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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Moïse Drabo; Raquel Fonseca; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | Informal care is a cornerstone of long-term care for older adults but may entail substantial psychological costs for caregivers. Using seven waves (2004–2022) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for 27 countries, we estimate the causal effect of providing regular personal care inside the household on depressive symptoms and quality of life. We estimate dynamic panel instrumental-variable (IV) models with country and wave fixed effects, exploiting the persistence of caregiving and using lagged indicators of caregiving provision as instruments to address reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity. Our baseline estimates indicate that providing informal care increases depressive symptoms by about 25% and reduces quality of life by roughly 6% relative to non-caregivers. These adverse effects are strongest for spousal caregivers and when caregiving is sustained over time, and they persist even after caregiving ends. Robustness checks using alternative outcomes, subsamples, and specifications suggest that the well-being costs of informal caregiving are sizable and pervasive, underscoring the need for long-term care policies that explicitly account for the mental health burden placed on family caregivers. |
| Keywords: | Informal care, Depressive symptoms, Long-term care, Quality of life, Older adults. |
| JEL: | I12 J14 J22 C33 H55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2602 |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen; Anne Katrine Borgbjerg; Jonas Maibom |
| Abstract: | We analyze how pension wealth influences retirement timing using 25 years of Danish administrative panel data on wealth and labor market status. Exploiting early-career variation in firm-specific mandatory pension contribution rates, we study labor supply decisions from age 55 onward. Greater pension wealth accelerates labor market exit: at age 63, the elasticity is about 0.3-an additional 100, 000 DKK (15, 000 USD) at age 55 reduces earnings by 1% at age 63. Effects intensify near statutory retirement age, driven by self-support and early occupational pension withdrawals. Mandatory savings raise retirement wealth but induce earlier exit, underscoring key behavioral responses for pension policy design. |
| Keywords: | Pension wealth, retirement, labor supply, mandated savings |
| JEL: | J32 J26 J22 D14 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26011 |
| By: | Todd Morris; Stefan Staubli; Benoit Dostie |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the welfare effects of five provincial mandatory retirement bans in Canada from 2005 to 2009 using linked employer-employee tax data. The bans sharply reduce retirements at age 65, with sizable announcement effects and heterogeneity across industries. Post-65 employment and earnings rise at least 14%, with gains comparable to a two-year increase in pension-eligibility ages. Older workers save more and spouses postpone retirement, benefiting public finances, with no observable effects on mortality or younger workers. Highly exposed firms reduce payroll costs via hiring adjustments while maintaining worker productivity and profitability. Our results suggest that protecting older workers was welfare-improving. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 J78 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35111 |
| By: | Cristina Bellés-Obrero; Manuel Flores Mallo; Pilar García-Gómez; Sergi Jimenez-Martin; Judit Vall Castelló |
| Abstract: | Spain, with one of the highest life expectancies globally and a rapidly ageing population, faces growing challenges in sustaining its pension, healthcare, and long-term care systems. This study examines trends in health inequalities among retired Spaniards from 2004 to 2022, using eight waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We analyse five health outcomes—limitations in daily and instrumental activities, number of chronic conditions, a composite health deficiency index, mental health (EURO-D scale), and cognitive performance—and use linear regression to assess income-related gradients, adjusted for age and sex. We also compute a catch-up time measure—the number of years a poorer individual would need to reach the same level of health as a richer individual—and concentration indices of bad health. We then examine how these inequalities change over time, allowing us to explore the potential influence of pension reforms within the context of Spain’s Beveridge-style healthcare system and tax-funded long-term care provision. Our results show no clear evidence that health inequality has increased from 2004 to 2022. These findings contribute to understanding how income disparities interact with social protection systems in ageing societies and inform the design of equitable health, long-term care, and pension policies. |
| JEL: | D31 H55 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35105 |
