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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen; Anne Katrine Borgbjerg; Jonas Maibom |
| Abstract: | We analyze how pension wealth influences retirement timing using 25 years of Danish administrative panel data on wealth and labor market status. Exploiting early-career variation in firm-specific mandatory pension contribution rates, we study labor supply decisions from age 55 onward. Greater pension wealth accelerates labor market exit: at age 63, the elasticity is about 0.3 — an additional 100, 000 DKK (15, 000 USD) at age 55 reduces earnings by 1% at age 63. Effects intensify near statutory retirement age, driven by self-support and early occupational pension withdrawals. Mandatory savings raise retirement wealth but induce earlier exit, underscoring key behavioral responses for pension policy design. |
| Keywords: | pension wealth, retirement, labor supply, mandated savings |
| JEL: | J32 J26 J22 D14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12386 |
| By: | Boele Bonthuis; Yongquan Cao; Christoph Freudenberg |
| Abstract: | China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significant economic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system. This paper examines the evolution of China’s pension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the macro-fiscal implications of population aging and various pension reforms. Using a calibrated overlapping generations model that explicitly incorporates the rural–urban disparities, we project that population aging alone can slow annual GDP growth by about 2 percentage points between 2024 and 2050, while pension spending can rise by nearly 10 percentage points of GDP. The 2024 retirement age reform eases some of the long-term growth and fiscal sustainability pressures, raising GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points annually and reducing pension spending from 15.3 percent to 11.9 percent of GDP by 2050. We also use the model to examine a set of policy-relevant reforms—doubling Residents Pension Scheme benefits which are currently inadequate, linking benefits to life expectancy, further increasing the retirement age, and promoting urbanization—and find significant effects on fiscal and macroeconomic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Population Aging; Pension System; Urbanization; China; Fiscal Policy |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/027 |
| By: | Philippe d’Astous; Franca Glenzer |
| Abstract: | Previous research shows that the level of confidence in one’s financial ability is important for decision-making, especially in the realm of retirement planning. We expand on this literature by using survey responses to objective and subjective measures of financial literacy and retirement knowledge. We find that even though overconfident individuals are more likely to state that they have a retirement plan, they are less likely to have registered retirement savings, and when they do, they hold lower balances. Our findings highlight a potential mechanism in which overconfidence in one’s knowledge of the retirement system raises expected income replacement rates, which—consistent with a standard consumption–saving model—reduces private saving. Overconfident individuals also have biased inflation perceptions but take fewer protective actions to mitigate the effect of inflation. Finally, we find that overconfident individuals decrease their scores with repeated participation in different waves of the survey. These results suggest that calibrating confidence about one’s knowledge of the retirement system and of macroeconomic factors may be important for improving private retirement saving. |
| Keywords: | Overconfidence, Financial literacy, Retirement, Inflation |
| JEL: | D14 G53 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:22 |
| By: | Atalay, Kadir (University of Sydney, Australia); Staneva, Anita (Griffith University, Australia); Zhu, Rong (Flinders University, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of retirement on social capital using nationally representative Australian panel data. Exploiting the eligibility age for the Age Pension, we find that retirement significantly enhances social capital by increasing social connectedness and community involvement. These gains improve physical and mental health, with effects comparable to those of physical activity. However, older individuals’ perceptions of social relationships remain unchanged. Our findings highlight a key policy trade-off: while raising the retirement age may boost labor force participation, it may reduce opportunities for meaningful social engagement and, in turn, undermine the health of older adults. |
| Keywords: | retirement, social capital, hHealth, public pension |
| JEL: | H55 I10 I31 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18396 |
| By: | Karel van den Bosch; |
| Abstract: | The Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), or "50+ in Europe", is a study that focuses on the European population aged 50 and over. SHARE is a panel (i.e. longitudinal survey). For Belgium it is executed by teams at the University of Liège (for the French-speaking community) and at the University of Antwerp (for the Dutch-speaking community). This report explains the design of the Belgian SHARE sample, discusses how the sample was regularly refreshed by additional samples and looks at some indicators of the representativeness of the SHARE samples for the population of older people in the French-speaking and Dutch-speaking communities of Belgium. A worrying development is that the age group 55-64 is increasingly underrepresented in the SHARE samples for both communities. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | Jamie Hentall-MacCuish (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/14 |
