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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Sturm, Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates workplace peer efects in retirement by leveraging a German pension reform that eliminated a widely used early retirement option for women. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, I compare women's retirement behavior by exploiting variation in the share of their workplace peers who were afected by the reform based on their birth date. I fnd signifcant and robust peer efects: women are more likely to delay their retirement when their peers extend their employment due to the reform. Investigating potential underlying mechanisms, I provide suggestive evidence for information transmission and social norms about working in old-age. In addition, employer characteristics play an important role in shaping these peer efects. Overall, the fndings highlight the importance of accounting for workplace peer efects when evaluating the broader labor supply impacts of pension policies. |
| Keywords: | peer efects, retirement policies, social interactions |
| JEL: | D22 J08 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuewep:328243 |
| By: | Mohammad Abdullah Al Faisal |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between informal caregiving and both cognitive functioning and healthcare utilization among older adults with dementia. Using data from the RAND version of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal panel of U.S. adults over age 50, covering the years 2010 to 2022, I estimate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variables (IV) models to address potential endogeneity in caregiving decisions. The number of children is employed as an instrument for informal care intensity. While OLS estimates suggest a negative association between informal caregiving and cognition, IV estimates show no significant causal effect after controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and lagged cognition variables. In contrast, IV results indicate that informal care significantly reduces the likelihood of nursing home use, the number of institutional nights, and the probability of institutionalization. No robust causal effects are found for hospital use, doctor visits, or outpatient surgery, although there is some suggestive evidence of a complementary relationship between informal care and home health services. These findings highlight the role of informal caregiving in substituting for institutional care and underscore its importance in long-term care policy for dementia patients. Keywords: Informal Caregiving; Cognitive Decline; Instrumental Variables; Healthcare Utilization: Dementia Patients. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.18468 |
| By: | Patrick Aubert (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
| Abstract: | The reforms that have been implemented in France since the 1970s have greatly increased the options for retiring early with a full‑rate pension, the idea being that this would benefit those individuals presumed to have the shortest life expectancies. These options were initially aimed at individuals who had been declared unfit for work, but they are now largely based on having worked a full career, with this criterion intended to benefit persons who started working at a younger age, who are presumed to be in poorer health. However, although the life expectancy at 60 years of age of this latter group is indeed lower, this trend is only observed for those who started their careers before the age of 20 for men and 18 for women. In practice, no positive relationship can be observed between life expectancy at 60 years of age and the age at which a person is entitled to retire with a full‑rate pension. Among women, the relationship even appears to be negative. |
| Abstract: | Les réformes mises en œuvre depuis les années 1970 ont fortement étendu les possibilités de partir à la retraite au taux plein de façon anticipée, avec l'idée que cela béné‑ ficierait aux assurés dont l'espérance de vie était supposée la plus courte. Ces possibilités concernaient initialement les assurés reconnus inaptes au travail, mais elles s'appuient mainte‑ nant principalement sur le fait d'avoir eu une carrière complète, ce critère visant à avantager les personnes ayant commencé à travailler plus jeunes, supposées en moins bonne santé. Toutefois, si l'espérance de vie à 60 ans de ces dernières s'avère effectivement plus basse, cette relation ne s'observe que pour les débuts de carrière avant 20 ans pour les hommes et avant 18 ans pour les femmes. En pratique, on n'observe pas de relation croissante entre l'espérance de vie à 60 ans et l'âge auquel le système de retraite permet de partir à la retraite à taux plein. Parmi les femmes, la relation semble même décroissante. |
| Keywords: | length of career, life expectancy, retirement age, early retirement, pension reform, Espérance de vie, durée de carrière, âge de départ, retraite anticipée, réforme des retraites |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302171 |
