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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Henkens, Kène (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:dda26a55-c0b6-4c1f-b37c-053c7fa9687c |
| By: | Patrick Hendy (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | China's ageing population is expected to slow the country's economic growth in coming years. Population ageing can have a negative effect on a country's growth due to the decline in the working-age population relative to the dependent population, and could cause decreased labour productivity growth, as has been the case in other countries which have experienced similar demographic shifts. This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of ageing on GDP per capita growth in China using data among China's provinces. I find that over 10 years a 10 per cent increase in the proportion of the population aged over 60 decreases nominal GDP per capita by around 7 per cent, all other things equal. These estimates imply that an ageing population has placed downward pressure on China's economic growth in the 2010s and 2020s so far, with this pressure likely to continue in the coming years. Authorities have so far responded to this challenge by increasing retirement ages and introducing policies such as a nationwide childcare subsidy. Different sectors in the economy are not likely to be affected uniformly by population ageing. I find that an increase in the old-age ratio increases the contribution of services (excluding real estate) to output, and decreases the contribution of construction. |
| Keywords: | China; demographics; economic growth |
| JEL: | J11 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-08 |
| By: | Youngsoo Jang (Yonsei University); Svetlana Pashchenko (University of Georgia); Ponpoje Porapakkarm (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Should public policies address inequality due to heterogeneous life expectancy? Intuitively, taking short life as a disadvantage, such policies should favor those with high mortality. Yet, pension systems implicitly redistribute from low-life-expectancy to high-life-expectancy people. Moreover, this direction of redistribution is optimal from the perspective of the standard utilitarian welfare criterion. We study mortality-related redistribution in a more flexible setting. We start by establishing a formal framework for the analysis by clearly distinguishing between the redistribution along mortality and income dimensions, and thus between mortality and income progressivity. We then show that it is optimal to redistribute towards high-mortality people in two cases. First, when welfare criterion features aversion to lifetime inequality which exceeds aversion to consumption inequality. Second, when income and mortality are negatively correlated, and income redistribution tools are limited. |
| Keywords: | Mortality-related redistribution, Welfare criteria, Pensions, Prioritarianism |
| JEL: | D30 D60 D63 H55 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-268 |
| By: | Tizian Dick (University of Regensburg, Institute of Economics and Econometrics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on Germany?s third?pillar pensions by separating market entry from within-pillar product choice and by introducing an aggregated subsidized margin that summarizes selection into Riester/Basis relative to purely unsubsidized Private plans. Using recent, nationally representative microdata (2019?2023), we estimate a two-stage framework: a binary participation model and, conditional on entry, a multinomial product-choice mode. Two contributions are distinctive. First, we provide the first unified evidence on Basis and unsubsidized Private contracts alongside Riester, moving beyond a Riester-centric literature. Second, our subsidized margin offers a policy-relevant measure of how fiscal incentives reallocate choices within the pillar, invariant to base-category normalization. At the extensive margin, participation is governed primarily by labor-market attachment and position in the income distribution. Households with stable earnings and strong links to formal employment are much more likely to enter, while low and irregular earners remain underrepresented. Participation exhibits a reverse gender gap: women outpace men in third-pillar take-up. At the intensive margin, choices track institutional design. Higher incomes tilt selections away from allowance-based contracts and toward tax-deductible alternatives, with the self-employed showing a marked preference for the latter. On the subsidized margin, income effects largely offset in the aggregate, yet the nature of earnings remains decisive. These findings point to policy that targets entry frictions and preserves product neutrality because participation and not within-pillar reallocation is the margin on which the system binds. |
| Keywords: | Third-Pillar Pension, Riester Pension, Basis Pension, Rürup Pension, Private Pension, Retirement Saving, Subsidies and Tax Incentives, Household Finance, Extensive and Intensive Margins |
| JEL: | D14 G22 H55 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15416970 |
| By: | ?ukasz Karol Bugowski (University in Bialystok, Faculty of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, the socio-economic development of European countries is increasingly determined not only by social or economic factors, but additionally the impact of megatrends must be taken into account, among which demographic change is one of the least contested. The intensity and wide-ranging impact of demographic change in Central Europe makes demography not only a subject of consideration for academics, but also one of the main challenges for economic practitioners, especially entrepreneurs and strategists creating economic policy.As a result, the aim of this paper is to analyse the main demographic trends in the countries located in Central Europe. Particular attention is paid to demographic processes with the greatest impact on the economy, such as changes in the age structure of the population. The