| By: | Yana Rodgers; Joseph Zveglich; Khadija Ali; Hanna Xue |
| Abstract: | Demographics in Malaysia and Viet Nam are evolving rapidly, potentially disrupting traditional family support to older people. We estimate a set of Poisson random effects models with panel data from the Malaysia Ageing and Retirement Survey and the Viet Nam Aging Survey to analyze how living arrangements, marital status, and support from children influence the mental and physical health of older people. In Malaysia, having living children plays an important protective role for both mental and physical health, while living with a son appears to have a protective effect for physical health. Results are similar for Viet Nam, except older women, who are at greater risk of mental and physical health problems, appear to enjoy a greater protective effect for their mental health from a child living nearby than do men. Our analysis underscores the importance of social safety nets for the health of senior citizens living alone. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.20378 |
| By: | Tharp, Derek (University of Southern Maine) |
| Abstract: | The "retirement spending smile" (Blanchett, 2014), a U-shaped pattern in the rate of retiree spending change, has influenced how advisors project retirement spending. We replicate Blanchett's analysis using RAND HRS/CAMS data (2001–2009) and extend it with panel methods through 2021. The smile pattern appears when comparing different households at different ages but is not statistically detectable when tracking the same households over time. In our replication, coefficient signs match Blanchett's specification, but 95% bootstrap confidence intervals for Age² and Age include zero — the curvature is not statistically distinguishable from simple linear decline. We also document that the ln(Spending) coefficient sign depends on whether spending is measured at interval start or end, an implementation choice unspecified in the original. The smile attenuation finding is robust to survey weighting. For individual client projections, a constant real decline (~1%, sensitivity 0–2% annually) is a more defensible baseline than assuming a smile. |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ctu3g_v1 |
| By: | Zineb Taleb (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Tarek Zari (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | This article provides an integrative narrative review of the economic, social, and institutional approaches mobilized to analyze the functioning, performance, and inequalities of the Moroccan pension system. Drawing on a structured examination of both international literature and Moroccan studies, the paper explores how challenges related to financial sustainability, institutional fragmentation, and unequal coverage have gradually emerged and intensified over time.The methodology is based on a critical and comparative review of key theoretical contributions, academic analyses, and national institutional reports. This approach makes it possible to identify points of analytical convergence, persistent limitations in the reform process, and dimensions that remain insufficiently explored in the Moroccan context. In doing so, the article highlights how economic models, social theories, and institutional frameworks contribute to a better understanding of the specific features of the Moroccan pension system, particularly those linked to labor market duality and the widespread presence of informality.The findings of the review point to four major observations. First, successive parametric reforms display structural limitations in restoring the long term financial balance of pension schemes. Second, significant inequalities persist between public and private regimes, both in terms of accrued rights and pension benefit levels. Third, the integration of self-employed and informal workers remains particularly challenging, despite recent efforts to generalize social protection. Finally, the absence of a unified institutional framework continues to constrain transparency, portability of rights, and overall equity within the system.The research makes an original contribution by proposing a coherent analytical framework that explicitly links theoretical models to Moroccan specificities. It also opens avenues for future empirical research, notably on replacement rates, actuarial returns, and the internal performance of the pension scheme managed by the CMR. |
