois leviers d'équilibrage du système (âge de départ et niveau des pensions) pour les seuls gains d'espérance de vie, reportant implicitement sur les cotisations les autres composantes du vieillissement, dont l'avancée en âge des générations du baby-boom – ce qui explique sans doute en partie qu'elle ait été jugée insuffisante, puis délaissée. Trois voies en découlent pour la reformuler : la recentrer sur l'âge du taux plein en la rebasant sur une référence plus soutenable, l'étendre à toutes les dimensions du vieillissement, ou stabiliser l'âge du taux plein et piloter par le taux d'annuité. Leur comparaison éclaire les arbitrages que toute réforme devra trancher, sans occulter la question, peut-être prioritaire, des inégalités intragénérationnelles liées à l'individualisation de l'âge du taux plein. |
| Keywords: | retraite, espérance de vie, équité intergénérationnelle, durée d'assurance, taux d'annuité, pilotage des retraites |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05784817 |
| By: | Costa, Eduardo; Gonçalves, Judite; Martins, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Healthcare systems across Europe are facing increasing workforce shortages. This paper aims to estimate the impact of physicians' and nurses' retirements on hospital operations and inpatient outcomes. The analysis draws on 2006-2018 NHS records (covering all discharges from Portugal's public hospitals) merged with Social Security records (covering all public servant retirements) at the hospital-month level and panel fixed-effects models with case-mix controls. Semi-structured interviews with health professionals and hospital executives contextualize findings. Our study shows that retirements, especially of physicians, are associated with short-term shifts in hospital activity, particularly a reduction in the share of inpatient-care admissions and changes in specific admission categories, rather than a broad reduction in total admissions. However, short-term patient outcomes remain stable, as resources are reallocated to critical cases. |
| Keywords: | health professionals' retirement, physicians, nurses, hospital admissions, hospital mortality, readmission rates |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1831 |
| By: | Artuc, Erhan; Barattieri, Alessandro; Noukwe, Isambert Leunga; Mattoo, Aaditya |
| Abstract: | Three key developments, protectionism, aging, and automation, are affecting the global pattern of industrial production and trade. While these trends affect many countries, they are especially consequential for China, which currently dominates global manufacturing. Using a multi-country model fitted with global trade and robotization data, this paper shows that automation can mitigate the adverse effects of protection and aging on competitiveness, particularly in sectors with a high share of automatable tasks. The impact of a 10 percent decline in labor force in China would be offset by doubling of robot productivity in vehicles, but robot productivity would need to more than triple in computers. |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11468 |