nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒04‒29
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. The Social Multiplier of Pension Reform By Emre Oral; Simon Rabaté; Arthur Seibold
  2. Assessing the Labour Supply Effect of Harmonising Regular Retirement Age in Austria By Benjamin Bittschi; Thomas Horvath; Helmut Mahringer; Christine Mayrhuber; Martin Spielauer; Philipp Warum
  3. Live Longer and Healthier: Impact of Pension Income for Low-Income Retirees By Chiara Malavasi; Han Ye
  4. Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria By Thomas Horvath; Martin Spielauer; Philipp Warum
  5. The Influence of Occupational Licensing on Workforce Transitions to Retirement By Yun taek Oh; Morris M. Kleiner
  6. Income Receipt, Economic Activities, and Health: Evidence from Ambulance Transport Patterns By Yoko Ibuka; Junya Hamaaki
  7. Liberated from care: Long-term care insurance policy and Employment for women By Zhu, Ge
  8. Individualized pension contracts: risks, welfare losses and investment choices By Dees, Bart
  9. Millennials and Older Gen Zers Made Significant Wealth Gains in 2022 By Ana Hernández Kent; Lowell R. Ricketts
  10. The UK Universities Superannuation Scheme valuations 2014-2023: gilt yield dependence, self-sufficiency and metrics By Jackie Grant
  11. Drivers of home care agency closure: evidence from England By Allan, Stephen
  12. Advanced practice nursing in primary care in OECD countries: Recent developments and persisting implementation challenges By Ian Brownwood; Gaétan Lafortune
  13. Final considerations: the future of social protection within the consolidation of a welfare state in Latin America By Robles, Claudia

  1. By: Emre Oral; Simon Rabaté; Arthur Seibold
    Abstract: We study the influence of family members, neighbors and coworkers on retirement behavior. To estimate causal retirement spillovers between individuals, we exploit a pension reform in the Netherlands that creates exogenous variation in peers’ retirement ages, and we use administrative data on the full Dutch population. We find large spillovers in couples, primarily due to women reacting to their husband’s retirement choices. Consistent with homophily in social interactions, the influence of the average sibling, neighbor and coworker is modest, but sizable spillovers emerge between similar individuals in these groups. Additional evidence suggests both leisure complementarities and the transmission of social norms as mechanisms behind retirement spillovers. Our findings imply that pension reforms have a large social multiplier, amplifying their overall impact on retirement behavior by 40%.
    Keywords: retirement, pension reform, social networks, spillover, peer effects
    JEL: D91 H55 J26
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Benjamin Bittschi (WIFO); Thomas Horvath; Helmut Mahringer (WIFO); Christine Mayrhuber (WIFO); Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Philipp Warum (WIFO)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the ongoing harmonisation of the retirement age for women with that for men on women's labour supply in Austria. According to the current legal framework, the standard retirement age for women will be gradually raised from 60 to 65 years from 2024 onwards, with the retirement age being raised by 6 months each year. The impact of the pension reform on women's labour supply is quantified using the dynamic microsimulation model microDEMS. This model integrates demographic changes in line with official population projections and detailed labour market modelling. According to our projections, the labour supply of women aged 60 to 64 increases by 87, 000 in 2040 compared to a scenario in which the retirement age remains unchanged. We compare our results with two alternative approaches: the more stylised microWELT simulation model and a purely data-driven approach. While all methods produce very similar results in the long run, the detailed modelling in microDEMS provides more plausible results during the transition period when the reform is gradually implemented. This is because it allows for a realistic representation of pension paths, taking into account all relevant pension types and the corresponding eligibility criteria, such as sufficient accumulated insurance periods. In contrast to a purely data-driven approach, microDEMS modelling also has the advantage of explicitly representing and quantifying the components of the change in labour supply.
    Keywords: Dynamic microsimulation, Pension reform, Labour force participation
    Date: 2024–03–28
  3. By: Chiara Malavasi; Han Ye
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of additional pension income on mortality outcomes by exploring the eligibility criteria of a German program subsidizing the pensions of low-wage workers. Using novel administrative data, we find that eligibility leads to a 2-month delay in age at death (censored at 75). Survey evidence suggests that additional pension income improves both mental and physical health. In addition, individuals feel less financially constrained and are more optimistic about their future. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the results are mainly driven by men.
