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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Gavresi, Despina; Irmen, Andreas; Litina, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies population aging as an important driver of populism using multilevel regression analysis on individuals from European countries between 2002 and 2019. Unlike individual aging, we focus on population- level demographic change measured by the old-age dependency ratio (OADR), i.e., the ratio of people aged 65 and over to those of working age. which captures the structural balance between older and economically active populations. Using data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between population aging and populist attitudes, captured through voting for populist parties, political trust, and immigration attitudes. Our findings suggest that population aging is associated with declining electoral turnout, higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and increased anti-immigrant sentiment. These effects appear across both younger and older voters, indicating that aging societies influence political preferences beyond individual aging. They may operate through mechanisms such as economic insecurity, cultural backlash, or shifts in collective societal priorities. |
| Keywords: | Aging, Populism, Trust, Immigrant Attitudes |
| JEL: | D72 J10 P00 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1761 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of societal aging on income inequality in Malaysia, to date and in the coming decades. The study starts from the hypothesis that, all things equal, aging exerts upward pressure on inequality (Deaton and Paxson (1994, 1995)). Drawing on nationally representative household survey data over the past two decades, the study finds evidence in support of this hypothesis in Malaysia. This picture becomes even sharper when projecting inequality levels for the years when Malaysia is forecast to reach aged (2045) and super-aged (2056) status. Estimates show that between 2022 and 2056, overall inequality of individual incomes could rise by as much as 13 percent due to aging. The analysis then demonstrates that expansion of a social pension system would attenuate this projected rise in inequality. The paper also undertakes counterfactual exercises simulating the expansion of an old age social pension with various design variants. The variants considered would expand existing social transfers for older people. Given the public revenue and spending patterns in Malaysia, some of these design options are potentially manageable from a fiscal perspective. The analysis suggests that, relative to the observed situation in 2022, wider coverage of social pensions could have resulted in lower inequality in household per capita income among older individuals (by 12–26 percent), thereby lowering overall inequality (by 4-9 percent). This inequality-reducing effect of social pensions becomes even more marked when projecting estimates of inequality for 2045 and 2056. Moreover, the findings show that expanded pensions would have resulted in a lower headcount poverty rate in 2022 by 1.3–4.2 percentage points among the 60+ population, and by 0.5–1.9 points among the overall population. |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11356 |
| By: | Petra Landovska (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jana Votapkova (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing and declining fertility challenge public pension systems and raise concerns about financial preparedness for retirement. While wealth accumulation depends on socioeconomic characteristics such as income, education, and health, family size may also shape long-term saving outcomes. Two competing mechanisms may operate: childrearing may reduce wealth accumulation through higher expenditures and lower labour supply, while parents may also accumulate wealth to secure retirement and support their children's transition to adulthood. Using data from Wave 9 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study examines the association between completed fertility and household wealth among individuals aged 50 and older in the Czech Republic. We analyze more than 2, 000 households using ordinary least squares regression with multiple imputation and Rubin's rules. The analysis tests for non-linear fertility effects, distinguishes between real and nancial assets, explores age heterogeneity, and conducts robustness checks using alternative wealth definitions and restricted age samples. We find that fertility is more strongly associated with the accumulation of real assets than with financial wealth, consistent with the Czech-specific preference for saving through housing and other real assets. We also observe cohort-specific patterns linked to the pronatalist policies of the 1970s in Czechoslovakia, highlighting the potential importance of policies that reduce the economic burden of childrearing for young families. However, institutional and cohort-specific contexts should be taken into account when interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Household wealth, Private savings, Old-age security, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | J13 D14 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_12 |
| By: | MIYAMOTO, Hiroaki; SHINOHARA, Hiroaki |
