nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2026–01–26
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli


  1. The Effects of Pension Reforms on Health Inequality in Italy By Agar Brugiavini; Raluca Elena Buia; Giacomo Pasini; Guglielmo Weber
  2. How raising the full retirement age affects women’s early retirement choices: insights from the interaction of two policies By Elena Bassoli; Ylenia Brilli
  3. Aging and Housing Returns By Natee Amornsiripanitch; Philip E. Strahan; Song Zhang
  4. The Impact of Population Aging on the Household Saving Rate: The Case of Japan By Horioka, Charles Yuji
  5. Household Saving in Japan: The Past, Present, and Future By Horioka, Charles Yuji
  6. Dementia and Long-run Trajectories in Household Finances By Jing Li; Kathleen M. McGarry; Lauren Hersch Nicholas; Jonathan S. Skinner
  7. The Impacts of Social Pension Program on Labor Reallocation and Gender Equality: Evidence from China’s New Rural Pension Scheme By Huangfu, Bingyu; Jin, Songqing; Ortega, David; Shi, Xinjie
  8. Las cuentas de la Seguridad Social Ampliada. Series 2005-2025, v1.3 (Actualización para incorporar la liquidación de 2024 y el avance de 2025) By Ángel de la Fuente
  9. Precautionary Liquidity and Worker Decisions: Evidence from French Employee Saving Plans By Marie Briere; James Poterba; Ariane Szafarz
  10. Home vs. nursing care: Unpacking the impact on health and well-being By Elena Bassoli; Mathieu Lefebvre; Jérôme Schoenmaeckers
  11. Informalidad laboral y presión previsional: Simulaciones de sostenibilidad ante el envejecimiento poblacional By Jaroszewski Vladimir
  12. Exploring the Impact of the Restaurant Meals Program on SNAP Uptake by Elderly Populations By Chi, Xiaoyi
  13. Dynamic Mortality Forecasting via Mixed-Frequency State-Space Models By Runze Li; Rui Zhou; David Pitt

  1. By: Agar Brugiavini; Raluca Elena Buia; Giacomo Pasini; Guglielmo Weber
    Abstract: Using data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we explore whether the recent pension reforms enacted in Italy had an impact on the inequality in health among individuals. We construct a set of indexes measuring several health outcomes (both physical and mental) and analyze their evolution along time (across SHARE waves) from 2004 to 2022, by relating them to the households’ income. While we can observe some differences in the health-income gradient between genders, we do not find evidence of a positive relationship between the introduction of the pension reforms and an increase in inequality.
    JEL: I14 I38
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34655
  2. By: Elena Bassoli (ETH Zurich; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Ylenia Brilli (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; CHILD-Collegio Carlo Alberto)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how a reform increasing statutory retirement age from 60 to 64 affected women's incentives for early retirement. In Italy, women can anticipate retirement at 57 (with 35 contribution years), but subject to an annuity penalization. Using Italian administrative data, we compare women eligible for the early retirement scheme before and after the reform, finding a small effect on women's retirement age, but a substantial negative effect on annuity. Effects are stronger for women with low labor market attachment or working full-time, suggesting that reconciliation of paid and unpaid works is an important driver of early retirement choices.
    Keywords: statutory retirement; early retirement; women’s labor market attachment; social security wealth
    JEL: J16 J20 J22 J26 H55
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:30
  3. By: Natee Amornsiripanitch; Philip E. Strahan; Song Zhang
    Abstract: Older home sellers receive lower returns than younger home sellers. Homes sold by older people have fewer major renovations but higher rates of poor upkeep. Older sellers are also more likely to sell off-MLS (“pocket listings”) and to sell to investors, leading to lower prices. These patterns suggest that older sellers may be disproportionately disadvantaged by agents’ incentive to maximize fees through generating high sales volume instead of maximizing sale prices. Age-related cognitive decline makes the elderly more vulnerable. For causal evidence, we show that reforms making pocket listings more transparent reduced both the prevalence of pocket listings and the magnitude of the age gap in returns.
