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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Bergschneider, Henrik; Kottmann, Robin; Schmitz, Hendrik; Westphal, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of retirement on cognitive functioning among women aged 63 to 67 by exploiting a German retirement reform that raised the early retirement age for women born after 1951 by three years, from 60 to 63. Our indicators of cognitive functioning are experimental measures (word recall, semantic fluency, and the Stroop test) from a large biomedical data set, as well as the diagnosis of cognitive disorders from administrative health insurance claims. We find reductions of around 12% of a standard deviation per year in retirement for measures of fluid intelligence and of an insignificant 6% for crystallized intelligence. The diagnosis of cognitive disorders remains unaffected. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen des Ruhestands auf die kognitiven Fähigkeiten von Frauen im Alter von 63 bis 67 Jahren, indem wir eine deutsche Rentenreform nutzen, die das Frührenteneintrittsalter für Frauen, die nach 1951 geboren wurden, um drei Jahre, von 60 auf 63 Jahre, anhob. Unsere Indikatoren für die kognitive Leistungsfähigkeit sind experimentelle Messwerte (Tests zu Worterinnerung, semantischer Wortflüssigkeit und zum Stroop Effekt) aus einem großen biomedizinischen Datensatz sowie die Diagnose kognitiver Erkrankungen aus administrativen Krankenversicherungsdaten. Als Ergebnis finden wir eine Reduktion von etwa 12% einer Standardabweichung pro Jahr im Ruhestand für Maße der fluiden Intelligenz und eine insignifikante Reduktion von 6% für kristalline Intelligenz. Die Diagnose von kognitiven Erkrankungen bleibt davon unberührt. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive abilities, retirement, pension reform |
| JEL: | C31 J14 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:311302 |
| By: | Hanke Heun-Johnson; Darius Lakdawalla; Julian Reif; Bryan Tysinger |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality among the US population, impacting the future outlays of the US Social Security Administration (SSA) Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. This study aimed to estimate the net effects of pandemic-induced excess deaths on OASDI liabilities, utilizing dynamic microsimulation models, and examined how these effects vary across different socioeconomic and racial-ethnic groups. Data on excess deaths were obtained from the CDC and processed to account for seasonal variations and demographic disparities. The simulation incorporated demographic and health status variables to project OASDI retirement and disability benefits, and survivors’ benefits for spouses and children, for respondents with highest COVID mortality risk. The pandemic resulted in approximately 1.7 million excess deaths among individuals aged 25 and older between 2020 and 2023. These premature deaths reduced future retirement payments, which increased the Social Security fund by $294 billion. However, this gain was offset by reductions in future payroll tax flows ($58 billion) and increased payments to surviving spouses and children ($32 billion), resulting in a net impact of $205 billion. Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic decedents left behind more underage children per capita, yet payments to their surviving family members were lower compared to non-Hispanic White decedents, across all educational levels. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has complex implications for the OASDI program. While there is an estimated net positive financial impact due to reduced future retirement benefits, this effect is mitigated by decreased payroll tax contributions and increased survivors’ benefits. The differential impact by race and ethnicity highlights existing inequalities and underscores the importance of considering demographic disparities in future projections of Social Security liabilities. These findings provide critical insights for informing SSA trust fund projections and policy decisions. |
| JEL: | I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33465 |
| By: | Borgbjerg, Anne Katrine (Aarhus University); Agerbo, Esben (Aarhus University); Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Halliday, Timothy J. (University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | We analyze administrative and genetic data from over 200, 000 Danes to study the effects of genetic risk for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) on labor market outcomes. Higher AD genetic risk increases dementia diagnoses and GP visits for both genders. Among women aged 45–65, it reduces labor participation and raises disability pension uptake, especially near retirement. These effects weaken for women with high polygenic scores for education. For men, AD genetic risk shows no employment impact. These gender differences align with evidence that AD genetic markers are more predictive in women. |
| Keywords: | Alzheimer's Disease, labor supply, genoeconomics |
| JEL: | I14 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17714 |
| By: | De Waegenaere, Anja M.B. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:433c35ed-34f7-4fee-9435-40a7b64cdb48 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew |
