nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2023‒11‒06
twelve papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Retirement Decision of Belgian Couples and the Impact of the Social Security System By Cetin, Sefane; Jousten, Alain
  2. Life Expectancy, Income and Long-Term Care: The Preston Curve Reexamined By Ponthiere, Gregory; Thibault, Emmanuel
  3. Medicaid expansion and the mental health of spousal caregivers By Raut, Nilesh; Costa-Font, Joan; van-Houtven, Courtney
  4. Harmonizing the Yin and Yang: Gender Disparities in Subjective Well-Being after Retirement in China By Erkmen G. Aslim; Shin-Yi Chou; Han Yu
  5. To what extent can urbanisation mitigate the negative impact of population ageing in China? By Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
  6. Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy By Madeline E. Duhon; Edward Miguel; Amos Njuguna; Daniela Pinto Veizaga; Michael W. Walker
  7. The generation gap in direct democracy: age vs. cohort effects By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Maennig, Wolfgang; Mueller, Steffen Q.
  8. Notas sobre las proyecciones de gasto en pensiones del MISSMI By Angel de Fuente (coordinador)
  9. Are Senior Entrepreneurs Happier than Who? The Role of Income and Health By Michael Fritsch; Alina Sorgner; Michael Wyrwich
  10. Demographic Change and Long-Term Economic Growth Path in Asia By Jong-Wha Lee; Eunbi Song
  11. Is working later as sustainable for women as it is for men? By Annie Jolivet; Anne- Françoise Molinié
  12. Does age affect the relation between risk and time preferences? Evidence from a representative sample By Zexuan Wang; Ismaël Rafaï; Marc Willinger

  1. By: Cetin, Sefane (Université catholique de Louvain); Jousten, Alain (University of Liège)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the retirement patterns of married couples in Belgium. To forecast retirement behavior, we use administrative Social Security data from 2003 to 2017 and a discrete choice random utility model. In particular, we concentrate on the spousal bonus of pension payments to comprehend how financial incentives resulting from the social security system's structural design affect both partners' retirement decisions. We simulate the effect of the elimination of the spousal bonus and find that a small portion of women delay their retirement whereas the rest substitute into alternative social security benefits. Our results do not only highlight the significance of cross-program spillovers between various Social Security benefits, but also the heterogeneity in preferences for retirement and asymmetry of retirement behavior between husbands and wives.
    Keywords: old-age labor supply, retirement incentives, spousal bonus, pension reforms
    JEL: D10 H55 J26
    Date: 2023–09
  2. By: Ponthiere, Gregory; Thibault, Emmanuel
    Abstract: The Preston Curve - the increasing relation between income per capita and life expectancy - cannot be observed in countries where old-age dependency is widespread (that is, where long-term care (LTC) spending per capita is high). The absence of the Preston Curve in countries with high old-age dependency can be related to two other stylized facts: (1) the inverted-U relation between LTC spending and life expectancy; (2) the inverted-U relation between LTC spending and preventive health investments. This paper develops a two-period OLG model where survival to the old age depends on preventive health spending chosen by individuals while anticipating (fixed) old-age LTC costs. In that model, anticipated LTC costs are shown to have a non-monotonic effect on preventive health investment, thus rationalizing stylized facts (1) and (2). This framework is shown to provide an explanation for the absence of the Preston Curve in countries where old-age dependency is more acute.
    Keywords: Preston Curve, life expectancy, OLG models, long-term care
    JEL: E13 E21 I15 J14
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Raut, Nilesh; Costa-Font, Joan; van-Houtven, Courtney
    Abstract: Health insurance expansions can exert wellbeing effects on individuals who provide informal care to their loved ones, reducing their experience of depression. This study exploits evidence from the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion (ACA Medicaid) to examine the effects on the mental wellbeing of informal caregivers. Drawing on an event study and a Difference-in-Differences (DID) design we investigate the policy impact of ACA Medicaid using longitudinal evidence (from the Health and Retirement Study, HRS) for low-income individuals aged 64 or below. We find that ACA’s Medicaid reduced depressive symptoms among spousal caregivers, and specifically we estimate that exposure to ACA Medicaid gives rise to 8.2% points (on average, equivalent to 30% decrease) reduction in the feeling of depression and 8.7% points increase in the feeling of happiness (on average, 11% increase). The estimates are robust to various specifications, and we identify several potential driving mechanisms for the findings: reductions in out of -pocket expenses and labor supply and, as expected, increased after Medicaid uptake. The evidence from falsification tests confirms that the estimated effects are likely due to ACA’s Medicaid.