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34656
  4. By: Horioka, Charles Yuji
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of the age structure of the population on the household saving rate using time-series data for Japan for the 1955-2019 period. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between Japan's household saving rate and her dependency ratio (the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population) and that the latter has a negative and statistically significant impact on the former. This implies that the life-cycle model applies in the case of Japan, that trends over time in the age structure of Japan's population can largely explain trends over time in Japan's household saving rate, that the downward trend in Japan's household saving rate since the mid-1970s can largely be explained by the aging of her population, and that further population aging will lead to further declines in Japan's household saving rate, most likely into negative territory, in future years.
    Keywords: age structure of the population, cointegration, cointegrating vector, household saving, Japan, life-cycle hypothesis, life-cycle model, population aging, saving rate, unit roots
    JEL: D12 D14 D15 E21 J11
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000258
  5. By: Horioka, Charles Yuji
    Abstract: The primary objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan's household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and to make projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan's household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries, contrary to popular belief, and that, if we confine ourselves to the postwar period, it was only during the 25-year period from 1961 to 1986 that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan's household saving rate can largely be explained by changes in the age structure of her population, but declines in the saving rate of retired elderly households is a more important explanation for the recent decline in the household saving rate. However, it is likely that other factors such as the unavailability of consumer credit, the unavailability of social safety nets, high rates of economic (income) growth, tax breaks for saving, saving promotion policies, and high and rising land and housing prices are also partial explanations for why Japan's aggregate household saving rate was so high during the 1961-86 period and why it declined so much subsequently. As for future trends in Japan's aggregate household saving rate, it is likely to fall even further though not necessarily at a rapid rate.
    Keywords: age structure of the population, household consumption, household saving, Japanese economy, life-cycle hypothesis or model, population ageing, public pensions, saving promotion, social safety nets, wealth accumulation
    JEL: D10 D11 D12 D14 D15 D64 E21 H55 J14 J26
    Date: 2026–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000259
  6. By: Jing Li; Kathleen M. McGarry; Lauren Hersch Nicholas; Jonathan S. Skinner
    Abstract: Existing evidence suggests that wealth may decline before dementia onset, but the mechanisms underlying these reductions are poorly understood. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare household finance trajectories for individuals who later develop dementia and those who do not. We find that wealth divergence between the two groups is not explained by reduced earnings, higher healthcare spending, intentional “spend-down” to qualify for Medicaid coverage, state-dependent utility, or reverse causation by which wealth declines cause dementia. Instead, our results point to impaired financial decision-making beginning about six years prior to clinically recognizable dementia.
    JEL: G51 I10 I3
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34659
  7. By: Huangfu, Bingyu; Jin, Songqing; Ortega, David; Shi, Xinjie
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360649
  8. By: Ángel de la Fuente
    Abstract: En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización de las series de cuentas consolidadas de la Seguridad Social Ampliada (SSA) para incorporar la liquidación de los Presupuestos de la Seguridad Social de 2024 que se recoge en (IGSS, 2025), así como un primer avance de los resultados de 2025 basado en datos de ejecución presupuestaria hasta noviembre de ese ejercicio. Para una discusión detallada de la construcción de las distintas variables que integran las series, véase de la Fuente (2023), excepto por el avance de 2025, que se discute más abajo.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2026-03
  9. By: Marie Briere; James Poterba; Ariane Szafarz
    Abstract: This paper investigates the demand for precautionary liquidity versus commitment contracts among participants in employer-sponsored retirement saving programs in France. All firms in the sample offer medium-term investments; they cannot be accessed for five years. Some also offer long-term (LT) investments, which cannot be accessed until retirement. If a plan offers LT investments, its auto-enrollment default must include them. Workers who experience changes in access to LT investments as a result of job changes are about 6 percentage points less likely to take up the plan default option, and 3 percentage points less likely to participate in the plan at all, when exposed to LT investments. We interpret this as a preference for precautionary liquidity, but two-thirds of active choosers still allocate some contributions, although less than the default, to LT investments, consistent with demand for partial commitment.
