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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | The brief’s key findings are:(1) After a century of decline, work activity among older men stabilized in the 1980s and began to rise in the early 1990s.(2) This turnaround reflected changes in Social Security, retirement plans, the nature of work, education levels, and health coverage.(3) In response, the average retirement age for men rose by about three years to 64.(4) In recent years, it has remained relatively stable as the changes that drove the increase have played themselves out. (5) Thus, further significant increases in the average retirement age are unlikely. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2025-8 |
| By: | Richard Blundell; Jack Britton; Monica Costa Dias; Eric French; Weijian Zou |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we estimate the impact of health on employment for individuals close to retirement age. Estimating the model separately by race and gender, we find that racial differences in employment can be partly explained by the worse health of minorities as well as the larger impact of health on employment for minorities. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/789 |
| By: | Matthew Gudgeon; Pablo Guzman-Pinto; Johannes Schmieder; Simon Trenkle; Han Ye |
| Abstract: | We show that the non-employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) for older workers depend critically on retirement policy. Using German data, we document large bunching in UI inflows at the age that allows workers to claim their pension following UI expiration. Inflows respond strongly to several UI and pension reforms. We probe the implications of these behavioral responses using a dynamic model and find that Germany’s UI and retirement policy changes had substantial effects on the unemployment rate of older workers. Furthermore, we calculate large fiscal externalities from extending UI for older workers, especially under generous retirement policies. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance, moral hazard, retirement, older workers, interactions |
| JEL: | J26 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_481v2 |
| By: | Veltri, Bruno; Blesch, Maximilian |
| JEL: | D84 D86 I38 J11 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325463 |
| By: | Oscar Becerra (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the CEDE Pension Model, a microsimulation tool designed to project key variables of Colombia’s pension system. The model integrates administrative data, household surveys, and institutional parameters to simulate labor histories using Markov chains and to project the number of older adults who will receive pension benefits through 2100. Its design enables the evaluation of policy options for old-age economic protection, highlighting trade-offs across coverage, equity and progressivity, adequacy, and fiscal sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Social protection, pensions, simulation, Colombia |
| JEL: | H55 J26 J14 C15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021633 |
| By: | von Muschwitz, Florian |
| JEL: | J11 D31 D52 D91 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325362 |
| By: | Grossmann, Volker; Strulik, Holger |
| JEL: | D15 I10 I12 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325359 |
| By: | Meng ZHAO; Ting YIN |
| Abstract: | Beyond the natural cognitive decline that accompanies aging, a growing body of research suggests that social capital can influence this process, particularly after retirement. This study investigates the interplay among social capital, retirement, and cognitive function. Using longitudinal Japanese data from 2007, 2009 and 2011, we assess three cognitive domains - orientation to time and place, short-term memory, and calculation ability - and examine how they can be affected by working status and social capital, proxied by participation in social activities and the size of one’s friendship network. The major findings of this study are: (1) the cognitive effects of retirement appear to be complex and dynamic; and (2) social capital and employment interact with each other, with regular participation in social activities playing a protective role in cognitive aging. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25094 |
| By: | Kindermann, Fabian; Kunz, Sebastian |
| JEL: | D15 H55 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325366 |
