nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒05‒06
eight papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Lifetime Survivor Pensions of Daughters of Military Personnel and Educational Choices in Brazil By Daniel Gama e Colombo; Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
  2. Who bears the distance cost of public primary healthcare? Hypertension among the elderly in rural India By Bertrand Lefebvre; Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay; Vastav Ratra
  3. Will AI be a Boon to an Aging Society By Yu, Chen
  4. A Tale of the Tails: The Value of a Statistical Life at the Tails of the Age Distribution By Kniesner, Thomas J.; Viscusi, W. Kip
  5. Predicting Full Retirement Attainment of NBA Players By Giorgos Foutzopoulos; Nikolaos Pandis; Michail Tsagris
  6. The Nature of the Rural-Urban Mortality Gap By Thomas, Kelsey L.; Dobis, Elizabeth A.; McGranahan, David A.
  7. Reassessing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality via distributional similarities By Ana C. Gómez Ugarte Valerio; Ugofilippo Basellini; Carlo G. Camarda; Fanny Janssen; Emilio Zagheni
  8. Sharing the caring? Dynamic interaction between siblings in the provision of care to parents By Timothy Hunt

  1. By: Daniel Gama e Colombo (Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brazil); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy (Georgia State University) and Governance and Economics Research Network (GEN))
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the expectation of a future lifetime survivor pension affects the educational choices of individuals and their families, focusing on the case of military daughters in Brazil. To assess this effect, we exploit a policy reform in the early 2000s that eliminated permanent pensions. The empirical analysis is based on microdata on daughters of different cohorts, and the impact of the permanent pensions is estimated using the average treatment effect (ATE) and the inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjusted estimator (IPWRA). The findings indicate that eligibility for lifetime pensions induced a 12.4-percent reduction in the average number of years of education, thus supporting the argument that generous social security benefits can act as a disincentive to education. The findings have relevant implications for the design of survivor pensions and other social security benefits, while also highlighting an inefficiency stemming from the Brazilian pension system.
    Date: 2024–04
  2. By: Bertrand Lefebvre (IFP, Pondicherry); Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi and HFACT, IEG Delhi); Vastav Ratra (IEG, Delhi)
    Abstract: Hypertension is one of the most prevalent NCDs in the world. Its prevalence is especially high among the elderly, a demographic groups on the rise in middle and low income countries. Extant medical literature calls for early detection to prevent aggravation of problems when old. In this paper, we investigate whether diagnosis of hypertension among adults aged 45 and above, is correlated with geographic access to primary public healthcare services, after accounting for a rich set of potentially confound- ing covariates. Our study focuses on rural India where access to public primary health services is especially poor but hypertension rates are high. We find that hypertensive adults belonging to poor households, face a dis- tance cost of public primary health facilities- and are 8 percent less likely to be aware of their hypertension when Primary Health Centres are 10 km away. Since almost 27 percent of villages in India are at least 10 km away from PHCs, this exclusionary effect is significant. Our analysis suggests that even though public primary facilities are poorly staffed and managed in India, and private care is popular, geographical expansion of public pri- mary facilities can still play an active role in NCDs and public primary health financing should take heed of the need for such expansion.
    Keywords: hypertension, elderly, ageing, distance, primary care
    JEL: I14 I15 I18 J14
    Date: 2024–04
  3. By: Yu, Chen
    Abstract: As the global population ages, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies holds significant promise in addressing the multifaceted challenges and opportunities presented by aging societies. This article explores the potential impact of AI in healthcare, the economy, social integration, and ethical considerations within the context of an aging population. By examining the role of AI in extending quality of life, promoting independence, and fostering inclusive policies, this study elucidates the ways in which AI can serve as a boon to aging societies. Through international collaboration and innovation, AI has the potential to revolutionize the landscape of aging, offering tailored solutions that enhance the well-being and social inclusion of older adults worldwide.
