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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Albert Prades-Colomé |
| Abstract: | As populations age, understanding the health impact of long-term care systems is critical for shaping effective policy. This study investigates the association between long-term care benefits and mortality risk among older adults in Catalonia, Spain, using comprehensive administrative data from July 2015 to December 2024. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 50+ who were assessed for long-term care needs, categorizing them by severity (Grades I–III) and type of benefit received: home care, residential care, a combination of both or no benefit. Applying survival analysis techniques—including Kaplan-Meier estimators and Cox proportional hazards models—it finds that individuals with long-term care needs receiving benefits have significantly lower mortality hazards. Notably, individuals transitioning from home to residential care exhibit the most favourable hazard ratios, suggesting that responsive care pathways are associated with better survival outcomes, potentially due to a most accurate matching of care to needs. Residential care alone is associated to higher mortality risk than home care in the population with the highest grades of long-term care needs. Individuals with recognized longterm care needs who do not receive any benefits face significantly higher risks, a pattern that may reflect the consequences of unmet care needs. Mortality risk varies by sex, age, and clinical profile, with higher hazards observed among men, older individuals, and those with haematological, neoplastic, or respiratory conditions. These findings underscore the association between formal long-term care systems and lower mortality risk and emphasize the importance of timely, adaptive care pathways in mitigating health decline among aging populations. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-10 |
| By: | Del Frari, Elisa; Aassve, Arnstein; Melegaro, Alessia (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | Ongoing demographic changes driven by increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates are starting to exert pressure on Pay-As-You-Go pension schemes, which depend on the transfer of resources from the employed population to the retired one. Existing research presents mixed conclusions on the effectiveness of various policy measures designed to ensure the long-term fiscal sustainability of pension systems. This paper contributes to the literature by employing a tailored Agent-Based Model (ABM) for Italy, which integrates demographic and pension dynamics. The model evaluates the impact of policies aimed at increasing labor market participation, specifically reducing the number of NEETs, boosting female labor force participation, introducing more flexible retirement options, increasing immigration and raising fertility rates. Projections extending to 2070 indicate that the aging process will persist, leading to a continued deterioration in the fiscal balance of the Italian pension system, despite the automatic adjustments to the retirement age linked to variations in life expectancy. The results indicate that promoting labour participation significantly enhances the sustainability of the pension system. In particular, policies aimed at increasing female participation emerge as the most effective individual intervention. However, no single measure, nor any combination of the simulated policies, is sufficient to place the Italian pension system to a fully sustainable trajectory. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:g2xqt_v1 |
| By: | Wanting He; Wenyuan Li; Yunran Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces an innovative framework for the periodic evaluation of defined-contribution pension funds. The performance of the pension fund is evaluated not only at retirement, but also within the interim periods. In contrast to the traditional literature, we set the dynamic risk measure as the criterion and manage the tail risk of the pension fund dynamically. To effectively interact with the stochastic environment, a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to search for optimal investment and insurance strategies. Using U.S. data, we calibrate pension members' mortality rates and enhance mortality projections through a Lee-Carter model. Our numerical results indicate that periodic evaluations lead to more risk-averse strategies, while mortality improvements encourage more risk-seeking behaviors. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.05241 |
| By: | Antonio Abatemarco (Department of Economics and Statistics - University of Salerno - Italy); Chiara Ardito (European Commission Joint Research Centre - Ispra - Italy); Roberto Leombruni (Department of Economics and Statistics “Cognetti de Martiis” - University of Turin - Italy); Maria Russolillo (Department of Economics and Statistics - University of Salerno - Italy) |
| Abstract: | Recent pension reforms in many countries, including Italy, have adopted annuity conversion factors that link key pension parameters to average life expectancy, in line with the principle of actuarial fairness. However, when life expectancy systematically differs across socioeconomic groups, relying on uniform factors can lead to perverse redistribution—transferring resources from individuals with shorter lives (typically lower-income) to those with longer lives (typically higher-income). Using rich administrative microdata from a representative sample of private-sector employees in Italy, we quantify the extent of this perverse redistribution by comparing pension wealth distributions under uniform versus differentiated (heterogeneous) annuity factors. We focus on cohorts born between 1960 to 1971 who retire with an old-age or seniority pension between 2021 to 2038. Results show that redistribution is both perverse (from poor to rich) and increasing over time. This trend is driven primarily by widening income-related longevity gaps and further reinforced by Italy’s ongoing transition from a defined benefit to a notional defined contribution scheme. |
