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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Sona Badalyan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how labor demand factors—specifically worker substitutability and job-specific skills—shape employment responses to a rise in the early retirement age. Using a regression discontinuity design, I exploit a 1999 German reform that eliminated the option for women to retire at age 60. Before the reform, older workers could exit voluntarily, thereby imposing turnover costs on firms. Afterward, firms were better able to retain less substitutable, more difficult-to-replace workers for whom turnover costs are higher. At the same time, the loss of early pension eligibility reduced workers’ outside options, allowing firms to offer lower wages. The reform thus improved the retention of less substitutable workers, lowering both turnover costs and wages. |
| Keywords: | aging, raise in the retirement age, internal labor markets, human capital, worker substitutability |
| JEL: | H32 H55 J21 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp794 |
| By: | Giles, John T. (World Bank); Joubert, Clement (World Bank); Tanaka, Tomoaki (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high-informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support, and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | informality, savings, retirement, pensions, LMICs |
| JEL: | H55 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17886 |
| By: | Cristina Belles-Obrero; Giulia La Mattina; Han Ye |
| Abstract: | The prevalence and determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) among older women are understudied. This paper documents that the incidence of IPV remains high at old ages and provides the first evidence of the impact of access to income on IPV for older women. We leverage a Mexican reform that lowered the eligibility age for a non-contributory pension and a difference-in-differences approach. Women’s eligibility for the pension increases their probability of being subjected to economic, psychological, and physical/sexual IPV. In contrast, we show that IPV does not increase when men become eligible. Looking at potential mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that men use violence as a tool to control women’s resources. Additionally, women reduce paid employment after becoming eligible for the pension, which may indicate that they spend more time at home, leading to greater exposure to potentially violent partners.The prevalence and determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) among older women are understudied. This paper documents that the incidence of IPV remains high at old ages and provides the first evidence of the impact of access to income on IPV for older women. We leverage a Mexican reform that lowered the eligibility age for a non-contributory pension and a difference-in-differences approach. Women’s eligibility for the pension increases their probability of being subjected to economic, psychological, and physical/sexual IPV. In contrast, we show that IPV does not increase when men become eligible. Looking at potential mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that men use violence as a tool to control women’s resources. Additionally, women reduce paid employment after becoming eligible for the pension, which may indicate that they spend more time at home, leading to greater exposure to potentially violent partners. |
| Keywords: | Non-contributory pension, Intimate partner violence, Retirement, Income |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J12 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_602v2 |
| By: | Vikesh Amin (Central Michigan University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Jason M. Fletcher (University of Wisconsin-Madison, IZA, and NBER); Carlos A. Flores (California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, IZA, and GLO); Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | We revisit much-investigated relationships between schooling and health, focusing on schooling impacts on cognitive abilities at older ages using the Harmonized Cognition Assessment Protocol in the Health & Retirement Study (HRS) and a bounding approach that requires relatively weak assumptions. Our estimated upper bounds on the population average effects indicate potentially large causal effects of increasing schooling from primary to secondary; yet, these upper bounds are smaller than many estimates from the literature on causal schooling impacts on cognition using compulsory-schooling laws. We also cannot rule out small and null effects at this margin. We do, however, find evidence for positive causal effects on cognition of increasing schooling from secondary to tertiary. We replicate findings from the HRS using older adults from the Midlife in United States Development Study Cognitive Project. We further explore possible mechanisms through which schooling may be working—such as health, SES, occupation and spousal schooling—finding suggestive evidence of effects through such mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Schooling, Cognition, Bounds, Aging, Partial-Identification |
