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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | David Boisclair; Xavier Dufour-Simard; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we paint a portrait of the evolution of retirement incomes over the last 20 years, and highlight some of the burning policy questions we think are important and deserve in our view more research. We also discuss the potential outlook for retirement incomes in decades to come under the current retirement income system. Our analysis leads us to conclude that seniors have done well in the last decades and that the retirement income system has met both its income replacement and poverty alleviation objectives quite well, but that the changing landscape will soon expose cracks which policymakers should address now rather than later. |
| Keywords: | income replacement rates, poverty, pensions, savings, retirement |
| JEL: | J14 J26 H55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:19 |
| By: | Henkens, K. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Riekhoff, Aart-Jan |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:6ee900bf-79fd-4dab-a799-1b20458a167f |
| By: | Badalyan, Sona (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | "This paper exploits a unique norm-shifting setting - a German pension reform that equalized retirement ages across genders - to examine how old-age employment propagates through workplace networks. The reform raised women’s earliest claiming age from 60 to 63 for cohorts born in 1952 onward. Using the universe of workgroups from social security records, I compare women whose peers were just above or below the reform cutoff. I find that women are more likely to remain employed at older ages when their peers do, with stronger effects in the regions of former West Germany, with its traditional gender norms. Gender-neutral pension reforms thus amplify their impact through peer influence, fostering regional convergence in late-career employment patterns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | D85 H55 J14 J16 J22 J26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202513 |
| By: | Badalyan, Sona (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | "This paper studies how labor demand factors - specifically worker substitutability and job-specific skills - shape employment responses to a rise in the early retirement age. Using a regression discontinuity design, I exploit a 1999 German reform that eliminated the option for women to retire at age 60. Before the reform, older workers could exit voluntarily, thereby imposing turnover costs on firms. Afterward, firms were better able to retain less substitutable workers for whom turnover costs are higher. At the same time, the loss of early pension eligibility reduced workers’ outside options, allowing firms to offer lower wages, often through partial retirement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | H32 H55 J21 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202514 |
| By: | Benoit Dostie; Todd Morris |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages an original linkage between data from the Pension Plans in Canada (PPIC)—a census of all employer pension plans in Canada—and tax data on employers and employees from the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamic Database (CEEDD) to examine three interrelated questions. First, how have pension plans and coverage evolved between 2001 and 2020? Second, how much do workers value jobs with pension plans? Third, how do these pensions impact employee mobility? Additionally, we analyze how these effects vary depending on the characteristics of the pension plan, such as defined benefit versus defined contribution plans, profit-sharing arrangements, and other structural differences. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, Earnings differentials, Mobility, Linked employer-employee data |
| JEL: | J26 J32 J38 J63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:18 |
| By: | Israel Vargas Casimiro (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of Mexico’s pension for older adults (PAM)—formerly known as Programa 65 y Más—on inequality and poverty using microdata from the national survey of household income and expenditure (ENIGH) for the period 2016–2022. The analysis employs inequality measures: a Tobit model and a Heckman two-step selection model to assess the redistributive effects of this noncontributory pension scheme while correcting for potential selection bias. To measure inequality, I compute Lorenz curves, estimate inequality indices (Gini, Theil, among others), and apply the Atkinson index to evaluate inequality aversion. To assess the effect of PAM on poverty, I use the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) index as the dependent variable in a Tobit model, which accounts for its censored nature at 0 (for nonpoor households). Given that participation in PAM is not random, I also implement a Heckman selection model, using a probit regression in the first stage to estimate the probability of receiving the pension and incorporating the inverse Mills ratio in the second stage to correct for selection bias. Results suggest that PAM has a modest yet statistically significant effect on reducing income inequality among older adults. However, its impact on poverty is limited because the transfer amount remains insufficient to lift most beneficiaries above the poverty line. This study provides empirical evidence on the redistributive role of noncontributory pensions in Mexico. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:cand25:05 |
| By: | Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell; Gal Wettstein |
| Abstract: | Even the best-laid plans can go awry. Individuals face many hurdles to adequate planning for retirement and, even when precautions are taken, they may be overwhelmed by a big enough shock. In particular, large medical and long-term care (LTC) spending shocks can devastate retirees’ hard-won finances. What, then, do individuals and households do when first-line plans to deal with healthcare costs fail? This paper studies the consequences of large out-of-pocket (OOP) medical and LTC shocks on retired households to explore this question, focusing on the Medicare-eligible population of over 65-year-olds. A large shock represents a failure of insurance to insulate the household from the healthcare expenditure, either because of lack of coverage (typical for LTC) or because of cost-sharing in existing insurance (typical in health insurance). |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2025-06 |
