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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Elena Capatina; Gary Hansen; Minchung Hsu |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the impact of long term care (LTC) risk on single and married households and studies the roles played by informal care (IC), consumption sharing within households, and Medicaid in insuring this risk. We develop a life-cycle model where individuals face survival and health risk, including the possibility of becoming highly disabled and needing LTC. Households are heterogeneous in various important dimensions including education, productivity, and the age difference between spouses. Health evolves stochastically. Agents make consumption-savings decisions in a framework featuring an LTC statedependent utility function. We find that household expenditures increase significantly when LTC becomes necessary, but married individuals are well insured against LTC risk due to IC. However, they still hold considerable assets due to the concern for the spouse who might become a widow/widower and can expect much higher LTC costs. IC significantly reduces precautionary savings for middle and high income groups, but interestingly, it encourages asset accumulation among low income groups because it reduces the probability of meanstested Medicaid LTC. |
| Keywords: | Long Term Care, Household Risk, Precautionary Savings, Medicaid |
| JEL: | D91 E21 H31 I10 I38 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2024-697&r= |
| By: | Brandl, Sebastian (HdBA); Engin-Stock, Tülin (Umfragezentrum Bonn - Gesellschaft für empirische Sozialforschung und Evaluation); Leber, Ute (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Matuschek, Ingo (HdBA); Mayerböck, Astrid (Umfragezentrum Bonn - Gesellschaft für empirische Sozialforschung und Evaluation) |
| Abstract: | "The employment rate of older workers in Germany has increased significantly in recent years. This is due to the rising labor force participation of older people and the increase in the retirement age since 2012. There has also been an increase in employment after retirement. What may be an economic necessity for employees or a desired extension of their active working phase is an important means for companies to secure their need for skilled workers. At the same time, however, employing older workers also poses specific challenges for companies, which need to be addressed with an age- and ageing-specific HR policy. In 2016, the BA University of Applied Sciences (HdBA) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) conducted an online survey of small and medium-sized companies in the chemical industry (as an exemple for the manufacturing industry in Germany) to examine the opportunities and risks of demographic change for companies and their HR policy towards older employees. At that time, the findings indicated that the companies‘ focus was more on individual problems than on a systematic age management. In order to investigate how companies are facing up to the ongoing challenges of demographic change and the shortage of skilled workers and what HR policy measures they are using to meet these challenges, another online survey was conducted in 2022. This survey also focused on the specific situation of older employees during the Corona crisis. As with the 2016 industry survey, the survey was conducted by the Umfragezentrum Bonn (uzbonn) on behalf of the HdBA. As the results of our survey show, the trend of increasing labor force participation of older people has continued - despite the Corona crisis. Older people were not affected by Corona-related job cuts to an above-average extent. While the companies' hiring activities declined during the Corona-crisis, the proportion of older employees increased. The proportion of older employees in the chemical industry is particularly high in medium-sized and long-existing companies - especially in the area of production. However, the survey also indicates that specific measures for the employment of older workers still often appear to be the result of individual solutions and not of company-supported, systematic approaches. Nevertheless, the demographic trend seems to increase the pressure on companies to take action: For example, the use of some measures to maintain the employability of older employees has increased significantly compared to the 2016 sector survey. In particular, there has been a significant increase in offers to remain employed by the company after retirement. In addition, further training for (older) employees is becoming increasingly important against the background of technological change. It is noticeable that companies rarely focus on specific further training measures for older employees, but rather organize their further training activities independently of the age of the employees. With regard to the company's assessment of the benefits of individual personnel measures, our findings indicate that the necessity of transferring experience to (younger) employees is more important than the potential preservation of older employees' employability. Personnel measures such as making working hours more flexible or designing age-appropriate workplaces, which focus on promoting the retention of older employees, play a rather subordinate role for the companies. In contrast, the respondents ascribe comparatively great importance to measures such as mixed-age working groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202411&r= |
