nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2023‒09‒11
seven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio, LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Working Pensioners in the Russian Labor Market By Lopatina, Marina (Лопатина, Мария); Lyashok, Viktor (Ляшок, Виктор)
  2. Fiscally Sustainable Pensions in Pakistan By Mahmood Khalid; Naseem Faraz; Aisha Irum
  4. The Welfare Economics of Reference Dependence By Daniel Reck; Arthur Seibold
  5. CEO Stress, Aging, and Death By Borgschulte, Mark; Guenzel, Marius; Liu, Canyao; Malmendier, Ulrike
  6. The Causal Factors Driving the Rise in U.S. Health-services Prices By Feldman, Maria; Pretnar, Nick
  7. Excess mortality in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: regional analysis By Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей); Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей)

  1. By: Lopatina, Marina (Лопатина, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lyashok, Viktor (Ляшок, Виктор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The problem of working pensioners in Russia is becoming more and more relevant in the context of the increase of the retirement age. The situation of this population group differs significantly from other groups on the labor market, as shown by numerous studies. This work focuses on the analysis of changes in this situation by 2022, four years after the start of the pension reform. It shows, on the one hand, an increase in employment in the age groups affected by the reform, and an increase in the length of working careers. A negative consequence of raising the retirement age was an increase in unemployment in older age groups and an increase in age-related wage differentials. On the other hand, the situation of working pensioners remains virtually unchanged compared to earlier studies. The highest proportion of the elderly are in budget-funded sectors, among those with a high level of education, and among specialists with medium and high qualifications. In light of this study, the problem of pension provision for working pensioners in Russia seems unresolved. The possibility of combining pensions and labor income leads to dramatic changes in the financial situation of senior citizens after they reach retirement age and for a short period of such a combination. At the same time, the reform currently underway to raise the retirement age should reduce the gap between retirement age and the age of exit from the labor market.
    Keywords: working pensioners, raising the retirement age, pension reform, labor market exit factors, work continuation factors, employment at older ages, pension provision, pension provision for working pensioners
    JEL: J21 J26
    Date: 2022–11
  2. By: Mahmood Khalid (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Naseem Faraz (Ministry of Finance, Islamabad); Aisha Irum (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: Public sector employment remains an attraction for important reasons: job security and a guaranteed pension (Dixit, 2002). Most of the countries around the world have pension systems, intended to provide income support to those persons who have lost earnings either due to old age or disability due to some incident. Each pension scheme must result into adequate resource provision to meet the basic living standards and ensure that the gap between pre and post retirement earnings is minimum. This would help pensioners live a decent life. As ability to earn significantly reduces in post superannuation age. However, the responsibility for either forced savings or contribution by employers (including civil governments) depends on the type of pension scheme. Some argue that it’s either the sole responsibility of the individual through voluntary savings, the family through family support or the State which can create institutions as per need and sustainability of resources. However due to changing demographics in terms of an ageing population, weaker family support, increased health services and higher expected lives have created a need for policy response to be dynamic.
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy, PENSIONS, Public Economics, Public Finance, Tax Induced
    JEL: E62 H3
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Fedorov, Vitaly (Федоров, Виталий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Problems related to the mechanism of pension indexation in the framework of compulsory pension insurance are discussed in this paper. The analysis has allowed to identify major defects of this mechanism established in accordance with current legislation [1], in particular: the procedure for determining the size of indexation and other key parameters of the insurance pension system is not transparent for its stakeholders (pensioners, employees and employers), the pension system is financially dependent on budget transfers and is not robust enough to withstand external shocks. An indexation procedure has been proposed and this procedure is organically linked to the basic principles of the compulsory pension insurance system and a systematic approach to its planning. Such an approach ensures transparency and unambiguity of indexation procedures for pensions and other parameters related to the pension system. The developed procedure should ensure, in particular, a uniform and sustainable pensions growth in the long run in accordance with the target values, subject to the implementation of an appropriate set of measures to improve the insurance pension system.