| By: | Qian, Yuting (Yale University); Gettel, Cameron (Yale University); Su, Jasmine (New York University); Grogan, Elyssa (New York University); Cohen, Inessa (Yale University); Rothenberg, Craig (Yale University); Chen, Xi (Yale University); Hwang, Ula (New York University and James J. Peters VA Medical Center) |
| Abstract: | Geriatric Emergency Departments (GEDs) -- accredited units that integrate geriatric-trained staff, age-friendly protocols, and post-visit care coordination -- have expanded rapidly across the United States. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of GED effects on hospitalization and mortality among Medicare beneficiaries. Linking data from the Health and Retirement Study to Medicare claims, we find that older adults treated at a GED were 9.7 percentage points less likely to be hospitalized and 6.1 percentage points less likely to die within 30 days, compared to those treated at a non-GED emergency department. Placebo tests and sensitivity analyses support causal interpretation. However, treatment effect heterogeneity analysis reveals that gains are concentrated among non-Hispanic white patients and adults under age 80; Black and Hispanic older adults exhibit no statistically significant benefit, consistent with persistent disparities in post-discharge care access and social support. These findings suggest that GED accreditation improves downstream health outcomes at scale, but that structural inequities outside the emergency department attenuate benefits for minority patients. |
| Keywords: | geriatric emergency department, Medicare, hospitalization, 30-day mortality, racial disparities, health and retirement study, accreditation, aging |
| JEL: | I11 I14 I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18556 |
| By: | Suphanit Piyapromdee; Lindsay Jacobs |
| Abstract: | Partial and reverse retirement are two key behaviors characterizing labor force dynamics for individuals at older ages, with half working part-time and over a third leaving and later re-entering the labor force at some point. The high rate of exit and re-entry is especially puzzling when considering the flat and declining wage profiles observed at older ages and uncertainty about future re-employment. Using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, we document the timing and prevalence of these behaviors and show that reverse retirees resemble permanent retirees across many observables, but differ notably in reported job stress and polygenic scores linked to stress sensitivity. To understand what drives these behaviors, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of retirement that incorporates uncertainty in wages and health, along with a novel ``burnout-recovery'' process representing the accumulation and dissipation of work-related stress. The model replicates key patterns in the data, accounting for over two-thirds of reverse retirement and 40 percent of transitions to part-time work---patterns that cannot be explained by health or wealth shocks alone. Our findings suggest that reverse retirement is largely a predictable response to recoverable stress rather than a reaction to shocks. Policy simulations show that part-time subsidies and sabbaticals enhance labor force attachment and welfare by reducing burnout, while eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test raises re-entry but also increases stress exposure. Together, these findings highlight the central role of stress dynamics in shaping retirement behavior and inform the design of policies to support work at older ages. |
| Keywords: | Retirement, Mental Health, Burnout |
| JEL: | J26 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2564 |
| By: | Noah Arman Kouchekinia; David Neumark; Tim A. Bruckner |
| Abstract: | With large gains in life expectancy, the population share of disability due to cognitive decline and dementia has substantially increased. Many older adults in the United States leave the workforce well before age 65. Correlational evidence suggests that leaving the workforce before retirement age could accelerate the pace of cognitive decline. We offer causal evidence, using HRS data for the United States, exploiting plausibly exogenous shifts in labor demand in local labor markets as a Bartik instrument for employment variation across these markets. We find substantial declines over time in cognitive scores stemming from negative labor demand shocks. These findings are concentrated among men aged 51 to 64, whose employment decisions and outcomes may be more sensitive to local labor market conditions than are these decisions or outcomes for women or for older men. Our evidence extends past work focusing narrowly on the retirement age window and provides further support to the notion that working to older ages may delay age-related cognitive decline. |
| JEL: | I1 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35117 |
