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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Sven Rehers |
| Abstract: | The demographic shift and the limitations of Germany’s pay-as-you-go pension system underscore the growing importance of private long-term wealth accumulation. Open-ended real estate funds (OEREFs) may serve as a useful instrument in this context, offering access to broadly diversified property portfolios with relatively stable returns.This paper aims to examine the potential role of OEREFs in long-term wealth building for private investors. Based on a mean-variance optimization framework, it will analyze how the inclusion of OEREFs affects the efficiency of mixed-asset portfolios over time. In addition to return and volatility metrics, the study will incorporate shortfall risk measures and conduct stress tests to assess the robustness of different allocation strategies under varying market conditions. Simulations will be based on historical data on returns, volatilities, and asset correlations.By exploring how OEREFs can contribute to a stable and resilient accumulation of capital, the paper seeks to generate actionable insights for the design of long-term investment strategies tailored to the needs of individual investors. |
| Keywords: | Germany's Pension System; Home Equity Release; Pension Gap |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_199 |
| By: | Sylvester Willys Namagwa |
| Abstract: | As life expectancy in Kenya increases, so does the need for efficient pension schemes that can secure a dignified retirement and protect members from old age poverty. Limited research, however, has explored the efficiency of these schemes under existing governance structures. This study addresses that gap by examining the combined effects of corporate governance, risk management, and industry regulation on pension scheme efficiency in Kenya. Using a quantitative design, we conducted a panel regression analysis on a seven-year secondary dataset of 128 Kenyan pension schemes, totaling 896 observations. Our results reveal significant insights That the presence of employee representatives on the board and effective risk management have a significant positive effect on efficiency. Conversely, independent board members exhibit a significant negative effect. Other factors, including top management representation, female board members, and industry regulation, showed no significant effect on efficiency in the joint model. These findings suggest that the impact of governance and risk management on efficiency is nuanced, with specific factors like employee representation playing a more prominent role. We propose that the electoral process for employee board members may introduce a Self Cleaning Mechanism that progressively enhances scheme efficiency. This mechanism offers a novel theoretical extension of Agency Theory, explaining the convergence of interests between elected trustees and scheme members. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.10999 |
| By: | Yu, Jiao (Yale University); Cudjoe, Thomas K.M. (Johns Hopkins University); Mathis, Walter S. (Yale University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This study examined the link between neighborhood disorder trajectories and metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers in U.S. older adults. We analyzed data from community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries in the National Health and Aging Trends Study. Neighborhood physical disorder was assessed annually through interviewer observations over six years. Latent class analysis was used to identify exposure trajectory subgroups. Machine learning based inverse probability weighted (IPW) regression models were conducted to estimate associations with five biomarkers, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Compared to the stable low exposure group, older adults with increased exposure, decreased exposure, and stable high exposure exhibited higher levels of HbA1c. Only stable high exposure was associated with increased hsCRP. No significant associations were found for other biomarkers. Residential environments play an important role in shaping the biological risk of aging. Incorporating routine screening for neighborhood environmental risks and implementing community-level interventions are pivotal in promoting healthy aging in place. |
| Keywords: | inverse probability weighting, machine learning, metabolic and inflammation biomarkers, neighborhood disorder, latent class analysis |
| JEL: | J14 I12 I14 R20 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18251 |
| By: | Strobel, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Alterssicherung in Deutschland ist zu Beginn der laufenden Legislaturperiode wieder stärker in den Fokus der Politik gerückt, da die nachvollziehbaren Erwartungen der vielen Millionen Versicherten der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung an eine auskömmliche Altersversorgung kaum noch mit realistischen Möglichkeiten der Finanzierung in Einklang zu bringen sind. Der vorliegende Beitrag enthält einen Vorschlag zur mittelfristigen Entschärfung dieses Problems. Plädiert wird für ein behutsames Absenken des Versorgungsniveaus in der gesetzlichen Rente ab Beginn der 2030-er Jahre in Verbindung mit einer zusätzlichen kapitalgedeckten obligatorischen Altersvorsorge, die im Kern auf einer deutlich reformierten Riester-Rente beruht mit einer Produktgestaltung, die sich eng an diejenige der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung anlehnt. |