    Keywords: pension, insurance pension, pension system, pension indexation, compulsory pension insurance, increase in retirement age, rate of indexation of insurance pension, financial sustainability of pension insurance system
    Date: 2021–09–29
  4. By: Daniel Reck; Arthur Seibold
    Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that individuals often evaluate options relative to a reference point, especially seeking to avoid losses. We undertake the first welfare analysis under reference-dependent preferences. We characterize the welfare impact of changes in reference points and prices, decomposing these into direct and behavioral effects. The sign of direct and behavioral effects depends on the form of reference-dependent payoffs; which of these effects matter for welfare depends on whether reference dependence reflects a bias or a normative preference. We derive sufficient statistics formulas quantifying the social welfare effects of changes in reference points and prices in terms of estimable reduced-form parameters and normative judgments. We illustrate these findings with an empirical application to reference dependence exhibited in German workers’ retirement decisions. We find positive social welfare effects of increasing the Normal Retirement Age, but ambiguous effects of financial incentives to postpone retirement.
    Keywords: reference-dependent preferences, loss aversion, welfare, pension reform
    JEL: D91 D60 H55 J26
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Borgschulte, Mark (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Guenzel, Marius (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania); Liu, Canyao (Yale University); Malmendier, Ulrike (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: We assess the long-term effects of managerial stress on aging and mortality. First, we show that exposure to industry distress shocks during the Great Recession produces visible signs of aging in CEOs. Applying neural-network based machine-learning techniques to pre- and post-distress pictures, we estimate an increase in so-called apparent age by one year. Second, using data on CEOs since the mid-1970s, we estimate a 1.1-year decrease in life expectancy after an industry distress shock, but a two-year increase when anti-takeover laws insulate CEOs from market discipline. The estimated health costs are significant, also relative to other known health risks.
    Keywords: managerial stress, life expectancy, apparent-age estimation, job demands, industry distress, visual machine-learning, corporate governance
    JEL: G34 I12 M12
    Date: 2023–08
  6. By: Feldman, Maria; Pretnar, Nick
    Abstract: We explore several possible avenues which have driven the rise in aggregate U.S. health-services prices since the mid-twentieth century. Our multi-sector general equilibrium model is structural change meets health macro, featuring endogenous population aging, market concentration in the health sector, and differential rates of sectoral technological change. The rise in the relative price of health services is almost exclusively a result of increasing market concentration in the health services sector, as well as slow health-sector TFP growth. Rising health prices have had no impact on life expectancy. Further, our results partially challenge the idea that population aging is responsible for dampening GDP growth rates. While health-sector TFP grows slowly, this is offset by gains to the efficiency of converting health investment to healthy outcomes which leads to increases in expenditure and higher rates of GFP growth.
    Keywords: health services, market concentration, health prices, growth, structural change, aging
    JEL: I1 L1 O3 O4
    Date: 2023–07–06
  7. By: Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult to estimate the direct number of deaths from COVID-19, due to both the methodological difficulties in assessing the causes of death and the choice of a reference point for assessing excess mortality. The existing approaches, such as comparing with the previous year or the average mortality figure over the past few years are associated with numerous problems. To get a more objective assessment of the number of deaths in the absence of a pandemic, it is necessary to use the projected number of deaths considering the age structure of the population. To assess excess mortality, this paper uses the method of constructing a demographic forecast. The baseline scenario against which excess mortality is calculated is estimated using a multi-regional demographic projection. In this paper we are using statistical data from Rosstat and the results of demographic modeling to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We compare the mortality data for 2020 with the projected number of deaths for 2020. The paper provides estimates of excess mortality in the regional context. Estimates are given both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for individual Russian regions. Estimates of excess mortality are also provided for separately for men and women and older age groups.
    Keywords: demography, COVID-19, multi-regional demographic projection, mortality, life expectancy, regional differentiation
    Date: 2021–11–12

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