| By: | Maria Hofmarcher (HS&I Health System Intelligence e.U.); Robert Holzmann; Reinhard Koman (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of social insurance pension wealth are available for a number of Western economies, including Austria for the year 2017. Such wealth may be compared with conventional wealth in terms of size and distribution and when we add such estimates to measures of wealth in the conventional sense, we arrive at measures of augmented wealth. In this paper, we estimate health and long-term care insurance wealth in Austria and add that to conventional wealth estimates for Austria to achieve a further measure of augmented wealth. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt worldwide to do this. The resulting magnitude of health and long-term care insurance wealth is substantial, namely EUR 238, 000 at the household level. It is comparable in scale to both pension insurance wealth (EUR 245, 000) and net wealth in the conventional sense, i.e. property plus financial wealth minus debt (EUR 250, 000). As regards distributive characteristics, health and longterm care insurance wealth is rather equally distributed (Gini coefficient of 0.31), compared to pension insurance wealth (0.45) and conventional wealth in Austria (0.73). The Gini coefficient for the new augmented wealth distribution (conventional wealth plus health and long-term care insurance wealth) is 0.47. |
| Keywords: | net wealth, health insurance, long-term care, augmented wealth, HFCS |
| JEL: | D31 H51 I13 |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:266 |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati |
| Abstract: | We study how demographic composition changes the transition costs of rapid automation adoption in a speed–capacity model where displaced workers differ by age and the young share of the displacement pool declines over time. Older workers face higher discouragement hazards and lower retraining completion rates, so demographic aging deteriorates aggregate transition outcomes even when institutional capacity is unchanged—a demographic composition effect. This effect interacts with adoption speed through congestion: fast adoption in an older displacement pool is worse than the sum of its parts (supermodularity). We derive a demographic gradient in optimal adoption speed: the planner adopts faster when the displacement pool is younger. Numerically, in the calibrated region, this demographic gradient becomes steeper when aging is faster. We also identify a demographic buffer: a timing boundary beyond which earlier adoption may dominate delay, although the sufficient condition is quantitatively demanding under OECD-style calibrations. We derive six cross-country predictions and an explicit measurement strategy. |
| Keywords: | AI adoption, demographic aging, labor force participation, retraining, optimal policy |
| JEL: | J24 J26 O33 E24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:wp_gob_2026_06 |
| By: | Alexander Bertermann; Wolfgang Dauth; Jens Suedekum; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | How do firms and workers adjust to trade and technology shocks? We analyze two mechanisms that have received little attention: training that upgrades skills and early retirement that shifts adjustment costs to public pension systems. We combine novel data on training participation and early retirement in German local labor markets with established measures of exposure to trade competition and robot adoption. Results indicate that negative trade shocks reduce training-particularly in manufacturing-while robot exposure increases training-particularly in indirectly affected services. Both shocks raise early retirement among manufacturing workers. Structural change thus induces both productivity-enhancing and productivity-reducing responses, challenging simple narratives of labor market adaptation and highlighting the scope for policy to promote adjustment mechanisms conducive to aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | training, retirement, trade, technological change, automation, robots, firms, workers, labor market |
| JEL: | J24 J26 O33 F16 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25139 |
| By: | Alexander Ahammer; Martin Halla; Pia Heckl; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity in eligibility, we find that participation increased regular, unsubsidized employment by 43 percentage points two years after the program ended. The gains are driven by transitions into new firms and industries, rather than continued subsidized employment, and we find no evidence of displacement effects for non-participants or spillovers to family members. The program had no measurable short-run health effects. |
| Keywords: | Long-term unemployment, temporary job guarantee, subsidized employment, health status. |
| JEL: | J64 J08 J78 I14 H51 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25160 |
| By: | Marius Brülhart; Aurélien Eyquem; Isabel Martinez; Enrico Rubolino |