| Abstract: | At the beginning of the current legislative period, old-age provision in Germany has once again become a major political focus, as the understandable expectations of the many millions of people insured under the statutory pension insurance scheme for adequate old-age provision can hardly be reconciled with realistic financing options. This article contains a proposal for alleviating this problem in the medium term. It advocates a cautious reduction in the level of statutory pension benefits from the beginning of the 2030s, combined with an additional funded mandatory pension scheme based essentially on a significantly reformed Riester pension with a product design closely modelled on that of the statutory pension insurance scheme. |
| Keywords: | Altersversorgung, Rentenversicherung |
| JEL: | H H5 H55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:thkivw:331862 |
| By: | Bähr, Tobias; Wollni, Meike |
| Abstract: | Smallholders play an important role as producers of cash-crops in developing countries and are often responsible for land clearing and agricultural expansion into pristine environments where productivity is low. Closing yield-gaps of smallholders to industrial plantations as well as diversifying production systems has been identified as a mean to prevent further environmental degradation. At the same time, developing and emerging economies are beginning to struggle with an ageing farmer population, potentially hindering advances in land productivity. In Indonesia, increased income from oil palm cultivation has led to rapid educational attainments within one generation. While this opens job opportunities for children of oil palm smallholders, it inhibits farm succession and thus contributes to ageing among smallholders. Using primary data from a random sample of 417 oil palm smallholders in Indonesia, we investigate trends of farm succession and test, how these moderate possible effects of ageing on plantation investments and outcomes. Our results suggest, that older farmers are associated with lower productivity levels generally and are less likely to replant mature plots. These trends are moderated by succession plans of households. Succession generally moderates negative effects on productivity – indifferent of the successor’s involvement. Households with a successor are generally more likely to replant. We argue that these results hint towards strategic decision- making in ageing smallholders and that observed trends of lower productivity and technology adoption in ageing farmer populations are likely a mix of both decreasing ability and strategic decisions by the farmer. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344686 |
| By: | Sylvester Willys Namagwa |
| Abstract: | The efficiency of pension schemes in Kenya invites elevated interest owing to the increasing pension contribution amounts and the expectation that benefits paid out of these schemes would protect members from old age poverty. The study investigates the intervening effect of risk management on the relationship between corporate governance and the efficiency of pension schemes in Kenya. The study employs panel data consisting of 896 observations from 128 schemes in a sample period from 2015 to 2021. The study finds that risk management significantly mediates the relationship between employee representatives on the board of trustees, as a component of corporate governance, and the efficiency of pension schemes. Consequently, the mediation effect of risk management indicates that when employee representatives are involved in governance, the presence of strong risk management practices ensures that their contributions lead to improved efficiency. Risk management, therefore, serves as a critical safeguard that enables governance structures to function more effectively and contribute to the overall performance of the scheme. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.11416 |
| By: | Luiu, Carlo |
