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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Bruno R. Delalibera; Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira; Rafael Machado Parente |
| Abstract: | In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit. |
| Keywords: | Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/032 |
| By: | Gérard-François Dumont (MÉDIATIONS - Sciences des lieux, sciences des liens - SU - Sorbonne Université) |
| Abstract: | Едно от основните демографски явления на XXI век е остаряването на населе- нието, което е безпрецедентно за целия свят, както и за Франция. Неговото измерване включва разглеждане на две различни концепции: стареене stricto sensu1 и геронто-растеж. Анализът на данните очертава четири различни типа териториално развитие, което сле- дователно, изисква прилагането на различни местни политики. Данните, използвани в този текст, не са съществени, но те помагат да се илюстрира методологията за географски анализ на демографското остаряване2 |
| Abstract: | One of the major demographic phenomena of the 21st century is the aging of the population, which is of an unprecedented nature for the whole of the world and for France. Its measurement implies considering two different concepts, aging stricto sensu and gerontocroissance. The analysis of the data highlights four differentiated types of territorial evolutions, consequently calling for different local policies. The data used in this text are not essential, but they do illustrate the methodology of geographic analysis of population ageing. |
| Keywords: | стареене, геронто-растеж, население, 21-ви век, пенсии, плодовитост, дъл- голетие, възрастните хора, възраст, миграция, миграционни потоци, демографско наслед- ство, възрастова пирамида, Франция, прогноза, география, политика, жилища, здраве, про- изводителност, възрастни хора, солидарност между поколенията., Aging, Gerontocroissance, Population, 21st century, Retreats, Fertility, Longevity, the elderly, Age, Migrations, migration, Demographic inheritance, age structure, La France, Prospective, Geography, Policy, Housing, Health, productivity, Seniors, intergenerational, solidarity |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04694805 |
| By: | Sara Almeida; Hanna Berkel; Sam Jones; Patricia Justino; Telça Massingue; Hilário Muchabel |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the contribution of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico , to building resilience against shocks. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity approach to bespoke survey data, we separate direct effects of programme transfers from anticipation effects related to becoming programme-eligible. Our results show that while eligibility is associated with adopting more positive coping strategies, the impact of transfers is mixed. |
| Keywords: | Social protection, Pensions, Mozambique, Old age |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-90 |
| By: | Rodrigo Barrela; Mr. Pragyan Deb; Gloria Li; Carlo Pizzinelli |
| Abstract: | Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work. |
| Keywords: | Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/030 |
| By: | Yu, Chen |
| Abstract: | As the global population ages, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies holds significant promise in addressing the multifaceted challenges and opportunities presented by aging societies. This article explores the potential impact of AI in healthcare, the economy, social integration, and ethical considerations within the context of an aging population. By examining the role of AI in extending quality of life, promoting independence, and fostering inclusive policies, this study elucidates the ways in which AI can serve as a boon to aging societies. Through international collaboration and innovation, AI has the potential to revolutionize the landscape of aging, offering tailored solutions that enhance the well-being and social inclusion of older adults worldwide. |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:a8suh_v1 |
| By: | Carine Milcent (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Background: Assessing frailty from middle age onward offers valuable insights into predicting healthcare expenditures throughout the life cycle. Objectives: This paper examines the use of physical frailty as an indicator of healthcare demand across all age groups. The originality of this work lies in extending the analysis of frailty indicators beyond the typical focus on individuals under 50 years old to include those in mid-life and older. Methods: For this study, we used a database where frailty was measured in 2012 in a sample of individuals aged 15 to over 90. These individuals were tracked for their healthcare expenditures from 2012 to 2016. Results: Among the sample of 6928 individuals, frailty in 2012 resulted in a statistically significant increase in costs at the 5% level for the population aged 15 to 65. We applied multilevel linear regression models with year fixed effects, controlling for demographic factors, education level, precarity, social dimensions, lifestyle factors (e.g., vegetable consumption), physical activity, emotional well-being, and medical history. A Hausman test was conducted to validate the model choice. For mortality rate analysis, Cox models were used. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that physical frailty provides valuable information for understanding its impact on healthcare expenditure. The effect of frailty on mortality is particularly significant for the elderly population. Moreover, frailty is a predictor of healthcare costs not only in older adults but also across the entire life cycle. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare expenditure, Frailty indicator, Adult life, Mortality |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04784103 |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony Lepinteur (uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg = University of Luxembourg = Universität Luxemburg) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that unemployment leaves scars after re-employment, but does this scarring effect persist even after retirement? We analyse European data on retirees from the SHARE panel, and show that the well-being of the retired continues to reflect the unemployment that they experienced over their working life. These scarring effects are somewhat smaller for older retirees, but larger for those who arguably had higher expectations regarding the labour market when they were active. The lower well-being from lifetime unemployment does not reflect lower retirement income. This long-run scarring for those who have left the labour market underlines that contemporaneous correlations significantly under-estimate the well-being cost of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Retirement, Scarring, Well-Being, SHARE |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04788992 |