| By: | Christian Schmieder; Patrick A Imam |
| Abstract: | We analyze how aging populations in might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks. |
| Keywords: | aging, demographics, bank risk-taking, financial stability |
| JEL: | G21 J11 G01 G28 G32 B26 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1193&r= |
| By: | Ariadna García-Prado (Universidad Pública de Navarra); Paula González (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | A growing literature shows that confinement policies used by governments to slow COVID-19 transmission have negative impacts on mental health, but the differential effects of individual policies on mental health remain poorly understood. We used data from the COVID-19 questionnaire of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which focuses on populations aged 50 and older, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 28 countries to estimate the effects of eight different confinement policies on three outcomes of mental health: insomnia, anxiety and depression. We applied robust machine learning methods to estimate the effects of interest. Our results indicate that closure of schools and public transportation, restrictions on domestic and international travel, and gathering restrictions did not worsen the mental health of older populations in Europe. In contrast, stay at home policies and workplace closures aggravated the three health outcomes analyzed. Based on these findings, we close with a discussion of which policies should be implemented, intensified, or relaxed to control the spread of the virus without compromising the mental health of older populations. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, mental health, confinement policies, older populations, Europe, robust machine learning methods. |
| JEL: | I18 I31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:24.03&r= |
| By: | Wanissa Suanin; Panit Wattanakoon |
| Abstract: | The global demographic shift to an ageing society poses challenges for the international food trade. People in different age groups have different dietary preferences, nutritional needs, and income levels, which influence consumer preference and purchasing power. This study examines the impact of global demographic shifts towards silver economies on international food imports using structural gravity analysis. The findings suggest that silver economies will shift consumer preferences to import healthier food, resulting in increased income elasticity of demand for these imports. The primary target markets for healthy food trade are developed countries, particularly Japan, the EU, and the US, where income elasticity is high and remains near or greater than one. Although consumers in developing countries may not prefer healthy foods, their income elasticity for healthy food imports will rise as the elderly population grows. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 J10 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2024-5&r= |
| By: | Giulio Fella; Martin B. Holm; Thomas Michael Pugh |
| Abstract: | We use administrative data for Norway to estimate an incomplete-market life cycle model of retired singles and couples with a bequest motive, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. We allow the parameters of the bequest utility to differ between households with and without offspring. Our estimates imply a very strong utility of residual wealth (bequest motive), in line with the estimates by Lockwood (2018). The bequest motive accounts for approximately three-quarters of aggregate wealth at age 85. More surprisingly, we estimate similar utility of residual wealth for households with and without offspring. that the utility of residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive. |
| Keywords: | Economic models; Fiscal policy; Housing; Labour markets |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D14 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-21&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Jimenez-Martin, Sergi; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina |
| Abstract: | We study whether caregiving and intergenerational transfer decisions are sensitive to changes in economic incentives following the inception of a new unconditional and universal system of allowances and supports, after the introduction of the 2006 Promotion of Personal Autonomy and Care for Dependent Persons Act (SAAD in Spanish), and the ensuing effects of its austerity cuts after 2012. We find that whilst the introduction of a caregiving allowance (of a maximum value of €530 in 2011) increased the supply of informal caregiving by 20-22 percentual points (pp), the inception of a companion system of publicly subsidised homecare supports did not modify the supply of care. Consistent with an exchange motive for intergenerational transfers, we estimate an average 17 pp (8.2-8.7pp) increase (decrease) in downstream (upstream) transfers among those receiving caregiving allowances. Our estimates resulting from the reduction in the allowances and supports after the austerity cuts in 2012 are consistent with our main estimates, and suggest stronguer effects among lower-income families. |
| Keywords: | caregiving; intergenerational transfers; unconditional transfer; long-term care; family transfers; exchange motivation; allowances; Spain; Exchange motives |
| JEL: | G22 I18 D14 |
| Date: | 2022–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115185&r= |