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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Yang, Tianli (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | The Chinese government announced the pilot of public long-term care insurance (LTCI) policy in 2016. While most studies focus on LTCI's effects on labor supply and retirement behavior, its effect on retirement intentions, which offer certain advantages over actual behavior, remains unclear. This study applies the difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of LTCI on urban workers' retirement intentions based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. The results indicate that LTCI significantly increases the probability of intentions to delay retirement and intended retirement age, especially for the LTCI providing both service and cash benefits. Moreover, the effects are larger and more significant among subgroups, including women, self-employed workers and workers' family members with LTCI eligibility, as these sub-samples are more likely to be caregivers and caregivers' effect is larger. Mechanism analysis reveals that LTCI reduces time support within the family and improves mental health, both of which contribute to delayed retirement intentions. The negative effect of mitigating precautionary saving motives caused by LTCI also exists but subtler. Overall, these empirical evidences support that LTCI helps shape workers' retirement intentions. |
| Keywords: | long-term care insurance, retirement intentions, difference-in-differences, China |
| JEL: | H55 I28 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17642 |
| By: | Do Won Kwak; Jong-Wha Lee |
| Abstract: | Increasing life expectancy poses significant challenges to the employment and quality of life of older adults. This study examines the impact of retirement and re-employment on the health of older adults in Korea, utilizing longitudinal data from 2008 to 2020. We employ the instrumental variables method to estimate causal effects by leveraging variations in pension eligibility age and benefit amounts. The results reveal that retirement leads to a significant deterioration in health outcomes, including self-rated health, chronic diseases, and depression among older individuals. Conversely, re-employment after retirement is associated with a notable improvement in overall health. We find that retirement and re-employment influenced retirees’ health by changing their engagement in physical and social activities. These results suggest that policies encouraging late retirement or facilitating new employment opportunities and social activities post-retirement may mitigate or delay adverse health outcomes among older adults. |
| Keywords: | aging, depression, health, retirement, re-employment |
| JEL: | I12 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-08 |
| By: | Mostafa R. Sarkandiz |
| Abstract: | The present study attempts to investigate the demographic dividend phenomenon in China. For this goal, a socio-economic approach has been used to analyze the topic from 1995 to 2019. In contrast to common belief, the outcomes revealed that China is still benefiting from a demographic dividend. However, due to the accelerated population aging trend and the increasing share of government expenditure on the public pension system, the window opportunity has yet to close. Furthermore, concerning the absolute value of estimated coefficients, the employment rate of young people in the age bundle of [15, 24] has the highest impact on decreasing government expenditure. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.12144 |
| By: | Katz, Adrian (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Comparing Australia and New Zealand can provide useful lessons in many areas, and retirement income policy is no different. Since 1992, Australia has operated a compulsory savings scheme along with a means-tested government-funded pension to address pensioner poverty. In contrast, New Zealand's system consists of NZ Super – a universal public pension – and KiwiSaver – a voluntary savings scheme introduced in 2007. In our latest Public Good working paper, supported by Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission, we compare the two systems and assess them against five key criteria. While both systems have their strengths and weaknesses, the comparison offers important lessons for New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | retirement schemes; pensions; New Zealand; Australia |
| JEL: | D10 |
| Date: | 2024–11–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nzierw:2024_001 |
| By: | Saroja Adhikari (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Grandparents are an integral part of family support systems, serving as both providers and consumers of instrumental, financial, and emotional care. They also play a central role in transmitting cultural and financial capital to their grandchildren. Grandparenting, which refers to the care, support, and engagement grandparents provide to their grandchildren, is a socially expected phenomenon in South Asia. Grandparents are often expected to play active caregiving roles and typically co-reside with their grandchildren. While previous research has explored grandparenting across various socioeconomic groups, little is known about how evolving sociodemographic trends might impact grandparenthood in the future. Using data from the United Nations and the Wittgenstein Center for Global Human Capital, we explore how national-level sociodemographic changes are expected to affect the number of living grandparents per grandchild, as well as the age, sex, and educational profiles of grandparents across South Asia. We project that grandparental availability will increase, with grandparents becoming older and better educated. Specifically, the average age of grandparents in South Asia is expected to rise by six to eight years from 2024 to 2100, and the number with post-secondary education will increase significantly. These shifts are likely to affect the balance of care exchanged between generations, with potential benefits and challenges for grandparents, parents, and grandchildren. |