| By: | Da, Linlin (Georgia State University); Jin, Zhezheng (Columbia University); Xu, Qianhui (New York University); Renzi-Hammond, Lisa M. (University of Georgia); Chen, Zhuo (DHHS); Khan, M. Mahmud (University of Georgia); Rajbhandari-Thapa, Janani (University of Georgia); Chen, Xi (Yale University); Wu, Bei (New York University); Song, Suhang (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how SNAP participation may affect age-related cognitive decline among cognitively intact older adults over 10 years. Leveraging a longitudinal survey of SNAP-eligible participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) collected biennially from 2010 to 2020, we estimate the relationship between SNAP participation and cognitive decline across different population groups. We show that SNAP participation is associated with a slower cognitive decline in global cognition, memory, and executive function. A significant three?way interaction among SNAP participation, race/ethnicity, and time indicates faster decline in global cognition among Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic SNAP users. Our findings suggest that SNAP participation may help slow age-related cognitive decline. However, the benefits of SNAP vary across different population groups. Policies promoting equitable access to SNAP benefits have significant potential to improve cognitive health across diverse populations. |
| Keywords: | cognitive decline, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), longitudinal study, disparity |
| JEL: | H53 I38 J14 I18 H75 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18150 |
| By: | Deschacht, Nick (KU Leuven); Guillemyn, Inés (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE), this paper examines occupational pension income and coverage gaps between men and women. The focus is on a group of countries with comparable occupational pension regulations: Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The results show that after accounting for observable characteristics, over half of the gender gap in occupational pension coverage is explained, largely driven by women’s shorter labour market participation, greater part-time work, and lower wages. Factors driving this gap remain constant across birth cohorts. Conditional on receiving an occupational pension, women receive nearly 40 percent less occupational pension income than men, partly due to part-time work and industry of employment. Selection into pension receipt has only a limited impact on the gender pension gap. While pension coverage gap decomposition shows little variation across countries, this is not the case for the gender pension gap, notably with cross-country differences in part-time work. |
| Keywords: | Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, gender occupational pension income and coverage gaps, Yun decomposition, selection, Europe |
| JEL: | H75 I38 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18163 |
| By: | Criscent Birungi; Cody Hyndman |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of optimal annuitization with labour income, where an agent aims to maximize utility from consumption and labour income under age-dependent force of mortality. Using a dynamic programming approach, we derive closed-form solutions for the value function and the optimal consumption, portfolio, and labor supply strategies. Our results show that before retirement, investment behavior increases with wealth until a threshold set by labor supply. After retirement, agents tend to consume a larger portion of their wealth. Two main factors influence optimal annuitization decisions as people get older. First, the agent's perspective (demand side); the agent's personal discount rate rises with age, reducing their desire to annuitize. Second, the insurer's perspective (supply side); insurers offer higher payout rates (mortality credits). Our model demonstrates that beyond a certain age, sharply declining survival probabilities make annuitization substantially optimal, as the powerful incentive of mortality credits outweighs the agent's high personal discount rate. Finally, post-retirement labor income serves as a direct substitute for annuitization by providing an alternative stable income source. It enhances the financial security of retirees. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10371 |
| By: | Kelly Harrington; Laura D. Quinby; Luc Schuster |
| Abstract: | The brief’s key findings are:(1)This study explores whether living in a high-wealth, high-cost state – like Massachusetts – helps or hurts retirees meet their basic needs.(2)In Massachusetts, the cost of living outweighs higher incomes and wealth, so retirees are more likely to struggle than those in other states.(3)Low-income retirees say they often need to adjust to a lower standard of living and that Social Security benefits and housing subsidies are key lifelines.(4)State policymakers could help by: 1) improving property tax deferrals; and 2) adopting an auto-IRA to help workers save if they have no employer plan. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2025-11 |
| By: | Deschacht, Nick (KU Leuven); Guillemyn, Inés (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates individuals’ willingness to pay for pension benefits using a discrete choice experiment with fictitious job advertisements conducted among workers in the United Kingdom (UK). The results indicate that workers are willing to trade off current pay for additional pension benefits, with the marginal worker willing to forgo 0.3% of their current wage for a one percentage point increase in pension benefits. Willingness to pay varies significantly across individuals, increasing with proximity to retirement age, higher income levels, financial planning and financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment (DCE), wage-pension trade-off, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | C9 D9 J16 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18164 |