| By: | Lekha S. Chakraborty; Yadawendra Singh |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of demographic transition in India, the study highlights the necessity of integrating the elderly population as a critical factor in formula-based intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The demographic transition, characterized by an increasing elderly population, imposes unique fiscal challenges on states, necessitating a revision of transfer formulas to ensure equitable and efficient resource distribution. The paper employs a historical analysis of fiscal devolution criteria, and analyzes the impact of incorporating the elderly population into the devolution formula on the share of states in the total tax transfer to states. The findings indicate that integrating the elderly population into the tax devolution formula can significantly alter the distribution of resources among states, with states benefiting more while having a relatively larger elderly population. The study recommends considering demographic changes by incorporating the elderly to working age population ratio as a criterion used by the Sixteenth Finance Commission to promote a more equitable and efficient allocation of resources. |
| Keywords: | fiscal transfer; tax devolution; demographic transition; gender inequality |
| JEL: | H77 J11 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1056 |
| By: | yan, jiani |
| Abstract: | In social science and epidemiological research, individual risk factors for mortality are often examined in isolation, while approaches that consider multiple risk factors simultaneously remain less common. Using the Health and Retirement Study in the US, the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing in the UK, we explore the predictability of death with machine learning and explainable AI algorithms, which integrate explanation and prediction simultaneously. Specifically, we extract information from all datasets in seven health-related domains including demographic, socioeconomic, psychology, social connections, childhood adversity, adulthood adversity, and health behaviours. Our self-devised algorithm reveals consistent domain-level patterns across datasets, with demography and socioeconomic factors being the most significant. However, at the individual risk-factor level, notable differences emerge, emphasising the context-specific nature of certain predictors. |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:euv7f_v2 |
| By: | Fernandez, William |
| Abstract: | In the developed world, efforts are underway to extend working lives. However, discussions often overlook the potential implications of retirement for individual well-being. While the relationship between retirement and life satisfaction has been extensively studied, the effects of spousal retirement remain underexplored, particularly from a gender and timing perspective. This paper examines the impact of retirement on self-reported life satisfaction among couples in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I employ standard fixed-effects (FE) models and fixed-effects individual slopes (FEIS) to estimate the causal effects of personal and partner retirement on life satisfaction. The findings show that retirement substantially increases life satisfaction, a result that remains robust across methodologies and specifications. For partner retireïment, accounting for heterogeneous trends by health status reveals an overall positive effect, driven by men. Moreover, women appear to be worse off when their husbands retire while they remain in the workforce, whereas the opposite holds for men. To my knowledge, this is the first study to examine the impact of both personal and spousal retirement on life satisfaction using the SOEP. The results provide robust evidence that partner retirement affects life satisfaction, highlighting the importance of understanding retirement as a life course event with intra-household spillover effects that extend beyond the retiring individual. |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mk4tx_v1 |
| By: | Liudmila Malyshava; B. Oak McCoy |
| Abstract: | This inquiry examines the role of federal policy in gender inequality using the principles of institutional adjustment (Foster 1981; Bush 1987) in the context of the Veblenian dichotomy of habit formation. Specifically, the authors assert that Social Security, though exclusive at its inception in 1935, has undergone significant institutional adjustment. Today, Social Security plays a determining role in providing the appropriate institutional space for not only increasing economic security for older women, but also for reducing gender inequality overall. |
| Keywords: | gender disparities; Social Security; evolutionary policy analysis; economic security; retirement |
| JEL: | B25 B5 I38 J1 N3 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1045 |
| By: | Edward Lane |