| Abstract: | We study how rising longevity affects the long-run real interest rate in an overlapping-generations model with mortality risk and accidental bequests to the young. Longer lives increase retirement saving, which tends to lower the interest rate, but they also reduce such bequests and shift asset payoffs from young savers to surviving retirees, weakening aggregate saving. Public debt amplifies this second force. When debt is sufficiently high, further increases in longevity eventually raise the steady-state interest rate. Thus, longevity need not continue to depress interest rates: with large public debt, the relationship between longevity and the interest rate becomes non-monotonic. |
| Keywords: | demographic trend, fiscal policy, interest rate |
| JEL: | E21 E43 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:711 |
| By: | Arpad Abraham; Pavel Brendler; Eva Carceles |
| Abstract: | Private retirement plans have become an increasingly important component of house hold wealth in the United States, with nearly two-thirds of Americans having access to employer-sponsored defined contribution plans. These plans have significant tax advantages, as both employee and employer contributions are tax-exempt, while the returns remain untaxed until their withdrawal during retirement. We develop a quantitative life-cycle model that incorporates both private and public pension systems, the life-cycle profile of homeownership, as well as a detailed tax-transfer system. Our model is able to replicate key empirical regularities, such as the observed distribution of private retirement wealth by age and income and the age and income dependence of pickup rates. We show that these subsidies lead to “new†savings in the long run, as they do not crowd out savings in other assets, while there is some crowding out in the short run. At the same time, eliminating these tax advantages leads to a wider tax base in the short run, which allows the government to reduce taxation, generating substantial redistribution towards current generations. |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:26/830 |
| By: | Jesus Botero-García; Cristian Castrillon-Gaviria; Daniela Gallo; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra |
| Abstract: | Este documento estima los efectos del cambio demográfico sobre el crecimiento económico y las finanzas públicas en Colombia, considerando su impacto en el sistema de pensiones, el sector salud, la educación y otros componentes del gasto asociados al envejecimiento poblacional, así como sobre los ingresos fiscales del gobierno. Para este propósito, se utiliza un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC), que incorpora las interacciones entre sectores y permite evaluar los efectos del envejecimiento sobre el crecimiento económico, el gasto público, los ingresos tributarios y el balance fiscal. El análisis también contempla los efectos indirectos a través del mercado laboral y la acumulación de capital. Los resultados muestran que el envejecimiento poblacional constituye un desafío estructural para la sostenibilidad fiscal, con implicaciones significativas sobre el crecimiento económico y el empleo. Se proyecta un aumento persistente del gasto público, impulsado principalmente por mayores transferencias asociadas a los sistemas de pensiones y salud. Como consecuencia, el déficit fiscal primario se ampliaría de manera considerable hacia 2070 y la deuda del Gobierno Nacional Central se incrementaría hasta niveles superiores a 180% del PIB, generando un aumento significativo en el costo de financiamiento soberano. *****ABSTRACT: This paper estimates the effects of demographic change on economic growth and public finances in Colombia, considering its impact on the pension system, the health sector, education, and other expenditure components associated with population aging, as well as on government fiscal revenues. To this end, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed, incorporating intersectoral linkages and allowing for the assessment of the effects of aging on economic growth, public spending, tax revenues, and the fiscal balance. The analysis also accounts for indirect effects operating through the labor market and capital accumulation. The results indicate that population aging constitutes a structural challenge to fiscal sustainability, with significant implications for economic growth and employment. Public expenditure is projected to increase persistently, driven primarily by higher transfers associated with the pension and health systems. Consequently, the primary fiscal deficit would widen substantially by 2070, and Central Government debt would rise to levels exceeding 180 percent of GDP, leading to a significant increase in sovereign financing costs. |
| Keywords: | Cambio demográfico, Tasa de dependencia, Modelos de equilibrio general, Empleo, Gasto público, Déficit fiscal, Colombia, Demographic change, Dependency ratio, General equilibrium models, Employment, Public Spending, Fiscal Deficit. |
| JEL: | E24 E62 H50 H60 J11 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1349 |
| By: | Arsalan, Muhammad; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to investigate how financial self-efficacy (FSE), and retirement goal clarity (RGC) on affect retirement planning fulfillment (RPF). We propose these effect are mediated by Financial Planning for Retirement (FPR). We also contend that social activity (SA) and risk perception (RP) moderate the effect of FSE and RGC on FPR and retirement planning fulfillment (RPF), in a way that high levels of social activity and risk perception would augment the affect of FSE, and RGC on both FPR and RPF. A nonprobability purposive sampling technique is applied to gather data from 300 employees who are 40 years or older, from Pakistan's private and public organizations. A five-point Likert scale questionnaire is used to collect data, which was later analyzed using PLS-SEM. Results demonstrate that FSE significantly affects FPR and RPF. FPR in turn enhances RPF. However, RGC significantly enhances FPR, but insignificantly affects RPF. Hence, FPR negatively mediates between FSE and RPF, and positively mediates between RGC and RPF. With regards to moderation effects, SA significantly moderate between FSE and RPF. RP significantly moderate between FSE and RPF. This study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence on how individual psychological and behavioral factors, along with social and perceptual influences, shape retirement outcomes. The findings are significant for policymakers, financial advisors, and organizations in developing tailored retirement planning strategies to enhance financial well being in later life. |
