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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Social Funds and Pensions Social Protections and Labor-Pensions & Retirement Systems Finance and Financial Sector Development-Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41329 |
| By: | Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger (WIFO); Thomas Horvath; Thomas Leoni (University of Applied Sciences Wiener Neustadt); Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Philipp Warum (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | As populations in Asia and Europe face unprecedented levels of ageing, the demand for long-term care (LTC) is escalating, thereby challenging the sustainability of social protection systems. This paper employs a novel dynamic microsimulation model to project LTC demand and supply in Austria and Spain through 2070, utilising data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The findings of the study indicate that, in the context of the current demographic trends, both Austria and Spain are on course to experience an approximate 90 percent increase in the number of LTC hours required. This increase is primarily driven by improved mortality rates and shifts in population age structures. The model applies a stylized needs assessment and reveals that while the proportion of individuals needing care may decrease until 2040, significant increases in care gaps are anticipated thereafter, necessitating a substantial increase in both formal and informal care provision. The analysis further underscores pronounced variations in care delivery models across the two nations. While Austria places greater emphasis on formal care, Spain's system is marked by a more pronounced reliance on informal care. The analysis suggests that both countries will encounter difficulties in meeting the increasing demand, with the gap between care needs and available hours more than doubling, particularly in Spain. Furthermore, educational attainment plays a crucial role in shaping future care needs, with potential strategies to mitigate demand through enhanced educational opportunities. The scenarios presented demonstrate the sensitivity of LTC needs to assumptions about health trends, emphasising the importance of proactive policy measures tailored to each country's socio-cultural context. The findings of this study indicate a necessity for augmented public funding for formal care services, the implementation of supportive policies for informal caregivers, and the adoption of collaborative approaches among stakeholders to establish sustainable and equitable solutions to the challenges posed by long-term care. The study acknowledges limitations related to data and modelling choices, and suggests avenues for further research on the interplay between education, health improvements, and the evolving dynamics of care provision. |
| Date: | 2025–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:700 |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez; Juan Oliva; Cristina Vilaplana Prieto; Analía Viola |
| Abstract: | Population ageing in Spain is driving a growing demand for long-term care (LTC) services, particularly for individuals with cognitive impairments resulting from neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s. While ageing reflects societal progress, it poses challenges for healthcare and LTC systems. In Spain, around 734, 000 to 937, 000 people live with dementia, and cognitive impairment affects 18.5% of those aged 65 and older, rising sharply in older age groups. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-03 |
| By: | Becerra Camargo, Oscar Reinaldo (Universidad de los Andes); Cavallo, Eduardo (Inter-American Development Bank); Guzmán Gutiérrez, Carlos Santiago (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of behavioral frictions and information provision on retirement planning through the Dual Advisory program in Colombia. The program gradually became mandatory to prevent costly mistakes and offered personalized information on switching pension plans. Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we estimate the causal effects of the program on switching behavior and contribution patterns. The findings indicate that the program reduced unfavorable switches by approximately 29.5%, due to a combination of deterring would-be switchers for whom the switch would have resulted in lower expected pension (22.7%) and the information received by those who attended the sessions (6.7%). However, the program also deterred favorable switches by 10.7%. There is no evidence of the program affecting contribution frequency post-intervention. |
| Keywords: | Information provision; retirement planning; pensions; switching cost; inertia. |
| JEL: | D14 G53 H55 I22 |
| Date: | 2025–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021365 |
| By: | Junya Hamaaki (Faculty of Economics, Hosei University); Yoshitomo Ogawa (Faculty of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of Japan's pension reform on divorce. In typical Japanese couples, spouses enjoy marital gains from the division of labor, not only during their younger years but also into old age, with the primary earner generating income through pension benefits and the dependent spouse contributing through household work. The reform allowed dependent spouses to claim half of the primary earner's pension contributions during the marriage upon divorce. Thus, dependent spouses could secure these gains without maintaining marital relationships. Using the reform as a natural experiment, we test the hypothesis that the reduction in marital gains increased the likelihood of divorce. Our analysis reveals that among couples experiencing the largest reduction in these gains, divorce incidents rose by 10 to 20% in a few years after the reform. This finding highlights the importance of marital gains from the division of labor in shaping divorce decisions. |
