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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Bello, Piera; Galasso, Vincenzo; Izzo, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how policy uncertainty influences retirement decisions. We develop a simple model in which individuals face a one-time choice between immediate retirement and continued employment until the statutory retirement age. In the absence of policy uncertainty, retirement decisions depend solely on the standard income–leisure trade-off. When future pension reforms are uncertain, however, individuals also take into account the perceived risk of increases in the retirement age or reductions in benefit generosity, and may choose to accept the offer in order to lock in current pension rules. Using administrative data from a large Italian bank that offered a one-time early-retirement scheme in 2017, we find that acceptance rates decline with the expected income loss but rise with the number of years to retirement. These patterns are consistent with workers using early retirement as an insurance against potential policy changes, underscoring the importance of incorporating behavioural responses to policy uncertainty in the design of pension systems. Our findings suggest that individuals with an average annual income of €35, 000 are willing to pay an annual premium of €481 to insure against the probability that the pension system is reformed. |
| JEL: | D91 H55 J14 J26 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21344 |
| By: | Oral, Emre; Rabaté, Simon; Seibold, Arthur |
| Abstract: | We study how social forces in families, neighborhoods and workplaces shape retirement behavior. To estimate causal retirement spillovers between individuals, we exploit a pension reform in the Netherlands that creates exogenous variation in peers' retirement ages, and we use administrative data on the full Dutch population. We find large spillovers in couples, primarily due to women reacting to their husband's retirement choices. Average spillovers among siblings, neighbors, and coworkers are modest; however, consistent with homophily in social interactions, sizable effects arise between similar individuals in these groups. Additional evidence suggests both leisure complementarities and the transmission of social norms as mechanisms behind retirement spillovers. Our findings imply that pension reforms have a large social multiplier, amplifying their overall impact on retirement behavior by at least 42%. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21472 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Andrea Riganti (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the 2011 Italian Fornero Pension Reform altered retirement behaviour among individuals approaching retirement age and whether household characteristics shaped responses to the reform. Using panel data from Waves 4 and 5 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the analysis exploits variation in reform exposure across age cohorts and over time within a difference-in-differences framework with individual fixed effects. The results provide limited evidence that the reform substantially affected retirement and employment outcomes, although some estimates are consistent with delayed retirement and extended labour market participation. However, important heterogeneity emerges across household contexts. In particular, partnership status provides the strongest, albeit modest, evidence of heterogeneous responses to the reform. By contrast, there is little evidence that gender, number of children, caregiving responsibilities, health status, wealth, social support, or social security wealth systematically alter responses to the reform. These findings suggest that retirement behaviour is shaped not only by individual labour market incentives but also by household decision-making processes. More broadly, the results highlight the importance of considering household dynamics when evaluating the labour supply effects of pension reforms in family-oriented welfare systems such as Italy. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, family structure, retirement policy, household dynamics |
| JEL: | H55 J16 J26 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-007 |
| By: | Di Novi; C.; |
| Abstract: | Population ageing and declining availability of informal care are increasing unmet long- term care (LTC) needs across Europe. While previous studies document associations between unmet LTC needs and adverse health outcomes, evidence on their relationship with healthcare access remains limited. This paper examines the relationship between unmet LTC needs and healthcare access among older Europeans, conceptualising LTC as an enabling input that supports daily activities, instrumental tasks, and mobility. Using data from Waves 8 and 9 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), combined with both waves of the SHARE Corona Survey, I focus on individuals aged 65 and over with functional limitations. To address potential endogeneity, I use an instrumental-variable strategy based on variation in informal care availability. The IV estimates suggest that unmet LTC needs are associated with substantially lower use of healthcare services, consistent with potential spill over effects from LTC provision into the healthcare system. These findings suggest that strengthening LTC services may improve equity in healthcare access and help prevent delayed treatment and avoidable health deterioration that ultimately increases pressure on healthcare systems. |
