nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2023‒08‒14
four papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends in Italy 2004-2019 By Margherita Moretti; Timothy Riffe; Angelo Lorenti
  2. Tightening Access to Early Retirement: Who Can Adapt? By Boockmann, Bernhard; Kroczek, Martin; Laub, Natalie
  3. Aging and regional productivity growth in Germany By Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
  4. Actualización del modelo de simulación del Sistema de Pensiones MSSP-OLG: iii) incorporación de “shocks” inesperados al entorno económico By Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín

  1. By: Margherita Moretti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Timothy Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Angelo Lorenti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Italy has witnessed increases in life expectancy and severe population ageing, raising concerns about their impact on population health. Disability status greatly affects the participation of older adults in various aspects of life. This study examines the long-term trend of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in Italy and explores the drivers in terms of disability onset and recovery dynamics, as well as changes in disability-specific mortality. By using IT-SILC longitudinal data (2004-2019), transition probabilities and DFLE between ages 50 and 79 are calculated, and the drivers of DFLE evolution are analysed through decomposition. DFLE among mid-to-older Italians has progressed overall over the last decades, albeit not as favourably as life expectancy. The trends indicate compression of disability in recent years. Changes in disability transitions have the greatest influence on DFLE patterns, while less the changes in disability-specific mortality. The greatest contributions come from increases in the probability of recovery from disability.
    Keywords: Italy, ageing, demographic models, disability
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Boockmann, Bernhard (Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW)); Kroczek, Martin (Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW)); Laub, Natalie (Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW))
    Abstract: We study heterogeneity in the effects of two pension reforms in Germany that closed pathways into early retirement: the abolition of an old-age pension scheme for women and the abolition of a pension after unemployment or part-time work. We focus on heterogeneity with respect to several occupational characteristics. Both reforms had significant effects on individual employment states, and in both cases the effects differ significantly by occupation. The positive effect on employment is smaller in occupations with higher job strain and, in case of the old-age pension for women, the effect on unemployment is larger. The effects also differ by occupational tasks, PC use and the introduction of new technologies.
    Keywords: pension reforms, effect heterogeneity, occupational demands, occupational tasks
    JEL: J18 J22 J26
    Date: 2023–07
  3. By: Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of aging on regional productivity growth, the mechanisms and the strength of which are not well-understood. We focus on two different manifestations of population aging—workforce aging and an increasing share of retirees—and investigate channels through which aging may impact on regional productivity growth for a panel of German counties 2000–2019. We find that workforce aging is more negatively associated with productivity growth in urban than in nonurban regions. A likely reason is that aging is detrimental to innovative and knowledge-intensive activities, which are heavily concentrated in cities. We also find a negative association between the share of the retired population and productivity growth in regions with a small household services sector. A likely reason is that older people’s disproportionate demand for local household services (including health care, recreation) requires a re-allocation of resources from more productive manufacturing or business services to less productive household services. Regions specialized more in highly productive industries have more to lose in this process.
    Keywords: Workforce aging, Population aging, Productivity growth, Regional analysis, Germany
    JEL: E24 J11 J24 J26 R11
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín
    Abstract: Este documento cierra la serie de tres artículos dedicada a la actualización del modelo MSSP-OLG del sistema de pensiones español. En él se discute la metodología que permite tratar reformas de pensiones (u otros cambios en el entorno económico) como shocks inesperados. Esta metodología se aplica seguidamente para analizar los resultados de la eliminación del IRP y del FS en 2021, comparándolos con los obtenidos con técnicas estáticas como las utilizadas previamente en de la Fuente et al. (2019). El documento también discute la actualización de los procesos exógenos del modelo.
    Date: 2023–07

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