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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Piera Bello (Bergamo University); Marius Cziriak (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research); Mario Padula (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Fees play a critical role in shaping the pension benefits provided by defined contribution (DC) pension funds. Even small differences in fees, when compounded over a long contribution period, can lead to substantial disparities in retirement income. In this study, we focus on Chile — a country with a large, mandatory DC pension system — to examine how individuals choose among pension fund administrators. Despite a regulated fee structure that ensures transparency and the absence of switching costs, we observe significant fee dispersion across providers and low switching rates among participants. Our findings reveal that individuals with higher financial literacy and a better understanding of the institutional framework are significantly more likely to switch providers, thereby minimizing fees. |
| Keywords: | Fees, defined contribution pension funds, investment mistakes, investor sophistication |
| JEL: | D14 G53 H55 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:26 |
| By: | Sturm, Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper studies firm adjustments in response to a working life extension of older female employees. Specifically, I exploit the German 1999 pension reform that eliminated an early retirement pathway for women, causing an increase in their early retirement age by three years for those born after January 1, 1952. Using high-quality linked employer-employee data and a difference-in-differences event study design, I show that firms that employed affected women substantially increased their number of retained female employees aged 60-62. However, this retention resulted in a significant reduction in the number of new hires and in a modest decline in the number of wage increases among incumbent employees. Further analyses suggest that the magnitude and type of firm adjustment largely depend on the firm-specific human capital required for the respective occupation. |
| Keywords: | firm adjustments, pension reform, internal labor markets, substitution effects |
| JEL: | D22 H55 J26 M51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuewep:333395 |
| By: | Johannes Hagen; Amedeus Malisa; Andrea Schneider; Jana Schuetz |
| Abstract: | We study the behavioral effects of a large-scale, repeated, and personalized reminder. Our empirical setting is Sweden’s annual pension statement, which is rolled out region by region to all working-age individuals. Combining this variation with unique individual-level user data from the national pension dashboard, we find strong and immediate effects. Dashboard users' likelihood of making a pension forecast rises by 28 percentage points in the statement week-a fourfold increase-before returning to baseline within three weeks. Remarkably, similar spikes occur each year, indicating that repeated reminders consistently reactivate attention rather than losing their impact over time. Complementary regional data on actual pension claims show a 33% surge in weekly claims during the week the statement is sent out. |
| Keywords: | repeated nudge, retirement planning, pension dashboard, pension information, digital engagement |
| JEL: | D83 H55 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12287 |
| By: | Alexander Bertermann (ifo Institute, University of Munich); Wolfgang Dauth (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University of Bamberg); Jens Suedekum (DICE, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Ludger Woessmann (University of Munich, ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | How do firms and workers adjust to trade and technology shocks? We analyze two mechanisms that have received little attention: training that upgrades skills and early retirement that shifts adjustment costs to public pension systems. We combine novel data on training participation and early retirement in German local labor markets with established measures of exposure to trade competition and robot adoption. Results indicate that negative trade shocks reduce training—particularly in manufacturing—while robot exposure increases training—particularly in indirectly affected services. Both shocks raise early retirement among manufacturing workers. Structural change thus induces both productivity-enhancing and productivity-reducing responses, challenging simple narratives of labor market adaptation and highlighting the scope for policy to promote adjustment mechanisms conducive to aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | training; retirement; trade; technological change; automation; robots; firms; workers; labor market; |
| JEL: | J24 J26 O33 F16 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:551 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome); Cinzia Castagnaro (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)); Francesca Centofanti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)) |
| Abstract: | Population aging challenges welfare systems, particularly in rapidly aging countries such as Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023), this paper examines aging dynamics through the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), the ratio of working-age (15–64) to old-age (65+) population. We apply a beta regression framework to analyze spatial convergence and a two-step decomposition to disentangle the contributions of cohort turnover, mortality, and migration. Findings show strong convergence in aging, with international migration partly mitigating demographic imbalance, while internal migration exacerbates it, increasing fragility in peripheral areas. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare sustainability and regional equity. |
| Keywords: | population aging; migration; potential support ratio; Italy; spatial convergence |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 C14 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00077 |
| By: | Jacob Berman; Adam Bloomfield; Sita Slavov |