| Keywords: | Asia, ageing, child care, demographic transition, education |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-003 |
| By: | Lucie Schmidt; Lara Shore-Sheppard; Tara Watson |
| Abstract: | Though Social Security is typically considered a program to support retirees, nearly one in ten children live in a home with Social Security income. Children are substantially more likely to live with an older adult than they were two decades ago, and they are twice as likely to report Social Security income in their household as traditional cash welfare. We use the sharp increase in eligibility for Social Security benefits at age 62 to investigate the role played by the Social Security program in childhood economic resources among children who live with their grandparents. We do not find that Social Security eligibility increases household income on average, but it is associated with a shift towards Social Security income and reductions in deep poverty. We also see increased availability of household members’ time for home production. |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33381 |
| By: | Mathilde Esposito (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | In the literature on secular stagnation, demographic aging is widely blamed for lowering the IS curve of aggregate demand and therefore the natural interest rate. However, very little is said about the impact of workforce aging on long-term aggregate supply, or so-called potential GDP. To fill this gap, this study delves into the effects of workforce aging on two key components of the remarkably sluggish potential GDP growth of developed countries: hours worked and labour productivity. First, using a novel macro-accounting decomposition of EU-KLEMS data, we find that old-labour input has the highest contribution to growth, through both increased hours worked and shifts in labour composition in the EU, US and Japan. Second, we use panel stochastic frontier models highlighting that, however, old workers have an adverse effect on labour productivity growth frontier—though increasing technical efficiency, i.e., reducing the distance to this frontier. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Aging; Potential Growth; Labour Input; Stochastic Frontier Analysis; Labour Productivity and EU-KLEMS |
| JEL: | J11 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2425 |
| By: | CURTALE Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); STUT Martijn (European Commission - JRC); ALESSANDRINI Alfredo; DEUSTER Christoph (European Commission - JRC); BATISTA E SILVA Filipe (European Commission - JRC); NATALE Fabrizio (European Commission - JRC); DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The European Union is experiencing profound demographic shifts. This paper presents an analysis of observed population trends encompassing observations for the period 2000-2022 and projections until 2040 at the NUTS3 level. The projections were obtained by regionalizing the 2021 Ageing Report’s demographic projections using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model, which considers explicitly the interlinkages between demographic and economic dynamics. Results show that urban regions are expected to increase their populations primarily due to economic opportunities pulling migrants, while intermediate and rural regions are projected to face population decline, with remote rural regions being the most affected. The natural change rate is trending downwards across all regional typologies, while the net migration rate, historically positive in all typologies, is projected to compensate for the natural change only in urban regions. The implications of these demographic changes are far-reaching, affecting labour markets, public service provision, and economic growth. The paper discusses the potential for regional convergence in GDP per capita, particularly in rural regions close to cities, and the challenges posed by changes in the demographic structure, affected by increasing old age dependency ratio and a shrinking working-age population, and the need for adaptation. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202501 |
| By: | Gilles Dufrénot (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Mathilde Esposito (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Eva Moreno-Galbis (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate and population contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called "fifth stage"). This paper seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We test two key mechanisms that have been at play since the mid-2000s: i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. According to Autor and Dorn’s (2013) model, this should promote the concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, and aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality. |
| Keywords: | emographic transition, productivity, technological change, economic structure, Japan. |
| JEL: | J11 J14 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2426 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | In the presence of segregation and discrimination during the late 19th and early 20th century, many African American men changed their racial identity and “passed” for white. Previous studies have suggested that this activity was associated with increases in income and socioeconomic status despite the costs associated with cutting ties with their black communities. This study adds to this literature by evaluating the long-run effects of passing on old-age longevity. We construct longitudinal data of black families in historical censuses (1880-1940) linked to their male children’s Social Security Administration death records (1975-2005). We use family fixed effects to demonstrate that individuals passing as white live approximately 9.4 months longer, on average, than their non-passing siblings. Additional analyses suggest substantial improvements in education and occupational standing scores as well as differential parental investments as potential pathways. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 J1 J15 N0 N32 N33 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33394 |