nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2024‒01‒29
ten papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Retirement consumption and pension design By Kolsrud, Jonas; Landais, Camille; Reck, Daniel; Spinnewijn, Johannes
  2. Projected costs of informal care for older people in England By Hu, Bo; Cartagena-Farias, Javiera; Brimblecombe, Nicola; Jadoolal, Shari; Wittenberg, Raphael
  3. Essays on Health, Labor Market Behavior, and Economic Incentives By Vega, Alejandro
  4. Nothing Really Matters: Evaluating Demand-Side Moderators of Age Discrimination in Hiring By Dalle, Axana; Lippens, Louis; Baert, Stijn
  5. Managing Demographic Transitions: A Comprehensive Analysis of China's Path to Economic Sustainability By Yuxin Hu
  6. New adjustment procedure for distortion in age distribution By Afza Rasul; Jamal Abdul Nasir; Dmitri A. Jdanov
  7. Las cuentas de la Seguridad Social Ampliada. Series 2005-2023, v1.1 (Actualización para incorporar la liquidación de 2022) By Ángel de la Fuente
  8. Surviving Loss: Coping Strategies among Widow Households in Thai Rural Areas By Saisawat Samutpradit
  9. Simulating Long-Run Wealth Distribution and Transmission: The Role of Intergenerational Transfers By Bavaro, Michele; Boscolo, Stefano; Tedeschi, Simone
  10. Observatorio Demográfico de América Latina y el Caribe 2023. La dinámica demográfica de América Latina y su impacto en la fuerza de trabajo By -

  1. By: Kolsrud, Jonas; Landais, Camille; Reck, Daniel; Spinnewijn, Johannes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes consumption to evaluate the distributional effects of pension reforms. Using Swedish administrative data, we show that on average, workers who retire earlier consume less while retired and experience larger drops in consumption around retirement. Interpreted via a theoretical model, these findings imply that reforms incentivizing later retirement incur a substantial consumption smoothing cost. Turning to other features of pension policy, we find that reforms that redistribute based on early-career labor supply would have opposite-signed redistributive effects, while differentiating on wealth may help to target pension benefits toward those who are vulnerable to larger drops in consumption around retirement.
    JEL: E21 H23 H55 J22 J26
    Date: 2024–01–01
  2. By: Hu, Bo; Cartagena-Farias, Javiera; Brimblecombe, Nicola; Jadoolal, Shari; Wittenberg, Raphael
    Abstract: Background Health economics research and economic evaluation have increasingly taken a societal perspective, accounting for the economic impacts of informal care. Projected economic costs of informal care help researchers and policymakers understand better the long-term consequences of policy reforms and health interventions. This study makes projections of the economic costs of informal care for older people in England. Methods Data come from two national surveys: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA, N = 35, 425) and the Health Survey for England (N = 17, 292). We combine a Markov model with a macrosimulation model to make the projections. We explore a range of assumptions about future demographic and epidemiological trends to capture model uncertainty and take a Bayesian approach to capture parameter uncertainty. Results We estimate that the economic costs of informal care were £54.2 billion in 2019, three times larger than the expenditure on formal long-term care. Those costs are projected to rise by 87% by 2039, faster than public expenditure but slower than private expenditure on formal long-term care. These results are sensitive to assumptions about future life expectancy, fertility rates, and progression of disabilities in the population. Conclusions Prevention schemes aiming to promote healthy aging and independence will be important to alleviate the costs of informal care. The government should strengthen support for informal caregivers and care recipients to ensure the adequacy of care, protect the well-being of caregivers, and prevent the costs of informal care from spilling over to other sectors of the economy.
    Keywords: informal care costs; economic valuation; functional disabilities; long-term care projections; England; This study; as part of the Care and Place (CAPE) project; was supported by the School for Social Care Research (SSCR) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR).