| By: | Frédérique Nortier-Ribordy (SG-COR - Secrétariat général du Conseil d'orientation des retraites) |
| Abstract: | In this article I propose to illustrate the gender redistribution achieved by the pensions system, primarily by using the return rate on contributions and studying representative cases of executive and non-executive employees born in the year 2000 and working in the private sector. The results indicate that the system broadly tends to redistribute wealth from men to women. In addition to direct solidarity measures, partial relief on pension contributions, the pooling of mortality risk and the architecture of the system itself all appear to have the effect of redistributing money from men to women, while the "25 best years" rule and the index- linking of wages to prices appear to have more ambiguous consequences. Solidarity measures appear to enhance the redistributive nature of the pension system (away from men and towards women), with the exception of the pension bonus for having three children, on account of their proportional nature. Finally, the 2023 reform appears to reinforce distribution towards the lowest-paid women. |
| Abstract: | Cet article se propose d'illustrer, principalement à l'aide du taux de récupération et sur plusieurs cas types de cadres et de non-cadres du secteur privé nés en 2000, les redistributions engendrées par le système de retraite entre les genres. Les résultats montrent que le système serait globalement redistributif des hommes vers les femmes. Hors dispositifs de solidarité, les allègements de cotisations, la mutualisation du risque viager et l'architecture du système auraient des effets redistributifs des hommes vers les femmes tandis que la règle des 25 meilleures années et l'indexation des salaires portés au compte sur les prix auraient des effets plus ambigus. Les dispositifs de solidarité accentueraient la redistribution du système de retraite des hommes vers les femmes, à l'exception des majorations de pension pour trois enfants, du fait de leur caractère proportionnel. Enfin, la réforme de 2023 renforcerait les redistributions vers les femmes ayant les plus bas salaires. |
| Keywords: | pensions, redistribution, men-women, retraite, hommes-femmes |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302247 |
| By: | Alvaro Forteza; Diego Tuzman |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present estimations of the distribution and redistribution of per-period income that can be associated to social security using two approaches, one that follows the conventional practice of treating pensions as government transfers and an- other one that proposes to measure pension income as the return of pension wealth. Using data for Uruguay, we find that the former approach estimates less inequality in the presence of pensions and much larger decrease in inequality due to pensions than the latter. We show that the implicit assumption that individuals would not increase voluntary savings in the absence of pensions contributes to a strong apparent equalizing effect of pensions. As several scholars have warned, this assumption is not warranted. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, Distribution, Redistribution, Fiscal incidence, Fiscal policy |
| JEL: | D31 H55 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0924 |
| By: | Albanese, Andrea (LISER); Deschenes, Olivier (University of California, Santa Barbara); Gathmann, Christina (LISER); Nieto Castro, Adrian (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence of the impact of temperature fluctuations on retirement behavior and underlying mechanisms, combining 30 years of rich longitudinal survey data with granular daily weather information. Exposure to cold and hot temperatures accelerates transitions into retirement, particularly among individuals unaccustomed to such conditions, and the effects are strongest among vulnerable populations facing greater health challenges and limited access to healthcare. Extreme temperatures deteriorate health through a higher incidence of cardiovascular diseases and strokes, reducing individuals' ability to work, while better access to healthcare mitigates the adverse effects of extreme temperatures on retirement behavior. |
| Keywords: | retirement, health, temperature, healthcare |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J26 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18161 |