| Abstract: | As populations in both developed and developing countries continue to age, ensuring access to transportation that meets the mobility needs of older adults is becoming increasingly important. This issue is particularly pressing for individuals who are unable to drive or access private vehicles. Flexible Transport Services (FTS) offer a promising alternative to private transport for older people, thanks to features such as door-to-door accessibility and operational flexibility. This paper investigates travel satisfaction, perceived barriers, and attitudes toward FTS among older adults residing in the urban context of Birmingham, United Kingdom. A mixed-methods approach is employed, beginning with an analysis of travel frequency and purpose associated with FTS use, followed by a thematic analysis aimed at capturing older people's experiences, perceptions, and overall attitudes toward this mode of transport. The analysis reveals six key themes: lack of need, service provision issues, stigma, lack of awareness, convenience, and social implications. These themes highlight both the benefits of FTS and the factors that hinder its use. A central finding is the marked difference in perception between frequent users and non-users. FTS is often viewed negatively by non-users, with three of the four identified barriers predominantly arising from this group. In contrast, frequent users express satisfaction with the service, particularly emphasising its role in meeting discretionary travel needs. This is especially true for individuals over the age of 80 and those with limited access to a car. |
| Date: | 2025–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:75hx4_v1 |
| By: | Gross, Alden L; Duhon, Madeline; Ochieng, Eric; Ikanga, Jean N; Dow, William H; Lee, Jinkook; Walker, Michael W; Layvant, Michelle; Ngugi, Anthony; Ehrlich, Joshua R; Miguel, Edward A |
| Abstract: | Objectives Cohort studies of ageing and cognitive decline typically do not begin fielding comprehensive cognitive assessments until older adulthood. However, for identifying preventable dementia risk factors, there is strong value in beginning at earlier ages. The case is especially compelling in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of older individuals is expected to triple in the next three decades, and where risk factors may operate more intensively at earlier ages. This study reports on the adaptation and validity of the Harmonised Cognitive Assessment Protocol (HCAP) approach in the Kenya Life Panel Survey (KLPS), collected among middle-aged respondents. Design To evaluate the validity of the HCAP approach in Kenya, this study assesses model fit statistics from confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) and tests measurement invariance by respondent characteristics. Setting Both rural and urban areas in Kenya. Participants A sample of n=5878 individuals from the KLPS, who have been surveyed regularly since they were schoolchildren in the 1990s. The HCAP assessment was administered in 2023 at an average age of 37 years (10-90 range 34 to 41). Primary and secondary outcome measures For each individual, the CFA generates a general cognitive performance score, and cognitive performance scores for five distinct domains, including memory, executive functioning, language, orientation to time and place, and visuospatial functioning. Results Fit of the models to the data was adequate for general cognitive performance (root mean squared error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.03; comparative fit index (CFI)=0.94; standardised root mean residual (SRMR)=0.05), language (RMSEA=0.02; CFI=0.95; SRMR=0.05) and good for memory (RMSEA=0.05; CFI=0.99; SRMR=0.02) and executive functioning (RMSEA=0.03; CFI=0.98; SRMR=0.03). The CFA indicate that the factor structure is consistent with findings from other countries and that reliability for the general cognitive performance score was high. Statistical models also suggest invariance at the scalar level for leading demographic (gender, age) and socioeconomic (education, occupational complexity) characteristics. Conclusions This study demonstrates that the cognitive functioning of mid-age Kenyans appears to be well captured by the adapted protocol. While there is a moderate decline in cognitive performance among older individuals, this relationship appears to be mediated by education, indicating that this KLPS HCAP provides a valuable baseline for studying future cognitive decline. |
| Keywords: | Health Services and Systems, Health Sciences, Acquired Cognitive Impairment, Aging, Brain Disorders, Neurodegenerative, Prevention, Behavioral and Social Science, Clinical Research, Neurosciences, Alzheimer's Disease including Alzheimer's Disease Related Dementias (AD/ADRD), Dementia, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Alzheimer's Disease, Adult, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Cognitive Aging, Cohort Studies, Kenya, Mental Status and Dementia Tests, Cognition, Reference Standards, Employment, Surveys and Questionnaires, Clinical Sciences, Public Health and Health Services, Other Medical and Health Sciences, Biomedical and clinical sciences, Health sciences, Psychology |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt1rg1t12n |
| By: | Tetsuya Kaji; Elena Manresa |