| Abstract: | We study how inheritance affects labor supply over the life cycle, and we quantify its aggregate impact. Tracking earnings histories around some 135, 000 inheritances and 5, 000 lottery wins, we exploit the quasi-random timing and size of these events to identify labor supply responses with high precision. Earnings responses are negative at all ages but peak between ages 55 and 64, largely due to early retirement. Inheritances generate smaller impact responses than comparable lottery wins, consistent with anticipation effects. Our estimates match the predictions of a life-cycle model with endogenous labor supply and early retirement. Aggregating model-based responses across the population, our point estimate of the GDP cost of inheritance is 1.7%. The timing, size, and anticipation of inheritance all contribute to shaping its macroeconomic consequences. |
| Keywords: | inheritance; labor supply; lottery wins; life-cycle effects |
| JEL: | J22 D31 D64 G51 H31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25119 |
| By: | Mishra, Shruti; Goli, Srinivas; Rammohan, Anu |
| Abstract: | Health inequalities between socioeconomic groups tend to narrow at older ages, in studies using conventional cross-sectional data. This apparent convergence, however, is largely an artifact of mortality selection bias: the systematic dropout of the most disadvantaged individuals from the population before they reach old age. Our study quantifies the extent of this bias in India and provides corrected estimates of age-specific health inequality using pooled data from three rounds of the National Sample Survey, comprising 1, 278, 372 individuals and 6, 630 deaths. We document the wealth-mortality gradient using survival analysis and concentration indices, and apply Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to adjust health outcomes for differential survival, creating a counterfactual population that accounts for selection on observed characteristics. Finally, we implement Deaton-Paxson age-period-cohort (APC) models with and without selection adjustment. Our analysis finds evidence of a wealth gradient in mortality among working-age adults (Hazard Ratio (HR) for rich vs. poor: 0.576, p 0.10). Unadjusted age-health profiles flatten at older ages. However, after IPW correction, every age coefficient increases relative to unadjusted estimates, indicating systematic underestimation of poor health at all ages. Mortality selection bias significantly underestimates the true extent of poor health among lower SES groups in India, masking up to 83% of the health burden among young adults. Correcting this bias provides a more accurate picture of population health with direct implications for resource allocation and targeting interventions toward vulnerable populations. |
| Keywords: | Mortality Selection, Health Inequality, Inverse Probability Weighting, Age-Period-Cohort Analysis, Economics and Human Biology, India |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J11 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340190 |
| By: | Johannes W. Fedderke; Neryvia Pillay Bell |
| Keywords: | Financial Markets, Government spending, political economy, Research Methods, South Africa |
| JEL: | D14 D81 G23 G51 H55 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:880 |
| By: | Arentz, Christine; Winter, Henri; Simon, Jan-Henrik |
| Abstract: | Hintergrund: Seit Einführung des neuen Pflegebedürftigkeitsbegriffs 2017 ist die Anzahl der Leistungsempfänger in der gesetzlichen Pflegeversicherung deutlich über das demografisch zu erwartende Ausmaß angestiegen. In der Folge sind die Beitragssätze in der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung und die Prämien in der Privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung wiederholt gestiegen. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Charakteristika der Erstantragsteller in der privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung mit einem Fokus auf Pflegegrad 1, um Präventionspotentiale für die Versicherten und Reformelemente für die gesetzliche Pflegeversicherung zu identifizieren. Methodik: Die Datenerhebung erfolgte durch die Medicproof GmbH im Rahmen der Pflegebegutachtung der Privatversicherten in Deutschland, die von 2017-2023 einen Erstantrag auf Leistungen der Privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung stellten. Die Daten wurden in aggregierter Form zur Verfügung gestellt und mit deskriptiven Methoden ausgewertet. Ergebnisse: Über 70% der Erstanträge enden in einer Einstufung in Pflegegrad 1 oder 2. Versicherte in höheren Pflegegraden sind eher männlich und tendenziell jünger. Sie erhalten ein hohes Maß an professioneller Pflege, wohingegen Versicherte in Pflegegrad 1 zu 83% ausschließlich von privaten Pflegepersonen gepflegt werden. Versicherte in Pflegegrad 1 haben vor allem leichte Einschränkungen im Bereich der Mobilität. Daraus ergeben sich Einschränkungen im Bereich der Selbstversorgung und im Umgang mit Krankheits- und therapiebedingten Anforderungen. 30% der Pflegebedürftigen in Pflegegrad 1 werden bereits innerhalb eines Jahres hochgestuft, dabei verschlechtern sich vor allem die Mobilität sowie kognitive und kommunikative Fähigkeiten. Schlussfolgerung: Von dem erleichterten Zugang zu Leistungen der Pflegeversicherung profitieren in Pflegegrad 1 vor allem Pflegebedürftige mit leichten Einschränkungen, die vor allem Unterstützung bei der Selbstversorgung und dem Umgang mit Krankheits- und therapiebedingten Anforderungen benötigen. Diese Gruppe benötigt häufig noch keine inhärente pflegerische Unterstützung. Allerdings werden viele innerhalb eines Jahres aufgrund von Verschlechterungen in präventionssensitiven Bereichen in einen höheren Pflegegrad eingestuft. Die zunehmende finanzielle Beanspruchung der Pflegeversicherung unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit, Ressourcen bedarfsgerechter einzusetzen und Prävention als zentralen Bestandteil der Leistungserbringung zu stärken. |