| Abstract: | mobilisées pour analyser le fonctionnement, les performances et les inégalités du système de retraite marocain. En s'appuyant sur une analyse structurée de la littérature internationale et des travaux marocains, l'étude examine les mécanismes par lesquels les défis de soutenabilité financière, la fragmentation institutionnelle et les disparités de couverture se sont progressivement installés et renforcés au fil du temps. La méthodologie repose sur une exploration critique et comparative des contributions théoriques majeures, des analyses académiques et des rapports institutionnels nationaux, permettant d'identifier à la fois les convergences analytiques, les limites des réformes engagées et les zones encore insuffisamment explorées dans la recherche marocaine. Cette démarche met en évidence la manière dont les approches issues des modèles économiques, des théories sociales et des cadres institutionnels éclairent les spécificités du contexte marocain, marqué par la dualité du marché du travail et l'ampleur de l'informalité. Les résultats de la revue font apparaître quatre constats majeurs. Premièrement, les réformes paramétriques successives montrent des limites structurelles pour rétablir durablement l'équilibre financier des régimes. Deuxièmement, de fortes inégalités persistent entre les régimes public et privé, tant en matière de droits acquis que de niveaux de pension. Troisièmement, l'intégration des travailleurs indépendants et informels demeure particulièrement complexe, malgré les initiatives récentes de généralisation de la protection sociale. Enfin, l'absence d'un cadre institutionnel unifié limite la transparence, la portabilité des droits et l'équité globale du système. L'étude apporte une contribution originale en proposant un cadre d'analyse cohérent reliant les modèles théoriques aux spécificités marocaines. Il ouvre également des perspectives pour des recherches empiriques futures, notamment sur le taux de remplacement, le rendement actuariel et les performances internes du régime géré par la CMR. |
| Keywords: | réforme des retraites, système de retraite, soutenabilité financière. Classification JEL : J26, H55, E02 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Social protection, Morocco, pension reform, pension system, financial sustainability. JEL Classification: J26 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Maroc, sociales et institutionnelles Couverture sociale, Approches économiques, Approches économiques sociales et institutionnelles Couverture sociale Maroc réforme des retraites système de retraite soutenabilité financière. Classification JEL : J26 H55 E02 Type du papier : Recherche théorique Social protection Morocco pension reform pension system financial sustainability. JEL Classification: J26 Paper type: Theoretical Research |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05434457 |
| By: | Matthew J. Baker (Department of Economics, Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY); Joyce P. Jacobsen (Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, and Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | We study how property rights over land, capital, and output interact with cul-tural transmission to determine the welfare of the elderly. In our model, respect for the elderly emerges endogenously: adults transmit norms of care to children, which children later reciprocate when they become adults. We compare regimes of insecure rights over produced goods with secure rights over productive resources, showing that both can sustain elderly well-being through distinct channels. By distinguishing be-tween property rights to outputs and to inputs—and further between fixed and created resources—we uncover nonlinear interactions between cultural transmission, property institutions, and production technologies, and a general curvilinear pattern where the elderly are relatively better off compared to the middle-aged in either an insecure prop-erty right (i.e., common resources) regime or a high productive property rights regime relative to intermediate cases. Ethnographic evidence illustrates these mechanisms and helps explain cross-societal variation in elderly support. The model also demonstrates how demographic, technological, and policy changes can alter the conditions for elderly well-being across stages of development. |
| Keywords: | treatment of the elderly, overlapping generations, property rights, cultural transmission, intergenerational transfers |
| JEL: | E21 D15 J14 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2026-002 |
| By: | Boriana Goranova; Santiago Calvo Ramos |
| Abstract: | This Economic Brief analyses the effects of population ageing on public expenditure on health care in the EU. Health care expenditure projections show ageing will put upward pressure on public finances in the EU. The 2024 Ageing Report projects an increase in public spending on health care in the EU that may range from 4% to 20% by 2070. More critically, one third of the increase will occur already in the next ten years. In parallel, ageing will reduce the financial contribution base for sustaining of and investing in EU health systems. Other factors such as technological progress, AI and climate change will also have an impact on expenditure. Structural reforms accompanied by well-targeted investments need to be deployed in a timely manner to alleviate the effects of ageing on health care systems. The academic literature and recent EU experiences both suggest structural reforms with the largest potential to do so include improving budgeting governance, rebalancing towards primary care and prevention, integrating care (including with long-term care), improving hospital efficiency, benchmarking performance, cost-effective purchasing and workforce planning. Such reforms are supported at EU level, notably through the European Semester, and by EU funding, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility as well as structural funds and other EU instruments. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, health, healthcare reforms, public spending, ageing, demographics. |