| Abstract: | We revisit the saving behavior of elderly singles using an adversarial structural estimation framework by Kaji, Manresa and Pouliot (2023). The method bridges the simulated method of moments (SMM) and maximum-likelihood estimation by embedding a flexible discriminator, implemented as a neural network, that adaptively selects the most informative features of the data. Applying this approach to the model of De Nardi, French, and Jones (2010) with AHEAD data, we show that including gender and health histories in the discriminator improves identification and precision of bequests motives. The resulting estimates reveal that bequest motives explain between $13\%$ and $19\%$ percent of late-life savings across all permanent-income quintiles, not only among the rich. The adversarial estimator precisely disentangles bequest motives from precautionary savings motives. These findings suggest that heterogeneity in health-related survival expectations is another important source of identifying variation to distinguishing bequest and precautionary saving motives. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13275 |
| By: | Arentz, Christine; Winter, Henri; Simon, Jan-Henrik |
| Abstract: | Hintergrund: Seit Einführung des neuen Pflegebedürftigkeitsbegriffs 2017 ist die Anzahl der Leistungsempfänger in der gesetzlichen Pflegeversicherung deutlich über das demografisch zu erwartende Ausmaß angestiegen. In der Folge sind die Beitragssätze in der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung und die Prämien in der Privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung wiederholt gestiegen. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Charakteristika der Erstantragsteller in der privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung mit einem Fokus auf Pflegegrad 1, um Präventionspotentiale für die Versicherten und Reformelemente für die gesetzliche Pflegeversicherung zu identifizieren. Methodik: Die Datenerhebung erfolgte durch die Medicproof GmbH im Rahmen der Pflegebegutachtung der Privatversicherten in Deutschland, die von 2017-2023 einen Erstantrag auf Leistungen der Privaten Pflegepflichtversicherung stellten. Die Daten wurden in aggregierter Form zur Verfügung gestellt und mit deskriptiven Methoden ausgewertet. Ergebnisse: Über 70% der Erstanträge enden in einer Einstufung in Pflegegrad 1 oder 2. Versicherte in höheren Pflegegraden sind eher männlich und tendenziell jünger. Sie erhalten ein hohes Maß an professioneller Pflege, wohingegen Versicherte in Pflegegrad 1 zu 83% ausschließlich von privaten Pflegepersonen gepflegt werden. Versicherte in Pflegegrad 1 haben vor allem leichte Einschränkungen im Bereich der Mobilität. Daraus ergeben sich Einschränkungen im Bereich der Selbstversorgung und im Umgang mit Krankheits- und therapiebedingten Anforderungen. 30% der Pflegebedürftigen in Pflegegrad 1 werden bereits innerhalb eines Jahres hochgestuft, dabei verschlechtern sich vor allem die Mobilität sowie kognitive und kommunikative Fähigkeiten. Schlussfolgerung: Von dem erleichterten Zugang zu Leistungen der Pflegeversicherung profitieren in Pflegegrad 1 vor allem Pflegebedürftige mit leichten Einschränkungen, die vor allem Unterstützung bei der Selbstversorgung und dem Umgang mit Krankheits- und therapiebedingten Anforderungen benötigen. Diese Gruppe benötigt häufig noch keine inhärente pflegerische Unterstützung. Allerdings werden viele innerhalb eines Jahres aufgrund von Verschlechterungen in präventionssensitiven Bereichen in einen höheren Pflegegrad eingestuft. Die zunehmende finanzielle Beanspruchung der Pflegeversicherung unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit, Ressourcen bedarfsgerechter einzusetzen und Prävention als zentralen Bestandteil der Leistungserbringung zu stärken. |
| Abstract: | Background: In Germany, individuals in need of long-term care are entitled to benefits from the long-term care insurance system. In recent years, the number of beneficiaries has risen far beyond the level that could be expected from demographic trends. This development already places a considerable financial burden on the system and is projected to intensify further in the future. This study analyzes the characteristics of first-time applicants in the private long-term care insurance scheme, with a particular focus on Care Degree 1, in order to identify both preventive potential for insured individuals and possible reform elements for the insurance system.Methods: Data were collected by Medicproof GmbH in the context of care assessments for privately insured individuals in Germany who submitted a first-time application for long-term care insurance benefits between 2017 and 2023. The data was provided in aggregated form and analyzed using descriptive methods.Results: More than 70% of first-time applications result in classification into Care Levels 1 or 2. Individuals classified into higher care levels are more likely to be male and, on average, somewhat younger. They typically receive a substantial amount of professional care, whereas 83% of those in Care Level 1 are cared for exclusively by informal caregivers. Care Level 1 beneficiaries exhibit primarily minor mobility impairments, which in turn lead to limitations in self-care (Module 6) and in managing disease- and therapy-related demands (Module 5). Approximately 30% of individuals in Care Level 1 are reassigned to a higher care level within one year. The most pronounced increases in assessment scores occur in Module 1 (Mobility) and Module 2 (Cognitive and Communicative Abilities).Conclusion: The facilitated access to long-term care benefits primarily supports individuals in Care Level 1 with mild impairments who mainly require assistance with self-care and managing disease- and therapy-related demands. This group frequently does not yet require inherent nursing support. However, about 30% of them are reassigned to a higher care level within one year due to deterioration in prevention-sensitive domains. Given the substantial financial strain on the long-term care insurance system, it is advisable to allocate resources more strategically and to orient Care Level 1 more strongly toward preventive measures. |