| By: | Den Haan, Wouter J.; Ferrari, Alessandro; Mazelis, Falk; Ristiniemi, Annukka |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which agents face unemployment risk, but also age and eventually retire. We study the impact of different retirement schemes on life-cycle consumption and the monetary transmission mechanism. Agents save because of a fall in income upon retirement, changes along the life-cycle wage profile, and unemployment risk. Changes in retirement policies affect the distribution of available assets (bonds) among the middle aged and the young, which in turn can have a strong impact on the ability of the young to insure themselves against unemployment risk. Interestingly, it is possible that an increase in retirement benefits leads to higher consumption levels during sustained unemployment spells even though the associated increase in taxes reduces unemployment benefits. The reason is that this policy induces the middle aged to save less which leaves more of the available asset supply to the young. A reduction in the interest rate has a bigger impact on those for whom labor market conditions improve the most and – due to a larger negative income effect – has a smaller impact on those who save more. In terms of the aggregate impact of monetary-policy shocks, our paper confirms conventional wisdom that the expansion is magnified in the presence of incomplete markets, since it is then accompanied by a fall in precautionary savings. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the extent of the incompleteness, i.e., the ability of those subject to unemployment risk to insure themselves, is endogenous. Specifically, it is reduced as the young (middle-aged) hold a larger (smaller) fraction of the available asset supply and this distribution is not only affected by retirement policies, but also by government bond supply and the life-cycle wage profile. Thus, understanding the distribution of assets across different age cohorts is not only important for understanding life-cycle consumption patterns, but also business cycles. JEL Classification: E43, E52, E21, E24 |
| Keywords: | aging, monetary-policy shocks, New-Keynesian model, precautionary savings, unemployment risk |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253125 |
| By: | Anqi Chen; Gal Wettstein |
| Abstract: | The brief’s key findings are:(1)While financial readiness measures suggest many could fall short in retirement, most retirees say they are satisfied with their lives.(2)To explore this disconnect, the analysis reviews existing measures of objective and subjective well-being across many datasets.(3)The results show that the objective measures – such as health and income – are generally poor predictors of reported satisfaction. (4)This finding suggests that survey responses on satisfaction provide little help to policymakers concerned with financial security.(5)Thus, new ways to capture well-being could focus on whether retirees need to cut spending and how they respond to emergencies and expense shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2025-6 |
| By: | Leonardo Gambacorta; Enisse Kharroubi; Emanuel Kohlscheen; Ko Munakata |
| Abstract: | Labour market conditions in emerging market economies remain broadly stable, but unemployment in several advanced economies is edging up, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakening. Cyclical forces partly explain these developments, but longer-term structural forces are also at play, including deregulation and demographic pressures (ageing, migration, participation of older workers). Weaker labour markets may weigh on output, especially in the absence of productivity gains. In some emerging market economies, tighter conditions and stronger wage-price pass-through could raise the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:112 |
| By: | Richard Blundell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Weijian Zou (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/41 |
| By: | Claude Diebolt |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une relecture critique et cliométrique du système d’assurance vieillesse et invalidité instauré en Allemagne à partir de 1889 sous l’impulsion de Bismarck. Loin du mythe d’un modèle fondateur maîtrisé, il met en lumière les nombreuses fragilités d’un dispositif confronté, dès ses débuts, à des déséquilibres financiers, à des effets d’incitation non anticipés et à d’importantes disparités régionales. Construit sur une logique capitalisante sans mécanisme d’ajustement progressif des cotisations, le système révèle rapidement une insoutenabilité structurelle, aggravée par une dynamique des dépenses plus soutenue que celle des recettes. L’analyse quantitative mobilise un ensemble inédit de séries statistiques portant sur les rentes, les cotisations, les frais de gestion et leur distribution territoriale. Elle met en évidence la croissance spectaculaire des rentes d’invalidité, préférées par les assurés pour leur accessibilité et leur rendement comparatif, au détriment des rentes de vieillesse. Le taux de remplacement demeure très faible, révélant ainsi les limites assurantielles du dispositif et son incapacité à garantir un revenu de substitution suffisant. Au-delà de l’étude historique, ce travail ambitionne de nourrir la réflexion contemporaine sur la soutenabilité des systèmes de retraite. Il invite à repenser les fondements économiques, sociaux et politiques des régimes contributifs, et souligne l’importance de la confiance intergénérationnelle et de l’adaptabilité institutionnelle face aux mutations démographiques. L’expérience allemande de la fin du XIXe siècle, à bien des égards, entre en résonance avec les questionnements actuels en France sur l’équilibre et la légitimité des politiques de retraite. |
| Keywords: | Retraite, Bismarck, Assurance sociale, Soutenabilité financière, Cliométrie |
| JEL: | N33 H55 I38 J14 C82 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-28 |