    JEL: I11 J11 E26 E27
    Date: 2023–12–12
  3. By: Vega, Alejandro (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Paper [1] analyzes how labor force participation changes in response to major health shocks, such as new cancer diagnoses, heart attacks, and strokes, in middle-aged to elderly Mexican couples, and how the spouses interact in their responses to these shocks. The data originates from the Mexican Health and Aging Study and provides information on how couples coordinate their labor market activities in response to major health shocks. The results show that women’s labor force participation is negatively affected by a major health shock to their husbands. In contrast, men’s labor force participation does not change significantly in response to a major health shock to their wives. <p> Paper [2] focuses on the correlation between negative health shocks and the households’ share of wealth held in risky assets. By using U.S. data from the Health and Retirement Study, we try to establish a link between negative health shocks and financial outcomes such as the household’s probability of owning risky assets and the share of risky assets held. We define a recent negative health shock to include cancer or malignant tumor diagnoses, stroke or transient ischemic attack, heart attack, coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems. We find that both the probability of owning risky assets, and the share of risky assets, are significantly lower among households where the women has experienced a negative health shock. In contrast, neither the probability of owning risky assets nor the share of risky assets held by the household are significantly associated with a negative health shock to the man. <p> Paper [3] investigates whether job loss can cause symptoms of depression in later life. We focus on couples aged 50 or older. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study, which provides longitudinal information about changes in labor market status and mental health outcomes among respondents and their spouses in the United States. To deal with potential reverse causality problems, we utilize data on job loss resulting from business closures. We find that job loss can lead to depressive symptoms for the affected individual’s partner. The effects are gendered, as women are negatively affected by job losses experienced by their husbands, but we do not observe such harmful effects among men whose wives lose their jobs. We also show how the effects of job loss vary across couples with differing levels of economic resources and health care needs, as well as differential access to health care. <p> Paper [4] estimates the labor supply response to an increase in the marginal wage rate among middle-aged to elderly Mexican women. Using data from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, I find that an increase in the marginal wage rate is associated with an increase in worked hours. The results suggest that the marginal wage rate elasticities are larger for older women than for their younger counterparts.
    Keywords: Labor force participation; labor supply; health status; financial risk-taking; gender differences; job loss
    JEL: G11 G50 I10 J01
    Date: 2023–12–26
  4. By: Dalle, Axana (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University)
    Abstract: As age discrimination hampers the OECD's ambition to extend the working population, an efficient anti-discrimination policy targeted at the right employers is critical. Therefore, the context in which age discrimination is most prevalent must be identified. In this study, we thoroughly review the current theoretical arguments and empirical findings regarding moderators of age discrimination in different demand-side domains (i.e. decision-maker, vacancy, occupation, organisation, and sector). Our review demonstrates that the current literature is highly fragmented and often lacks field-experimental evidence, raising concerns about its internal and external validity. To address this gap, we conducted a correspondence experiment and systematically linked the resulting data to external data sources. In so doing, we were able to study the priorly determined demand-side moderators within a single multi-level analysis and simultaneously control multiple correlations between potential moderators and discrimination estimates. Having done so, we found no empirical support for any of these moderators.
    Keywords: ageism, hiring discrimination, heterogeneity, literature review, field experiment, administrative data
    JEL: J71 J23 J14
    Date: 2023–12
  5. By: Yuxin Hu
    Abstract: This article presents an analysis of China's economic evolution amidst demographic changes from 1990 to 2050, offering valuable insights for academia and policymakers. It uniquely intertwines various economic theories with empirical data, examining the impact of an aging population, urbanization, and family dynamics on labor, demand, and productivity. The study's novelty lies in its integration of Classical, Neoclassical, and Endogenous Growth theories, alongside models like Barro and Sala-i-Martin, to contextualize China's economic trajectory. It provides a forward-looking perspective, utilizing econometric methods to predict future trends, and suggests practical policy implications. This comprehensive approach sheds light on managing demographic transitions in a global context, making it a significant contribution to the field of demographic economics.