| Abstract: | Background: In Germany, individuals in need of long-term care are entitled to benefits from the long-term care insurance system. In recent years, the number of beneficiaries has risen far beyond the level that could be expected from demographic trends. This development already places a considerable financial burden on the system and is projected to intensify further in the future. This study analyzes the characteristics of first-time applicants in the private long-term care insurance scheme, with a particular focus on Care Degree 1, in order to identify both preventive potential for insured individuals and possible reform elements for the insurance system. Methods: Data were collected by Medicproof GmbH in the context of care assessments for privately insured individuals in Germany who submitted a first-time application for long-term care insurance benefits between 2017 and 2023. The data was provided in aggregated form and analyzed using descriptive methods. Results: More than 70% of first-time applications result in classification into Care Levels 1 or 2. Individuals classified into higher care levels are more likely to be male and, on average, somewhat younger. They typically receive a substantial amount of professional care, whereas 83% of those in Care Level 1 are cared for exclusively by informal caregivers. Care Level 1 beneficiaries exhibit primarily minor mobility impairments, which in turn lead to limitations in self-care (Module 6) and in managing disease- and therapy-related demands (Module 5). Approximately 30% of individuals in Care Level 1 are reassigned to a higher care level within one year. The most pronounced increases in assessment scores occur in Module 1 (Mobility) and Module 2 (Cognitive and Communicative Abilities). Conclusion: The facilitated access to long-term care benefits primarily supports individuals in Care Level 1 with mild impairments who mainly require assistance with self-care and managing disease- and therapy-related demands. This group frequently does not yet require inherent nursing support. However, about 30% of them are reassigned to a higher care level within one year due to deterioration in prevention-sensitive domains. Given the substantial financial strain on the long-term care insurance system, it is advisable to allocate resources more strategically and to orient Care Level 1 more strongly toward preventive measures. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:thkivw:340173 |
| By: | Rune Vejlin; Hans Sigaard; Michael Svarer; Anne Katrine Borgbjerg |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of a reform-induced increase in the early retirement age (ERA) on labor supply, health, and healthcare utilization using detailed Danish administrative data and a regression discontinuity design. We show that while raising the ERA successfully increased employment, it also led to spillovers into other public transfers and increased the number of self-supporting individuals. We find that the increased ERA led to small and insignificant effects on GP visits and the use of painkillers, as well as borderline significant, small positive effects on the use of antidepressants and CVD medicine. Further analysis shows that individuals who were employed due to the reform had lower pre-reform income and wealth, while the individuals who were not employed despite being affected by the reform were characterized by worse health before the reform announcement. We argue that possibilities for exiting employment serve as a potentially important mitigating mechanism for health and healthcare utilization effects by sorting vulnerable individuals out of employment. |
| Keywords: | retirement reforms, health, healthcare utilization |
| JEL: | I18 J18 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26046 |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens |
| Abstract: | International migration policy for lower-income countries is still shaped by assumptions forged in an earlier era - when less-educated labor was globally abundant, skilled emigration was seen as an unmitigated 'brain drain, ' and development was expected to reduce migration. That world is gone. This paper reviews a large, recent research literature on migration policy for lower-income countries in the 21st century, where demographic decline is making labor globally scarce, skilled emigration can generate net long-term gains for origin countries, and sustained development often raises (not lowers) migration pressures for generations. This recent literature suggests that migration, managed through innovative institutions, can sustain fiscal systems in aging economies, catalyze investment in human capital at the origin, and accelerate structural transformation. Managing migration is not a substitute for macroeconomic development, but a catalyst and a major opportunity. Policy priorities include building regional free movement regimes, cultivating new destination-country partnerships, restructuring skill-training systems for a mobile world, and embedding migration into aid partnerships as a core driver of development. But far more research is required on what shapes the impact of these tools. |
| Keywords: | migration, immigration, immigrants, asylum, refugees, brain drain, development, remittances, technology, aging, demographic, pension, skill, workforce, labor, africa |
| JEL: | F22 F24 F35 F65 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25152 |
| By: | Annica Gehlen; Sebastian Becker; Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan |
| Abstract: | We provide novel evidence on the trade-off between insurance and incentives when adjusting disability insurance (DI) benefit generosity using a comprehensive measure that encompasses not only the effect on take-up but also behavioral responses of DI recipients with respect to employment and exit from DI. Based on administrative data from the German pension insurance and exogenous policy variation, we identify the relevant behavioral margins induced by a change in benefit generosity. Using a theoretical framework, we show that our comprehensive measure of incentive effects implies a fiscal multiplier of 1.83. Incorporating elasticities with respect to exit from DI increases the fiscal multiplier compared to estimates that only account for take-up elasticities. In the context of the model, we estimate that increasing benefits is welfare improving, given the insurance effects of DI benefits estimated in previous literature. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, pension reform, wealth effect, labor supply, mortality, RDD |
| JEL: | H55 I12 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25148 |
| By: | Witnie Compere; Bertrand Achou; Philippe De Donder; Raquel Fonseca; Franca Glenzer; Minjoon Lee; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | Ce papier examine les principaux déterminants socio-économiques et démographiques susceptibles d’influencer la d´ecision des individus d’offrir des soins de longue durée à leurs parents. Pour ce faire, nous nous appuyons sur des données originales issues d’une enquête menée en 2023 auprès de 2300 personnes résidant au Québec et en Ontario, âgées de 45 à 58 ans. Nous analysons successivement trois dimensions de la décision d’aide anticipée (le choix du bénéficiaire potentiel, le type de soins et l’intensité hebdomadaire envisagés) afin de saisir la complexité du processus décisionnel en amont de l’engagement dans l’aide informelle. Nous montrons que ces déterminants reposent sur des arbitrages distincts. Le choix de mode de prise en charge est principalement structuré par les contraintes organisationnelles (selon que l’aidant travaille à temps plein ou non) et la charge anticipée (selon l’espérance de vie du proche aidé), tandis que l’intensité d’aide envisagée d´epend de norme de genre, des contraintes de temps (notamment liées à l’emploi à temps plein et au départ à la retraite), de l’état de santé perçu du proche et de la relation de filiation. Cette hétérogénéité souligne que la volonté d’aider ne relève ni d’une logique purement affective ni d’un calcul strictement économique. |
| Keywords: | Dépendance, perte d’autonomie, aide formelle et informelle. |
| JEL: | D14 E21 G51 I10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2601 |
| By: | Elisa Giannone; Yuhei Miyauchi; Nuno Paixao; Xinle Pang; Yuta Suzuki |
| Abstract: | How do depopulation and population aging evolve differently across regions within a country, and what are their implications for aggregate economic activity and regional inequality? Using spatially disaggregated data from Japan over the past several decades, we show that rural areas have experienced significantly faster depopulation and aging than urban areas, driven by low fertility and sustained out-migration of young cohorts. Regions undergoing these trends face declining local amenities and rising per-capita public service costs. To study the future evolution and economic consequences of these dynamics, we develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle spatial general equilibrium model. The model predicts widening geographic disparities in depopulation, aging, and economic activity in the coming centuries. While subsidies to declining regions can lower regional inequality, they come at the cost of lower aggregate efficiency and higher public service expenditures. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1944 |