| By: | Andrew E Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Rong Zhu (Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | We use nationally representative panel data from Australia to consider the impact of retirement on individual locus of control, a socio-emotional skill that has substantial explanatory power for a broad range of life outcomes. We establish causality via cohort-specific eligibility age for the Australian Age Pension. We show that retirement leads to increased internal locus of control. This greater sense of internal control can explain around one-third and one-fifth of the positive effects of retirement on health and subjective well-being, respectively. The impact of retirement on control beliefs varies along the distribution of locus of control, with the positive influence being most pronounced for men with a relatively high sense of internal control and for women with a relatively high sense of external control. Last, we provide evidence that locus of control is much more malleable at retirement than the other socio-emotional skills of the Big-Five personality traits, risk and time preferences, and trust. |
| Keywords: | Retirement, Locus of control, Socio-emotional skills, Public pensions |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04335808 |
| By: | Martin B. Hackmann; Jörg Heining; Roman Klimke; Maria Polyakova; Holger Seibert |
| Abstract: | We leverage decades of administrative data and quasi-experimental variation in the introduction of universal long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995 to examine whether health insurance expansions can stimulate local economies. We find that the LTC insurance rollout led not only to sizeable growth of the target LTC sector, but also to an aggregate fall in unemployment and an increase in the labor force participation. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage point increase in the share of insured LTC patients led to 4 more nursing home workers per 1, 000 individuals age 65 and older (12% increase). Wages did not rise in the LTC sector or other sectors of the economy. The quality of newly hired nursing home workers declined, but this had no negative effect on old-age life expectancy. Overall, the insurance expansion brought lower-skilled workers into new jobs rather than reallocating workers away from other productive sectors. Our marginal value of public funds (MVPF) analysis suggests that the reform paid for itself when taking the positive fiscal externalities in the labor market into account. To understand which market primitives underpin our findings and to inform the external validity of our results, we develop and estimate a general model of labor markets with product-market subsidies in the presence of wedges, such as income taxes. Our model simulations show that the aggregate welfare effects of insurance expansions are theoretically ambiguous and depend centrally on the magnitude of frictions in input markets. |
| JEL: | D58 H0 H51 I0 I13 I31 I38 J08 J14 J23 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33429 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina |
| Abstract: | The hidden value of adult informal care (IC) refers to the unaccounted value of informal care in overall costs of long‐term care(LTC) estimates. This paper estimates the net value of adult IC in Europe, drawing on a well‐being‐based methodology. We use an instrumental variable strategy and a longitudinal and cross‐country dataset to estimate the causal effect of the extensive and intensive margin of caregiving on subjective well‐being. We estimate the so‐called compensating surplus (CS), namely the income equivalent transfer, to compensate for the net disutility of caregiving. We show that IC reduces average subjective well‐being by about 1% compared to the mean (6% among co‐residential caregivers). Relative to a country's Gross Domestic Product(GDP), the value of IC ranges between 4.2% in France and 0.85% in Germany. Such relative value declines as the country's share of formal LTC spending increases. These results call for a reconsideration of the existing classifications of LTC regimes. We estimate that the average CS per hour for IC is 9.55€, with a range from 22€ per hour in Switzerland to 5€ per hour in Spain.Additionally, we estimate that the long‐term CS (estimated using an individual’s permanent income) tends to be lower than short‐term CS (estimated using an individual’s current income). |
| Keywords: | caregiving; compensating surplus; daughters; informal care; life satisfaction; the value of time; wellbeing method |
| JEL: | I18 J17 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126347 |
| By: | Erica Ordali; Chiara Rapallini |
| Abstract: | Decades of research have assumed the stability of risk preferences across domains and ages. However, recent evidence has shown that it might not be the case since variations in the level of risks taken are, in fact, observable. Economics and Psychology literature investigated such issues, providing mixed evidence regarding age changes. This paper provides the first exhaustive meta-analytical review of the economic and psychology literature results regarding the association between aging and financial risk attitudes. We find differences in the effect mainly due to the methods used for measuring risk preferences. In particular, we find that the positive association between risk aversion and age is verified for survey data and lotteries, while psychological tasks underline the role played by the learning process and, ultimately, that cognitive abilities and health status may affect preferences. The meta-regression on effect sizes derived from studies based on surveys shows that cognitive abilities and healthstatus explain a significant part of the heterogeneity of this sample of studies. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, financial risk-taking, meta-analysis, survey data, lottery, task |
| JEL: | J1 D91 D81 D01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2024_27.rdf |
| By: | M.D.J.W. Wijesinghe (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Susan Olivia (University of Waikato); Les Oxley (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to provide a comparative analysis of the impacts of three significant pandemics - the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and the COVID-19 pandemic - on life expectancy and lifespan inequality. Using cause-eliminated life tables and the Theil Index, we examine changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality globally. The findings reveal that each pandemic uniquely altered demographic patterns. The 1918 influenza pandemic caused the sharpest immediate reductions in life expectancy, particularly affecting young adults, and led to a significant rise in lifespan inequality. In contrast, the HIV/AIDS epidemic had a more gradual and enduring impact, disproportionately affecting young and middle-aged adults in its early stages and exacerbating health disparities, especially in regions with limited access to antiretroviral therapy. COVID-19 primarily impacted older populations, resulting in smaller reductions in life expectancy compared to the 1918 influenza but with a distinctive decrease in lifespan inequality due to concentrated mortality among older adults. Furthermore, gender-specific effects varied across the pandemics. While the 1918 influenza pandemic and COVID-19 showed relatively uniform impacts across genders, HIV/AIDS revealed pronounced disparities, with women experiencing greater reductions in life expectancy and heightened lifespan inequality. By examining the unique mortality patterns and impacts of these pandemics, this study provides valuable insights to policymakers, emphasizing the need for tailored public health strategies to address inequalities and improve resilience in future global health crises. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy; Lifespan Inequality; 1918 Influenza; HIV/AIDS; COVID-19; Pandemics |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:25/02 |