    Date: 2024–04–12
  4. By: Kniesner, Thomas J. (Claremont Graduate University); Viscusi, W. Kip (Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: The considerable literature on the value of a statistical life (VSL) documents the wage-mortality risk tradeoffs for the working population. Regulatory analyses often must monetize risks to populations at the tails of the age distribution. Because of the longer life expectancy for children, there have been proposals to add a premium to their VSL, which would generate an inconsistency with revealed preference estimates of the VSL trajectory over the life cycle. The shorter life expectancy among older people has led to various arbitrary senior discounts for seniors' life expectancy. Application of the value of a statistical life year (VSLY) can address valuation of small changes in life expectancy. Examples of inappropriate age adjustments that we discuss include practices by the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency.
    Keywords: circular A-4, Value of a Statistical Life, age, children, elderly, Value of a Statistical Life Year, VSL, VSLY
    JEL: J17 J28 I18 H40 K32
    Date: 2024–03
  5. By: Giorgos Foutzopoulos; Nikolaos Pandis; Michail Tsagris
    Abstract: The aim of this analysis is to predict whether an NBA player will be active in the league for at least 10 years so as to be qualified for NBA’s full retirement scheme which allows for the maximum benefit payable by law. We collected per game statistics for players during their second year, drafted during the years 1999 up to 2006, for which information on their career longetivity is known. By feeding these statistics of the sophomore players into statistical and machine learning algorithms we select the important statistics and manage to accomplish a satisfactory predictability performance. Further, we visualize the effect of each of the selected statistics on the estimated probability of staying in the league for more than 10 years
    Keywords: NBA, career duration, exit discrimination
    JEL: C41 C10 L83
    Date: 2024–04–20
  6. By: Thomas, Kelsey L.; Dobis, Elizabeth A.; McGranahan, David A.
    Abstract: The 2019 age-adjusted natural-cause mortality (NCM) rate for the prime working-age population (aged 25–54) was 43 percent higher in rural (nonmetropolitan) areas than in urban (metropolitan) areas. This is a shift from 25 years ago when NCM rates in urban and rural areas were similar for this age group. As a first step to understanding the increasing gap between rural and urban NCM rates, this report examines natural (disease-related) deaths for prime working-age adults in rural and urban areas between 1999 and 2019 using data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control’s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiology Research (WONDER). Prime working age NCM rates are examined for the population as a whole, as well as by sex, race and ethnicity, region, and State. Overall, both an increase in the rural, prime working-age NCM rates and a decrease in the corresponding urban rates are contributing to the growing mortality gap.
    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2024–03
  7. By: Ana C. Gómez Ugarte Valerio (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Carlo G. Camarda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Fanny Janssen; Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Commonly used measures of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, such as the slope and the relative index of inequality, are based on summary measures of the group-specific age-at-death distributions (e.g. life expectancy). While this approach is informative, it ignores valuable information contained in the group-specific distributions. We apply and evaluate a novel measure of socio-economic inequality in mortality. Leveraging a metric of statistical distance, our Population Total Variation (PTV) measure is sensitive not only to changes in the means or variances, but also to broader mortality changes that affect distributional shapes. The PTV also allow the levels and trends of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality to be decomposed into mortality changes versus changes in the composition of the population. We use mortality data by socioeconomic groups to assess mortality inequalities with both established measures and our proposed PTV. Our findings suggest that levels and trends in mortality inequalities computed with the PTV differ compared to other conventional summary-based measures. The method we propose can be applied to any context where mortality rates are available by socio-economic groups. We conclude that measuring distributional similarities in mortality enhances our understanding of between groups inequalities in mortality.
    Keywords: Denmark, England, Sweden, inequality, mortality
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2024
  8. By: Timothy Hunt
    Abstract: I analyse strategic interaction between adult siblings in the provision of care to an elderly parent by estimating a dynamic discrete-choice game in which siblings make location, work and care choices. I find that the opportunity for strategic play exacerbates gender differences in caring responsibilities as sons in particular strategically shirk providing care as they believe their sibling is relatively likely to provide care in their absence. Counterfactual experiments show that if siblings instead took care, location and work choices independently then the gender care gap would be around 14% smaller. Also, I find that unobserved preference differences between sons and daughters are far more important in driving the gender care gap than observed differences in wages.
    Date: 2024–02–29

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