| Keywords: | pension; redistribution; annuity; life expectancy |
| Date: | 2025–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:021494 |
| By: | Schmauk, Sarah; Kreyenfeld, Michaela |
| Abstract: | The Motherhood Pension Gap (MPG) measures the difference in pension entitlements between mothers and childless women. It indicates whether parenthood is a risk factor for women’s old-age security and whether social policies can cushion some of the adverse effects of having children. In this paper, we raise the question of whether pension-related childcare credits are effective in increasing women’s public pension entitlement in Germany and whether patterns differ by region (East and West Germany), birth cohorts, age, and the number of children. The analysis is based on the Versichertenkontenstichprobe 2020 (VSKT2020), a subsample of the register data from the German Pension Fund (n=231, 738). The variable of interest is a woman’s accumulated public pension entitlement, calculated with and without pension-related childcare credits. The results show a strong and pronounced public pension penalty for mothers in West Germany, but not in East Germany. Once pension-related childcare credits are considered, the motherhood pension gap is greatly reduced during the childbearing years. For example, for a West German mother of the cohorts 1952-59, the motherhood pension gap at age 45 drops from 44% to 21% when pension-related childcare credits are accounted for. However, the gap widens again at later ages. |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qw7zd_v1 |
| By: | Mani, Sneha; Gupta, Aashish; Elo, Irma |
| Abstract: | Scientific understanding of the relationship between environmental hazards and cognitive health at older ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is poor. Using data from the Longitudinal Aging Study of India and the World Health Organization's Survey on Global AGEing and adult health for four LMICs, we examine the association of direct and local exposure to polluting cooking fuels with cognitive health at older ages. We document the negative influence of both: cognitive health is poorer among members of households that use polluting fuels and among residents of neighborhoods where the use of polluting fuels is more common. These associations cannot be explained by accounting for individual or local differences in socioeconomic status. Consistent with direct impacts of polluting fuels, we find that women in households where the use of polluting fuels is common have the lowest predicted cognitive scores. Our findings reveal the substantial direct influence and negative externalities of polluting fuel use in LMICs and help understand why overall cognitive health may be poor in these settings. Moving away from polluting fuels toward clean fuels may not only reduce individual risk but also community-level exposure to air pollution, contributing to better cognitive health in older ages. |
| Date: | 2025–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:73nyb_v1 |
| By: | Bassoli, Elena (ETH Zurich); Eibich, Peter (PSL Université Paris Dauphine); Zai, Xianhua (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine the dynamic effects of the loss of a spouse on mental health. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for 28 European countries over the period 2004-2022 and estimate event study regressions to examine how individuals’ mental health changes over the transition into widowhood. We find no evidence of changes in mental health before the death of a spouse due to anticipation or caregiving effects. Bereaved individuals experience up to 1.5 additional depressive symptoms and their risk of depression increases by around 20 percentage points, with similar effects for men and women. Individuals adapt relatively quickly and their risk of depression reverts to baseline levels within 3 years of the death. We provide suggestive evidence that this adaptation is in part due to increased rates of social participation. We also find some evidence that the impact on mental health is stronger for individuals living in Eastern Europe and in countries with strong family ties. In addition, individuals in countries with stronger family ties adapt less quickly. |
| Keywords: | depression, anticipation, adaptation, mental health, widowhood, SHARE, event study |
| JEL: | I14 J12 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18027 |
| By: | Alberto Batinti; Joan Costa-Font; Vasuprada Shandar; Joan Costa-i-Font |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of royalty status - historically rooted legal privilege enjoyed by hereditary monarchs - on human longevity, a proxy of individuals’ health capital. We disentangle royalty status that encompassed serving as heads of state, and hence subject to status-related stress, from other family members alongside their contemporary countrymen. We exploit a dataset containing relevant demographic data and specifically the lifespan (age at death) of European Royals and their families spanning the past three centuries (1669 to 2022) from the sixteen European countries, including information for 845 high-status nobility and relative monarchs which is compared to otherwise similar countrymen by adjusting for relevant confounders. We document robust evidence of a statistically significant gap in life expectancy between monarchs and other members of the royal family, as well as between monarchs and the general population of an average of 5.2 to 7.1 years longer than their contemporaneous countrymen. |
| Keywords: | royal family, monarchy, life expectancy, health inequality, social determinants of health, healthy lifestyles, universal health insurance, age at death |
| JEL: | I18 N13 P00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12047 |