    Date: 2026–01–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/401522
  10. By: Elena Bassoli (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]); Mathieu Lefebvre (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jérôme Schoenmaeckers (ULiège - Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich)
    Abstract: In this paper, we present estimates of the effect of different care settings on health and well-being outcomes. We use data from the French CARE Survey, which interviews individuals aged 60 and above, to assess the differential effect of living at home or in a nursing home on mortality, morbidity and well-being indicators. In addition, we differentiate the effect between for-profit and non-profit nursing homes. To do so, we apply a propensity score matching approach that controls for selection on observables by matching people living at home with those living in nursing homes. Our results are threefold. First, we observe a positive effect of being in a nursing home on health outcomes but a negative effect on other well-being indicators such as happiness and nervousness. Second, the ownership status of the nursing home matters and the positive effect is stronger for non-profit and public nursing homes. Third, residents in for-profit nursing homes appear to to be worse off than those in nonprofit institutions. These findings raise important questions for the future organization and the funding of long-term care.
    Keywords: Private vs public, Care, Propensity score matching, Nursing homes, Health outcomes
    Date: 2025–09–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05460270
  11. By: Jaroszewski Vladimir
    Abstract: Este trabajo analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA) frente al envejecimiento demográfico, la persistente informalidad laboral y la brecha de género. Se adopta el marco de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT) y se construye el Coeficiente de Presión Previsional (CPPₜ) como indicador central de equilibrio contributivo. El análisis combina datos observados (2018–2024) con proyecciones demográficas y laborales hasta 2050. Se modelan cuatro escenarios: inercial, aumento de la edad jubilatoria femenina, reducción de la informalidad y reforma combinada. Ninguna medida aislada revierte el déficit contributivo, aunque las reformas combinadas permiten contenerlo en torno al 1, 5–2 % del PIB hacia mediados de siglo. Un ejercicio de sensibilidad incorpora la dimensión de suficiencia: elevar el haber mínimo hasta la canasta básica total mejora la suficiencia, pero compromete la cobertura previsional, que podría descender hasta el 70 %. Los resultados muestran que la sostenibilidad del SIPA requiere una estrategia integral que articule ajustes paramétricos, formalización laboral y financiamiento complementario.
    JEL: H55 J11
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4810
  12. By: Chi, Xiaoyi
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of California’s statewide expansion of the Restaurant Meals Program (RMP) on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation among older households. Using a Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences (DDD) methodology, the study finds that the RMP increased SNAP take-up by 2.6 percentage points, representing a 21.7% increase from the pre-policy participation rate. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity, with younger seniors (aged 60–69) and counties with higher restaurant-to-population ratios experiencing the largest gains. While the RMP appears effective at reducing barriers to food access, its impact on participants’ overall well-being and nutrition remains a critical area for future research.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360880
  13. By: Runze Li; Rui Zhou; David Pitt
    Abstract: High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals are released. We propose a mixed-frequency state-space (MF--SS) extension of the Lee--Carter framework that jointly uses annual mortality rates and monthly death counts. The two series are linked through a shared latent monthly mortality factor, with the annual period factor defined as the intra-year average of the monthly factors. The latent monthly factor follows a seasonal ARIMA process, and parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm with Kalman filtering and smoothing. This setup enables real-time intra-year updates of the latent state and forecasts as new monthly observations arrive without re-estimating model parameters. Using U.S. data for ages 20--90 over 1999--2019, we evaluate intra-year annual nowcasts and one- to five-year-ahead forecasts. The MF--SS model produces both a direct annual forecast and an annual forecast implied by aggregating monthly projections. In our application, the aggregated monthly forecast is typically more accurate. Incorporating monthly information substantially improves intra-year annual nowcasts, especially after the first few months of the year. As a benchmark, we also fit separate annual and monthly Lee--Carter models and combine their forecasts using temporal reconciliation. Reconciliation improves these independent forecasts but adds little to MF--SS forecasts, consistent with MF--SS pooling information across frequencies during estimation. The MF--SS aggregated monthly forecasts generally outperform both unreconciled and temporally reconciled Lee--Carter forecasts and produce more cautious predictive intervals than the reconciled Lee--Carter approach.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.05702

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