| By: | Anam Mohammad (Institut des Politiques Publiques – DREES); Delphine Roy (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Maxime Tô (Institut des Politiques Publiques ‑ Institute for Fiscal Studies – CREST.); Todor Tochev (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we analyse the links between earned income in the early years of an individual's career, and the risk that they will become beneficiaries of a disability pension at different points in later life, using the inter-pension schemes sample (EIC, 2009-2017). For men, we identify a clear gradient: the risk of benefiting from a disability pension is 1.5 times greater than the median for the lowest income deciles, and 2.5 times lower for the top decile. This gradient, which is less pronounced for women, remains present even when controlling for socio-professional status and health parameters in the early career, although it is attenuated. Inequality with regard to disability is particularly high at the ages when disability remains relatively rare (between the ages of 40 and 50), and has become more pronounced among more recent generations of men. The probability that an individual will receive a disability pension at an early age thus appears to be a relevant indicator of health inequality. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse le lien entre revenus du travail en début de carrière et risque de devenir bénéficiaire d'une pension d'invalidité à différents âges, à partir des échantillons interrégimes des cotisants (EIC, 2009-2017). Pour les hommes, nous mettons en évidence un gradient marqué : le risque d'invalidité est 1, 5 fois plus élevé pour les premiers déciles par rapport à la médiane, et 2, 5 fois plus faible pour le dernier décile. Ce gradient, moins prononcé chez les femmes, persiste après contrôle des caractéristiques socioprofessionnelles et de santé en début de carrière, même s'il est alors atténué. Les inégalités face à l'invalidité sont particulièrement fortes aux âges où elle est encore relativement rare (entre 40 et 50 ans) et se sont accentuées au fil des générations récentes, pour les hommes. La probabilité de bénéficier d'une pension d'invalidité de façon précoce semble donc être un indicateur pertinent d'inégalités de santé. |
| Keywords: | social protection, income, pension, health inequality, disability, revenu, protection sociale, retraite, inégalités sociales de santé, invalidité |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302114 |
| By: | Pimpertz, Jochen; Schüler, Ruth M.; Stockhausen, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Die Bund-Länder-Kommission "Zukunftspakt Pflege" soll bis zum Jahresende 2025 Grundlagen für eine Pflegereform erarbeiten. Ihr Arbeitsauftrag steht unter dem Oberziel der Beitragssatzstabilität. Dazu beschäftigt sich die Kommission unter anderem mit der Frage, ob eine erweiterte Versicherungspflicht im Kapitaldeckungsverfahren helfen kann, private Haushalte vor stetig steigenden Eigenanteilen bei stationärer Pflege zu schützen. Dieser Ansatz vermag aber keinen Beitrag zur Stabilisierung der Beitragssatzentwicklung zu leisten. Denn er zielt auf die Absicherung bislang nicht versicherter Kostenrisiken ab. Dennoch ließe sich eine erweiterte Versicherungspflicht zum Beispiel mit dem Schutz vor Freifahrerverhalten begründen. Denn einkommensstärkere und vermögende Haushalte könnten versucht sein, auf eigene Vorsorge zu verzichten und stattdessen ihre Mittel im Vertrauen auf die steuerfinanzierte Hilfe zur Pflege für andere Zwecke einzusetzen. Gegen diese Vermutung spricht jedoch, dass die Vermögensausstattung deutscher Haushalte zum Übergang in den Ruhestand die höchsten Werte erreicht. Zusammen mit ihrem Alterseinkommen wären deshalb rund fünf von zehn Rentnerhaushalte in der Lage, die Pflegekosten bei stationärer Versorgung für eine Person bis zu fünf Jahre aus eigener Kraft zu finanzieren. Berücksichtigt man, dass dafür auch eine selbstgenutzte Immobilie beliehen werden kann, dann wären es sogar sieben von zehn Rentnerhaushalten. Die steuerfinanzierte Hilfe zur Pflege fließt aber erst, wenn Antragsteller eigenes Einkommen eingesetzt und Vermögen abgeschmolzen haben. Deshalb wirkt die Bedürftigkeitsprüfung wie ein Selbstbehalt, der vor Freifahrerverhalten schützt. Außerdem würden wohlhabende Rentnerhaushalte von einer erweiterten Versicherungspflicht profitieren. Denn ihr Einkommen bliebe im Pflegefall verschont und das Vermögen fiele im Zweifel den potenziellen Erben zu. Fraglich ist zudem, ob damit der Sozialstaat effizienter wird. Zwar winkt eine Entlastung der Kostenträger steuerfinanzierter Hilfen. Denn die Eigenanteile bei stationärer Pflege sinken um die zusätzliche Versicherungsleistung. Deshalb sinkt auch die Wahrscheinlichkeit, im Pflegefall auf steuerfinanzierte Hilfen angewiesen zu sein. Gleichzeitig würde aber ein Einkommensausgleich notwendig, damit einkommensschwache Haushalte - egal welchen Alters - nicht durch die erforderliche Zusatzprämie über Gebühr belastet werden. Das kostet nicht nur, der Einkommensausgleich wäre auch weniger treffsicher, weil eine Prüfung der Vermögensverhältnisse entfällt. In keinem Fall sollte aber erwogen werden, die bislang privat zu tragenden Eigenanteile an den Pflegekosten über die soziale Pflegeversicherung zu finanzieren. Dann würden die Finanzierungserfordernisse und der Beitragssatz noch stärker ansteigen. Um das Ziel der Beitragssatzstabilität zu erreichen, sollte die Kommission ihr Augenmerk stattdessen darauf lenken, wie eine kapitalgedeckte Versicherungslösung innerhalb der sozialen Pflegeversicherung aufgebaut werden kann, um das Teilleistungsversprechen mitzufinanzieren. So ließe sich der drohende Beitragssatzanstieg nicht nur bremsen, sondern auch die zunehmende Belastung jüngerer Beitragszahler begrenzen. |