| Keywords: | Retirement Planning, Retirement Goals, Financial Self-Efficacy, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341011 |
| By: | Israel Mu\~noz; Fernando Su\'arez; Omar Larr\'e; Arturo Cifuentes |
| Abstract: | We propose a framework for designing Target-Date Funds (TDFs) around an explicit return objective while controlling risk directly at the portfolio level through a declining Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint. In this approach, the regulator or sponsor specifies a CVaR glidepath that gives the portfolio manager enough flexibility to reach a target return with a reasonably high probability. The target return is determined exogenously from pension-design inputs such as retirement age, contribution rate, working years, life expectancy, and replacement-rate goals. This differs from conventional TDF design, where age-dependent asset-class limits are set without an explicit link to a required return. A key feature of the method is that it does not assume the manager selects an optimal portfolio each period. Instead, each month the manager draws an allocation from the set of portfolios satisfying the CVaR constraint. This yields a conservative evaluation of each glidepath: success probabilities are averages over admissible allocations, rather than best-case outcomes. We introduce two figures of merit: the probability of meeting the target return and the cumulative risk assumed over the life of the TDF. As a proof of concept, we apply the framework to Chile's 2025 pension reform using nine Chilean and global asset classes and a 40-year accumulation horizon. The results show that the transition age at which risk starts to decline is the most consequential design parameter, and that contribution density acts as a hard constraint: below a critical threshold, portfolio design alone cannot compensate for structurally low contributions. The framework is general and can be applied to any TDF designed around an explicit return objective. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.13618 |
| By: | Patrick Moran (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Patrick Schneider (Imperial Business School) |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/40 |
| By: | Andreas Hornstein; Marianna Kudlyak |
| Abstract: | Using CPS microdata, 1976-2024, we estimate trend and cyclical components of unemployment and labor force participation for 44 age-gender-education groups. We fit a parsimonious state-space model in which each series is the sum of latent cohort and time-varying age effects and a latent cyclical factor shared across unemployment and participation, without imposing structural covariates. Aggregating group trends with observed population shares, we find that population aging and educational upgrading explain most long-run movements in aggregate trends, while cohort effects drive large gender differences in participation. Combining our estimates with demographic projections and an estimated cohort model of education shares, we forecast that over the next two decades, trend participation declines by about 1.5 pp and trend unemployment falls by about 0.4 pp, remaining historically low. |
| Keywords: | Labor force participation rate; Unemployment Rates; Demographic Composition; Age Effects |
| JEL: | E24 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:103386 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries are currently experiencing fertility declines at earlier developmental stages than historical precedents. However, the specific economic threshold at which fertility falls below the replacement level (2.1) remains under-analyzed. This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset to systematically visualize this threshold and quantify the economic discrepancy between historical and modern transitions. We demonstrate that today's developing economies reach the replacement level at significantly lower income levels than high-income economies did. This acceleration is driven by the rapid diffusion of health and education best practices and urbanization. Consequently, these nations face the dual challenge of "premature aging" and underdeveloped institutions. We conclude that sustainable development strategies must urgently shift from simple population control to building resilient social systems capable of withstanding these demographic headwinds. |
| Keywords: | Fertility decline, Demographic transition, Sustainable development, Premature aging, Replacement level fertility |
| JEL: | O1 O5 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-011 |
