nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2026–05–25
seventeen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli


  1. On the Complementarity of Public and Private Pensions: Equity, Efficiency, and Optimal Design By George Kudrna; Chung Tran
  2. Pension Reforms, Longevity, and Late-Life Employment: Evidence from Sixteen Countries By Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Zhixiu Yu
  3. Mortality Heterogeneity and Actuarial Fairness in China's Notional Defined Contribution Pension System By Xiaoyu Dong; Hong Li; Kenneth Q. Zhou; Xiaobai Zhu
  4. Optimal investment and Pension policy in Pay-As-You-Go systems under forward utility and ageing population By Jennifer Alonso Garcia; Caroline Hillairet; Sarah Kaakai; Mohamed Mrad
  5. Trust, Financial Literacy, and Financial Behaviors: Shaping Retirement Security By Maya Haran Rosen; Annamaria Lusardi; Olivia S. Mitchell
  6. Spousal Retirement, Mental Health, and Household Resource Allocation: Evidence from Married Couples in China By Sixian Shu; Midori Wakabayashi
  7. Social security and retirement around the world: lessons from a long-term collaboration By Courtney Coile; David Wise; Axel Börsch-Supan; Jonathan Gruber; Kevin Milligan; Richard Woodbury; Michael Baker; James Banks; Luc Behaghel; Melika Ben Salem; Paul Bingley; Didier Blanchet; Richard Blundell; Michele Boldrín; Antoine Bozio; Agar Brugiavini; Tabea Bucher-Koenen; Raluca Elena Buia; Eve Caroli; Thierry Debrand; Arnaud Dellis; Raphaël Desmet; Klaas de Vos; Peter Diamond; Carl Emmerson; Irene Ferrari; Anne-Lore Fraikin; Mayu Fujii; Pilar García-Gómez; Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó; Nicolas Goll; Nabanita Datta Gupta; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Per Johansson; Paul Johnson; Michael Jørgensen; Alain Jousten; Hendrik Jürges; Malene Kallestrup-Lamb; Adriaan Kalwij; Arie Kapteyn; Simone Kohnz; Lisa Laun; Mathieu Lefebvre; Ronan Mahieu; Giovanni Mastrobuoni; Costas Meghir; Akiko Oishi; Takashi Oshio; Mårten Palme; Giacomo Pasini; Peder Pedersen; Louis-Paul Pelé; Franco Peracchi; Sergio Perelman; Pierre Pestieau; Corinne Prost; Simon Rabaté; Johannes Rausch; Muriel Roger; Tammy Schirle; Reinhold Schnabel; Morten Schuth; Satoshi Shimizutani; Sarah Smith; Jean-Philippe Stijns; David Sturrock; Ingemar Svensson; Gemma Tetlow; Lars Thiel; Maxime Tô; Julie Tréguier; Emiko Usui; Judit Vall-Castelló; Emmanuelle Walraet; Guglielmo Weber; Naohiro Yashiro
  8. Trajectoires de fin de carrière et transitions à la retraite au Québec selon le type de travailleur By Nicholas-James Clavet; Loïc Courtemanche; Raquel Fonseca
  9. The effects of social pensions on monetary and time transfers among the poor By Javier Olivera; Yadiraah Iparraguirre
  10. Health Inequalities Among Danish Retirees 2004-2022 By Paul Bingley; Nabanita Datta Gupta; Malene Kallestrup-Lamb; Alexander O.K. Marin
  11. Stepping Stone or Exit Path: Experimental Evidence on Training the Long-Term Unemployed By Arendt, Jacob; Bolvig, Iben
  12. Health financing and population ageing: evidence on the links between financial sustainability and financial hardship from the PASH simulator By Cylus, Jonathan; Thomson, Sarah; Serrano-Gregori, Maria; Martinez, Marcos Gallardo; Garcia-Ramirez, Jorge Alejandro; Evetovits, Tamas
  13. End-of-life Medical Spending: Patterns and Household Spillovers By Alexander Ahammer; Lea-Karla Matic
  14. The Citizens Standard as Counterfactual Benchmark: Empirical Analysis of an Alternative US Monetary Architecture, 1960–2055 By Solon, Neo
  15. Demographic Transition and the Dynamics of Income Distribution in Japan: A Bayesian State-Space Approach By Kazuhiko Kakamu
  16. Robots and Non-Participation: Evidence and Lessons from the US and Europe By Giuseppe Di Giacomo; Benjamin Lerch
  17. Credit Allocation for SMEs in an Aging Economy: Evidence from the COVID-19 and Global Financial Crises in Japan By Daisuke TSURUTA

  1. By: George Kudrna; Chung Tran
    Abstract: This paper studies whether shifting retirement financing from public to mandatory private pensions can deliver Pareto improvements across generations when the implicit return on public pensions is persistently below the market return on capital. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic earnings risk, endogenous labor supply and retirement, and a mixed public–private pension system. Calibrated to Australia -- where strict means testing creates strong complementarity between public and private pensions -- the model shows that higher private contributions raise aggregate wealth and future welfare but impose transitional welfare costs on current workers. The optimal contribution rate is around 14 percent of gross wages, yielding efficiency gains of 0.23 percent of lifetime consumption through reduced public pension eligibility and lower distortionary taxation. When combined with compensating transfers, the reform delivers a Pareto improvement across generations. In contrast, in systems with weaker or no means testing -- such as pension designs comparable to those in the Netherlands and the United States -- these gains diminish or turn negative, indicating that the linkage between private wealth and public pension entitlements is central to the scope for Pareto-improving reform.
