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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Giannelli, Gianna (University of Florence); Hegyi, Tamara (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | In South Korea, nearly 40% of the elderly population lives in poverty, one of the highest rates in the developed world. As the country undergoes a rapid demographic transition and the share of older individuals increases, understanding the drivers of old-age poverty becomes increasingly important. We study the economic determinants of poverty among individuals aged 65 and over using eight waves of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study covering 2006–2020. We adopt a longitudinal framework and estimate fixed-effects ordered logistic regression models where poverty status is measured as an ordered outcome. The results show that living apart from one’s children and residing in rental housing are associated with greater poverty. In contrast, co-residence with children, homeownership, and continued employment are strongly linked to lower poverty levels. Public transfers show no statistically significant association with poverty outcomes. These findings stress the importance of family co-residence, housing tenure, and labour market attachment in shaping old-age poverty in South Korea and suggest expanding housing support, employment opportunities, and strengthening social security coverage. |
| Keywords: | population ageing, old-age poverty, Korea, social security, pension system, fixed-effects ordered logistic regression |
| JEL: | I32 I38 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18488 |
| By: | Blundell, Richard; Britton, Jack; Dias, Monica Costa; French, Eric; Zou, Weijian |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we estimate the impact of health on employment for individuals close to retirement age. Estimating the model separately by race and gender, we find that racial differences in employment can be partly explained by the worse health of minorities as well as the larger impact of health on employment for minorities. |
| Keywords: | race; gender; health; employment |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137779 |
| By: | DENG, Yongheng; INOUE, Tomoo; NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko; SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | Why have the world's most rapidly aging economies experienced decades of low inflation followed by emerging supply-side price pressures? We propose a mechanism based on the interaction between demographic change and the irreversibility of physical capital. In a three-generation overlapping-generations model with Calvo pricing and irreversible investment (Ii ≥ 0), durable capital built during the demographic bonus period cannot be rapidly scrapped when population declines, creating a prolonged overhang of productive capacity relative to demand. As depreciation gradually erodes this overhang and the labor force continues to shrink, the economy eventually transitions from structural excess supply to a supply-constrained regime. Reduced-form evidence from 38 economies over 1965- 2019 is consistent with the model's predictions: aging is associated with lower inflation, the Phillips curve slope declines with the elderly share, and countries that experienced migration-driven population reversals exhibit more stable slopes-patterns that the irreversibility mechanism can account for. We interpret the negative Phillips curve slope estimated for Japan after 2015 as suggestive of the onset of the supply-constrained phase, though causal identification remains an important limitation of the international panel design. |
| Keywords: | population aging, inflation, irreversible investment, overlapping generations, supply constraints, international panel data |
| JEL: | E22 E31 E52 J11 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-3 |
| By: | Lizardi, Eduardo (Department of Health Economics and Management, University of Oslo); Fevang, Elisabeth (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Kverndokk, Snorre (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Røed, Knut (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Using Norwegian administrative register data, we show that having a lone parent in the terminal stage of life or close to a nursing home admission has a small negative effect on the offspring’s labor supply, both at the extensive and the intensive margins. While the effects at the intensive margin are reversed after the parent is admitted to nursing home or dies, the negative employment effects are not. We provide evidence indicating that labor supply changes around these critical events are primarily driven by income effects related to a realized or forthcoming inheritance and not by care requirements. Given the scale and quality of publicly provided long-term care in Norway, we conclude that while a parent’s need for care does trigger a significant rise in offspring’s (particularly daughters’) short-term absence from work, it does not noticeably affect their overall employment and earnings. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, labor supply of offspring, inheritance |
| JEL: | J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18508 |
| By: | Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Berriel, Rafael |
| Abstract: | Should workers or retirees bear the risk of economic growth? We show that efficient risk-sharing depends on how incentive provision – through consumption dispersion – affects the marginal value of resources, and how retirement promises back-load incentive provision. We use statistics for these two forces to show that perfect risk-sharing is optimal when the utility from consumption is logarithmic or when aggregate productivity growth is i.i.d. When neither condition holds, deviations from perfect risk sharing increase welfare. These deviations are, however, small due to the failure of a consumption-based stochastic discount factor (SDF) to price consumption growth. An augmented model that matches asset price behavior yields quantitatively relevant deviations from perfect risk-sharing. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:851 |
| By: | DENG, Yongheng; INOUE, Tomoo; NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko; SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | In population bonus periods, optimism about future housing demand fuels rapid construction and self-reinforcing price appreciation. In population onus periods, pessimism-amplified by the systematic failure of governments to revise demographic projections downward in a timely manner-drives structural oversupply, rising vacancy rates, and prolonged price stagnation. We formalise this mechanism through a present-value model in which the demographic regime asymmetrically shifts expected rent growth and the discount rate, and test it using annual panel data for 16 advanced economies over 1975- 2019. Pooled mean-group estimation shows that a rising old-age share significantly depresses long-run real house prices; the unanticipated ageing component (-8.826) substantially exceeds the government-projected component (-5.005). A rising youth share raises prices. Demographic structure further conditions monetary policy transmission: interest-rate cuts stimulate housing markets far more strongly in young than in ageing economies. |
| Keywords: | demographic optimism, demographic pessimism, population bonus and onus, housing vacancy and oversupply, demographic forecast errors |
| JEL: | E31 J11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-2 |