nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒02‒05
eight papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. How did the full-scale invasion affect the aging process in Ukraine? By Basysta, Khrystyna
  2. Patient versus provider incentives in long-term care By Hackmann, Martin B.; Pohl, R. Vincent; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
  3. Labor market externalities of pre-retirement employment protection By Chrostek, Paweł; Karbownik, Krzystof; Myck, Michał
  4. Do Pension Fund Equity Investments Raise Firm Productivity? Evidence From Danish Data By Beetsma, Roel; Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard; Pinkus, David; Pozzoli, Dario
  5. The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 By Congressional Budget Office
  6. Effect on New Loan Repayment Fine Clause on Bank Jaya Artha's Customer Satisfaction and Recommendation By Mustaqim Adamrah; Yos Sunitiyoso
  7. Retirement decision and household's gasoline consumption: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design By Nicola Francescutto
  8. Elderly People Treated in Integrated Home Care in Italian Regions: A Metric Approach By Resta, Onofrio; Resta, Emanuela; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo

  1. By: Basysta, Khrystyna
    Abstract: The aging process in Ukraine has become increasingly significant due to several factors, including the country's shrinking workforce, rising pension expenditures, and reduced capacity for long-term social and economic investments. Moreover, the ongoing war in Ukraine exacerbates these challenges by displacing a significant portion of the population, contributing to an increased burden on social welfare systems, and hindering economic recovery. Furthermore, the absence of a large enough workforce could contribute to the labor shortage and the resulting reduction in Ukraine's global competitiveness. To address these issues and mitigate the economic impact, Ukraine needs comprehensive strategies encompassing healthcare, pension services, and long-term social and economic investments. By investing in such strategies and promoting sustained economic development, Ukraine can effectively manage the challenges posed by its aging population and enhance overall economic stability.
    Keywords: Population, aging process, Ukraine, war, life expectancy.
    JEL: J10 J11 J13
    Date: 2023–11–25
  2. By: Hackmann, Martin B.; Pohl, R. Vincent; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
    Abstract: How do patient and provider incentives affect the provision of long-term care? Our analysis of 551 thousand nursing home stays yields three main insights. First, Medicaid-covered residents prolong their stays instead of transitioning to community-based care due to limited cost-sharing. Second, when facility capacity binds, nursing homes shorten Medicaid stays to admit more profitable out-of-pocket private payers. Third, providers react more elastically to financial incentives than patients. Thus, targeting provider incentives through alternative payment models, such as episode-based reimbursement, is more effective than increasing patient cost-sharing in facilitating transitions to community-based care and generating long-term care savings.
    Keywords: Long-Term Care, Nursing Homes, Patient Incentives, Provider Incentives, Cost-Sharing, Episode-Based Reimbursement, Medicaid
    JEL: H51 H75 I11 I13 I18 J14
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Chrostek, Paweł (Ministry of Finance; Institute of Economics); Karbownik, Krzystof (Department of Economics, Emory University); Myck, Michał (Centre for Economic Analysis)
    Abstract: Using population-level administrative data, we document effects of changes in age-specific employment protection legislation (EPL) on labor market outcomes of those approaching eligibility. Our results show no economically meaningful overall effects of the legislation on employment or earnings of either men or women. Considering separately incumbent workers and non-employees we find small positive and small negative employment effects for the former and the latter groups, respectively. The positive employment effects are likely to reflect additional effort exerted to remain employed up to the coverage threshold.
    Keywords: employment protection; retirement
    JEL: J00
    Date: 2024–01–04
  4. By: Beetsma, Roel (University of Amsterdam); Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Pinkus, David (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Pozzoli, Dario (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: We have constructed a comprehensive dataset that integrates ownership information with Danish registers, enabling us to empirically document a significant relationship between pension fund equity investment and firm productivity. Following such an investment, we observe a substantial increase in firm productivity, averaging between 3% and 5%. This finding is robust and persists across various methodological considerations, including selection issues and a broad array of refinements, such as controlling for the firm’s status as an exporter and the types of co-investors. The productivity effect increases with the equity stake. Additionally, we find that pension funds tend to invest for longer periods than other institutional investors, such as private equity. Consistent with this fact, the estimated productivity increase is positively correlated with the duration of the equity investment by pension funds. Furthermore, the productivity increase is particularly pronounced for unlisted and small firms. These combined findings are consistent with pension funds engaging in long-term financing commitments and alleviating financial constraints on firms, enabling them to make productivity-enhancing investments. Our results suggest that public policies aimed at stimulating pension funding and encouraging pension fund equity holdings could enhance the productivity of the economy.