    Keywords: social security, private pension, income taxation, labor supply, efficiency, life-cycle, stochastic OLG model
    JEL: H55 J26 H24 H21 D15 C68
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-34
  2. By: Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Zhixiu Yu
    Abstract: Employment rates for workers aged 55–64 increased by an average of 28.5 percentage points across sixteen countries between 2004 and 2019, with Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands experiencing increases larger than their entire 2004 employment rate. We examine what explains these dramatic gains and their substantial heterogeneity across countries and demographic groups. Using harmonized Health and Retirement Study data, we document three key empirical patterns. First, employment increases concentrated among women, healthier individuals, and more educated workers. Second, contrary to prior research, changes in weekly hours per worker are mixed rather than uniformly negative, with gains occurring primarily at the extensive margin. Third, employment growth accelerated during 2013–2019 compared to 2007–2013. While existing research examines longevity and pension reforms as separate channels, we show their interaction is quantitatively important. Longevity improvements amplify pension reform effects: when survival probabilities increase, actuarial adjustments for delayed claiming provide higher benefits collected over longer periods, strengthening work incentives. We formalize this mechanism in a lifecycle framework yielding testable predictions about margins of adjustment and demographic heterogeneity. Countries experiencing both pension reforms and substantial longevity gains show employment increases 15–20 percentage points larger than countries with reforms alone. This interaction helps explain why responses were exceptionally large in some countries, why growth accelerated after 2013, and why effects concentrate among healthier and more educated workers. Our findings suggest pension reform effectiveness depends critically on demographic context. Because effects concentrate at the extensive margin, policies raising retirement ages are more effective than hours flexibility policies.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:26-006e
  3. By: Xiaoyu Dong; Hong Li; Kenneth Q. Zhou; Xiaobai Zhu
    Abstract: We study actuarial fairness in China's notional defined contribution (NDC) pension system when mortality differs across income groups. Under current rules, individual account balances are converted into monthly benefits using an official annuity divisor that depends only on retirement age. We develop a mortality-differentiated Lee-Carter framework with group-specific baseline mortality schedules and a common period effect, estimated by combining national mortality data for 1994-2020 with CHARLS subgroup data for 2011-2020. To model cross-group mortality parsimoniously under limited data, we parameterize the baseline schedules using Hermite splines. Applying the model to China's NDC system, we find substantial actuarial unfairness in the current age-only divisor. The subsidy rises monotonically with income, implying both an aggregate actuarial shortfall and a reverse transfer from poorer to richer retirees. We then compare four implementable income-dependent annuitization rules, ranging from a simple bracket design to marginal-rule alternatives, and show that all substantially reduce the reverse transfer.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.17768
  4. By: Jennifer Alonso Garcia; Caroline Hillairet; Sarah Kaakai; Mohamed Mrad
    Abstract: This paper investigates optimal investment and pension policies in a Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) system supplemented by a buffer fund used as an intergenerational risk‑sharing mechanism. The social planner’s preference criterion is represented by non-zero volatility forward Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utilities, and explicitly accounts for both sustainability and adequacy constraints. The optimal policies are characterized in closed form, and an in-depth analysis of the impact of preference sensitivities on the pension scheme is conducted. A detailed numerical analysis is performed to evaluate the sustainability and benefit adequacy of this hybrid PAYG–buffer‑fund arrangement under a range of demographic, financial, and macroeconomic scenarios.