| Keywords: | long-term care (LTC); disability; unmet LTC needs; healthcare access; |
| JEL: | I10 I18 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/09 |
| By: | Andrew Donaldson |
| Abstract: | The paper charts the evolution of South Africa's pension fund industry spanning the past 40 years. It shows that the increase in assets under management has been accompanied by a relative decline in investment in public sector debt. The analysis raises important questions about sustainable financing of growth and development. |
| Keywords: | savings, investment, pension funds, South Africa |
| JEL: | G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202607 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, and Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Ege Asutay (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) |
| Abstract: | Populist movements claim to represent an undifferentiated ‘people’, yet every redistributive instrument they enact selects a subset to receive its benefits. This paper uses Italy’s two back-to-back pension reforms as a stress test of that within-people contradiction. The technocratic Fornero Reform (2011) and the populist Quota 100 Reform (2019) share an institutional environment but follow opposite political logics, the second reversing the first. Using SHARE data for 2011–2022, we identify causal effects from age-based thresholds in a difference-in-differences design with individual fixed effects. Quota 100 raises eligible individuals’ retirement probability by 5.1 percentage points, and the response is 12.5 percentage points smaller for women than men, whereas the Fornero effect is delayed and more even across genders. The gender asymmetry survives alternative outcomes, narrower age windows, and pre-COVID restrictions. When a populist coalition redistributes, it reaches the part of the people whose careers satisfy the eligibility design, in keeping with the coalition’s familialism, while younger workers bear the cost through pay-as-you-go financing. The findings move research on populist incumbency from how it damages institutions to who benefits, and clarify the contrasting distributional logics of technocratic and populist governance. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, populism, retirement policy, gender inequality |
| JEL: | D72 H55 J26 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-008 |
| By: | Eduardo Fajnzylber (IDB); María Florencia Gabrielli (Universidad del Desarrollo); Ignacio Willington (UTDT); Manuel Willington (Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Abstract: | We re-examine the widely documented positive correlation between annuitisation and longevity by cleanly separating selection from causal effects—an empirical distinction that the literature has acknowledged but has not been able to identify credibly. Using administrative micro–data from Chile’s centralized pension quote system, we exploit monthly variation in the relative generosity of annuities versus programmed withdrawals generated by regulated PW formulas and market-based annuity pricing. These shocks serve as plausibly exogenous instruments for annuitisation in an IV bivariate probit model of post-retirement survival. Across horizons up to fifteen years, we find no statistically significant causal effect of annuitisation on survival for either men or women. The results imply that the observed longevity advantage of annuitants in Chile reflects selection rather than behavioral responses. By isolating the causal channel, the paper contributes to ongoing discussions on decumulation design by showing that moral-hazard-driven survival effects are unlikely to be a relevant policy concern in this setting |
| Keywords: | Annuities; Longevity; Moral Hazard; Retirement Choices; Instrumental Variables |
| JEL: | G22 D82 C35 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:399 |
| By: | Grégory Ponthière (ENS Rennes - École normale supérieure - Rennes, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential role of higher education subsidies as an insurance device against the risk of having a short life, that is, as a device reducing the variance in lifetime well‐being due to unequal longevities. We use a two‐period dynamic OLG economy with human capital and risky lifetime to study the impact of a subsidy on higher education (financed by taxing labor earnings at older ages) on the distribution of lifetime well‐being between long‐lived and short‐lived individuals. It is shown that, whereas the subsidy on higher education necessarily improves the lot of short‐lived individuals in comparison to the laissez‐faire, it is only when the subsidy is higher than a critical threshold that this can reduce inequalities in lifetime well‐being between long‐lived and short‐lived individuals. Whether one adopts the utilitarian or the ex post egalitarian social welfare function, the optimal subsidy on higher education lies above the critical threshold, but is larger under the latter social objective. |
| Keywords: | mortality risk, J17, I31, I28, higher education, human capital, insurance, longevity, I25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05649159 |
| By: | Giannone, Elisa; Miyauchi, Yuhei; Paixão, Nuno; Pang, Xinle; Suzuki, Yuta |