| Abstract: | We use comprehensive tax data to study how saving behavior responds to the Health Savings Account (HSA) “catch-up” contribution provision, which raises HSA contribution limits for individuals aged 55 and older. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find a sharp increase in contributions among those previously near the limit and smaller increases among unconstrained savers. Induced contributions are not immediately withdrawn and do not appear to crowd out retirement savings. Responses are strongest among payroll contributors and long-term savers. However, married couples do not appear to coordinate their HSA behavior to take advantage of the complex spousal rules governing catch-up contributions. Our findings highlight how tax incentives shape HSA saving and suggest that tax-advantaged account design meaningfully affects household financial behavior. |
| JEL: | G51 H31 I13 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34499 |
| By: | Connor, Dylan S.; Sheehan, Connor; Jang, Jiwon; Kemeny, Tom; Suss, Joel; Molina, Mercedes; Xie, Siqiao; Gu, Zhining; Saenz, Joseph L. |
| Abstract: | Using a new database on the net worth and self-reported cognitive impairment for almost two million adults, this paper provides the first large-scale evidence linking community wealth to age-related cognitive decline. This assessment is timely as widening geographic wealth gaps in the USA fuel disparities in access to public goods and amenities, positioning community wealth as a critical determinant of cognitive health. Conditioning on personal wealth and other risk factors, we find that a standard deviation increase in community wealth is associated with a 6.7% relative risk reduction in cognitive impairment across the national population of older adults, rising to 13.7% for those residing in the poorest fifth of communities. Community wealth matters more than relative inequality, and its associated protective effects are larger for non-white, non-college educated, and low net worth householders. This is plausibly because these individuals rely more on the public goods and services underwritten by local affluence. The economic fragmentation of American communities thus poses a growing threat to the cognitive health of Americans, especially among those from socially vulnerable and marginalized backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | spatial wealth inequality; aging; subjective cognitive impairment; cognitive health; ADRD |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130328 |
| By: | Westerhout, Ed (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | Generational Accounting; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Population Ageing; Sustainability Gap |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:ed78d038-ad2e-4f6b-8550-3718ca0907fd |
| By: | Paul Bingley (The Danish Center for Social Science Research); Claus Thustrup Kreiner (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Benjamin Ly Serena (The ROCKWOOL Foundation Research Unit) |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic inequality in longevity is typically measured using a single socioeconomic indicator such as education or income. We combine multiple indicators—education, income, occupation, wealth, and IQ scores—and apply machine learning to measure inequality in longevity. Using Danish population-wide data spanning 40 years, we track mortality for the 1942–44 birth cohorts from age 40 onwards to estimate life expectancy by socioeconomic status. Individuals at the top of the socioeconomic distribution live nearly 25 years longer than those at the bottom. The socioeconomic gradient in life expectancy becomes 50–150% steeper when using multiple indicators. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy, Inequality, Machine Learning |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2514 |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Aubry; Yimeng Yin |
| Abstract: | The brief’s key findings are:(1)As people increasingly rely on their 401(k) assets for retirement, their exposure to market risk is a key issue. (2)A new survey shows that older retirement investors tend to be overly pessimistic about stocks, which likely affects their preferred asset allocation. (3)But comparable data suggest that they actually hold more in stocks than they would prefer, perhaps due to the growth of target date funds as 401(k) defaults. (4)So, while investors may have more in stocks than they seem to want, it probably helps them given their overly pessimistic views. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2025-10 |
| By: | Jared C. Carbone (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Maxwell Fleming (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Akio Yamazaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) |
| Abstract: | How does carbon pricing perform in an economy with a declining population growth? We develop an overlapping generations model calibrated to Japan. Using this model, we examine how demographic change interacts with green fiscal reforms, in which revenues from carbon pricing are used to improve the efficiency of the tax system. Our results show that demographic change erodes the tax base, so the fiscal response has a larger impact on welfare than the carbon policy itself. Relative to a constant population growth benchmark, ignoring demographic change can overestimate the welfare costs of carbon pricing by 11 percent when pension benefits are reduced and carbon revenues are used to cut capital taxes. Microsimulation analysis indicates that low-income households face higher short-run welfare losses under policies that are most efficient in the long-run, highlighting a trade-off between efficiency and progressivity in the design of carbon pricing in aging economies. |
| Keywords: | green fiscal reforms, carbon pricing, demographic change |
| JEL: | H22 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp202503 |
| By: | Sara Markowitz; Katie E. Leinenbach |
| Abstract: | Suicide rates among older adults have been rising over time in the United States. At the same time, more individuals have been suffering with chronic pain and illness, which are often underlying risk factors for suicide. As self-medication with marijuana has become common, we ask whether access to legal marijuana for medical and recreational purposes reduces suicides rates among older individuals. We find that suicide rates among older age groups decline following the opening of recreational marijuana dispensaries, especially among older Whites, and middle-aged White males and females with low levels of education. |