| Abstract: | For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be severely reduced in the absence of corrective legislative action. Today (February 2024), projections are made by the Social Security Administration that indicate that future benefits will need to be reduced by roughly 25 percent or taxes will need to be increased by about 33 percent, or some combination to avoid benefit curtailment. While Congress will most probably prevent benefits from being reduced for retirees and those nearing retirement, the longer Congress and the president take to address the shortfall, the more politically unpalatable (and possibly draconian) the solutions will be for all others. Dozens of proposals are being evaluated to address the long-term problem by mainstream benefits experts, economists, think tanks, politicians, and government agencies but, with rare exceptions from a few economists, none address the short-term problem of Trust Fund depletion, provide a workable roadmap for the long-term challenges, or consider fundamental financing differences between the federal government and the private sector. This paper aims to address these issues by suggesting legislative changes that will protect the Social Security system indefinitely, help ensure the adequacy of benefits for retirees and their survivors and dependents, and remove confusing and misleading legislative and administrative complexity. In making recommendations, this paper will demonstrate that the Social Security Trust Funds, while legally distinct, are essentially an artificial accounting contrivance within the US Treasury that have become a tool to force program changes that, for ideological reasons, will likely shift an increasing financial burden onto those who can least bear it. Finally, while the focus of this paper is on the Social Security system, it would be incomplete without also addressing, albeit in a limited way, the larger political issue of the nation's debt and deficit along with the implications for inflation. |
| Keywords: | Social Security; FICA; Taxation; Taxes; Trust Fund; Trust Funds; OASI; OASDI; Medicare; Deficit; Inflation; Welfare; Treasury; Debt; Old-age |
| JEL: | H00 H50 H51 H53 H55 H61 H62 H63 H21 H22 H23 H24 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1042 |
| By: | Capretti, Lisa (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Kopinska, Joanna (Sapienza University of Rome); Mariani, Rama Dasi (Roma Tre University); Rosati, Furio C. (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of migrant-provided home-based care on elderly health in Italy, focusing on hospitalisation frequency, length of stay, and mortality. To address potential endogeneity between local health conditions and immigrant settlement , we use an instrumental variable approach. Our results show that an higer supply of migrant caregivers reduces both the frequency (extensive margin) and duration (intensive margin) of hospital admissions. One percentage point increase in the immigrant-to-elderly population ratio leads to a 4% decline in long-term and rehabilitation inpatient admissions, with no effect on acute inpatient. We also find a 1.5% reduction in average admission duration, rising to 3.3% for LRI cases. These effects are primarily driven by diagnoses related to traumatic injuries, musculoskeletal and genitourinary conditions—areas closely linked to home-based mobility and care management. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the observed 1.3 percentage point average annual increase in the migrant-to-elderly ratio during our study period corresponds to an estimated 9% reduction in elderly LRI hospitalisation costs, yielding annual public savings of approximately 0.66% of total hospitalisation expenditures. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, immigration, home-based care, ederly |
| JEL: | F22 H51 I11 I18 J14 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18188 |
| By: | Allison Leanage; Sung-Hee Jeon; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | Using the 2017 Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) linked to the 2015 to 2017 T1 Family File, this study explored the uptake of the disability tax credit (DTC) and the Canada Pension Plan or Quebec Pension Plan (CPP/QPP) disability benefits among persons with disabilities, with a particular focus on their disability and sociodemographic characteristics. The linkage of survey data to administrative records allowed for an examination of persons with disabilities identified in the CSD who may be eligible to claim the DTC or receive the CPP/QPP disability benefits. As expected, results revealed that a higher proportion of persons with disabilities claimed the DTC (about 13%) or received the CPP/QPP disability benefits (about 9%), compared with persons without disabilities (less than 1%). However, a low uptake was observed among persons with disabilities identified in the CSD, with a majority (about 84%) not claiming the DTC or receiving the CPP/QPP disability benefits. These proportions varied by disability severity and type. Persons with severe or very severe disabilities had a higher share of uptake of the DTC or the CPP/QPP disability benefits. Nonetheless, three-fifths to four-fifths of persons with severe or very severe disabilities did not take up these supports, and further analysis revealed that about one-third applied for a DTC Certificate. Persons with developmental disabilities had the highest uptake of the DTC, while those with dexterity disabilities had the highest uptake of the CPP/QPP disability benefits. Lastly, the results also showed that uptake of the DTC and the CPP/QPP disability benefits varied across sociodemographic groups, even after controlling for disability characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Persons with disabilities, Disability tax credit, Canada Pension Plan disability benefit |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500200001e |
| By: | Lê Hồng, Nhung; Yīng, Wéi; Leander, Fintan; Desmond, Flint |
| Abstract: | Life expectancy is influenced by multiple social, economic, and demographic factors, with labor market participation emerging as a critical determinant. This literature review synthesizes evidence from 20 studies examining how employment status, labor quality, formal versus informal work, and socioeconomic factors shape population longevity. Findings indicate that formal, stable employment is associated with longer life expectancy, whereas informal or precarious work limits these benefits. Gender, income, and demographic dynamics further mediate the relationship, creating disparities in life expectancy across and within countries. Labor market regulations and social protections emerge as key mechanisms to enhance longevity and reduce inequalities. The review identifies gaps in longitudinal, comparative, and subgroup-focused research, highlighting opportunities for future studies that integrate labor, demographic, and health perspectives. |
| Keywords: | Labor market participation, Life expectancy, Formal and informal employment, Socioeconomic factors, Labor regulations |