| Keywords: | Pflegeversicherung, Pflegebedürftigkeit |
| JEL: | H H5 H55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:thkivw:331863 |
| By: | Poggi Ambra (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Torino, Italy); Simeone Enza (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this work, we investigate whether area-level social connectedness help in reducing depression across European old adults. Our results show that people aged 75+ benefit in terms of reduced depression from living in areas that facilitate social connectedness. Heterogeneity in the level of benefits emerges depending on personality type. |
| Keywords: | Social Connectedness, Elderly, Mixed-effects Model, Personality Traits, Depression Scale |
| JEL: | I14 C23 J14 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:101 |
| By: | Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub |
| Abstract: | We introduce an asset supply-and-demand approach to analyze the trajectory of US aggregate wealth, real interest rates, and fiscal sustainability. Our framework uses micro-founded and easy-to-implement sufficient statistics to quantify how shifts in demographics, inequality, and other forces affect asset market equilibrium. From 1950 to the present, rapid population aging, rising income inequality, increasing foreign demand for US assets, and declining productivity growth all contributed to a surge in asset demand. Asset supply initially fell, then turned around sharply, mainly driven by increases in government debt and the value of capitalized profits. Overall, asset demand won the race, and interest rates fell. Looking ahead to 2100, population aging will continue to strongly push up asset demand, but at current tax and benefit levels, asset supply will win the race, as rising entitlement costs push up government debt even more. While rising asset demand creates space for debt to eventually reach 250% of GDP without higher interest rates, stabilizing debt at any level requires a permanent fiscal adjustment of at least 10% of GDP. |
| JEL: | E20 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34470 |
| By: | Chenarani, Hasan; Roudari, Soheil |
| Abstract: | In recent years, due to the resource deficits and financial imbalances of pension funds, the issue of structural reform and optimization of their investment portfolios has gained greater importance. Among the key solutions proposed is the divestment of underperforming enterprises to the private sector in line with Article 44 of the Constitution and within the framework of implementing the Seventh National Development Plan. The main challenge in this context lies in establishing a scientifically sound and efficient prioritization for such divestments. Accordingly, adopting modern portfolio management approaches—such as the DCC GARCH R² decomposed connectedness model recently introduced by Cocca et al. (2024)—can offer a more comprehensive perspective for decision making regarding whether to retain or divest these enterprises. Based on this approach, the optimal weight of each enterprise in the investment portfolio, the efficiency of risk hedging, the beta coefficient, and the Sharpe ratio should be evaluated under various portfolio management frameworks, including MVP, MCP, MCOP, MRP, and MPG. Ultimately, the model yielding the highest Sharpe ratio is selected as the optimal approach. In such a setting, it becomes feasible to prioritize enterprises for earlier or later divestment based on two key dimensions—return and risk. This priority setting aligns with the mandates of the Seventh National Development Plan; however, to date, this has not been examined using the aforementioned approaches, which could be of significant value to policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Pension Fund, Investment Management, DCC GARCH R² Decomposed Connectedness Approach |
| JEL: | G11 G14 G17 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126973 |