increase in the proportion of people in the post-working age group at the expense of the decline in the working age population has implications not only at the macroeconomic level, but also affects the activities of individual enterprises through the ageing of the workforce and the diversity of its age structure. The response to the decline in the labour force is increasing levels of immigration, which is another important demographic trend. On the one hand, immigration poses a political challenge because of the emerging social unrest associated with it. On the other hand, in view of the demographic trend of low fertility rates, it appears that European countries are forced to accept immigrants, although the scale of this phenomenon is a product of social consensus and political decisions. As a result, it is hypothesised that the main demographic challenges in Central Europe today include an ageing population, a low fertility rate and increasing immigration pressure.The identification and analysis of contemporary demographic trends is carried out on the basis of the literature in question as well as source data from Eurostat and statistical offices of Central Europe countries. The delimitation of Central Europe in the literature is not clear. For the purposes of the analysis, Central Europe is assumed to include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. |
| Keywords: | demography, demographic trends, Central Europe |
| JEL: | J11 J15 R10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15516702 |
| By: | Carrera, Leandro; Angelaki, Marina |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-2000s, Latin American countries have been re-reforming their pension systems to address the issue of low coverage and low future pensions. Chile and Uruguay, pioneers of social protection in the region, show diverging policy change outcomes. While Uruguay has implemented a series of reforms aiming at strengthening the private and the public pillars, Chile, notwithstanding a significant reform in 2008, has been debating significant change entailing possible more involvement of the state in pension provision and has recently adopted a reform that will challenge the dominance of the private pillar. We argue that the political institutional setting and the legacy of the pension system (both in terms of its design and performance) are key to understanding this diverging path. We contend that our analysis provides a useful framework to understand pension policy (re-)reforms in other countries in the region and thus contributes to the pension and policy continuity and change literature. |
| Keywords: | Chile; institutions; Latin America; pensions; policies; Uruguay |
| JEL: | H55 H53 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129926 |
| By: | Lan Song; Ping Lyu |
| Abstract: | Housing conditions have a significant impact on human health. For a long time, the dual urban-rural system of China has led to significant differences in housing between urban and rural areas, and the cumulative impact of housing environment can result in inequality of opportunity in health among the elderly. Based on Roemer's equal opportunity theory and using data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), it was found that the average gap in health opportunities between rural and urban elderly populations is 2.359, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the average health level of rural elderly. The degree of inequality of opportunity in health between urban and rural elderly groups is divided by the Hu line, with higher levels of inequality in the western and northern region. Using the Shapley value method, the specific impact of housing on inequality of opportunity in health was quantified from four dimensions: housing asset value, housing property stability, housing comfort, and housing facility convenience. Their overall contribution was as high as 87%. Based on the above research results, we propose improvement paths from the housing sector: coordinating the promotion of urban and rural environmental transformation for elderly, exploring the new security model “housing(or land)-based eldercare” for rural elderly, and establishing the integration of urban and rural housing security system. |
| Keywords: | Healthy Aging; housing; Opportunity in Health; Urban and Rural |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_54 |
| By: | Jannik Schumann (University of Finance and Administration (V?FS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how rising inflation affected household saving behavior in Germany between 2015 and 2022. Using longitudinal microdata from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a two-way fixed-effects design, we estimate the impact of monthly year-over-year inflation on different types of saving rates?retirement-specific, wealth-building, and overall savings?while controlling for household heterogeneity and common macro shocks. The results indicate that moderate inflation fluctuations before 2020 had negligible effects on savings. During the 2021?22 inflation surge, however, saving rates declined as households used savings to buffer higher living costs. Heterogeneity is notable: younger households slightly increased retirement contributions when inflation rose, whereas older households showed no adjustment. No significant effect was found for wealth-building savings. Regional analysis reveals that the modest positive response among young households was driven by West Germans, while East German households?facing lower incomes?experienced a sharper decline in overall saving. These findings highlight that inflation primarily erodes saving capacity rather than triggering major portfolio shifts. Policy implications include strengthening financial literacy, ensuring adequate pension indexation, and targeting relief to vulnerable groups, particularly in East Germany, to prevent long-term financial insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Young adults; Household finance; Saving behavior; Retirement saving; Wealth accumulation; Panel data; Germany; SOEP |