| JEL: | I0 K0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34519 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome); Francesca Centofanti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giovanna Ciaffi (University of Bari "Aldo Moro"); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes — L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 — in Central-Southern Italy, a wide area already experiencing depopulation due to factors unrelated to natural disasters. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on depopulation, age structure, natural dynamics, and migration. Results suggest an acceleration of the decline in the overall population of the area due to these natural disasters, especially among elder Italians, largely driven by out-migration, while natural demographic dynamics remained stable. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake caused declines in all age groups, whereas in 2009 population losses among elderly Italians were offset by gains in working-age foreigners. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters; demography; earthquakes; migration; Italy; depopulation |
| JEL: | J11 Q54 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00075 |
| By: | Marco A. Fernández (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Ana Gabriela Núñez Pérez (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Javier Patiño García (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | Este documento analiza las implicaciones fiscales y distributivas del decreto emitido en junio de 2025 que reduce progresivamente la edad mínima de jubilación para maestras, maestros y otras personas trabajadoras del Estado adscritas al régimen solidario del ISSSTE. Aunque la medida ha sido presentada como un acto de reconocimiento a la trayectoria del magisterio, sus beneficios aplican únicamente a quienes permanecieron en el sistema solidario, excluyendo a trabajadoras y trabajadores bajo regímenes de cuentas individuales o modalidades distintas de retiro. Más de 360 mil docentes podrán jubilarse entre tres y cinco años antes en un contexto donde la esperanza de vida supera los 75 años, lo que implica un aumento considerable en los años de pago de pensiones con cargo al erario. El análisis estima que el costo fiscal acumulado superará los 140 mil millones de pesos en los próximos veinte años, desplazando recursos esenciales para prioridades públicas como infraestructura, cobertura y calidad educativa. Mientras países comparables elevan la edad de retiro para garantizar la sostenibilidad de sus sistemas, México adopta una dirección opuesta que genera tensiones intergeneracionales y reduce el espacio fiscal para invertir en las nuevas generaciones. El informe examina el origen del decreto, sus efectos en la equidad entre cohortes y la sostenibilidad del sistema, y propone alternativas de política orientadas a conciliar el reconocimiento al magisterio con la responsabilidad financiera y el bienestar de quienes aún no ingresan al mercado laboral. |
| Keywords: | Pensiones públicas, Sostenibilidad fiscal, Edad de jubilación, Equidad intergeneracional |
| JEL: | H55 H75 I22 J26 H68 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:18 |
| By: | Yuichi Watanabe (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO), Chiba, Japan); Haruko Noguchi (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | There exists a globally growing concern regarding the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), and Japan is no exception, as lifestyle-related NCDs have a significant impact on public health. To prevent the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and control rising healthcare costs, the Japanese government initiated a novel annual health checkup program in April 2008. We examine how organized prevention programs affect healthcare outcomes, separately identifying screening effects versus behavioral intervention effects while documenting substantial heterogeneity across demographic subgroups. Using comprehensive administrative data from Japan’s National Health Insurance system (FY 2011–2016), we employ instrumental variable estimation exploiting peer participation rates to address selection bias in voluntary health checkups, and difference-in-differences estimation leveraging systematic assignment rules for behavioral guidance interventions. Health checkup participation generates minimal average effects but substantial heterogeneity: younger participants (40–64 years) reduce hospitalization, while elderly participants (65–74 years) increase outpatient care expenditures. Males experience higher inpatient care costs; females significantly reduce hospitalization. Income-based heterogeneity is absent, suggesting Japan’s universal coverage successfully minimizes financial barriers. Strikingly, light-touch motivational support proves more effective than intensive sixmonth guidance at increasing outpatient care utilization, with effects concentrated among elderly, female, and lower-income populations. These findings reveal fundamental misalignment in current program design: resource-intensive interventions target populations least responsive to behavioral guidance while the most responsive populations receive minimal support. Our results challenge conventional dose-response assumptions and have important implications for optimal prevention program design in aging societies worldwide, suggesting substantial efficiency gains through reallocation toward targeted light-touch interventions. |
| Keywords: | Health checkups, Behavioral guidance, Health care, Heterogeneous effects, Administrative data |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2525 |
| By: | Mr. Sakai Ando; Kaitoh Hidano; Jeongwon Son |
| Abstract: | What are the implications of demographics on total consumption and its sectoral composition in Asia toward 2050? Although the literature has studied total consumption and individual consumption categories separately, the research that studies both is scarce. Using household consumption surveys from seven Asian economies and UN population projections, we find that (1) the compositional effects of demographics on total consumption can be large when middle-aged population changes rapidly, (2) due to aging, some categories, including education and transport, may grow slower than others, like health, and (3) the implications are uncertain due to factors like economic growth, fertility, and migration. |
| Keywords: | Demographics; Consumption; Aging |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/247 |