| JEL: | I10 I26 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:25-417 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Conrad Landis |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) supports longevity across the European Union by analyzing the relationship between key longevity indicators and the SDG framework. Longevity is understood not merely as increased life expectancy but as the capacity to live longer lives in good health, with economic security, autonomy, and social inclusion. Drawing on Eurostat's "Ageing Europe" indicators, we identify 14 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) spanning six dimensions: population developments, housing and living conditions, health and disability, working and retirement, pensions and income, and social inclusion. Using the most recent data for EU 27 countries, we apply cross sectional regressions to examine how these KPIs correlate with national SDG scores. The analysis reveals strong and statistically significant associations between several longevity KPIs--particularly life expectancy at birth and age 65, healthy life years at age 65, and self-perceived health status--and SDGs related to health (SDG 3), gender equality (SDG 5), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), education (SDG 4), and partnerships (SDG 17). Digital inclusion and participation in lifelong learning also emerge as key enablers of sustainable longevity, showing broad linkages to innovation, social cohesion, and economic resilience. The findings suggest that longevity is a deeply multidimensional phenomenon, shaped by structural policies far beyond healthcare. The SDGs provide a coherent and measurable framework for aligning policies and investments toward inclusive, healthy, and resilient ageing. This paper contributes to a growing body of evidence demonstrating that sustainable development and longevity are mutually reinforcing agendas. |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2536 |
| By: | Katikar Tipayalai; Nattasit Chittavimongkhon; Panjapon Sattayanurak |
| Abstract: | In today’s world, where digital transformation offers numerous benefits, its uneven distribution—often driven by socioeconomic and demographic factors—can exacerbate social inequalities. This study explores the digital divide among vulnerable elderly populations in Thailand, drawing on survey data collected in Lampang province, a region with one of the highest proportions of older persons relative to its population. Focusing on their digital skills and access to government welfare services, we assess digital competence across five key domains: information literacy, communication, online safety, problem-solving, and confidence in engaging with online activities. The findings reveal significant gaps in digital literacy, with limited device ownership and internet access identified as critical barriers. Logistic regression analysis indicates that education, income, and personal access to technology are significant predictors of digital competence. While the results are region-specific, they provide important insights into the challenges faced by older populations in similar socioeconomic contexts. The study underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as digital skills training and increased access to affordable technology, to promote inclusion and enhance the quality of life for older adults. These efforts are crucial for reducing disparities and ensuring equitable participation in Thailand’s increasingly digital society. Therefore, implementing policies and interventions that effectively address this divide is essential to fostering greater social and digital inclusion. |
| Keywords: | Digital disparity; Logistic regression; Older adults; Aging society; Thailand |
| JEL: | J18 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:234 |
| By: | Abigail Hurwitz; Olivia S. Mitchell |
| Abstract: | We investigate how advisors’ own health and survival assessments, and information about their advisees’ health and survival probabilities, shape their recommendations regarding retirement spending and investment. Using experiments involving amateur and professional advisors, we show that advisors’ self-assessments have only mild effects on their recommendations, but they do respond differently when provided longevity and health information about their advisees. Moreover, amateur advisors mainly react to simple cues, while professional advisors are more sensitive to client-specific information. While many rely on informal advice from friends or family, amateurs often cannot accurately analyze and utilize key information needed to provide suitable advice. |
| JEL: | D91 G52 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33872 |
| By: | Paulina Granados Zambrano; María Fernanda Toledo Badilla; Ximena Quintanilla Domínguez (Studies Division, Chilean Pension Supervisor) |
| Abstract: | El objetivo principal de este documento de trabajo es analiza el primer pilar del sistema de pensiones en Chile, su evolución y sus resultados. |
| Keywords: | Sistema de pensiones de contribución definida, Mercado laboral, empleo |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:74 |
