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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Niimi, Yoko |
| Abstract: | One of the key challenges that population aging poses is to ensure that people have an adequate level of saving for old age. The gendered aspect of old-age saving is particularly important given that women tend to contribute less than men to pension programs because of their weaker labor market attachment and lower earnings over their life cycles even though women tend to live longer than men and thus need to save more than men. Using data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, this paper assesses women's preparedness for old age by examining whether or not women are saving for old age and how much they are trying to save for that purpose outside of pension programs. It finds that, in comparison to married women, unmarried women are less likely to be saving for old age. The regression results also suggest that women in irregular employment and those with limited financial resources are less prepared for old age. These results raise serious concerns about the possible risk of old-age poverty among unmarried women, particularly those who have worked mainly as irregular workers, if at all, as they are less likely to be covered by the Employees' Pension Insurance System. |
| Keywords: | gender, old age, pension, retirement, saving |
| JEL: | D14 D31 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000344 |
| By: | Maebayashi, Noritaka |
| Abstract: | I develop an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations in which individuals choose their schooling and retirement lengths, reflecting the complementarity between physical and human capital. I propose a public pension system that promotes active aging and lengthens schooling without increasing income inequality. In the baseline model, this system does not raise social welfare because additional labor supplied by the elderly reduces leisure and depresses wages, while the Ben-Porath–type human capital gains are negligible. However, if greater elderly labor participation generates even small positive externalities—such as stronger senior work communities, better working environments for older individuals, and reduced loneliness or illness—then such the pension system encouraging active aging can improve welfare for all generations. |
| Keywords: | Active aging, Retirement, Education, Public pension, Heterogeneous agents, Endogenous growth, Overlapping generations |
| JEL: | E62 H55 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128720 |
| By: | Michaël Sicsic; Diana Hourani |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is a major structural trend across OECD countries, with significant implications for public finances, yet its effects on tax revenues remain relatively understudied. This working paper examines the effects of demographic change on tax systems by analysing the distribution of tax bases across age groups and assessing the impact of ageing. It also explores how tax design may further exacerbate revenue pressures. The paper then analyses the implications of population ageing for labour income tax revenues as the working-age population evolves and considers how the relative importance of other tax bases such as consumption, capital income, and wealth-related taxes, may change depending on policy design. It also presents simulations of tax-to-GDP ratios from 1950 to 2060 that isolate the mechanical effects of demographic change under a no-policy-change scenario. These simulations illustrate how population ageing may influence tax revenues across OECD countries over time. The paper also highlights how tax system vulnerability to ageing is shaped by both demographic trends and tax design. Finally, it discusses potential policy considerations and areas of further work. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaaa:75-en |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | The public social insurance system in Egypt plays a critical role in maintaining the cohesion of society within the country’s broader social protection framework. The system has a long history that dates back to the mid-19th century and includes various laws that have been introduced over time to provide different categories of workers with pensions and other benefits. As a result, Egypt has one of the largest publicly managed pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa region, one that supports a significant share of the employed population as well as provides pensions to the elderly, people with disabilities, widows, and orphans. This note outlines the key features of the pension system reform and modernization program. It also highlights the insights gained to inform adjustments to relevant policies and enhance administration and pension asset management. While the authors provide a summary of the parametric reform, a detailed assessment of its fiscal impact falls beyond the scope of this note. |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:202830 |
| By: | Coll-Black, Sarah; Hamandi, Ali; Beitman, Aaron; Tretyak, Andrey; Arias Salvador, Valeria |
| Abstract: | This working paper explores strategies and interventions that LTC systems in ECA could adopt to strengthen the climate resilience of people with functional limitations and their caregivers. After a short section on methodology and conceptual framing, the paper introduces the IPCC climate risk framework and outlines the main climate hazards projected for ECA, noting their varying frequency and intensity across the region. It then examines how individual vulnerability shapes the impact of these hazards, with a focus on older people and people with disabilities, whose functional limitations and care needs increase their susceptibility. The analysis considers biological and health factors, social circumstances, and structural conditions that heighten vulnerability to both climate shocks and gradual changes such as rising temperatures. The paper then turns to international experience, highlighting approaches from selected OECD countries that have modified their LTC systems or introduced innovations to protect people with care needs—and, in some cases, a broader population of older people and people with disabilities from climate risks. Building on these case studies and a wider literature review, the paper identifies a set of strategies across LTC system functions t hat ECA countries could apply before, during, and after climate hazards to maintain essential care, address emerging needs, and extend support to groups not currently covered. The paper concludes with questions for further research and analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:204708 |