    Keywords: Mortality, Health, Income, Pension subsidy, Retirement
    JEL: I10 I12 J14 J26
    Date: 2024–03
  4. By: Thomas Horvath; Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Philipp Warum (WIFO)
    Abstract: Capturing the heterogeneity of life courses improves the accuracy, detail and policy relevance of population and labour force projections. Our study uses the microsimulation model microDEMS for Austria, which simulates individual life courses at a high level of detail and in their family context. The model pays particular attention to educational attainment, health and labour market participation. By maintaining the longitudinal consistency of labour market careers, including the tracking of insurance periods, together with the implementation of detailed retirement rules, our model provides realistic representations of retirement decisions. While we reproduce the demographic outcomes of official (Statistics Austria) population projections, including international migration by region of birth, we integrate several additional dimensions, such as educational differentials in mortality and fertility. MicroDEMS allows to consider a wide range of scenarios when assessing the sensitivity of results, or to focus on the impact of policy changes targeted at specific population subgroups, such as mothers, immigrants, or people with health impairments or lower educational levels. MicroDEMS is a detailed national version of the comparative microWELT model. In this context, microDEMS is used for sensitivity analysis and case studies to assess potential specification bias introduced in microWELT due to the neglect of institutional detail or the less detailed treatment of population heterogeneity, such as in the case of international migration.
    Keywords: Dynamic microsimulation, Pension reform, Labour force participation
    Date: 2024–04–15
  5. By: Yun taek Oh; Morris M. Kleiner
    Abstract: Ways of leaving the labor force has been an understudied aspect of labor market outcomes. Labor market institutions such as occupational licensing may influence how individuals transition to retirement. When and how workers transition from career jobs to full retirement may contribute to pre- and post-retirement well-being. Previous investigations of retirement pathways focused on the patterns and outcomes of retirement transitions, yet the influence of occupational licensing on retirement transition has not been analyzed. In this study, we use the Current Population Survey and Survey of Income and Program Participation to investigate how occupational licensing influences American later-career workers’ choice of retirement pathways. Our results show that licensed workers are less likely to choose to change careers but more likely to reduce work hours in transitioning out of the workforce. These results are consistent with the findings that licensed workers receive more benefits in the form of preferable retirement options, suggesting that these workers tend to have higher wages, benefits, and flexibility even toward the end of their careers.
    JEL: J0 J26 J3 J30 J32 J33 J40 J44
    Date: 2024–03
  6. By: Yoko Ibuka (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Junya Hamaaki (Faculty of Economics, Hosei University)
    Abstract: Studies suggest that mortality increases after income receipt. To examine whether the adverse effect of income on health is induced by economic activities and how certain economic activities are related to specific health conditions, we investigate withinmonth cycles in ambulance transport, utilizing detailed information on the locations of the origin and timing of the transports. Our analysis exploits the difference in the number of patients on the same day between payment and non-payment months, using the Japanese National Pension for the elderly that is distributed bi-monthly. We observe a 4.5% increase in ambulance transports on the day of pension payment, primarily attributed to heightened economic activities such as gambling or amusement, shopping, and dining out. We have suggestive evidence indicating that this increase in transport is linked to a relaxation in liquidity. These findings have implications for healthcare system preparedness and the optimal design of public benefit payment.
    Keywords: Emergency Medical Services, Social Security Payment, Time Stamp, Excess sensitivity
    JEL: H55 H75 I12
    Date: 2024–03–25
  7. By: Zhu, Ge
    Abstract: In the context of an increasingly aging population, this paper examines the economic incentives of long-term care insurance policies for women to disengage from informal care responsibilities within the household. Through constructing both theoretical analytical frameworks and empirical identification strategies, we seek to comprehend the causal relationship between women benefiting from long-term care insurance policy pilot programs and their entry or re-entry into the labor market. Our findings indicate that long-term care insurance policies significantly stimulate female employment. This discovery implies that aiding women in shifting family responsibilities to the market contributes to enhancing female labor participation. Robustness checks corroborate our findings, and the outcomes of competitive hypotheses demonstrate that alleviating family care burdens is more conducive to promoting female employment than providing care job opportunities. Further analysis suggests that long-term care insurance policies may also potentially undermine China's "raising children to support old age" mechanism and the preference for sons over daughters. However, there exist heterogeneities concerning enhancing women's bargaining power in both the household and society.