    Keywords: pension funds; productivity; equity; structural estimation
    JEL: D22 D24 G32
    Date: 2024–01–18
  5. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, has significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054, growing by 0.4 percent per year, on average, or by less than one-half the pace experienced from 1974 to 2023 (0.9 percent per year). Over the next decade, net immigration accounts for about 70 percent of the overall increase in the size of the population, and the greater number of births than deaths accounts for the remaining 30
    JEL: J10 J11 J13 J15
    Date: 2024–01–18
  6. By: Mustaqim Adamrah; Yos Sunitiyoso
    Abstract: The growing population of older people in Indonesia--the world's fourth-most populous country--makes a larger cake for the pension business, including in the banking sector. PT Bank Jaya Artha is one of the Indonesian banks that provide products and services for people who are set to enter retirement age. In the wake of tight competition in the pension business market, Bank Jaya Artha has since 2019 imposed a fine of three times of installments in addition to 5% of outstanding debt on customers planning to repay their debt in a mission to prevent them from leaving for competitors. While the clause is not included in loan agreements signed before the implementation, it applies to past loan agreements as well. This, in turn, has led to customer complaints. The research is meant to find out how the implementation of the unconsented clause has affected customer satisfaction and willingness to recommend the bank and what the bank should do to become more customer-centric, according to customers. Using a design thinking framework, the research collects quantitative and qualitative data from the bank's pension customers through questionnaires and forum group discussions. Statistical analysis is utilized on quantitative data from questionnaires, and content analysis is utilized on qualitative data from questionnaires. A narrative analysis is also used to explain qualitative data from forum group discussions. The result shows that there are problems in the way the bank communicates information to customers, particularly information about the loan repayment fine. Lack of transparency, a reactive approach instead of a proactive one, the obscurity of the information, and the time the information is delivered have affected customers' satisfaction toward the bank.
    Date: 2024–01
  7. By: Nicola Francescutto
    Abstract: I employ household-level data over 2006-2017 to quantify the impact of retirement on gasoline consumption. Based on a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, I show that gasoline consumption declines by 32-36 percent on average over my different specifications. The reduction reaches 59-66 percent when I restrict the sample to single-person households. I further find that the probability to use any gasoline decreases by 5-6 percent at retirement (13-16 percent for single-person households). These findings suggest that demographic trends represent an important driver of CO2 emissions as- sociated with private mobility in developed countries.
    Keywords: gasoline consumption; retirement effect; Household expenditure survey; fuzzy regression discontinuity design
    JEL: C21 C23 D12 Q4
    Date: 2024–01
  8. By: Resta, Onofrio; Resta, Emanuela; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo
    Abstract: In this article, we analyse the ESG determinants of the “Elderly People Treated in Integrated Home Care”-EPIHC in the Italian regions between 2004 and 2022. We used data from the ISTAT-BES database. We used different econometric techniques i.e.: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS and Weighted Least Squares-WLS. The results show that the EPIHC is positively associated with “Nurses, midwives, and Soil sealing by artificial cover" and negatively associated with "Museum heritage density and relevance" and "Trust in law enforcement agencies and firefighters fire". Furthermore, we have applied a k-Means algorithm with the Silhouette Coefficient and we find the presence of two clusters. Finally, we propose a confrontation among eight different machine-learning algorithms and we find that Linear Regression is the best predictive algorithm.
    Keywords: Analysis of Health Care Markets, Health Behaviors, Health Insurance, Public and Private, Health and Inequality, Health and Economic Development, Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health.
    JEL: I11 I12 I13 I14 I15 I18
    Date: 2023–12–30

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