| Abstract: | How do depopulation and population aging evolve differently across regions within a country, and what are their implications for aggregate economic activity and regional inequality? Using spatially disaggregated data from Japan over the past several decades, we show that rural areas have experienced significantly faster depopulation and aging than urban areas, driven by low fertility and sustained out-migration of young cohorts. Regions undergoing these trends face declining local amenities and rising per-capita public service costs. To study the future evolution and economic consequences of these dynamics, we develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle spatial general equilibrium model. The model predicts widening geographic disparities in depopulation, aging, and economic activity in the coming centuries. While subsidies to declining regions can lower regional inequality, they come at the cost of lower aggregate efficiency and higher public service expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative economic geography; Aging |
| JEL: | J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21447 |
| By: | de Groot, Nynke; van der Klaauw, Bas |
| Abstract: | Active labor market programs targeted at older unemployed workers are often believed to be ineffective. We exploit a large-scale randomized experiment involving approximately 50, 000 older unemployed workers to evaluate an intensive job search assistance program that focuses on exploiting the social network. Participation in the program increases exits from unemployment insurance by 4.4 percentage points. Program participation reduces cumulative benefit payments by about €715, exceeding the program costs of €470. Participants compensate the reduced benefits receipt with higher earnings. We find that participants change their job search behavior according to the content of the program, and that both the trainer and the training group composition affect the program effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Randomized experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J14 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21464 |
| By: | De Donder, Philippe; Lefèvre, François; Leroux, Marie-Louise; Roquebert, Quitterie |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how marginal utility varies with health status (e.g. health-state dependence) while allowing this relationship to differ across income levels. Building on the existing literature, we develop a framework that quantifies the income adjustments necessary to maintain individuals’ wellbeing when they become disabled. Using SHARE data, we empirically estimate how health affects the marginal utility of consumption across the income distribution for older adults in Europe. Our results show that health-state dependence is negative among low-income individuals, indicating that their marginal utility of consumption declines when their health worsens. In contrast, at the very top of the income distribution, health-state dependence is positive, implying that marginal utility of consumption rises as health deteriorates. |
| Keywords: | Health-state dependence, Marginal utility of consumption, Income heterogeneity, SHARE; survey |
| JEL: | D12 I1 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131900 |
| By: | Samuel MacIsaac; Yuri Ostrovsky; Grant Schellenberg |
| Abstract: | How far adult children live from their aging parents can shape family support, caregiving, and job choices. But most data focus on people living in the same home—like with their parents—and rarely track them across long periods, missing key moments when they move out or return to help, or receive grandparent help from, an aging parent. This means that information on family members who no longer reside in the same household is scarce. Moreover, despite numerous international studies on what keeps families residing nearby (Michielin and Mulder 2007; Isengard, 2013; Compton and Pollak, 2015; Choi et al., 2020), less is known about how childhood circumstances could affect residential decisions later in life. |
| Keywords: | geographic proximity, adult, children and their parents |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202501100002e |
| By: | Esham, Nadia; Halim, Daniel Zefanya; Mattoo, Aaditya |
| Abstract: | Markets and public institutions must anticipate evolving care demand driven by East Asia and the Pacific’s exceptionally rapid demographic transition. To this end, this paper develops the Care Simulation Model, a demographic model that estimates gaps in childcare and eldercare needs. By integrating publicly available demographic data, the model captures both care needs and the availability of family caregivers across life cycles and cohorts, allowing the assessment of how demographic shifts may change reliance on family-based care. The paper quantifies unmet family care needs and translates them into estimates of potential market size, defined as the share of households likely to require care services outside the family and the corresponding potential employment creation in childcare and eldercare. By 2030, the childcare needs of an estimated 25 percent of households and the eldercare needs of 7 percent of households in ASEAN-5 countries may not be met within the family. After accounting for family availability and current care employment, the unmet need across 21 countries in East Asia and the Pacific translates into a potential gap of 19.9 million jobs in childcare and 34.1 million jobs in eldercare. The model offers a transparent, cross-country framework to inform care policy, workforce planning, and investment strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11417 |
| By: | Christophe André; Matthias Schief |