| By: | Shane Domican; Sijin Zhang (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing, income growth, and individuals shifting income into companies and trusts has materially changed New Zealand’s tax bases and revenue. We provide indicative analysis of these trends and four main insights: (1) An ageing population may result in an increase in GST revenues as older households spend their saved earnings. This could shift our tax base towards indirect taxes, however the size of this is relatively small. In addition, this result critically relies on assuming no behaviour change from households due to ageing. (2) On the other hand, there have been material behavioural changes. We show that there has been a rise in the ‘labour’ share of our personal tax base that is likely due to rising labour force participation, particularly by older individuals. We also show how, absent this rise in labour income from rising participation, an ageing population would have increased the ‘capital’ share of our personal tax base. (3) Fiscal drag has been significant as income growth moved more income into higher personal tax brackets. From 2011 to 2023, fiscal drag led to personal tax revenues rising by 1.6% of GDP. The distributional impact of fiscal drag is uneven and the full impact on New Zealanders depends on how the revenue is used. However, in the future, if fiscal drag continues, it’s likely to increasingly impact lower income individuals. (4) Taxpayers appear to have responded to gaps between the top personal tax rate and the entity tax rate by shifting more of their income into companies and trusts. This had a material and growing fiscal impact. The risk of sheltering in trusts has largely been removed with the alignment between top personal tax rate and trustee rate in 2024. However, there appears to have been growing sheltering in companies, indicating a potential shift in risk. We also show how this sheltering may explain some of the apparent rise in labour income for individuals as capital income is sheltered in these entities. Whether these trends continue in the future is uncertain. Our analysis shows that behavioural responses by taxpayers as well as future policy choices are key drivers of our tax bases and revenue. We hope the note highlights areas to have continued attention and vigilance. |
| JEL: | H20 D31 D33 |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/07 |
| By: | Tim Hughes; Sarah Crichton (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the fiscal implications of transnationalism among New Zealand-born citizens. For every calendar year between 1999 and 2024, the IDI allows us to identify how many days NZ-born citizens spend in New Zealand or elsewhere. As the lifecourse progresses, many New Zealanders choose to live elsewhere. Often this is temporary, with about 40% of NZ-born emigrants returning to live in New Zealand again, usually within a few years. But many others leave permanently. By the age of 30, 25-30% of each birth cohort is living elsewhere. Emigration of the New Zealand born represents only about a third of total emigration – the rest is emigration of the foreign-born, including foreign-born citizens of New Zealand. Emigration of the foreign-born will be considered in a future paper. Emigration of the NZ-born is most common in young adulthood - about half of those emigrating each year are in their twenties or thirties. But emigration in one’s twenties is also the most likely to be temporary. Emigration in childhood and later adulthood is more likely to be permanent. Emigration and return migration are also strongly associated with both ethnicity and qualification level, but not with gender. In general, the most highly qualified are most likely to emigrate, but also the most likely to return. This difference in emigration between people with lower and higher qualifications exists within all ethnic groups, but the difference is greatest for NZ Europeans, and smallest for Pacific peoples. Over time, emigration of successive birth cohorts has led to a substantial diaspora. We estimate that the NZ-born diaspora has grown over time to about 915, 000 people, about two-thirds of whom are living in Australia. The diaspora is older than the New Zealand population, and growing older over time. NZ-born Asian and Pacific people have higher rates of diasporic membership than Māori and NZ Europeans. From a fiscal perspective, the diaspora represents both a contingent asset and a contingent liability. Return migration from the diaspora of those with overseas experience is an important source of fiscal revenue. For example in 2023, among 40-44 year-old NZ-born residents, those who had taken at least a short OE made up 35% of the residents, but paid 42% of the personal tax among this group. These figures illustrate how future Government revenues are dependent at least in part on ensuring New Zealanders who choose to pursue an OE find returning home an attractive proposition. diaspora also represents a contingent liability, to the extent that New Zealanders with rights of return also have rights to public services such as health and aged care should they choose to return. Return is uncommon later in life, suggesting that retirement back to New Zealand is rare among those who have settled elsewhere. However, rates of return increased during COVID among older and especially younger New Zealanders. This suggests that the fiscal risks of certain adverse events, especially global events, may be exacerbated if those events result in higher rates of return from the diaspora. |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/10 |