    Keywords: Springer deal
    JEL: I10
    Date: 2023–09–13
  4. By: Erkmen G. Aslim; Shin-Yi Chou; Han Yu
    Abstract: China’s distinctive demographic landscape, early retirement policies, and deeply ingrained gender norms provide a unique backdrop for investigating gender disparities in retirement and subjective well-being. Drawing upon data from the China Family Panel Studies and leveraging the variation around the pensionable age cutoff, we find substantial increases in retirement rates, surging by 19 percentage points for males and 13 percentage points for females in proximity to this age threshold. Notably, retirement manifests significant gender heterogeneity in its influence on life satisfaction, leading to an enhancement among males while not yielding statistically significant improvements among females. Furthermore, this study probes multiple dimensions of subjective well-being and objective health behaviors, laying bare gender disparities in health, behaviors, perceptions of income and social status, and confidence about the future. Males showcase improvements in healthy behaviors, report enhanced self-perceived health, perceive higher relative income and social status, and exude greater confidence about their future. In stark contrast, females show no statistically significant changes along these dimensions. In fact, they tend to engage in health-compromising behaviors, such as increased smoking, and exhibit higher rates of obesity. These findings underscore the imperative of recognizing gender disparities in the consequences of retirement on subjective well-being. They highlight the need for targeted policies aimed at enhancing social and economic opportunities for women, ultimately striving for greater gender equality in the post-retirement phase.
    JEL: I10 I12 I31 J16 J26
    Date: 2023–10
  5. By: Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
    Abstract: Our analysis reveals that ageing accounts for only about 1 percentage point of the GDP growth rate deceleration over the past decade.
    Date: 2023–10
  6. By: Madeline E. Duhon; Edward Miguel; Amos Njuguna; Daniela Pinto Veizaga; Michael W. Walker
    Abstract: The over-60 population in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, tripling between 2020 and 2050. Despite this explosive projected growth, few countries in the region have implemented policies designed to support older populations. Further, little research in economics has specifically examined aging in Sub-Saharan Africa, though many opportunities exist for economists to generate research evidence to inform the design of effective policies in this area. This paper combines insights from a cross-disciplinary review with original data analysis to characterize the challenges and opportunities facing older Sub-Saharan Africans in domains such as health and financial security. Informed by these findings, the paper identifies directions for future economic research and discusses how research evidence can inform the design of health care systems, pensions, and other public support programs to prepare for an aging Africa.
    JEL: H51 H55 J14 O10 O55
    Date: 2023–10
  7. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Maennig, Wolfgang; Mueller, Steffen Q.
    Abstract: We document a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics that is causally related to aging. To this end, we combine different sources of postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. Young voters are more likely to support initiatives that favor their own generation in the present, e.g., a lower retirement age or increased unemployment benefits, or in favor of all generations in the future, e.g., environment protection. To estimate the causal effect of aging on political attitudes, we propose a novel unconstrained panel rank regression approach that separately identifies age and cohort effects. The aging effect on political attitudes is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias.
    Keywords: age; cohort; direct democracy; status quo; referendum; Cohort; Referendum; Age; Direct democracy; Status quo
    JEL: P48 J10 D70 Q50 H40 H30
    Date: 2022–03–28
  8. By: Angel de Fuente (coordinador)
    Abstract: El Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones (MISSMI) ha publicado recientemente un informe con sus proyecciones de la evolución del gasto público en pensiones a medio y largo plazo y de los efectos esperados de las medidas de ingreso recogidas en la reciente reforma de 2021-23. El informe dibuja un panorama optimista sobre las perspectivas financieras de nuestro sistema público de pensiones tras la reforma, que según los cálculos del Ministerio tendrá un efecto prácticamente nulo sobre su saldo presupuestario en el conjunto del período 2022-2050 y dejará el gasto medio durante el mismo período holgadamente por debajo del nivel que activaría la cláusula de salvaguarda del MEI. En este escenario, por tanto, no sería necesario subir las cotizaciones sociales o tomar otras medidas compensatorias.