| Abstract: | The German Federal-State Commission on the 'Future of long-term Care' is tasked with developing a reform by the end of 2025. Its mandate is guided by the overarching goal of contribution rate stability. To this end, the commission is examining, among other things, whether extending compulsory insurance by a funded scheme could help protect private households from steadily rising co-payments for inpatient care. However, this approach cannot contribute to stabilising contribution rate in the mandatory pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance. This is because it aims to cover cost risks that were not previously insured. Nevertheless, extended compulsory insurance could be justified, for example, by protecting against free-riding behaviour. This is because higher-income and wealthier households could be tempted to forego making their own provisions and instead use their funds for other purposes, relying on tax-financed care assistance. However, this assumption is contradicted by the fact that German households have the highest level of assets at the time of retirement. Together with their retirement income, around five out of ten pensioner households would therefore be able to finance for up to five years the costs of inpatient care for one person from their own resources. Considering that owner-occupied property can also be mortgaged for this purpose, the figure would even be seven out of ten pensioner households. However, tax-funded care assistance is only paid out once applicants have used up their own income and assets. The means test therefore already acts as a kind of excess, protecting against free-riding behaviour. Instead, wealthy pensioner households would benefit from extended compulsory insurance. This is because their income and assets would remain unaffected in the event of long-term care. The remaining assets would instead pass to their potential heirs. It is also questionable whether this would make the welfare state more efficient. It would certainly ease the burden on tax-financed assistance, as additionally insured benefits reduce the likelihood of having to rely on tax-financed assistance in the event of long-term care. At the same time, however, income transfer would be necessary to ensure that low-income households - regardless of age - are not unduly burdened by the additional premium required. Not only would this be costly, but income equalisation would also be less accurate due to the waiver of means testing. Under no circumstances, however, should consideration be given to financing co-payments, which have been borne privately up to now, through pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance. This would lead to an even greater increase in expenditure and contribution rates. To achieve the goal of contribution rate stability, the commission should focus its attention instead on establishing a funded insurance solution within the social care insurance system to help finance the partial benefit promise. This would not only slow down the impending increase in contribution rates but also limit the increasing burden on younger contributors. |
| Keywords: | Einkommensverteilung, Renteversicherung, Pflegeversicherung, Krankenversicherung, Arbeitslosenversicherung, Verteillung und öffentliche Finanzen |
| JEL: | I13 J11 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:328241 |
| By: | Enrique Devesa; Rafael Domenech; Robert Meneua |
| Abstract: | El sistema público de pensiones en España presenta un desequilibrio financiero y actuarial creciente, con un déficit contributivo cercano al 2 % del PIB, al que hay que añadir las necesidades de financiación de las pensiones no contributivas, los complementos a las pensiones mínimas o el gasto por clases pasivas, y un Factor de Equidad Actuarial (FdEA), que refleja prestaciones muy superiores a las cotizaciones. Como alternativa, se propone la transición hacia un sistema de cuentas nocionales, ya aplicado en otros países europeos, que asegura la proporcionalidad entre aportaciones y prestaciones, introduce ajustes automáticos a cambios económicos y demográficos y refuerza la equidad. Bajo el supuesto de que el crecimiento futuro fuera igual al de las últimas décadas, los resultados con datos de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales y simulaciones teóricas muestran que, aunque las pensiones iniciales serían ex ante un 12% inferiores, el nuevo modelo corregiría inequidades y eliminaría el desequilibrio actuarial. Con un crecimiento futuro medio del 1, 23%, como en las proyecciones de la Comisión Europea, el FdEA sería de 1, 25. Para que el FdEA fuera igual a la unidad sería necesario un crecimiento futuro igual a 3, 2%. Esta proyección ex ante no tiene en cuenta los efectos positivos de equilibrio general sobre la inversión y la productividad a que daría lugar un sistema de cuentas nocionales, frente a los costes en términos de estas variables de mantener el sistema actual con unas necesidades crecientes. Teniendo en cuenta todos estos efectos, la renta de ciclo vital con un sistema de cuentas nocionales sería probablemente superior al sistema actual. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-22 |
| By: | Emil Bandoni; Carolina Fugazza |
