|
on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Moshe A. Milevsky; Thomas S. Salisbury; Robyn Allen |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which groups with elevated mortality rates ex ante might opt out of guaranteed national pensions in favour of demographically aligned plans, which we label equitable longevity risk sharing (ELRiS) pools, even if this involves accepting some idiosyncratic risk. Technically, this paper develops a stochastic model of retirement income within an ELRiS structure that is calibrated to equate the discounted expected utility of a guaranteed national pension. The practical motivation for developing this alternative is that working members of First Nations peoples of Canada: (1) experience much higher mortality rates than average over their entire life cycle, and (2) some are actually allowed by current legislation to opt out of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). We then demonstrate that under reasonable economic preferences and parameters, a sub-group with a 10-year life expectancy gap relative to the population could attain equivalent lifetime utility by contributing a mere two-thirds to the plan, even if they were pooled with only 30 members. For a longevity gap of 20 years, such as between an Indigenous male versus a non-Indigenous female, the contribution rate falls to less than a third. The difference between the statutory and mandatory contribution rates to a guaranteed national pension and those needed within these self-sustaining pools is an implicit subsidy from Indigenous to non-Indigenous. From a policy perspective, this paper aspires to jump-start a conversation that sparks a change in a status quo, which is obviously unfair and inequitable. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.00122 |
| By: | Blundell, R.; Britton, J.; Dias, M. C.; French, E.; Zou, W. |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we estimate the impact of health on employment for individuals close to retirement age. Estimating the model separately by race and gender, we find that racial differences in employment can be partly explained by the worse health of minorities as well as the larger impact of health on employment for minorities. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2580 |
| By: | Anh Tuyet Nguyen (Independent Researcher); Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | The rapid aging of populations has prompted the introduction of social pension programs aimed at preserving the welfare of the elderly. However, adverse socioeconomic behaviors may dampen the intended policy effects. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, this study examines the impact of social pension receipt on expenditure patterns and material hardship among older adults aged 80 year or older in Vietnam. We find that social pension increases the risk of material hardship in rural areas and reduces non-food expenditures in urban areas. To explain these findings, we explore two potential pathways: economic behavioral mechanisms and social behavioral mechanisms. The results suggest that behavioral responses may offset the intended welfare benefits of social pensions, underscoring the need to account for such adjustments in the design of aging-related policies in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | social pensions, expenditure, material hardship, socioeconomic behavior, the elderly |
| JEL: | D10 H55 J14 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-027 |
| By: | Arapakis, K.; French, E.; Jones, J. B.; McCauley, J. |
| Abstract: | We document racial differences in total and out-of-pocket medical expenditures, using data from the Health and Retirement Study linked to Medicare and Medicaid records. While White, Black, and Hispanic households have similar total annual medical expenditures, minorities, who have fewer financial resources, benefit from higher Medicaid recipiency and face lower out-of-pocket spending. At age 65, White, Black, and Hispanic households incur on average $136, 000, $59, 000, and $68, 000, respectively, in out-of-pocket medical spending over the remainders of their lives. We use our model to evaluate a policy reform that expands public nursing home insurance. Given that White households currently pay the most out-ofpocket, they have the most to gain from the reform. In the absence of a highly redistributive funding scheme, this reform will on average redistribute financial resources from minorities to White households, illustrating how expanding public insurance can have unintended distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | Medical Spending, Medicaid, Medicare, Long-Term Care, Race |
| JEL: | G52 I13 I14 |
| Date: | 2025–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2579 |
| By: | Bartscher, Alina (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management); Mann, Katja (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | More and more countries around the world switch from defined-benefit, pay-as-yougo pension systems to funded, defined-contribution systems. This implies substantial wealth accumulation, yet simultaneously exposes individuals to investment risk. While it seems natural to expect that individuals’ investment decisions in pension and non-pension accounts are related, there is little empirical evidence. We compile a new microdataset on Danish savers and document how pension and non-pension investment decisions are linked. We find substantial positive spillover effects between risk-taking in pension and non-pension investments. High-return pension savers also earn the highest return on their non-pension savings, driven by active risk choices. Pension and non-pension investment choices are often made at the same time. An important reason for this are joint responses to individual and aggregate events. Additionally, there are direct spillover effects from changes in stock market policies to pension savings behavior, and vice versa. |
| Keywords: | Stock market participation; Pension savings; Portfolio choice; Return heterogeneity; Financial literacy |
| JEL: | D14 E21 G11 G41 G51 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2025_012 |
| By: | Sagiri KITAO; Nozomi TAKEDA |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-region overlapping generations model with endogenous migration to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of foreign workers in aging Japan. Migration decisions are modeled explicitly, driven by cross-country differences in wages, demographics, and fiscal systems across Japan and the countries from which the migrants originate. The calibrated model replicates the sharp rise in Japan’s foreign workforce over the past decade and projects that their share will peak in the 2040s before declining as demographic and wage trends in source countries evolve. Foreign workers modestly mitigate the decline in labor supply and output and ease fiscal pressures, though their contribution remains partial. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating endogenous migration in assessments of long-run fiscal sustainability in aging economies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25110 |