    Keywords: Mixed PAYG pension with buffer fund schemes; optimal investment and pension policies; Sustainability and adequacy constraints; Demographic and financial risk sharing; Forward utility preferences
    Date: 2026–05–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/406606
  5. By: Maya Haran Rosen; Annamaria Lusardi; Olivia S. Mitchell
    Abstract: We extend the literature on the importance of trust for financial behaviors by examining trust, financial literacy, and financial behavior related to retirement security. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we show that Trust in Financial Institutions aligns with behaviors supportive of retirement security, while Trust in Government Programs does not. We further document racial/ethnic differences: for White respondents, Trust in Financial Institutions relates positively to retirement outcomes, but not for Blacks or Hispanics. Moreover, Trust in Government Programs among minority households is linked to reduced stockholding and lower wealth accumulation. These findings inform efforts to strengthen retirement security.
    JEL: D14 G53
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35220
  6. By: Sixian Shu; Midori Wakabayashi
    Abstract: This paper examines how spousal retirement affects psychological well-being in Chinese households using 2016–2020 China Family Panel Survey data. Exploiting statutory retirement ages as instruments in a two-stage least squares framework, we identify causal effects of retirement transitions. Results show clear gender asymmetries in these spillover effects. For men, a wife’s retirement increases life satisfaction regardless of the husband’s labor-force status, with further gains in depression and marital satisfaction once both partners retire. For women, a husband’s retirement raises depressive symptoms while the wife remains employed, but this effect disappears after her own retirement, when life satisfaction significantly improves. Mechanism analyses suggest these effects operate through gender-differentiated adjustments in household labor allocation and joint consumption patterns. These findings underscore that retirement in China is a collective family-level transition rather than an individual event, highlighting the role of institutional constraints and gender norms in shaping the welfare of aging couples.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:84
  7. By: Courtney Coile (Wellesley College, NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); David Wise (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University); Axel Börsch-Supan (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, Max Planck Society); Jonathan Gruber (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Kevin Milligan (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada]); Richard Woodbury (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Michael Baker (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Toronto); James Banks (University of Manchester [Manchester], University of London [London]); Luc Behaghel (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Melika Ben Salem (Université Gustave Eiffel); Paul Bingley (Danish Natl Ctr Social Res, Kobenhav, Denmark); Didier Blanchet (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Richard Blundell (IFS - Laboratory of the Institute for Fiscal Studies - Institute for Fiscal Studies, UCL - University College London [UCL]); Michele Boldrín (Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis - WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis, University of Venice Ca’ Foscari = Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari = Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia); Antoine Bozio (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Agar Brugiavini; Tabea Bucher-Koenen; Raluca Elena Buia; Eve Caroli (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thierry Debrand; Arnaud Dellis; Raphaël Desmet; Klaas de Vos; Peter Diamond; Carl Emmerson; Irene Ferrari; Anne-Lore Fraikin; Mayu Fujii; Pilar García-Gómez; Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó; Nicolas Goll; Nabanita Datta Gupta; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Per Johansson; Paul Johnson; Michael Jørgensen; Alain Jousten; Hendrik Jürges; Malene Kallestrup-Lamb; Adriaan Kalwij; Arie Kapteyn; Simone Kohnz; Lisa Laun; Mathieu Lefebvre; Ronan Mahieu (CDC - Caisse des dépôts et consignations (France)); Giovanni Mastrobuoni; Costas Meghir; Akiko Oishi; Takashi Oshio; Mårten Palme; Giacomo Pasini; Peder Pedersen; Louis-Paul Pelé; Franco Peracchi; Sergio Perelman; Pierre Pestieau; Corinne Prost (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Simon Rabaté; Johannes Rausch; Muriel Roger (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Tammy Schirle; Reinhold Schnabel; Morten Schuth; Satoshi Shimizutani; Sarah Smith; Jean-Philippe Stijns (Sciences Po - Sciences Po); David Sturrock; Ingemar Svensson; Gemma Tetlow; Lars Thiel; Maxime Tô (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Julie Tréguier (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Emiko Usui; Judit Vall-Castelló; Emmanuelle Walraet (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Guglielmo Weber; Naohiro Yashiro
    Abstract: Declining labor force participation of older men throughout the 20th century and recent increases in participation have generated substantial interest in understanding the effect of public pensions on retirement. The National Bureau of Economic Research's International Social Security (ISS) Project, a long-term collaboration among researchers in a dozen developed countries, has explored this and related questions. The project employs a harmonized approach to conduct within-country analyses that are combined for meaningful cross-country comparisons. The key lesson is that the choices of policy makers affect the incentive to work at older ages and these incentives have important effects on retirement behavior.