| Abstract: | Demographic headwinds are set to weaken economic growth in OECD countries over the coming decades. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) provides opportunities for productivity gains, potentially alleviating labour shortages and boosting economic growth. However, little is known about how exposure to AI varies over the life cycle and what this may imply for AI deployment in ageing societies. This paper shows, using OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) data, that workers’ overall exposure to AI (automation and augmentation) exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern across age groups, albeit less pronounced when controlling for education, occupation and country. Exposure to automation is higher in younger age groups and declines rapidly with age, as experience tends to complement AI. Nevertheless, as a general-purpose technology, AI is bound to be disruptive. Reaping its benefits will require labour market reallocation, reskilling and upskilling, and business dynamism and innovation, which may all be weaker in ageing societies. |
| Keywords: | ageing, artificial intelligence, business dynamism, demography, economic growth, innovation, labour market policies, lifelong learning, PIAAC, productivity, reskilling, technological change, upskilling |
| JEL: | J08 J11 J24 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1870-en |
| By: | Naneh Hovanessian (Central Bank of Armenia); Elen Khanikiryan (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Hovhannes Khachatryan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of a large-scale government cashback program on non-cash payment adoption among pensioners in Armenia, a population traditionally reliant on cash. Using comprehensive administrative data covering all bank accounts of pension beneficiaries, we exploit the staggered rollout of the program across banks to identify causal effects on payment behavior. We document three main findings. First, financial incentives generate a substantial increase in noncash transactions, with effects reaching approximately 21 percentage points for transaction value and 24 percentage points for transaction counts after 18 months. Second, we find no evidence of broad-based digital payment adoption: the increase in non-cash payments is concentrated on the incentivized pension card and is partly offset by reduced use of other cards, suggesting substitution across payment instruments rather than a general increase in digital payment activity. Third, leveraging the removal of cashback eligibility for utility payments, we show that the effects are only partially persistent. Utility payments through pension cards decline sharply once incentives are withdrawn, with limited reallocation to other cards, indicating that a significant share of the observed behavior reflects strategic responses rather than durable habit formation. Overall, the results suggest that while financial incentives are effective in inducing short-run behavioral change, their ability to generate lasting shifts remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Cashback Program; Pensioners; Payment Behavior; Habit Formation; Substitution Effect |
| JEL: | D12 D91 E42 G20 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2026-02 |
| By: | Holden, Steinar (Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Markussen, Simen (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Røed, Knut (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Differentiation of the employer-born payroll tax may be a tool to raise employment for groups whose wage entitlements are set above market clearing levels – e.g., through collective bargaining, minimum wage legislation or implicit contracts. We provide an empirical evaluation of a reform in Norway in 2002 whereby the payroll tax for mature (62+) workers was reduced by 4 percentage points. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2-3% increase in total hours worked by persons aged 62-64. Approximately 25% of the tax cut was passed on to the workers in the form of higher hourly wages. |
| Keywords: | payroll tax, tax incidence, labor demand, labor supply, difference in differences |
| JEL: | H22 E24 J23 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18727 |
| By: | Laetitia Challe; Fabrice Gilles; Yannick L'Horty; Ferhat Mihoubi |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:teppwp:wp26-06 |
| By: | Kecht, Valentin; Lizzeri, Alessandro; Saidi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that the age at which CEOs are appointed has risen sharply over the past several decades. Using newly assembled data covering a wide set of firms, we show that this increase is concentrated outside the largest listed firms and driven primarily by longer and more diverse external career paths prior to CEO appointment. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with explanations based on demographics, schooling, or tenure, and are instead consistent with a matching framework in which rising demand for generalist human capital leads firms to trade off peak ability for accumulated experience. We investigate the forces behind this shift. Using variation in consulting networks, we establish that firms place greater weight on diversified managerial experience as operating environments have become increasingly uncertain and complex. We also provide evidence for a supply-side response in which prospective CEOs broaden their skill portfolio as demand for generalist skills rises. |
| Keywords: | Ceos; Aging; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | D22 J21 J24 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21397 |