    Keywords: Long-term Care insurance policy; Women employment; Informal care; China; Competing hypotheses; Bargaining power of women
    JEL: I1 J2
    Date: 2024–01–24
  8. By: Dees, Bart (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2024
  9. By: Ana Hernández Kent; Lowell R. Ricketts
    Abstract: The wealth of U.S. millennials and older Gen Zers grew at an unusually fast pace from 2019 to 2022, with real estate gains driving overall asset growth.
    Keywords: wealth; millennials; Generation Z; real estate
    Date: 2024–02–26
  10. By: Jackie Grant
    Abstract: This review considers the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) valuations from 2014 to 2023. USS is a 70-80 billion GBP Defined Benefit pension scheme with over 500, 000 members who are employed (or have been employed) at around 70 UK universities. Disputes over USS have led to a decade of industrial action. New results are presented showing the high dependence of USS pension contributions on the return from UK government bonds (the gilt yield). The two conditions of the USS-specific 'self-sufficiency' (SfS) definition are examined. USS data are presented along with new analysis. It is shown that the second SfS condition of 'maintaining a high funding ratio' dominates USS modelling to amplify gilt yield dependence, inflating the SfS liabilities beyond the regulatory requirements, and leading to excessive prudence. The Red, Amber and Green status of USS metrics 'Actual' and 'Target' Reliance are also examined. It is shown that Target Reliance tethers the cost of future pensions to the SfS definition and that Actual Reliance can simultaneously be Green and Red. Implications for regulatory intervention are considered. An aim of this review is to support evidence-based decision making and consensus building.
    Date: 2024–02
  11. By: Allan, Stephen
    Abstract: Context: Hundreds of thousands of people in England with long-term care needs are supported by more than 10, 000 home care agencies. However, little is known about the market dynamics of home care supply, either in England or internationally. Objective: To understand the reasons for home care agency closure in England. Method: Regression analysis of the future status of home care agencies open in the period 2015–2017 using a panel dataset of 98% of all agencies registered to provide care in England. Measures of quality, competition and other local area demand and supply factors, e.g. population, needs and rurality, were included in the analysis. Instrumental variable methods were used to address endogeneity in the relationship between closure and both competition and quality. Findings: Fourteen point two per cent of home care agencies had closed one year after observation, with some differences observed by region. Regression analysis confirmed that higher competition and lower quality significantly increased closure likelihood. A new agency locating immediately next to the average provider would increase the likelihood of closure of the existing agency by a quarter. Independent agencies and those which supported a local population with higher needs had significantly reduced chance of closure. Limitations: There were data limitations to the analysis, with no information on size of agencies and assumptions made on where they delivered care. Implications: Competitive effects in home care markets must be carefully considered given the importance of ensuring equitable access to care. The findings also confirm the importance of quality regulation in long-term care.
    Keywords: competition; quality; home care; business; closure; PR-PRU1217–21101
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2024–03–07
  12. By: Ian Brownwood; Gaétan Lafortune
    Abstract: The pandemic has stimulated growing interest in using advanced practice nurses such as Nurse Practitioners (NPs) to address growing primary care needs linked to population ageing and more people living with chronic conditions, although not all countries are moving at the same speed. This OECD Health Working paper reviews recent developments in advance practice nursing (APN) in primary care in OECD countries. It focusses on NPs in those countries that are recognising this category of nurses, but also describes the emergence of other categories of nurses taking on new roles such as family and community nurses in some European countries. In those countries that have achieved decisive breakthroughs in new forms of task sharing between primary care doctors (GPs) and nurses, increasing the number of APNs in primary care is seen as a real opportunity to respond to primary care needs and reduce pressures on GPs and hospitals.
    Date: 2024–04–15
  13. By: Robles, Claudia
    Date: 2024–03–05

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