    Date: 2023–12
  6. By: Afza Rasul (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jamal Abdul Nasir; Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Accurate age data is a prerequisite for any demographic inquiry. Unfortunately, in many developing countries visible age heaping is present in census and survey data of reported age at the time of census or survey. In this article, a new method is proposed for age adjustment of the respondent current age at the time of interview/data collection. The method is based on the rectangular distribution probabilities for terminal digits of age. The algorithms-based method is used to estimate true/adjusted age distribution in the presence of age heaping/age misreporting. Application of the method is performed on the most recent demographic and health survey data from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Ethiopia, and Gambia. UN Criteria for age accuracy is used to check the accuracy of adjusted/true age distribution. The result revealed that after adjustment of the terminal digit by the proposed method of digit shift the adjusted age distributions are perfectly accurate. The method will be applicable to survey and census data. The method will be very useful in fertility analysis where the individual year of age of women plays an important role.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Ángel de la Fuente
    Abstract: En esta nota se describe brevemente la última actualización de las series de cuentas consolidadas de la Seguridad Social Ampliada (SSA) para incorporar la liquidación de los Presupuestos de la Seguridad Social de 2022 que se recoge en (IGSS, 2023a). Para una discusión detallada de la construcción de las distintas variables que integran las series, véase (de la Fuente, 2023).
    Date: 2024–01
  8. By: Saisawat Samutpradit
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of the death of the primary earner of the household on the labor supply decision of the remaining household member in rural areas, in contrast to literature which often focuses on more developed societies with complete public insurance coverage. We found widow households could maintain the same level of consumption with only a temporary decline in savings. They achieved this by taking over the household business and receiving support from children and other relatives who moved in to assist, with the responsibility falling on daughters rather than sons. On the contrary, widowers withdrew from the labor force after the death of their wives. The di erence in responses could be explained by the income gain to the remaining household members. Widows also experienced a rise in gift income and a decrease in public transfer.
    Keywords: Family structure; Labor supply; Elderly population
    JEL: J12 J14 J22 I31
    Date: 2024–01
  9. By: Bavaro, Michele; Boscolo, Stefano; Tedeschi, Simone
    Abstract: This paper utilises the Italian Treasury Dynamic Microsimulation Model (T-DYMM) to project individual and household economic trends up to 2070, focusing on the intergenerational transmission of wealth inequality. To analyse the impact of intergenerational transfers (IGTs) on wealth inequality, various scenarios are compared to a baseline. Results suggest that net wealth inequality will remain stable until 2040, when it is expected to rise progressively, especially due to the rising role of IGTs. Demographic factors like increased life expectancy and declining fertility are the main explanations for this phenomenon. Finally, while some assumptions, like accounting for no behavioural adjustments in response to tax changes, have limitations, this study provides valuable insights into potential effects and timelines for inheritance tax reforms on long-term inequality transmission.
    Keywords: intergenerational transfers, inheritance, taxation, wealth inequality, capital income, dynamic microsimulation.
    Date: 2024–01
  10. By: -
    Abstract: A fin de mostrar el impacto de la dinámica demográfica en la fuerza de trabajo de la región, en esta edición del Observatorio Demográfico se analizan indicadores de las estimaciones y proyecciones de la fuerza de trabajo por sexo, edad y área de residencia para el período 1980-2050 para los 20 países de América Latina, sobre la base de la Revisión 2023 llevada a cabo por el Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía (CELADE)-División de Población de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). En el análisis se destaca que los cambios estructurales de la fuerza de trabajo entre 1980 y 2022 y sus proyecciones hacia 2050 presentan escenarios radicalmente diferentes según los grupos de edad y sexo, así como según se trate de áreas urbanas o rurales, lo que tiene implicaciones para las políticas públicas en materia de trabajo, educación, salud y cuidado, entre otras áreas. Asimismo, se presentan la metodología y las fuentes de datos utilizadas para las estimaciones y proyecciones. Las estimaciones y proyecciones de la fuerza de trabajo para la población urbana y rural, y por sexo y grupos de edad para el período 1950-2100, están disponibles en [en línea] ciones-demograficas/america-latina-carib e-estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion/es timaciones-proyecciones-excel.
    Date: 2023–12–29

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