    Date: 2025–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05144164
  8. By: Nicholas-James Clavet; Loïc Courtemanche; Raquel Fonseca
    Abstract: This study examines retirement‑transition behavior among Quebecers aged 55 to 74, separately by sex and worker type (employees versus self‑employed). We estimate multinomial logit models using Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD) to quantify the determinants of these behaviors. Results indicate that moves between worker types after age 55 are rare, and transitions between employment statuses almost always lead toward retirement. Many Quebecers, however, extend their careers via part‑time work, sometimes for more than five years. These pathways—sharply differentiated by sex, worker type, and time since immigration—suggest that promoting continued reduced work supported by partial pensions is more realistic than expecting fully retired individuals to return to full‑time employment. Cette étude examine les comportements de transition à la retraite des Québécois âgés de 55 à 74 ans, séparément selon le sexe et le type de travailleur (salarié ou autonome). Des modèles logistiques multinomiaux sont estimés à partir de la Banque de données administratives longitudinales (DAL) afin de quantifier les facteurs déterminants de ces comportements. Les résultats indiquent que les passages d’un type de travail à l’autre sont rares après 55 ans. Les passages entre les statuts d’emploi se font presque toujours vers la retraite. De nombreux Québécois prolongent néanmoins leur carrière sous forme d’emploi à temps partiel, parfois pendant plus de cinq ans. Ces trajectoires, fortement différenciées selon le sexe, le type de travailleur et la durée depuis l’immigration, suggèrent qu’il est plus réaliste d’encourager la poursuite d’un travail réduit appuyé par des rentes partielles que de miser sur un retour à l’emploi complet des retraités.
    Keywords: retirement transitions, gender, immigration, older workers, self-employment, administrative data, transitions à la retraite, genre, immigration, travailleurs âgés, travail autonome, données administratives
    JEL: J26 J16 J15 J61 J24
    Date: 2026–05–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2026s-08
  9. By: Javier Olivera (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Yadiraah Iparraguirre (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
    Abstract: We study the effects of Peru’s social pension program, Pension 65, on family transfers of money and time. The program provides pensions to individuals aged 65 and over who are officially classified as extremely poor and who do not receive other pensions. We use survey data matched to the program’s administrative registers and exploit the discontinuity around the welfare index that determines eligibility to estimate the intention-to-treat effects of the program on family transfers. We find that Pension 65 reduces monetary family transfers by 70% (the effect is 97% for men). There is a substantial increase in childcare hours among men, from 1 to 7 hours per week. This result is consistent with an increase in the number of young children in the household and with a reduction in time spent on leisure activities among men. Palabras claves: Pensiones sociales, transferencias familiares, uso del tiempo, pobreza JEL Classification-JE: H55, I38, J14, J26
    Keywords: Social pensions, family transfers, time use, poverty, ageing
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00553
  10. By: Paul Bingley; Nabanita Datta Gupta; Malene Kallestrup-Lamb; Alexander O.K. Marin
    Abstract: Using Danish SHARE data from 2004–2022, we examine income gradients in health among retirees ages 60–79 across functional, diagnosed, comprehensive, mental, and cognitive domains. Higher-income retirees are healthier across all dimensions, but the evolution of inequality differs across measures. Functional and comprehensive health gaps narrow over time because lower-income retirees improve, whereas mental health gaps remain large and persistent. Diagnosed and cognitive health show smaller, less stable gradients. Overall, health inequality at older ages is substantial but not uniform: physical health disparities compress, while mental health disparities show no sign of convergence.
