nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒02‒26
six papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Beliefs about demographic change: How well are individuals informed? By Elisa Stumpf; Jana Schuetz; Silke Uebelmesser; Ronja Baginski; Carmela Aprea
  2. Pay-as-they-get-in: attitudes towards migrants and pension systems By Boeri, Tito Michele; Gamalerio, Matteo; Morelli, Massimo; Negri, Margherita
  3. Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability By Mikko Myrskylä; Julia Hellstrand; Sampo Lappo; Angelo Lorenti; Jessica Nisén; Ziwei Rao; Heikki Tikanmäki
  4. Beliefs about the Gender Pension Gap By Jana Schuetz
  5. The Effect of Migration on Careers of Natives: Evidence from Long-Term Care By Haan, Peter; Wnuk, Izabela
  6. End-of-Life Surveys in the French Overseas Departments : Data Collection Protocol By Sophie Pennec; Joëlle Gaymu; Efi Markou; Amandine Stephan; Géraldine Vivier; FDVDOM Team

  1. By: Elisa Stumpf (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Jana Schuetz (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, CESifo); Ronja Baginski (University of Mannheim, MIFE); Carmela Aprea (University of Mannheim, MIFE)
    Abstract: Demographic change is one of Germany’s most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that respondents tend to overestimate the old-age dependency ratio when considering the current and long-term demographic situation separately. However, their beliefs regarding the change of the old-age dependency ratios over the considered period are not far from the projected change. A better understanding of the German statutory pension insurance plays an important role for more accurate beliefs.
    Keywords: beliefs, belief updating, demographic change, old-age dependency ratio, information provision
    JEL: H55 D83
    Date: 2024–01–31
  2. By: Boeri, Tito Michele; Gamalerio, Matteo; Morelli, Massimo; Negri, Margherita
    Abstract: We study whether a better knowledge of the functioning of pay-as-you-go pension systems and recent demographic trends in the hosting country affects natives' attitudes towards immigration. In two online experiments in Italy and Spain, we randomly treated participants with a video explaining how, in pay-as-you-go pension systems, the payment of current pensions depends on the contributions paid by current workers. The video also explains that the ratio between the number of pensioners and the number of workers in their countries will grow substantially in the future. We find that the treatment improves participants' knowledge about how a pay-as-you-go system works and the future demographic trends in their country. However, we find that only treated participants who support non-populist parties display more positive attitudes towards migrants, even though the treatment increases knowledge of pension systems and demographic trends for all participants.
    Keywords: information provision; experiment; immigration; pay-as-you-go pension systems; population ageing; populism
    JEL: C90 D83 H55 J15 F22
    Date: 2023–03–16
  3. By: Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sampo Lappo; Angelo Lorenti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jessica Nisén (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ziwei Rao; Heikki Tikanmäki
    Abstract: Future fertility is a key input when charting the sustainability of social security systems, and declining fertility is often expected to put pressure on economic indicators such as pension burden. Such expectations are based on a narrow view of the impact of fertility on the economy, focusing on age structure. Dynamic impacts – for instance, the potential for increased human capital of smaller cohorts – are mostly ignored. We use a dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model to explore to what extent investments in human capital could offset the adverse economic impact of low fertility. We implement our model in the Finnish context, which is a particularly interesting case as Finland is the fastest-ageing European country and experienced dramatic fertility declines and stagnant education levels in the 2020s. We find that an ambitious but simple human capital investment strategy that keeps the total investment constant despite declining cohort size, thereby increasing per-capita investment, can offset the negative impact of a smaller labor force on pension burden. Human capital investment not only reduces pension burden, but also increases working years, pension income, retirement years, and longevity. Policies focusing on human capital investment are likely to be a viable strategy to maintain economic sustainability. Keywords: low fertility, human capital investment, economic sustainability, Finland, dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2024
  4. By: Jana Schuetz (Friedrich Schiller University Jena)
    Abstract: I conduct an online survey of 3, 000 respondents in the United States to examine individuals’ beliefs about the gender pension gap. By including an information provision experiment in which treated respondents are informed about the size of the gender pension gap, I examine whether receiving this information causally affects respondents’ perceptions of the fairness and drivers of the gender pension gap and their support for policies aimed at reducing it. I find that most respondents underestimate the gender pension gap and that treated respondents are less likely to perceive the gender pension gap as fair. In addition, treated respondents perceive the unequal distribution of care work and gender differences in wages as more important drivers of the gap, and their demand for remedial policies such as targeted financial education increases significantly. In terms of heterogeneity, I find that female respondents are generally less affected by the treatment than male respondents when asked about their policy views, although the treatment affects male and female respondents’ beliefs and perceptions about the gender pension gap similarly.