| JEL: | E31 D14 E21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15116506 |
| By: | Carmen Sainz Villalba |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the information provision and belief updating on the preference for regulation on pensions for own respondents and the preference for regulation on pensions for the population as a whole. Following the work of Sainz Villalba and Konrad (2024), we conduct a survey experiment where we provide information on own characteristics and on characteristics about individuals in other income brackets. We find that respondents who overestimate the pension coverage for low income earners are more likely to want less regulation for themselves and for the population as a whole. However, the overall effect of the information provision is very low. Like previous papers, we find that the respondents who are more knowledgeable about pensions want less regulation for themselves, but want more regulation for the population as a whole, on average, when given information about their own characteristics and others’ characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, Knowledge, Beliefs, Government Regulation, Decision-making |
| JEL: | D78 D03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2024-13 |
| By: | Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; Kenny, Geoff; Pistaferri, Luigi |
| Abstract: | Using a large survey of euro area consumers, we conduct an experiment in which respondents report how they would adjust their labor market participation, hours worked, and job search effort (if not employed) in response to randomly assigned windfall gain scenarios. Windfall gains reduce labor supply, but only when the gains are substantial. At the extensive margin, gains of €25, 000 or less have no effects, while gains between €50, 000 and €100, 000 reduce the probability of working by 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. At the intensive margin, small gains produce no impact, while gains above €50, 000 lead to a reduction of approximately one hour of work per week. The effects among women and workers near retirement are stronger. The share of non-employed respondents who stop or reduce job search intensity declines by 1 percentage point for each €10, 000 in windfall gain, with the strongest effects observed among older individuals receiving €100, 000. JEL Classification: E24, D10, J22, J68 |
| Keywords: | consumer expectations survey, job search, labor supply, survey experiment, wealth shocks |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253154 |
| By: | Coccia, Mario |
| Abstract: | This study examines mortality dynamics across major macroeconomic regions—Western countries, non-Western regions, and China—from 1960 to 2023, exploring variability and underlying drivers. Descriptive analysis shows that non-Western regions experienced the highest death rates in 1960–1990, followed by a marked decline as GDP per capita increased. China exhibited a similar pattern. Conversely, Western countries achieved only modest mortality reductions after 1991 despite sustained economic growth, even when controlling for population aging (≥65 years). Regression models and partial correlations indicate that economic progress initially correlates with mortality decline in all regions. However, in Western countries, this relationship reverses after 1991, forming an inverted-U curve when mortality is modeled against GDP per capita and elderly share. This suggests diminishing health returns and potential adverse effects of advanced development—such as environmental degradation, lifestyle-related diseases, and occupational risks. Non-Western regions, with slower economic acceleration, show no comparable reversal. Findings imply that beyond a development threshold, further growth may paradoxically elevate mortality. Policy strategies should prioritize balanced, sustainable development and integrated “One Health” approaches to mitigate health risks associated with over-rapid economic expansion. |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:39pgf_v1 |
| By: | Youngsoo Jang (Yonsei University); Svetlana Pashchenko (University of Georgia); Ponpoje Porapakkarm (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | What is the best way to reform Social Security? Academic literature offers diverging advice. There is a well-known result that the optimal size of Social Security is zero, implying it is best to phase the program out. Other studies argue that much can be gained by redesigning the program, given its current size. We provide a unified analysis that examines how the optimal size of Social Security depends on the key features of its design. We first develop a theoretical decomposition tracing the program's welfare effects to (i) income redistribution, (ii) distortions on the annuitization level, and (iii) intertemporal distortions. We then quantitatively assess the role of these channels. We show that the zero-optimal-size result arises because Social Security is too distortive and not redistributive enough. Once these design flaws are corrected, it is even optimal to increase the size of the program. |
| Keywords: | Social Security, Pensions, Annuities, Consumption and Saving, Life-Cycle Models |
| JEL: | D15 E60 H55 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-271 |