    Date: 2023–10
  9. By: Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University Rome, Italy, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), and Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany)
    Abstract: We propose an extension of the standard occupational choice model to analyze the life satisfaction of senior entrepreneurs as compared to paid employees and particularly retirees in Germany. The analysis identifies income and health status as main factors that shape the relationship between occupational status and life satisfaction. Senior entrepreneurs enjoy higher levels of life satisfaction than retirees and senior paid employees. This higher life satisfaction is mainly due to their higher income. Physical and mental health play a crucial role in determining both an individual’s occupational status and their overall life satisfaction. We find that senior self-employed report to be healthier compared to other groups of elderly individuals. However, when controlling for health, retirees exhibit an even higher level of life satisfaction compared to their self-employed counterparts. Heterogeneity analysis of various types of senior entrepreneurs and senior paid employees confirms this general pattern. In addition, we find some evidence indicating that senior entrepreneurs may compromise their leisure time, a main asset of retired individuals. Implications for research, policy, and practitioners are discussed.
    Keywords: Senior entrepreneurship, health conditions, well†being, life satisfaction, age
    JEL: L26 I31 J10 D91
    Date: 2023–10–20
  10. By: Jong-Wha Lee; Eunbi Song
    Abstract: This study analyzes Asia’s economic prospects over the next half-century, focusing on demographic changes. To project the GDP and per capita GDP growth rates for the five major Asian countries and the United States (US) until 2070, an endogenous growth model is used where physical and human capital accumulation, technological progress, and substitution between physical capital and labor are important determinants of the long-term growth rate. The simulation results show that while the declining labor force growth and an aging population have a long-term negative impact on economic growth, they will not predetermine the future of Asian economies. Highlighted is the importance of promoting technological innovation as well as investment in physical and human capital to sustain strong growth in Asian economies. China's average annual GDP growth is expected to decline to between 1.5% and 2.4% during 2051–2070, subject to scenarios. China’s higher growth trajectory could approach about 85% of the US PPP-adjusted per capita GDP by 2070. India is projected to surpass the US in PPP-adjusted GDP by 2050 and China by 2070.
    Keywords: Asia, demographic changes, economic growth, human capital, technological progress
    JEL: J11 J24 O33 O41 O53
    Date: 2023–10
  11. By: Annie Jolivet (CRTD - Centre de recherche sur le travail et le développement - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, CREAPT, IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales); Anne- Françoise Molinié (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, CREAPT, CRTD - Centre de recherche sur le travail et le développement - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université)
    Abstract: The working conditions of men and women in the latter part of their working lives have been little studied. Using data from the 2013 and 2016 Working Conditions surveys, a multiple correspondence analysis and then a classification show that senior women and men are unequally distributed among the four less favorable working conditions' configurations. The perceived sustainability of these configurations is also related to their previous work patterns. Logistic regressions reveal that women working in difficult working conditions in 2013 are more often than men still employed and less often retired three years later. Because of their broken and precarious career paths, women are more likely to have to work longer in these work situations in order to achieve a satisfactory pension level.
    Abstract: Les conditions de travail des hommes et des femmes dans la dernière partie de leur vie professionnelle ont été peu étudiées. À partir de données des enquêtes Conditions de travail 2013 et 2016, une analyse des correspondances multiples puis une classification montrent que femmes et hommes seniors se répartissent inégalement entre les quatre configurations de travail moins favorables. La soutenabilité perçue de ces configurations est aussi liée aux parcours antérieurs. Des régressions logistiques révèlent que les femmes qui travaillent dans des configurations de travail difficiles en 2013 sont plus souvent encore en emploi et moins souvent à la retraite trois ans plus tard que les hommes. En raison de parcours heurtés, précaires, les femmes doivent en effet plus fréquemment travailler plus longtemps dans ces situations de travail pour atteindre un niveau de pension satisfaisant.
    Keywords: gender, older workers, working conditions, pathways, geometric data analysis, genre, seniors, conditions de travail, parcours, analyse géométrique des données
    Date: 2021–12–08
  12. By: Zexuan Wang (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ismaël Rafaï (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: We examine the links between age, risk tolerance, and impatience in a large French representative sample. We combine elicited preferences data based on an incentivized web experiment and stated preferences data based on self-reported surveys. Our findings highlight distinct patterns: when considering stated preferences, both risk tolerance and impatience exhibit a decline with age. Higher risk tolerance is associated with higher impatience, and this relationship strengthens with age in the financial domain. In contrast, our analysis of elicited measures uncovers a different dynamic. Specifically, risk tolerance tends to increase with age, while age exhibits no significant influence on impatience. Furthermore, individuals endowed with higher risk tolerance tend to demonstrate lower levels of impatience, irrespective of their age.
    Keywords: age, elicited preferences, risk preferences, stated preferences, time preferences
    Date: 2023

This nep-age issue is ©2023 by Claudia Villosio. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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