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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Riley Sullivan |
| Abstract: | The number of nursing homes in New England has declined steadily over the last decade, while the region’s population has grown older. This report looks at why nursing homes are closing—why they’re losing money—and how the closures, combined with the aging of the population, could affect the region’s infrastructure for long-term care. It also considers the closures’ potential impact on the region’s labor markets. |
| Keywords: | New England; Medicaid; labor markets |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbrb:98232&r= |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer (Yale University); Yin, Xuecheng (Oklahoma State University); Levy, Becca R. (Yale University); Yuan, Yue (Lehigh University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Cognitive impairment poses considerable challenges among older adults, with the protective role of family support becoming increasingly crucial. This study examines the role of children's residential proximity and spousal presence with dementia risk in cognitively impaired older adults. We analyzed 14, 600 individuals aged 50 and older with cognitive impairment from the Health and Retirement Study (1995-2018). Family support was categorized by spousal presence and children's residential proximity. Modifiable risk factors, including smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation, were assessed. Mixed-effects models were estimated. A significant proportion of older adults with cognitive impairment lacked access to family support, with either no spouse (46.9%) or all children living over 10 miles away (25.3%). Those with less available family support, characterized by distant-residing children and the absence of a spouse, had a significantly higher percentage of smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Moreover, we revealed a consistent gradient in the percentage of the risk factors by the degree of family support. Relative to older adults with a spouse and co-resident children, those without a spouse and with all children residing further than 10 miles displayed the highest percentage of the risk factors. These findings were robust to various sensitivity analyses. |
| Keywords: | dementia, depression, social isolation, smoking, long-term care, family support, residential proximity |
| JEL: | I12 J14 I18 I11 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16997&r= |
| By: | Borsenberger, Claire (Groupe La Poste); Cremer, Helmuth (Toulouse School of Economics); Joram, Denis (Groupe La Poste); Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie (Toulouse School of Economics); Malavolti, Estelle (University of Toulouse I) |
| Abstract: | We study the design of optimal (private and/or social) insurance schemes for formal home care and institutional care. We consider a three period model. Individuals are either in good health, lightly dependent or heavily dependent. Lightly dependent individuals can buy formal home care which reduces the severity of dependency and reduces the probability to become severely dependent in the next period. Severely dependent individuals pay for nursing home care. In both states of dependency individuals can receive a (private or public) insurance benefit (transfers). These benefits can be flat or depend on the formal care consumed (or a combination of the two). These benefits are financed by a premium (or a tax). Individuals may be alive until the end of period 2 or die at the beginning of periods 1 or 2 with a certain probability which may depend on their state of health. The laissez faire is inefficient because individuals consume a too low level of formal home care and are not insured. The first-best insurances scheme requires a transfer to lightly dependent individuals that, (under some conditions) increases with the amount of formal home care consumed. Severely dependent individuals, on the other hand, must receive a flat transfer (from private or social insurance). The theoretical analysis is illustrated by a calibrated numerical example which show that the expressions have the expected signs under plausible conditions. |
| Keywords: | long-term care insurance, formal home care, nursing home care |
| JEL: | I13 I18 H51 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16978&r= |
| By: | Yi Jiang; Shohei Shimizu |
| Abstract: | By employing causal discovery method, the Fast Causal Inference (FCI) model to analyze data from the 2022 "Financial Literacy Survey, " we explore the causal relationships between financial literacy and financial activities, specifically investment participation and retirement planning. Our findings indicate that increasing financial literacy may not directly boost engagement in financial investments or retirement planning in Japan, which underscores the necessity for alternative strategies to motivate financial activities among Japanese households. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers focused on improving financial well-being by advancing the use of causal discovery algorithms in understanding financial behaviors. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01078&r= |
| By: | BAI Yuting; MARUYAMA Shiko; WANG Si |
| Abstract: | Late-life cognition is a growing concern as populations age. This study investigates how the number of children affects late-life cognition in rural China by exploiting the exogenous variation in the rollout timing of Family Planning Policies. Theoretical analysis suggests a nonlinear effect along the fertility dimension. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we find nonlinear causal effects of fertility. Having one more child when the mother has 4+ children leads to adverse effects on a range of late-life cognition measures, while positive effects exist for episodic memory and mental intactness at low parities, implying hump-shaped effect heterogeneity. Underlying this hump-shaped causal relationship is increased interaction with children but a greater risk of chronic conditions. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24056&r= |
| By: | Felix Aidala; Gizem Koşar; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | One of the most striking features of the labor market recovery following the pandemic recession has been the surge in quits from 2021 to mid-2023. This surge, often referred to as the Great Resignation, or the Great Reshuffle, was uncommonly large for an economic expansion. In this post, we call attention to a related labor market change that has not been previously highlighted—a persistent change in retirement expectations, with workers reporting much lower expectations of working full-time beyond ages 62 and 67. This decline is particularly notable for female workers and lower-income workers. |
| Keywords: | retirement; expectations; pandemic; recession |