| By: | Maria L. Miranda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Enrique Acosta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Mortality crises, such as pandemics, conflicts, and environmental disasters, have profound short- and long-term implications for population health. Although the period life expectancy at birth is commonly used to quantify the magnitude of these events, its reliance on the synthetic cohort assumption can be misleading when interpreted as an impact on lifespan. This study argues that, in addition to period-based estimates, cohort life expectancy estimates should be obtained for adequate and meaningful interpretations of the lifespan impact of mortality crises. Using data from the United Nations' 2024 World Population Prospects, we illustrate this with an application to the most recent and widespread crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze changes in period and cohort life expectancy in six countries: New Zealand, Japan, Italy, the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. We analyze two different cohort-based scenarios: the first assumes that the pandemic's impact is fully absorbed by 2024, while the second allows the pandemic to alter future mortality trends. Despite reductions in period life expectancy of up to 70 months in Mexico, cohort life expectancy estimates reveal considerably smaller reductions of up to 3.7 months with an absorbed impact in 2024 and 4 months with a lasting impact. By incorporating the whole mortality experience of cohorts exposed to a certain crisis, cohort life expectancy provides a more accurate interpretation of lifespan effects, offering the wider public, policymakers, and researchers a clearer understanding of demographic consequences and their implications for public health and pension systems. |
| Keywords: | Global |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-033 |
| By: | Arnaud Simon; Guillaume Toussaint; Mathieu Obertelli; Raphael Languillon |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the dynamics of real estate prices in French départements over 25 years. It is based on considerations relating to the life cycle (and in particular the intensity of local ageing), planning policies (spatial concentration of the population, active population, metropolization, peripheralization) and monetary policies (creation of liquidity and the ability of real estate assets to capture excess liquidity). Using panel-data analysis, it studies both real and gross property prices, and prices normalized by M2 monetary aggregates, as a function of: total population change (natural rate, migratory rate), degree of ageing, interest rates, median income, divorce rate and new construction intensity. It then aims to characterize the departments most likely to see their share of total French housing capital outperform or underperform the average trend. The analysis is also split into 3 sub-periods: [2000; 2007], [2008;2015], [2015;2024]; the year 2007 indicating the start of the ageing boom in France, the year 2015 indicating the start of the structural increase in the number of deaths (with retirees owning on average 75% of their homes, compared with 58% for the national average). A projection based on demographic trends is also presented, along with a few comments on the effects of building restrictions (coastal law, mountain law, regional nature park law) in order to understand the effect that zero-artificialization laws could have on housing prices. |
| Keywords: | housing capital; Housing Prices; local demographics; Monetary policies |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_103 |
| By: | Todd Gardner |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between long-term population change and health outcomes in U.S. micropolitan areas, with a focus on life expectancy and mortality disparities. Using a county typology based on the historical population trajectories of micropolitan cores from 1940 to 2020, this analysis reveals that health outcomes are substantially worse in places that experienced sustained decline. These disparities persist even after controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, suggesting that population loss itself is a key driver of poor public health. Declining micropolitan areas are older, less educated, and report high rates of behavioral risk factors, including smoking, excessive drinking, and physical inactivity. By linking historical demographic trends to tract-level data, this analysis highlights the distinct challenges facing the urban cores of shrinking micropolitan areas. Population decline emerges not only as a demographic trend, but as a marker of structural disadvantage with measurable consequences for community health. |
| Keywords: | Micropolitan, life expectancy, health disparities, population decline, public health geography |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-70 |
| By: | Guillaume Toussaint; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | In an ageing region such as Europe, the question of the link between housing prices and demographics is an important issue. According to Eurostat, the fertility rate in 2024 was 1.53 children per woman, below the threshold for population growth of 2.1 children per woman. France, the European Union country with the highest number of children per woman in 2024 (INSEE, 2024), remains below the 2.1 threshold (the rate is 1.84). So, as in all ageing countries, the question of access to property arises. Indeed, as shown by Yang (2009), housing is perceived as a secured asset, which means that housing capital does not necessarily decrease with age, unlike consumption. This raises the question of access to housing for the younger generations, what Yates (2011) called “housing structural sustainability”, or “the needs of the present generation [that] can be met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.This article aim to analyze the housing structural sustainability in France through a quantitative analysis of the variation of the housing stock in France between 2012 and 2022. From an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions, we train a machine learning model to estimate a price for the entire housing stock based on a tax file dataset. Thanks to this new dataset, we take a comprehensive look at housing ownership between 2012 and 2022 and question the role of ageing in the concentration of wealth, which answers the following question: to what extent does ageing affect housing structural sustainability?This work is an original contribution in that it attempts to measure the concept of housing structural sustainability introduced by Yates through an exhaustive database of the housing stock in France and a spatial econometrics analysis. |
| Keywords: | Ageing; housing; Mass Appraisal; Structural sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_26 |