| By: | Sang-Ha Yoon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The Demographic Shock and the Productivity Imperative<p> The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation driven by low birth rates and aging populations. While this demographic shift is a global phenomenon, South Korea is experiencing it at an unprecedented speed. This change is not merely a social issue but a fundamental economic shock that alters the core engines of growth: labor and capital.<p> As the working-age population shrinks, the contribution of labor to economic growth inevitably turns negative. Consequently, sustaining economic growth depends entirely on productivity. The central challenge for policymakers is no longer just how to expand the workforce, but how to reconfigure the economy to produce more with fewer people through innovation and efficiency.<p> This report analyzes the impact of demographic changes on Korea's productivity, drawing lessons from Japan’s experience and utilizing economic simulations. It explores how aging affects investment incentives and why “intangible assets”—such as technology, software, and organizational know-how—are critical for Korea's economic survival. Furthermore, it highlights how global financial conditions can act as a buffer for Korea's open economy. |
| Keywords: | Global Demographic Change; Global Spillover; Productivity |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022504 |
| By: | Sang-Ha Yoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Hyo Sang Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jiheum Yeon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jung Eun Yoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Yena Song (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jiyun Lee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Jinwook Hur (Sookmyung Women's University) |
| Abstract: | 전 세계가 저출생과 고령화가 동시에 진행되는 인구학적 전환을 겪고 있는 가운데 한국은 그 속도가 특히 빠른 상황이다. 이러한 인구구조 변화는 금리, 성장, 산업구조, 정부재정, 대외 부문에 걸쳐 광범위한 구조적 변화를 유발하고 있다. 본 보고서에서 글로벌 인구구조 변화가 한국경제의 중립금리, 생산성, 산업·무역, 재정, 대외 부문에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하고 통합적 정책대응을 제시하고자 한다. As the world undergoes a demographic transition characterized by simultaneous low fertility and population aging, Korea is experiencing this shift at a particularly rapid pace. These demographic changes are triggering extensive structural transformations across interest rates, growth, industrial structure, government finances, and external balances. This report quantitatively evaluates the impact of global demographic changes on five pillars of the Korean economy—neutral interest rates, productivity, industry and trade, public finance, and external sector—and presents integrated policy responses. |
| Keywords: | Global Demography;Macroeconomy;Economic growth;Economic outlook |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:022527 |
| By: | Weber, Jeremy; McCoy, Shawn; Black, Katie Jo; Harleman, Max |
| Abstract: | Can turning an environmental hazard into an amenity help sustain communities facing industrial and population decline? We study Pennsylvania coal communities over three decades, estimating how mine-impaired waterways and their restoration affected population growth as mining and manufacturing declined regionally. We find that communities with mine-impaired waterways and no restoration had 4 percentage points less population growth than similar nearby communities, leading to depopulation for many. Even partial restoration offset this effect, with growth driven by college-educated individuals and those age 65 and older. The presence of mine water treatment systems, usually a series of wetlands and ponds, did not affect population growth apart from effects on water quality. In the face of major economic transitions, environmental restoration can help communities retain and attract residents, thereby advancing the goals of traditional place-based economic development incentives. |
| Keywords: | Mine Drainage; Amenities, Population, Coal, Pollution Mitigation |
| JEL: | O13 Q52 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129168 |
| By: | Chiara Micheletti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Cosmo Strozza (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Alyson A. van Raalte (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Iñaki Permanyer |
| Abstract: | Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are among the leading causes of death in high-income countries and represent a major source of morbidity across the life course. Understanding how the time spent with CVD has evolved over time and how it differs between men and women requires going beyond summary measures of health expectancy, which condense complex health trajectories into a single number. Methods: Using Danish population registers from 2005 to 2018, we employ novel bivariate age-at-death distributions to examine how the experience of cardiovascular morbidity is distributed across the population, how it has changed over time and how it differs between sexes. Results: Our findings point towards an expansion of CVD morbidity, with individuals who experienced a CVD hospitalisation spending an increasing number of years with the condition prior to death. This occurs alongside a decline in CVD incidence, as a growing proportion of individuals reach advanced ages without ever being hospitalised for a cardiovascular condition. Women are more likely than men to die without ever experiencing a CVD hospitalisation, and spend fewer years with the condition before death. Conclusions: The coexistence of expanding morbidity and declining incidence reflects progress on both prevention and treatment fronts, and need not be interpreted as a sign of worsening population health. The bivariate framework and visualisations introduced offer a valuable complement to existing health indicators, capturing the full distribution of morbidity experiences that summary measures conceal. |
| Keywords: | Denmark |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-027 |