| Abstract: | The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modelled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change – enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas. Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 years of environmental migration in the US to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible RCP-SSP scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6M - 28M [5.7M - 53M] – 5.3 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4M - 10M). We also project a significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases – up to 10+ years older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards. |
| Date: | 2023–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:24tjr_v1 |
| By: | Alberts, Sweedal; Nadarajah, Abinaya; Cooper, Claudia; Brijnath, Bianca; Loganathan, Santosh; Varghese, Matthew; Antoniades, Josefine; Baruah, Upasana; Dow, Briony; Kent, Mike |
| Abstract: | Objectives: In India, globalisation is purported to have contributed to shifting family structures and changing attitudes to long-term care (LTC) facility use. We investigated the usage frequency and attitudes to LTC in India. Methods: We conducted secondary analyses of: (a) The LASI (Longitudinal Ageing Study in India) 2017-18 cross-sectional survey of a randomised probability sample of Indian adults aged 45+ living in private households; and (b) Moving Pictures India Project qualitative interviews with 19 carers for people with dementia and 25 professionals, collected in 2022, exploring attitudes to LTC. Results: Of 73, 396 LASI participants, 40 were considering moving to LTC; 18, 281 had a parent alive, of whom 9 reported that their father, and 16 that their mother, was living in LTC. Whilst rare overall, LTC use and consideration of use were more likely to be in urban areas, in middle-richest income quintiles with higher levels of education, and for those who were more likely to rate their health as good or very good. We identified three themes from qualitative data: 1. LTC as a last resort, describes how LTC could be acceptable if care at home was “impossible” due to the person’s medical condition or unavailability of the family carer, for example if they lived abroad. 2. Social expectations of care at home from family members and paid carers and; 3. Limited availability of LTC facilities in India, especially in rural localities, and the financial barriers to their use. Conclusions: Preference for intergenerational community care, limited availability and societal stigma contribute to low rates of LTC use among Indian families. Future social policies should consider how to plan for greater equity in strengthening care at home, supporting care in the community, and bolstering respite and LTC services when other options are not available. |
| Date: | 2023–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mq5sz_v1 |
| By: | Breen, Casey; Seltzer, Nathan (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | There are striking disparities in longevity across sociodemographic groups in the United States. Yet, can sociodemographic characteristics meaningfully explain individual-level variation in longevity? Here, we leverage machine-learning algorithms and large-scale administrative data to predict individual-level mortality using an array of social, economic, and demographic predictors measured in early adulthood. We conduct two distinct analyses: a cohort analysis, which predicts the exact age of death for individuals in the same birth cohort, and a period analysis, which predicts whether individuals age 54–95 will die within the next 10 years. We are not able to make accurate predictions in either our cohort analysis (R2= 0.014) or our period analysis (R2= 0.166).Together, these analyses demonstrate that later life longevity is unpredictable using sociodemographic characteristics alone, and underscore the crucial need to account for stochastic processes in demographic theory |
| Date: | 2023–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:znsqg_v1 |
| By: | Zak, Nikolay; Gibbs, Philip |
| Abstract: | Madame Calment’s extraordinary longevity claim has significantly influenced current estimates of human lifespan. However, recent evidence raises doubts about the authenticity of her record. We compare two competing hypotheses: the base scenario, which assumes that Jeanne’s daughter Yvonne died in 1934, and the switch scenario, which proposes that Yvonne assumed her mother’s identity in 1933. Our analysis suggests that the available evidence supports the switch scenario and contradicts the previously accepted base scenario. This study emphasizes the need to re-evaluate the evidence and highlights the importance of DNA testing (subject to approval by the French authorities). The case of Jeanne Calment was considered the gold standard for age validation. Our research shows that documentation is not always sufficient to verify cases of exceptional longevity. This has important implications for our understanding of the upper limits of human lifespan and demographic patterns in extreme ages. |
| Date: | 2023–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jgmsc_v1 |
| By: | Breen, Casey |
| Abstract: | Owning a home has long been touted as a key component of the idealized "American Dream." Homeownership is associated with greater wealth and better health, but the causal impact of homeownership on health remains unclear. Using linked complete-count census and Social Security mortality records, we document Black-White disparities in homeownership rates and produce the first U.S.-based estimates of the association between homeownership in early adulthood and longevity. We then use a sibling-based identification strategy to estimate the causal effect of homeownership on longevity for cohorts born in the first two decades of the 20th century. Our results indicate homeownership has a significant positive impact on longevity, which we estimate at approximately 4 months. |