| By: | Vikesh Amin (Central Michigan University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Jason M. Fletcher (University of Wisconsin-Madison, IZA, and NBER); Carlos A. Flores (California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, IZA, and GLO); Iliana Kohler (University of Pennsylvania); Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania); Shana D. Stites (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Higher schooling attainment is associated with better cognitive function at older ages, but it remains unclear whether the relationship is causal. We estimate causal effects of schooling on performances on the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD) word-recall (memory) test at older ages in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. We used harmonized data (n=30, 896) on older adults (=50 years) from the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health. We applied an established nonparametric partialidentification approach that bounds causal effects of increasing schooling attainment at different parts of the schooling distributions under relatively weak assumptions. We find that an additional year of schooling, moving from none into primary school, increased word-recall scores by between 0.01–0.13 standard deviations (SDs) in China, 0.01–0.06SDs in Ghana, 0.02–0.09SDs in India, 0.02–0.12SDs in Mexico, and 0–0.07SDs in South Africa. No results were obtained for Russia at this margin due to the low proportion of older adults with primary schooling or lower. At higher parts of the schooling distributions (e.g., high-school or university completion) the bounds cannot statistically reject null effects. Our results indicate that increasing schooling from never attended to primary had long-lasting effects on memory decades later in life for older adults in five diverse low-and-middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | schooling, cognitive function, CERAD, LMICs, nonparametric identification |
| JEL: | C14 I15 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:25-418 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Asian Growth Research Institute, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, and National Bureau of Economic Research, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we discuss bequests and other intergenerational transfers and what impact they have on the consumption, saving, and labor supply behavior of households. We show that bequests and other intergenerational transfers are prevalent in most countries, that they are sometimes motivated by altruism and sometimes by selfishness, that they affect the consumption and saving behavior of households to some extent, especially that of elderly households, that they affect the labor supply behavior of households, especially that of bequest recipients, and that they have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Altruism; Bequests; Consumption; Inter vivos transfers; Intergenerational transfers; Labor supply; Life-cycle model; Long-term care insurance; Ricardian equivalence; Saving, Selfishness; Strategic bequest motive; Wealth disparities |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D14 D15 D31 D64 E21 H3 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-14 |
| By: | Adeline Delavande; Gizem Koşar; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online survey of 2, 200 middle-aged married couples in the U.S. Our focus is on expectations about Social Security benefits. We first document misalignment in expectations: the correlation between partners’ beliefs about a given spouse’s Social Security benefits is 0.70, well below full agreement. We also show that this imperfect alignment is systematically associated with couple-specific characteristics. To establish causal evidence on information spillovers, we implement a randomized information experiment paired with a sequential survey design, where the index spouse receives targeted information, and the other is surveyed a few days later. Our findings reveal that information provided to the index spouse partially spills over to their partner, with the average treatment effect on the second spouse’s expectations being about half that observed for the index spouse. Using detailed survey data on measures of communication frictions, cognitive barriers, and the value of information, we identify key drivers of information flow. Spillovers are larger when communication barriers are low and when the information is particularly valuable. We also show that the information treatment enhances conditions for better intra-household decision-making. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating realistic communication frictions into models of household decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Information; spillovers; expectations; Household financial decisions; frictions; Social Security benefits; retirement |
| JEL: | D83 D84 D13 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:100084 |
| By: | Can, Zeynep Gizem (University of Galway); O'Donoghue, Cathal (University of Galway) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the social security system and transfer expenditures in Türkiye in combating poverty. Social security systems aim to reduce the effects of poverty by ensuring that individuals meet their basic needs. Transfer expenditures in Türkiye, while providing temporary support especially for disadvantaged groups, carry the risk of creating dependency relations in the long term. While the short-term effects of transfer expenditures are frequently addressed in the literature, studies on their role in combating structural poverty are limited. This study evaluates the effects of transfer expenditures on the capacity of individuals to create sustainable welfare. The case of Türkiye is important due to the institutional transformation of social security policies and the politicization of aid in recent years. The study analyzes the effectiveness of social transfers at the regional level using the data analysis method. Thus, the structural effects of social policies in reducing poverty are investigated and policy recommendations for more comprehensive, long-term strategies are presented. The findings aim to produce generalizable inferences for similar developing countries based on the case of Türkiye. |