| Keywords: | Divorce, Marital gains, Pension reform, Marital property division |
| JEL: | D13 H31 J12 K36 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:289 |
| By: | Hongsoo Kim |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Communicable Diseases Health, Nutrition and Population-Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Policy and Management Health, Nutrition and Population-Population Policies |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40702 |
| By: | Richiardi, Matteo; Bronka, Patryk; van de Ven, Justin |
| Abstract: | One challenge presented by population aging is how to adjust public support for social care in a way that achieves desired quality of life outcomes without compromising budget sustainability. This study uses best-practice methods of economic analysis to explore projections for care and related public policy between 2020 and 2070 in the United Kingdom (UK). The UK is an interesting case study, as diverse social care provisions are adopted in the four constituent countries. Projections indicate that the number of people in need of care will approximately double over the prospective half century, with informal carers playing a key role in meeting the growing burden. Policy counterfactuals contrast the budgetary implications of closing the social care gap, particularly in England and Northern Ireland, and of easing poverty among informal carers |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:cempwp:cempa5-25 |
| By: | Minamo MIKOSHIBA |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the welfare implications of Japan’s public long-term care insurance (LTCI) system, focusing on the significance of a universal insurance system with in-kind benefits, in a rich overlapping generations model characterized by two-sided altruism. The welfare effects of the LTCI reform are influenced by caregiver labor productivity and generosity of the means-tested welfare program. When caregiver productivity is low, universal LTCI offering cash benefits can improve welfare more effectively than a system with in-kind benefits, despite the positive impact of the in-kind policy on caregiver labor supply. Cash benefits can maintain positive welfare effects while simultaneously reducing government spending on LTCI. Eliminating universal LTCI transfers the burden of care to families and increases reliance on welfare programs, partially offsetting reductions in government expenditure. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25030 |
| By: | Catarina Midões (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Enrica De Cian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is bringing abnormally high temperatures to Europe and thus a substantial physical and mental health burden, especially for older populations. We expand the individual longitudinal Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement (SHARE) on the 50+ population in Europe, with heat exposure from gridded datasets and derived household location. We estimate that ten extra days in a year at 31º, an increase predicted for many European regions, without air-conditioning (AC), increases by 3 - 7 p.p. the probability of reporting fatigue, by 2 - 4 p.p. of reporting reduced appetite and by 4 p.p. of reporting difficulties sleeping. It also increases the probability of being irritable by 4 p.p., but the effect is short lived. Ultimately, heat increases the probability of hospitalization by 2 - 4 p.p.. Addressing potential biases in estimating AC's effect, we find that it protects meaningfully against hospitalization risk and especially against fatigue, but not against irritability nor difficulties sleeping. These states are mechanisms behind socio-economic outcomes connected with rising temperatures - cognitive performance, labour productivity, and aggressive behaviours. We find that the effects of heat and AC's protection accrue over time. The evidence of significant residual impacts calls for research on alternative adaptation measures. |
| Keywords: | Climate Adaptation, Air-conditioning, Heat, Well-being, Climate Change |
| JEL: | D12 O13 Q41 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:03 |
| By: | Francesco Scervini (University of Pavia - Department of Social and Political Science); Serena Trucchi (Cardiff University - Cardiff Business School, Netspar and Masaryk University) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the understanding of alcohol consumption in adulthood by investigating the impact of a specific life event: the transition to an empty nest, when adult children move out of the parental home. Our findings show a significant increase in alcohol consumption in an empty nest, characterised by more regular drinking patterns and a moderate increase in daily intake. The most affected groups include couples, high income individuals, those actively employed, and respondents aged 45-60. We also provide evidence on the mechanisms underlying this relationship, supporting a key role of relaxation and changes in time use. |
| Keywords: | Empty nest, alcohol consumption, longitudinal data |
| JEL: | D1 I12 I31 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2025-02 |