| Date: | 2023–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7ya3f_v1 |
| By: | Graziani, Rebecca; NIGRI, ANDREA |
| Abstract: | Though pivotal in longevity studies, multi-outcome modelling is largely neglected in the associated statistical literature. Here, we focus on the case of compositional data, especially relevant in longevity analysis, where overall mortality can be described as the composition of several causes of death. We propose an age–period–cohort model within the Dirichlet framework with a specific interest in its use for modelling longevity with multiple causes of death. We introduce a flexible approach to incorporating the Dirichlet distribution into the age–period– cohort framework. Then, using US cause-specific mortality data, we provide a comprehensive discussion and comparison of alternative modelling approaches. |
| Date: | 2023–11–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:856yw_v1 |
| By: | Ilmakunnas, Pekka |
| Abstract: | The age-innovation relationship is studied at the firm level, using ten waves of Finnish innovation surveys linked to register data on firms and their employees. A negative age-innovation relationship exists for a wide range of average employee ages. This is robust to using employee age group shares instead of average age, using fixed effects and continuous treatment effects estimation, and using six different measures of innovative behavior. Employee age diversity is, however, not related to innovativeness. |
| Keywords: | innovation, aging, age diversity, R&D |
| JEL: | J11 J21 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123630 |
| By: | Gibbs, Philip; Zak, Nikolay |
| Abstract: | Background: The ages of the oldest humans are important data for scientific studies in gerontology, medicine and demographics. Scientists often reference specific cases such as Jeanne Calment, or resources such as the International Database on Longevity. However, numerous inherent dangers and pitfalls have dogged the history of human longevity record keeping. Many people who were believed to be the oldest person in their day turned out to be younger than claimed. This could affect scientific conclusions based on their assumed longevity. In this work we review longevity validations at the top of the official lists of the world’s oldest ever men and women. We aim to outline a stronger “cast-iron” standard for the purposes of future scientific studies of extreme longevity. Results: To inform the higher standard, we have examined individual cases of validation, including those that have been withdrawn or disputed. We highlight their weaknesses and show how deeper investigation could help validate similar claims in the future. We also consider the use of DNA testing to verify the identity of supercentenarians. A self-use questionnaire is offered to validators to help further improve consistency and completeness of their reporting. In a few cases, such as the lives of Sarah Knauss, Christian Mortensen and Israel Kristal we have found new evidence that improves confidence in their validation, but for others our search casts serious doubt on authenticity, or leaves questions over whether the standard of validation is good enough. Having previously disputed the longevity of Jeanne Calment, we now add Nabi Tajima from Japan and Johnson Parks from the U.S. to those who should be invalidated, and we question whether birth records for Japanese supercentenarians can be considered reliable. We also challenge the validation of several U.S cases which were based on unreliable census data in the SSA Kestenbaum study. Conclusions: Correct assessment of the chronological age is a necessary step for biologists studying the determinants of exceptional longevity. We hope that our findings could be used to improve the quality of age validations. They may also influence demographers' conclusions about the future of life expectancy |
| Date: | 2023–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hk7fb_v1 |
| By: | Rojas Mendez, Ana Maria; Munoz Boudet, Ana Maria; Moscoe, Ellen Elizabeth; Jamison, Julian C; Herl, Carlos Rumiallo |
| Abstract: | Addressing the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases to achieve healthy longevity for an aging population has become central to global health policy goals. New policy tools are needed for effectively and efficiently tackling health and lifestyle behaviors and habits linked to the development of noncommunicable disease risk factors. Behavioral science offers insights into psychological barriers, mental models, biases, and other factors that influence decision making and habit formation. Applying these insights can support current policy efforts toward healthy longevity. This paper develops a framework to clarify the relationships between noncommunicable disease formation, detection, and management and behavioral determinants at the individual, community, and health system levels. Following the framework, the paper documents frequently identified behavioral barriers at the three key stages of patients’ noncommunicable disease trajectories. It identifies policy lessons from the behavioral science literature to address such barriers and, together with other policies, reduce the incidence of noncommunicable diseases and improve treatment effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2023–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10347 |