| JEL: | J30 |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126181 |
| By: | Markuss Bergitis (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of investment limits in the Latvian state funded pension scheme and their impact on portfolio diversification, investment opportunities, and investments in the Latvian capital market. Using qualitative analysis of legal provisions and quantitative multi-factor regression, the study finds that strict concentration limits – particularly on individual equity holdings – restrict investments in the Latvian economy and might hinder exposure to key risk factors such as size and value. Policy recommendations include easing concentration and exposure limits, adopting a look-through approach for investments in investment funds, and expanding access to alternative assets. |
| Keywords: | investment regulation, defined contribution pensions, portfolio construction |
| JEL: | G18 G11 H55 |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:dpaper:202502 |
| By: | Alessandro Balestrino; Lisa Grazzini; Annalisa Luporini |
| Abstract: | We study the roles of quantity and quality of public education in an OLG model in which the working adult cares for her child's education as well as for her elderly parent's consumption, and spends time providing assistance to her parent. A more educated agent has more ability, hence she earns more and provides better assistance. First, we identify the optimal quality-quantity mix that a parent chooses as a function of policy (school fees, income tax, pension). Then, we discuss in a steady-state framework the socially efficient determination of the policy tools. We find that school fees tend to reduce education quantity by boosting working time for both kids and adults, and generally favour the generation of working adults (even though they are the ones paying them), possibly at the expense of a negative impact on the well-being of the young and of the elderly. The opposite is true if education is mostly financed through the income tax. Overall quality is only moderately sensitive to changes in the policy mix. |
| Keywords: | Education Policy, Redistributive taxation |
| JEL: | H42 H52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_14.rdf |
| By: | Westerhout, Ed (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:ccc1a0c2-de43-4dd3-97bd-1782023c63df |
| By: | Vellore Arthi; Gary Richardson; Mark Van Orden |
| Abstract: | From 1900 to 1940, ordinary working- and middle-class families saved for retirement and contingencies via ordinary life insurance policies. These policies combined insurance and savings in a single financial instrument that paid its face value to insured individuals who survived until maturity and to beneficiaries if the insured died before the maturity date. The popularity of these policies peaked before WWII when a substantial share of all households and most of the middle class invested in them. This paper explains why these policies were the most popular savings vehicle of their day. Ordinary life policies were well suited to the early twentieth-century economic environment. They had good returns; low risks; tax advantages; and little correlation with returns of competing investments, like bank deposits, building and loan shares, postal savings deposits, real estate, or stocks. The policies protected households from poverty in old age, from the premature death of their breadwinner, and from other risks including disability and deflation. Understanding how households saved in the past has implications for a wide range of literatures in the social sciences. |
| JEL: | G22 G51 G52 J26 J32 N21 N22 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34385 |
| By: | Vásquez Cordano, Arturo Leonardo |
| Abstract: | Los sistemas de pensiones en el Perú han sido bastante criticados debido a su baja tasa de reposición, baja cobertura, bajos niveles de pensiones e insostenibilidad económica a lo largo de sus años de existencia. Bajo este contexto, el Gobierno Peruano ha planteado recientemente la necesidad de reformar estos sistemas para mejorar la situación de los actuales y futuros pensionistas. Sin embargo, un problema fundamental que afecta a estos sistemas es la estructura del mercado laboral peruano, la cual exhibe una alta tasa de informalidad laboral cercana al 80% de la población económicamente activa. Esta informalidad contribuye a generar un escenario poco propicio para los sistemas de pensiones, dado que la informalidad erosiona el mercado laboral formal, lo cual a su turno reduce la eficiencia en la gestión de los fondos de pensiones debido a la menor cantidad de trabajadores aportantes. Asimismo, la informalidad genera un problema de seguridad social pública a futuro, dado que los trabajadores optarán por no ahorrar para su vejez, lo cual generará a futuro un mayor costo social para el Estado. En ese sentido, en este documento se desarrolla un análisis de la problemática de los sistemas de pensiones en el país, el cual abarca la evaluación de los problemas de capacidad de ahorro de los peruanos, la baja competitividad de la economía para promover mayor actividad económica, así como la estructura del mercado laboral peruano que presenta un alto grado de informalidad. Asimismo, se discuten algunas medidas de reforma para mitigar los problemas que afectan a estos sistemas de pensiones. En particular, se evalúa la creación de un seguro de desempleo con la finalidad de reducir la probabilidad de que los trabajadores formales recurran al mercado informal en busca de ingresos. Asimismo, se explora también la alternativa de crear un esquema mixto de aportes previsionales, donde el Estado haga aportes contributivos en base a los fondos que recauda por conceptos de impuestos y donde los trabajadores realicen contribuciones a lo largo de su vida laboral. |
| Keywords: | Sistemas de pensiones, jubilación, reforma, pensión mínima, informalidad laboral, COVID-19. |
| JEL: | J21 J26 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ger:dtrabj:011 |
| By: | van Ewijk, Casper (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Meijdam, Lex (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:4c768d0a-7f76-4fd1-88e1-56656843198c |