| Keywords: | social security, social transfers, poverty, data analysis |
| JEL: | I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17890 |
| By: | Margherita Borella; Mariacristina De Nardi; Fang Yang; Johanna P. Torres Chain |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and estimates a dynamic life-cycle model to quantify why households save and work. The model incorporates multiple sources of risk—health, marital status, wages, medical expenses, and mortality—as well as endogenous labor supply and human capital accumulation, retirement, and bequest motives at the death of the first and last household member. We estimate it using PSID and HRS data for the 1941–1945 cohort via the Method of Simulated Moments. Eliminating bequest motives reduces aggregate wealth by 23.8% and labor earnings by 1.2%; removing medical expenses lowers them by 13.1% and 0.7%. Wage risk is crucial for early-life saving: its removal reduces wealth by 10.4% but raises earnings by 2.3%. Eliminating marriage and divorce dynamics leads couples—numerous and wealthier—to save and work slightly less, and singles—fewer and poorer—to save and work considerably more. These effects largely offset in the aggregate. Removing all saving motives beyond retirement needs and lifespan uncertainty lowers wealth by 56.9% and earnings by 2.7%. These findings show that capturing multiple risks and behavioral margins jointly is essential to understanding household saving and labor supply. |
| JEL: | E20 I1 J0 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33874 |
| By: | Robert Kaestner; Anuj Gangopadhyaya; Cuiping Schiman |
| Abstract: | Racial differences in mortality are large, persistent and likely caused, at least in part, by racism. While the causal pathways linking racism to mortality are conceptually well defined, empirical evidence to support causal claims related to its effect on health is incomplete. In this study, we provide a unique set of facts about racial disparities in mortality that all theories of racism and health need to confront to be convincing. We measure racial disparities in mortality between ages 40 and 80 for both males and females and for several causes of death and, measure how those disparities change with age. Estimates indicate that racial disparities in mortality grow with age but at a decreasing rate. Estimates also indicate that the source of racial disparities in mortality changes with age, sex and cause of death. For men in their fifties, racial disparities in mortality are primarily caused by disparities in deaths due to external causes. For both sexes, it is racial disparities in death from healthcare amenable causes that are the main cause of racial disparities in mortality between ages 55 and 75. Notably, racial disparities in cancer and other causes of death are relatively small even though these causes of death account for over half of all deaths. Adjusting for economic resources and health largely eliminate racial disparities in mortality at all ages and the mediating effect of these factors grows with age. The pattern of results suggests that, to the extent that racism influences health, it is primarily through racism’s effect on investments to treat healthcare amenable diseases that cause racial disparities in mortality. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33905 |
| By: | Gideon Bornstein |
| Abstract: | Over the past four decades, the U.S. economy has seen a decline in the share of young firms alongside a rise in the profit share of GDP. This paper explores how population aging contributes to these twin trends through a demand-side channel. The core hypothesis is that younger households exhibit lower consumer inertia—a tendency to stick with previously chosen products—than older households. As demand shifts toward more inertial consumers, entry becomes harder, incumbents raise markups, and market share tilts toward larger firms. To quantify this mechanism, I develop and calibrate a firm dynamics model with overlapping generations of consumers who differ in their degree of inertia. Using detailed micro data, I show that younger households are significantly less inertial. The model implies that population aging accounts for 20%–30% of the observed decline in young firms and rise in profits. Reduced-form evidence across U.S. states and product categories supports the model’s predictions. |
| JEL: | D40 E20 J10 L10 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33820 |
| By: | Vicente Céspedes Castillo; Paulina Granados Zambrano; Gabriel Parra Gonzalez; Ximena Quintanilla Domínguez; Ursula Schwarzhaupt Gueneau (Studies Division, Chilean Pension Supervisor) |
| Abstract: | La Superintendencia de Pensiones ha desarrollado un modelo de proyección que permite anticipar la sostenibilidad tanto del Fondo de Cesantía Solidario (FCS) como de las Cuentas Individuales de Cesantía (CIC), y evaluar los efectos de posibles reformas al Seguro de Cesantía. Los resultados de estas proyecciones, para el diseño vigente del SC, indican que la sostenibilidad de largo plazo no estaría en riesgo, incluso ante eventuales escenarios de crisis económica y financiera.. |
| Keywords: | Seguro de Cesantía, empleo, trabajo |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sdp:sdpwps:75 |