    JEL: I14 J14
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35165
  11. By: Arendt, Jacob (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Bolvig, Iben (The Danish Center for Social Science Research)
    Abstract: This study estimates the effects of an employment programme for disadvantaged unemployed individuals. The programme emphasized on-the-job training and contracting the unemployed for a few paid work hours as a stepping stone into the labour market. Evaluated through a randomised controlled trial, the programme was found to accelerate transitions into part-time work. Contrary to its intention, it permanently increased the share of participants receiving disability pensions among the most disadvantaged groups. To explain this finding, we suggest that training, while enhancing productivity for some, simultaneously provided information of employability used in the assessment of disability pension eligibility.
    Keywords: unemployed, active labour market policy, disability pension, immigration
    JEL: J14 J15 J64 D61
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18618
  12. By: Cylus, Jonathan; Thomson, Sarah; Serrano-Gregori, Maria; Martinez, Marcos Gallardo; Garcia-Ramirez, Jorge Alejandro; Evetovits, Tamas
    Abstract: Background Countries around the world worry about the financial sustainability of their health systems as populations age; however, few have considered the consequences of future gaps in health financing on the risk of financial hardship due to out-of-pocket payments. If countries are unable to raise sufficient revenues to meet health needs, people will pay more out-of-pocket to use health services and risk experiencing catastrophic or impoverishing health spending. Objective We aim to simulate the effect of health financing gaps due to changes in the population age-mix on the risk of financial hardship from out-of-pocket payments and to identify relevant policy mechanisms. Methods Using the Population Ageing financial Sustainability gap for Health systems (PASH) simulator and the WHO Europe approach to measure catastrophic and impoverishing out-of-pocket expenditure, we simulate the effects of ageing-related health financing gaps on financial hardship in Bulgaria, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain through 2060. Results Our results indicate that all five countries will face significant health financing gaps due to population ageing. These gaps are expected to lead to increased out-of-pocket spending, resulting in higher incidences of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures to varying extents depending largely on each country’s current approach to revenue raising and co-payment policies. Conclusion We argue that countries should adopt diverse and sustainable health financing mechanisms and implement strong coverage policies to protect households from financial hardship as their populations age. This study underscores the importance of addressing health system financial sustainability to ensure progress towards universal health coverage.
    Keywords: Financial protection; Financial sustainability; Health financing; Out-of-pocket payments; Population ageing
    JEL: E6 N0
    Date: 2026–07–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137839
  13. By: Alexander Ahammer; Lea-Karla Matic
    Abstract: Medical spending is highly concentrated at the end of life and varies widely across patients, raising a first-order welfare question about whether marginal end-of-life spending reflects waste or generates meaningful benefits. Using Austrian administrative data, we document that end-of-life spending has grown markedly over time and remains highly dispersed even conditional on diagnosis, with predicted mortality explaining only a small share of the variation. We then study a largely underexplored margin: spillovers onto surviving spouses. Event study estimates show large and persistent changes in spouses’ employment and healthcare use around spousal death. However, these dynamics are essentially invariant to the decedent’s end-of-life spending intensity, a finding that is robust to different measures of spending intensity and to an instrumental variables design exploiting provider-level practice variation. Together, these results are consistent with an important role for inefficiencies in end-of-life care.