| By: | Ahammer, Alexander (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Halla, Martin (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Austrian National Public Health Institute (GOEG); Rockwool Foundation Berlin; and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)); Heckl, Pia (ifo Institute; Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; and CESifo); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS); Rockwool Foundation Berlin, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Keywords: | Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity in eligibility, we find that participation increased regular, unsubsidized employment by 43 percentage points two years after the program ended. The gains are driven by transitions into new firms and industries, rather than continued subsidized employment, and we find no evidence of displacement effects for non-participants or spillovers to family members. The program had no measurable short-run health effects. |
| JEL: | J64 J08 J78 I14 H51 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsdps:number1 |
| By: | O'Keefe, Philip; Rongen, Gerton |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the case for a significant expansion of social pension coverage in Malaysia in light of global and Malaysian experience. It first defines social pensions and their diverse objectives. It then looks at global patterns of social pension coverage, adequacy, and spending, highlighting the diverse design trade-offs taken by different countries, including Malaysia. A key takeaway is that the umbrella term “social pension” encompasses a diverse set of programs where design differences are as important as common features. Following the global benchmarking, there is a discussion of the global evidence on the impacts of social pensions on a range of social indicators, including poverty, health and well-being, labor market behavior, and indirect effects on non-beneficiary household members. It then discusses specific design issues that need to be taken into account when considering expansion of social pensions. This is followed by analysis of the potential impacts on inequality and poverty in Malaysia of different social pension reform scenarios, presenting evidence of their potential positive distributional impacts. The paper concludes with suggestions for reforms of Malaysia’s social pension. |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:204885 |
| By: | Noy, Itay; Heinemann, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | Women around the world face a heavier care burden than men, restricting their participation in the labor force. At the same time, the shortage of quality, accessible, and affordable care services undermines human development and well-being. Limited investment in early childhood care and education reduces children’s learning and future earnings potential. Similarly, inadequate elderly care undermines health, independence, and well-being among older adults. Investing in care is, therefore, important not only for closing gender gaps but also for boosting human capital outcomes. It also makes a compelling economic case for investment, given the care economy’s potential to drive growth and create jobs in the context of ongoing demographic shifts. This note discusses how public works programs (PWPs) may reduce care burden, increase the provision of care services for those in need, and build skills for the care economy. Drawing on examples of World Bank-supported PWPs that provide childcare, the note explores how such programs can be designed and implemented, and what potential benefits and challenges early evidence reveals. |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:207143 |
| By: | Shuichiro NISHIOKA; Toshihiro OKUBO; Mari TANAKA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effects of population aging on manufacturing activity using municipality- and establishment-level data from Japan. Combining the Census of Manufacture with Population Census data for the 1980-2010 period, we exploit predetermined demographic structure to identify the impact of aging on local manufacturing outcomes. We find that population aging leads to large and statistically significant declines in total manufacturing employment, sales, and value added. These effects operate through both extensive and intensive margins: aging reduces the number of manufacturing establishments and lowers employment and output per establishment. We also document increases in manufacturing labor productivity and wages, driven primarily by the rapid exit of less productive plants in aging regions, with little evidence of changes in entry dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26042 |
| By: | Andreas Hornstein; Marianna Kudlyak |
| Abstract: | Using CPS microdata, 1976-2024, we estimate trend and cyclical components of unemployment and labor force participation for 44 age-gender-education groups. We fit a parsimonious state-space model in which each series is the sum of latent cohort and time-varying age effects and a latent cyclical factor shared across unemployment and participation, without imposing structural covariates. Aggregating group trends with observed population shares, we find that population aging and educational upgrading explain most long-run movements in aggregate trends, while cohort effects drive large gender differences in participation. Combining our estimates with demographic projections and an estimated cohort model of education shares, we forecast that over the next two decades, trend participation declines by about 1.5 pp and trend unemployment falls by about 0.4 pp, remaining historically low. |
| Keywords: | labor force participation rate; unemployment rates; Demographic Composition; Age Effects; cohort effects |
| JEL: | E24 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103327 |
| By: | Maddalena Davoli; Uschi Backes-Gellner |