| JEL: | J26 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98211&r= |
| By: | Homonenko, Vladyslava; Suprun, Ivan; Platonovska, Vladyslava |
| Abstract: | This research paper explores the determinants of countries' innovation levels as measured by the Global Innovation Index, focusing on the essential factors that strengthen a country's innovative capabilities. Through a comprehensive cross-country regression analysis, the findings highlight the role of GDP per capita, Median age and the Share of the population aged 25-49 as significant factors of innovation. Contrary to our initial hypotheses, the analysis demonstrates that other variables such as the democracy level, birth rate, net migration, and life expectancy, initially provided in our model, do not significantly influence the innovation process. This indicates that economic prosperity, a youthful age profile, and a significant part of the population within their most productive years are crucial in enhancing a nation's innovation. The results are particularly significant for Ukraine, emphasizing the need to enhance technological progress in its post-war recovery efforts. This study confirms the importance of a relatively young population and stable economic health in fostering technological progress, providing guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance innovation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Global Innovation Index, Technological progress, Age distribution, Economic health. |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120909&r= |
| By: | Grömling, Michael; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt ist seit dem Jahr 2005 auf Wachstumskurs. Eine Ausnahme bildet die Corona-Delle zwischen 2020 und 2022. Schon im Jahr 2023 erreichte der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt die neue Rekordmarke von fast 46 Millionen Erwerbstätigen. Bemerkenswert ist, dass im Jahr 2023 erstmals seit der Wiedervereinigung in einer Rezession das inländische Arbeitsvolumen gewachsen ist. Üblicherweise wurden hierzulande die konjunkturellen Anpassungslasten am Arbeitsmarkt über eine Arbeitszeitanpassung bewältigt. Die IW-Konjunkturumfrage im Frühjahr 2024 ergab für das laufende Jahr keine Erholung der wirtschaftlichen Lage (Grömling, 2024). In dieser IW-Konjunkturumfrage wurde die Relevanz von zehn unterschiedlichen angebots-, nachfrage- und arbeitsmarktseitigen Determinanten für die betriebliche Personalplanung erfragt. Die Zusatzfrage im Rahmen der IW-Konjunkturumfrage offenbart, dass die Arbeitskostenentwicklung und der Fachkräftemangel die relevanten Determinanten für die betriebliche Personalplanung sind. Unabhängig von der Betriebsgröße, der Branche und der Region der befragten Betriebe spielten hingegen angebots- und nachfrageseitige Determinanten eine untergeordnete Rolle. Arbeitsmarktpolitische Reformen sind gefragt, um dem Fachkräftemangel in Deutschland entgegenzuwirken und die Lohnkostenentwicklung zu verlangsamen. "Mehr arbeiten" muss das Motto des laufenden Jahrzehnts sein. Es muss hierzulande einfacher und gleichzeitig deutlich attraktiver werden, mehr zu arbeiten. Ohne diese Reformen ist der Übergang der Baby-Boomer ins Rentenalter entscheidend dafür verantwortlich, dass sich der Fachkräftemangel verschärft und sich die Arbeitskosten weiter erhöhen. In Deutschland werden bisher große Potenziale zur Stabilisierung des Arbeitsvolumens im demografischen Wandel verschenkt. Es braucht mehr Anreize für ein längeres Erwerbsleben, für eine höhere Wochenarbeitszeit von Zweitverdienern sowie für mehr qualifizierte Erwerbsmigration. |
| Abstract: | The German labor market has been growing since 2005. The dip in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic between 2020 and 2022 is an exception, as the German labor market has reached a record level of 45.9 million people in employment by 2023. It is worth noting that in 2023, for the first time since reunification, the volume of hours worked has increased during a recession. In Germany, economic adjustments on the labor market have generally been dealt with by adjusting working hours. The IW economic survey in spring 2024 did not indicate a recovery in the economic situation for the current year (Grömling, 2024). In this IW economic survey, the relevance of ten different supply-, demand- and labor market-determinants for establishments' workforce planning was surveyed. The most recent additional question in the IW economic survey shows that the development of labor costs and the shortage of skilled labor are the relevant determinants for establishments' workforce planning. Regardless of the establishment size, sector and region, supply- and demand-side determinants play a subordinate role. Labor market reforms are required to dampen the shortage of skilled labor and slow down the evolution of labor cost. "Working more" is the slogan of our time. It should become easier and at the same time much more attractive to work additional hours. Without these reforms, the transition of the baby boomers into retirement will be a decisive factor in the rise of labor costs and further shortage of skilled labor. In Germany, potential for stabilizing the volume of hours worked in the face of demographic change has so far been wasted. More incentives for a longer working life, for higher weekly working hours, for second earners and for more qualified labor migration are required. |
| Keywords: | Konjunktur, Beschäftigung, Unternehmensbefragung |
| JEL: | C82 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:295735&r= |
| By: | Didier Blanchet (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
| Abstract: | Les projections de l'équilibre financier du système de retraite font face à deux sources d'incertitude : sur la soutenabilité de certaines de ses ressources d'une part, sur l'évolution de ses dépenses d'autre part. Pour ce qui est des dépenses, une source majeure d'aléa découle de leur sensibilité aux hypothèses de croissance de la productivité. Dans un système où prédomine l'indexation des barèmes sur les prix, le niveau relatif des pensions évolue de manière plus favorable aux retraités quand la croissance est lente voire négative, et inversement quand elle est rapide. Ceci vaut à la fois pour des chocs transitoires et, de manière plus durable, face à des inflexions pérennes de la croissance. La pleine réindexation sur les salaires ferait disparaître cette asymétrie, mais elle aurait pour conséquence une forte augmentation des dépenses de retraite. Cette note étudie les options disponibles pour des règles d'indexation combinant neutralisation de la sensibilité à la croissance et objectif de stabilité financière. Il s'agit d'évaluer s'il est possible, dans un régime par annuités, de reproduire le type de règle introduite en 2017 dans le régime complémentaire par points de l'Agirc-Arrco. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-04563096&r= |