    Keywords: end-of-life, healthcare expenditure, efficiency, health shock, labor supply
    JEL: I10 I11 I12 I14 I18 J12
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12667
  14. By: Solon, Neo
    Abstract: This paper provides the first retrospective empirical reconstruction of the Citizens Standard monetary framework against US historical data. The architectural paper (Neo-Solon, 2026) proposes a constitutional monetary framework with three mode configurations and projects substantial retirement wealth outcomes under 2025 launch parameters. The present paper asks a different question: applied to actual US economic data from 1960 to 2025, what outcomes would the framework's Mode B configuration have produced for representative citizens, and how do those outcomes compare to what citizens actually experienced under the discretionary monetary system? Using an annual dataset drawn from authoritative public sources — FRED M2SL, BEA nominal GDP, BLS CPI-U, Census population, and S&P 500 total returns from Damodaran/NYU Stern through 2024 — we apply Mode B's K1 and K2 issuance formulas to four cohorts born in 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990. The central finding is that Mode B reliably produces a Stable Floor at retirement that exceeds the median American's actual retirement wealth by a factor of 1.9 to 4.0 across all four cohorts under central return assumptions. This finding holds for fully retrospective cohorts with high empirical confidence and for projected cohorts under all three return scenarios including pessimistic assumptions. A decomposition analysis reveals that approximately 96 percent of the framework's projected retirement wealth derives from compound equity returns on deposited principal; only 4 percent is the monetary principal itself. The Citizens Standard's contribution is to guarantee the structural conditions under which compounding can occur — universal participation, automatic deposits, constitutional locking, fee minimization, no early withdrawal — rather than to provide the wealth directly. Stress tests using Depression-era and stagflation-era equity sequences show that under catastrophic equity conditions during peak accumulation years, the framework's median advantage is significantly diminished or eliminated for the most adversely timed cohorts. Non-survivor analysis drawing on the Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton global returns dataset shows that the framework's structural advantages persist in any equity market that avoids confiscation, though absolute outcomes are proportional to country-level long-run equity returns. The paper concludes that the Citizens Standard is most accurately described as a structural retirement-security architecture — one that eliminates the behavioral and institutional leakages that cause median Americans to accumulate far less than a disciplined investor — rather than as a monetary-stimulus mechanism. Its principal social contribution is eliminating the savings-discipline lottery.
    Keywords: Mode B, constitutional monetary architecture, retirement security, k-formulas, equity, compounding, counterfactual, monetary
    JEL: D31 E21 E42 E58 G11 G17 H55 N11 N12
    Date: 2026–05–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129035
  15. By: Kazuhiko Kakamu
    Abstract: We develop a Bayesian state-space model for analyzing the dynamic evolution of income distributions using grouped income data. The model combines the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) with latent time-varying parameters to capture changes in the entire income distribution over time. Using Japanese household income data, we examine how demographic factors, particularly population aging and declining household size, affect inequality dynamics. The results show that demographic changes have heterogeneous effects across different parts of the income distribution and contribute substantially to the evolution of inequality. Counterfactual analyses indicate that aging and household size changes affect the lower and upper tails of the distribution differently. Because the proposed framework requires only grouped income data, it can be applied to countries where micro-level income data are unavailable.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.18138
  16. By: Giuseppe Di Giacomo; Benjamin Lerch
    Abstract: Key MessagesBetween 1993 and 2014, each additional industrial robot in the US displaced four workers from the labor forceAutomation hits workers with lower levels of education the hardest. While younger cohorts upskill, older workers exit the workforce permanentlyIn heavily automated US regions, exits stem from early retirement or disability insurance uptakeRobots also affect European labor markets, with job losses occurring in non-adopting firms that lose competitivenessTo mitigate AI and automation risks, policymakers must fund targeted upskilling and coordinate social safety net programs
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_83
  17. By: Daisuke TSURUTA
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between managerial aging, succession prospects, and credit allocation to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan. We focus on firms managed by elderly owners without designated successors, which we interpret as exhibiting weakened going-concern prospects. Using comprehensive firm-level data, we investigate firm performance, default risk, and bank lending behavior during normal periods and economic crises, particularly the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that firms with elderly managers and those lacking successors exhibit lower profitability, slower growth, and higher probabilities of default and exit, with these adverse effects becoming more pronounced during crises. Despite their weak fundamentals, such firms experience increased reliance on bank borrowing during crisis periods, suggesting potential credit misallocation. This pattern was particularly strong during the COVID-19 crisis, likely reflecting extensive public financial support. Our findings highlight how population aging can distort credit allocation in SMEs and provide new evidence on crisis-driven misallocation in an aging economy.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26039

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