    Keywords: gender pension gap, survey experiment, information provision, pension reform preferences
    JEL: J26 J16 H55 C90
    Date: 2024–01–31
  5. By: Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin); Wnuk, Izabela (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of increasing foreign staffing on the labor market outcomes of native workers in the German long-term care sector. Using administrative social security data covering the universe of long-term care workers and policy-induced exogenous variation, we find that increased foreign staffing reduces labor shortages but has diverging implications for the careers of native workers in the sector. While it causes a transition of those currently employed to jobs with better working conditions, higher wages, and non-manual tasks, it simultaneously diminishes re-employment prospects for the unemployed natives with LTC experience.
    Keywords: immigration, shift-share instrument, long-term care, EU enlargement
    JEL: J61 I11
    Date: 2024–01
  6. By: Sophie Pennec; Joëlle Gaymu; Efi Markou; Amandine Stephan; Géraldine Vivier; FDVDOM Team
    Abstract: Background A number of changes regarding the end of life have occurred in recent decades, notably legislative changes. This stage of life, which usually comes at an advanced age, is now largely medicalised and institutionalised. This research project in the French overseas departments follows on from a study conducted in metropolitan France in 2010 on the circumstances in which people spend their last months of life. From the metropolitan France study, the researchers were able to assess the implementation of the 2005 Leonetti Law, improve understanding of residential transitions prior to death, the role of carers, and people’s wishes as to where they want to die. End-of-life circumstances in the overseas departments are not known. And yet the population is ageing fast, people commonly die at home, the organisation of family life is changing fast, the share of poverty is higher and there are fewer residential aged care facilities. These factors all shape end-of-life conditions in different ways, so it will be useful to acquire more data about the situation in these departments. Aims The purpose of this research is to give an overview of end-of-life conditions in the French overseas departments (Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana and La Réunion). The aim is to see in what ways they differ from those pertaining in metropolitan France and document what public policy changes would be needed to meet these departments’ particular needs. The first research strand explores possible inequalities in medical care at this stage of life between the four overseas departments and metropolitan France: do the same individual or general situations receive the same medical care everywhere? A second strand focuses on implementation of the two laws that grant rights to end-of-life patients in France: the law of 22 April 2005 and that of 16 February 2016. It compares medical practice with the provisions of the legislation and describes how much patients and their families know about these laws and their application. The third strand considers the more sociological aspects regarding family and social context at this stage of life, how patient care and support is organised and who is involved. Patients’ families were asked about their perceptions and expectations, with a view to improving quality of life for caregivers and hence also for people in their last stage of life. Method The data had to be gathered, as there were none in existence. We conducted a quantitative survey among physicians, using the broad lines of the protocol designed for metropolitan France but adapting it to local particularities to achieve a proper measure of different indicators for all topics under study and in particular medical decisions at end-of-life. We also conducted a qualitative survey in La Réunion to shed light on the context for ageing in the overseas departments and the proportion of home deaths. This comprised a series of semi-directive interviews with decedents’ relatives and two focus groups, providing new information about (a) people’s knowledge of the law and (b) the strengths and weaknesses of end-of-life care at home. Prospects This project is the first to provide scientists, the health authorities and the public with objective data on end-of-life conditions in the French overseas departments. It shows the impact of the overseas departments’ sociodemographic and cultural particularities on end-of-life care and offers health professionals and the authorities some food for thought on end-of-life care policy.
    Keywords: fin de vie, décisions médicales, soins palliatifs, lieu de décès, limitation et arrêt de traitement, sédation, euthanasie, prise en soins, enquête, Départements d'Outre-Mer, ENQUETE / SURVEYS, ANALYSE QUANTITATIVE / QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS, FIN DE VIE / END OF LIFE, SOINS PALLIATIFS / PALLIATIVE CARE, DOM-TOM / FRENCH OVERSEAS DEPARTMENTS AND TERRITORIES, EUTHANASIE / EUTHANASIA, LIEU DE DECES / PLACE OF DEATH
    Date: 2024

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