| Abstract: | Using an online experiment, we study how awareness of the short- and long-term costs of part-time work shifts public attitudes towards mothers working part-time. By randomly providing information about the short-term (earnings) and long-term (pension) costs of part-time work in a two-treatment arms experiment, we find that individuals change their attitudes towards reduced working hours. Namely, respondents receiving information about the pension costs of part-time work are 22 percentage points more likely to suggest longer working hours for a hypothetical job seeking mother as compared to the control group without such cost information. The treatment effect is stronger for individuals with preferences for and experiences with part-time work (e.g., parents and individuals working part-time), and in regions with more conservative gender norms. Given that mothers' working hours are shaped not only by their own attitudes but by broader societal expectations, our findings suggest that low-cost information provision can meaningfully shift and possibly reduce part-time work for mothers. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0257 |
| By: | Blagica Petreski; Marjan Petreski |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2026-05/59 |
| By: | Carlos, Jean Clarisse T.; Celero, Jocelyn O.; Katigbak-Montoya, Evangeline O. |
| Abstract: | The increasing prevalence of aging populations in the Asia-Pacific region has led to significant changes in the demand for labor in caregiving, domestic, and healthcare sectors, particularly in economies such as Singapore, Japan, and Australia. These structural-demographic shifts have intensified the reliance on migrant workers, with Filipina women emerging as a critical labor force within the region's global value chains (GVCs). Despite their critical role in addressing labor shortages, these workers face precarious employment conditions, gendered inequalities, and limited access to social protections. The sustainability of such care labor systems raises critical concerns as aging societies continue to deepen their dependence on migrant labor, highlighting the need for robust policy interventions, mapping of care and value chains, and regional cooperation. The study investigates how global value chains (GVCs) and global care chains (GCCs) intersect in shaping the roles, experiences, and challenges of Filipina migrant workers in aging societies in the Asia-Pacific region. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, it explores policy frameworks, labor conditions, and projections to understand how domestic and regional interventions can ensure sustainable, equitable, and technology-enabled labor systems within the caregiving and healthcare sectors of Singapore, Japan, and Australia. Findings reveal that the future of work in aging societies is deeply gendered, transnational, and dependent on care labor mobility. Across the Asia-Pacific, the Philippines remains a major supplier of women workers in caregiving, healthcare, and domestic work—sectors that sustain the social and economic well-being of aging populations in Australia, Japan, and Singapore. Data from the Philippine Labor Force Survey (2023) and TESDA records (2023–2024) illustrate that women constitute an overwhelming majority of the country's care labor force, where female participation rates in caregiving training programs exceed 85 percent. These structural patterns reinforce the Philippines' comparative advantage as a provider of skilled, English-speaking, and culturally adaptable caregivers. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Care labor, Philippines, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Global Value Chains (GVCs), Global Care Chains (GCCs), bilateral and regional cooperation |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2026-12 |
| By: | Ahammer, Alexander (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Halla, Martin (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Austrian National Public Health Institute (GOEG); Rockwool Foundation Berlin; and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)); Heckl, Pia (ifo Institute; Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; and CESifo); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS); Rockwool Foundation Berlin, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | Providing recently laid offworkers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each other. For this we use a severance pay regulation in Austria, which generated a sharp cutoff after which workers became eligible to a severance payment of two monthly salaries. Our results indicate that this cash payment increased labor mobility by around 8% to 12%. This increase is much stronger for worker groups with lower baseline mobility rates. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, labor mobility, internal migration, commuting |
| JEL: | J18 J61 J65 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsdps:number3 |
| By: | Tripathi, Pragya; Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether early-life adversity (ELA) affects later-life health in India using nationally representative LASI data and quasi-experimental variation from cohort differences and the Bengal Famine. We estimate probit models, KHB mediation, and GSEM across seven outcomes: underweight, food insufficiency, poor self-rated health, low cognition, depression, ADL, and IADL. ELA shows a monotonic dose-response relationship with all seven outcomes. Education mediates most of the ELA effect on cognition and IADL, while life satisfaction dominates for depression. Direct effects persist, indicating biological scarring. The Bengal Famine produced lasting health deficits, except for IADL where mortality selection dominates. Heterogeneity reveals larger cognitive penalties for women, stronger physical/functional penalties in Central/Eastern India, and wealth buffers underweight but not depression or self-rated health. These findings survive extensive robustness checks (IV-PSM, inverse probability weighting, alternative ELA measures, birth cohort analysis, and machine learning). Results imply that early-life interventions, especially universal education, can substantially reduce later-life health inequalities in India. |
| Keywords: | Early-Life Adversity, Later-Life Health, Ageing in India, Life-Course Epidemiology, LASI, Health Inequality, Bengal Famine |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J14 O15 I14 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341148 |