| JEL: | H51 I18 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:088 |
| By: | Borgbjerg, Anne Katrine (Aarhus University); Sigaard, Hans (Aarhus University); Svarer, Michael (Aarhus University); Vejlin, Rune (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of a reform-induced increase in the early retirement age (ERA) on labor supply, health, and healthcare utilization using detailed Danish administrative data and a regression discontinuity design. We show that while raising the ERA successfully increased employment, it also led to spillovers into other public transfers and increased the number of self-supporting individuals. We find that the increased ERA led to small and insignificant effects on GP visits and the use of painkillers, as well as borderline significant, small positive effects on the use of antidepressants and CVD medicine. Further analysis shows that individuals who were employed due to the reform had lower pre-reform income and wealth, while the individuals who were not employed despite being affected by the reform were characterized by worse health before the reform announcement. We argue that possibilities for exiting employment serve as a potentially important mitigating mechanism for health and healthcare utilization effects by sorting vulnerable individuals out of employment. |
| Keywords: | retirement reforms, health, healthcare utilization |
| JEL: | I18 J18 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18390 |
| By: | Barschkett, Mara (University of Bonn); Tréguier, Julie (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of social security income on mental health. We focus on widowhood, a life event associated with large and persistent mental health declines, and exploit a reform of the Dutch survivor benefits system that introduced cohort-based restrictions in benefit eligibility. Using administrative data, we find that reduced access to survivor benefits increases antidepressant use by 9%, accounting for 35% of the overall rise in antidepressant use following spousal death. A mechanism analysis shows that survivor benefits stabilize mental health by smoothing living standards, highlighting the potential welfare gains from well-targeted income support policies. |
| Keywords: | widowhood, survivor benefits, mental health, antidepressant use, income security |
| JEL: | I12 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18385 |
| By: | Balázs Zélity (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether shifts in demographic structure have an im-pact on cross-border capital flows. Country-level panel data with global coverage is utilised in fixed effects regressions. Demographic variables are instrumented by their predicted values, which are calculated using a shift-share methodology. Local projections estimates complement the results with a dynamic perspective. The main finding is that there is a persistent positive relationship between a country’s old-age dependency ratio and its current and financial account balance – suggesting that population ageing increases net capital outflows. From the perspective of the current account, the mechanism is increased national saving, primarily by households, and exports. From the perspective of the financial account, the increased net outflows are happening primarily through a direct investment channel. |
| Keywords: | population ageing, FDI, saving, current account |
| JEL: | F21 J11 F30 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2026-005 |
| By: | Testori Giulia (European Commission - JRC); Franklin Rachel; Saraceno Pier (European Commission - JRC); Pertoldi Martina; Perea Milla Fernandez Daniel; Stut Martijn; Dijkstra Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The EU is experiencing significant demographic transformations, including population decline, ageing, and uneven migration trends, with rural and remote regions facing the greatest challenges. This report provides policymakers, regional stakeholders, and EU-level representatives with a comprehensive resource to navigate these shifts. It offers in-depth data, a taxonomy and policy fiches to categorize demographic challenges and options to align policy responses with regional characteristics and demographic trends. This contribution highlights potential policies approaches in the fields of economics, infrastructure, environment and energy, housing, education, services and health, emphasizing the need for evidence-based, place-sensitive and targeted interventions. A novel thematic analysis of cohesion policy funds allocation contributing to address demographic change highlighting its critical role in addressing disparities ensuring that they do not deepen regional inequalities is proposed. ""Territories and demographic change"" moreover highlights how strategic planning, administrative capacity and peer learning are key to foster cross-regional collaboration and innovative solutions. A key message is that by integrating demographic considerations into territorial policies, the EU can transform demographic challenges into opportunities, promoting sustainable growth, resilience, and social cohesion across all regions." |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143332 |