| Abstract: | Medical expenditures increase sharply with age and can impose a significant finan- cial risk on the elderly, even in settings with universal health insurance. In particular, out-of-pocket medical spending remains highly skewed, with a small fraction of indi- viduals facing catastrophic costs. This paper develops a life-cycle model in which rare, idiosyncratic health shocks generate substantial out-of-pocket expenses late in life. The model demonstrates that accounting for these rare health disasters can explain the moderate risk-taking behavior observed among older investors, without invoking be- quest motives. These findings highlight the importance of tail medical risks in shaping late-life financial decisions. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle portfolio choice, disaster risk, beta distribution, out-of-pocket medical spending |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:748 |
| By: | Jaap A. Bikker; Michiel van Leuvensteijn; Jeroen Meringa |
| Abstract: | This paper adds to the literature by analysing for the first time the functioning of the Dutch pension funds market from a competition or efficiency perspective. Of course, competition is severely limited on this highly regulated market. The analyses focus on a key property of well-functioning markets: the reward of efficiency. The conclusion can be drawn that in the market for pension funds efficiency is indeed rewarded, up to a certain level. New regulations on cost transparency and on the quality of pension boards, and the ongoing consolidation among pension funds may be explanations for this development over time. At the same time, the level at which efficiency is rewarded is very low compared to other financial sectors such as the life insurance and banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Competition; efficiency; net investment returns; market shares; pension funds |
| JEL: | D4 H55 G22 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:839 |
| By: | Davillas, Apostolos (CINCH - Health Economics Research Center, Essen, Germany); Jones, Andrew M. (University of York) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of baseline health in predicting future employment exits, alongside established socioeconomic, job-related and demographic predictors. Using UKHLS, we track employed respondents over 10 years to assess subsequent employment exits. Baseline health is captured using an unusually rich set of measures: self-assessed health (SAH), self-reported diagnosed conditions, psychological distress, allostatic load (composite biomarker index), and epigenetic biological age. Applying a LASSO penalised regression approach, we find that epigenetic biological age and SAH, rather than self-reported conditions, psychological distress, or allostatic load, predict subsequent employment exits, independent of other predictors. A Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition highlights epigenetic biological age as a stronger predictor than SAH. Nevertheless, chronological age is the dominant predictor of future employment exits. Epigenetic biological age measures do allow us to disentangle the role of chronological age, mainly reflecting institutional structures such as retirement eligibility and societal norms, from other contributions that capture age-related health decline that are more directly reflected in epigenetic biological age measures. |
| Keywords: | employment exit, supervised machine learning, LASSO, biomarkers, biological age, epigenetics, labour market |
| JEL: | C5 I10 J01 J20 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18167 |
| By: | Marisa Bucheli; Cecilia González |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the main results of the estimation of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) system for 2017 in Uruguay. We describe the characteristics of the Life Cycle Deficit (LCD) by age and the its main sources of financing: public transfers, private transfers and assets based reallocations. In addition, we estimate the economic support ratio and its projection over time. Where possible, we compare the results are with previous estimations of the NTA system for Uruguay. The results show that in 2017 the surplus stage is between 28 and 58 years old. On the other hand, those under 20 years of age are financed heavily based on private transfers (69% of their DCV), i.e., received from adult members of their own household or from other households, while the remaining 31% of the DCV is financed through public transfers. In contrast, older adults are financed first through public transfers (72%), mainly retirements and pensions, and secondly with income from assets (37%). In addition, they make private transfers, i.e., they give more than they receive through private channels. |
| Keywords: | National Transfer Accounts, intergenerational transfers |
| JEL: | J10 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0824 |
| By: | Brändle, Thomas; Colombier, Carsten; Lerch, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Healthcare expenditure growth is a key economic policy issue threatening the sustainability of public finances in advanced economies. This paper examines the determinants of healthcare expenditure in Switzerland using a time-series analysis for the period 1960-2022. Applying a dynamic OLS and an outlier-robust modified generalized maximum likelihood (MM) estimation approach, we find that income growth, population ageing, and Baumol’s cost disease have all contributed to increasing total and public healthcare expenditure. The analysis suggests an income elasticity between 0.9 and 1.3, accounting for roughly half of the secular increase in healthcare expenditure. Our estimations also suggest a decrease in income elasticity over time. We find that population ageing has contributed by around 15% to the growth in healthcare expenditure. Income growth, demographic shifts, medical progress, slow productivity growth and labor shortages in healthcare are poised to intensify spending pressures in the years ahead, with implications both for total and public healthcare expenditure. Our results substantiate the policy debate on the determinants of healthcare expenditure, provide a tailored evidence basis for the healthcare expenditure projection framework for Switzerland and underscore the need for comprehensive reforms in the health sector to contain expenditure growth. |