| By: | Ryoji Ohdoi (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how international asymmetries in population aging shape cross-country technology gaps and global growth. I develop a two-country, two-sector overlapping-generations model with endogenous technological progress free from scale effects. The analysis shows that, in the long-run equilibrium, the faster-aging country's relative technology declines through two mechanisms: reduced per capita labor supply and a reallocation of employment toward the non-tradable sector. Consequently, policies aimed solely at increasing labor-force participation are insufficient to prevent such relative technological decline, because the latter mechanism persists. Numerical simulations confirm these mechanisms and reveal potentially non-monotonic effects on global growth under large demographic asymmetries. I also quantify Japan's relative technological decline due solely to differential aging by calibrating the two countries to Japan and the United States. |
| Keywords: | International asymmetries in population aging; Overlapping generations; Endogenous technological progress without scale effects; Non-tradable goods; Sectoral reallocation |
| JEL: | F43 J11 O30 O41 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:302 |
| By: | Holthaus, Krista L.H.; Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study within-family differences by order of birth in survival and longevity in 19th century Netherlands. Using existing matched birth and death records from the Dutch provinces of Groningen and Drenthe, we report no significant differences in survival to ages 5 or 18 or longevity for those reaching adulthood by their order of birth among all siblings. When we allow the effect to vary by gender of the individual and of the older siblings, we find a small negative (positive) effect driven by same-(different-)gender older siblings, suggesting certain within-gender competition on survival. The effects, however, are small -- around 0.5 percentage points on survival levels above 75\% -- and are consistently restricted to early life. Longevity, once the individual reaches adulthood, is not consistently correlated with birth order for more flexible specifications. Importantly, we do not detect any differences by socio-economic status as captured by the father's occupation, nor do we observe a particular trend over time. This lack of observable differences by socio-economic status is noteworthy, especially given the radical changes during the study period, suggesting that it was homogeneously distributed by order of birth. |
| Keywords: | historical data, demographic transition, birth order, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | N33 I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18298 |
| By: | Alex Zhavoronkov; Dominika Wilczok |
| Abstract: | The unprecedented extension of the human lifespan necessitates a parallel evolution in how we quantify the quality of aging and its socioeconomic impact. Traditional metrics focusing on Healthspan (years free of disease) overlook the gradual erosion of physiological capacity that occurs even in the absence of illness, leading to declines in productivity and eventual lack of capacity to work. To address this critical gap, we introduce Peakspan: the age interval during which an individual maintains at least 90% of their peak functional performance in a specific physiological or cognitive domain. Our multi-system analysis reveals a profound misalignment: most biological systems reach maximal capacity in early adulthood, resulting in a Peakspan that is remarkably short relative to the total lifespan. This dissociation means humans now spend the majority of their adult lives in a "healthy but declined" state, characterized by a significant functional gap. We argue that extending Peakspan and developing strategies to restore function in post-peak individuals is the functional manifestation of rejuvenative biomedical progress and is essential for sustained economic growth in aging societies. Recognizing and tracking Peakspan, increasingly facilitated by artificial intelligence and foundational models of biological aging, is crucial for developing strategies to compress functional morbidity and maximize human potential across the life course. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.05208 |
| By: | Wu, Qi; Liu, Shuyun; Fan, Shenggen |
| Keywords: | International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343729 |
| By: | Isabella Marinetti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); France Meslé; Domantas Jasilionis (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Fanny Janssen |
| Abstract: | Background: Seasonal fluctuations in mortality significantly affect population health and remain an important public health challenge. As climate change increases temperature extremes and ageing populations heighten vulnerability, understanding the cause-specific drivers of these mortality fluctuations is increasingly urgent. Yet, detailed evidence on how different causes of death shape these mortality patterns remains limited. Data and Methods: We analysed monthly mortality data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics, disaggregated by cause of death, sex, and 5-year age groups, 2004-2019. Excess mortality for 17 major causes of death was quantified by comparing the observed age-standardised death rate (SDR) with the baseline SDR, defined as the average of the three months with the lowest mortality each year. We estimated both the absolute and relative impact of cause-specific mortality on overall seasonal mortality. Results: Heart and respiratory diseases were the leading contributors to excess mortality, accounting for approximately 40% and 15% of the intra-annual burden, respectively. The summer months exhibited significantly smaller excess mortality. Respiratory diseases showed the highest relative impact compared to the other causes of death. While baseline mortality decreased over time, the relative intra-annual burden remained stable or increased for specific causes, indicating persistent or growing seasonal vulnerabilities. Conclusion: Intra-annual mortality fluctuations in Italy were mainly driven by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and have remained stable over time despite improvements in overall mortality. These persistent patterns highlight unmet seasonal vulnerabilities and the importance of integrating cause-specific seasonality into health planning, particularly in light of ageing populations and climate change challenges. Keywords: Seasonal mortality; Causes of death; Excess mortality; Italy |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-036 |