| Keywords: | Health expenditure, public finances, income elasticity, population ageing, Baumol’s cost disease |
| JEL: | H51 I18 J11 C22 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/06 |
| By: | V. Kerry Smith |
| Abstract: | This research considers the role of income for subjective longevity assessments. The analysis uses the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. My findings indicate that treating subjective health and longevity assessments as jointly determined is important to understanding the role of income for both judgments. Income has a positive effect on health judgments and does not have a statistically significant effect on subjective longevity when health is rated as excellent or good. Surveys framing the longevity question in direct or probabilistic terms may have complementary roles in estimating subjective longevity. |
| JEL: | D10 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34347 |
| By: | Mergelsberg, Anna; Schöne, Lars Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Dieses Arbeitspapier beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf den Bedarf an Wohn- und Sozialimmobilien am Beispiel der Hansestadt Hamburg. Als zweitgrößte Stadt Deutschlands und bedeutendes urbanes Zentrum eignet sich Hamburg in besonderer Weise für die Analyse der Wechselwirkungen zwischen demografischer Entwicklung und Immobilienbedarf. Zentrales Ziel der Schrift ist es, die Veränderungen in der Nachfrage nach Wohnraum, Kindertagesstätten und Pflegeheimen darzustellen und bestehende strukturelle Defizite zu identifizieren. Die Untersuchung basiert auf einer Kombination aus Literaturrecherche und qualitativen Experteninterviews, wodurch sowohl statistische Daten als auch aktuelle Einschätzungen aus der Praxis einbezogen werden. Auf dieser Grundlage werden die Entwicklungen im Bereich der Wohnimmobilien, der Kita-Immobilien sowie der Pflegeinfrastruktur differenziert betrachtet. Darüber hinaus fließen Prognosen zur Bevölkerungs- und Altersstruktur ein, um die zukünftige Entwicklung des Bedarfs einschätzen zu können. Abschließend werden bestehende Stadtentwicklungsmaßnahmen aufgegriffen und übergeordnete Handlungsempfehlungen formuliert |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines the impact of demographic change on the demand for residential and social real estate, using the Hanseatic city of Hamburg as an example. As Germany's second-largest city and an important urban center, Hamburg is particularly well suited for analyzing the interactions between demographic development and real estate demand. The main objective of this paper is to describe the changes in demand for housing, daycare centers, and nursing homes and to identify existing structural deficits. The study is based on a combination of literature research and qualitative expert interviews, incorporating both statistical data and current assessments from practice. On this basis, developments in the areas of residential real estate, childcare facilities, and care infrastructure are examined in detail. In addition, forecasts on population and age structure are included in order to assess future demand trends. Finally, existing urban development measures are addressed and overarching recommendations for action are formulated. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iiwmps:328260 |
| By: | Füchtenhans, M.; Katiraee, N.; Dobbs, D.; Glock, C.H. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:157481 |
| By: | Ventura, Leonardo |
| Abstract: | In epidemiology, standardization is an essential tool when comparing mortality between populations with different age structures. Using Italy, one of the oldest countries in the European Union, and the EU-27 aggregate as a case study, this methodological note demonstrates how comparisons between crude mortality rates can give misleading interpretations of disease burden. While crude rates suggested a higher mortality in Italy (≈280 per 100 000) compared to the EU-27 (≈259 per 100 000), standardized rates showed the reverse pattern (≈224 vs ≈239 per 100 000). A Kitagawa decomposition confirmed that the excess in crude mortality rates for Italy is almost entirely explained by the effect of age structure rather than true etiological factors. This methodological note illustrates the necessity of proper standardization in cancer epidemiology. All the instructions to download the official datasets and the Python scripts for the analysis are openly available on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.17251977), offering both an educational example and a methodological reference for standardization to support students, policymakers, and researchers in applying these techniques. |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:metaar:kzac4_v1 |