nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2023‒05‒08
fifteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Occupations Shape Retirement across Countries By Philip Sauré; Arthur Seibold; Elizaveta Smorodenkova; Hosny Zoabi
  2. Savings after retirement By Eric French; Rory McGee; John Bailey Jones
  3. Impact of Retirement on Health: Evidence from 35 Countries By Koryu Sato; Haruko Noguchi
  4. Panorama fiscal de las pensiones en Colombia By Julián A. Parra-Polanía; Jorge Llano; Santiago León; Iván Leonardo Urrea Rios
  5. The effect of pension wealth on employment By Peter Haan; Sebastian Becker; Hermann Buslei; Johannes Geyer
  6. Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes By Gerard Domènech-Arumí; Silvia Vannutelli
  7. Trust in Pension Funds, Or the Importance of Being Financially Sound By van Dalen, Hendrik Peter; Henkens, K.
  8. Why Do Some Small Businesses Offer Retirement Plans? By Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell
  9. El ingreso mínimo garantizado, las transferencias universales para la infancia y las personas mayores y otras opciones para brindar protección de ingresos By Farías, Consuelo; Santos García, Raquel; De Wispelaere, Jurgen
  10. How Does Local Cost-of-Living Affect Retirement? By Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein
  11. How Do Unpaid Student Loans Impact Social Security Benefits? By Gal Wettstein; Siyan Liu
  12. AGING IN STYLE: Seniority and Sentiment in Scholarly Writing By Lea-Rachel Kosnik; Daniel S. Hamermesh
  13. The Average Uneven Mortality index: Building on the "e-dagger" measure of lifespan inequality By Bonetti, Marco; Basellini, Ugofilippo; NIGRI, ANDREA
  14. Prestaciones familiares y cuidados de larga duración: lecciones de Europa y apuestas estratégicas para un Estado de bienestar en América Latina By Rossel, Cecilia
  15. Not Just for Kids: Child and Dependent Care Credit Benefits for Adult Care By Gabrielle Pepin; Yulya Truskinovsky

  1. By: Philip Sauré; Arthur Seibold; Elizaveta Smorodenkova; Hosny Zoabi
    Abstract: We study how occupations shape individual and aggregate retirement behavior. First, we document large differences in individual retirement ages across occupations in U.S. data. We then show that retirement behavior among European workers is strongly correlated with U.S. occupational retirement ages, indicating an inherent association between occupations and retirement that is present across institutional settings. Finally, we find that occupational composition is highly predictive of aggregate retirement behavior across 45 countries. Our findings suggest that events affecting occupational structure, such as skill-biased technological change or international trade, have consequences for aggregate retirement behavior and social security systems.
    Keywords: retirement, occupational distribution, cross-country analysis
    JEL: E24 H55 J14 J24 J26 J82
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rory McGee (Institute for Fiscal Studies); John Bailey Jones (Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
    Date: 2022–12–05
  3. By: Koryu Sato (Department of Social Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and School of Public Health, Kyoto University); Haruko Noguchi (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: This study aimed to explore the impact of retirement on health through the application of a fixed effects instrumental variable model to harmonized longitudinal data obtained from 35 countries. Women exhibited improved cognitive function, physical independence, and self-rated health after retirement. Consistently, retirement was associated with reduced physical inactivity and smoking among women, which was not observed among men. Sex differences in post-retirement health behaviors may induce heterogeneous effects on health. Given the current global trend of increasing state pension age, the promotion of healthy behaviors could mitigate potential adverse effects of delayed retirement on health.
    JEL: I10 J26 C26
    Date: 2023–04
  4. By: Julián A. Parra-Polanía; Jorge Llano; Santiago León; Iván Leonardo Urrea Rios
    Abstract: En este documento extendemos el modelo económico usado en Parra et al. (2020) con el fin de incorporar dos grupos significativos que no fueron incluidos en el análisis original: los retirados cuya pensión es igual al salario mínimo y los individuos que no cumplen requisitos de pensión y, por tanto, obtienen una devolución de dinero (en cualquiera de los dos regímenes principales). Los resultados muestran un panorama similar al expuesto por Parra et al. (2020): si continúa en su estado actual, el sistema pensional colombiano se enfrentará en las próximas décadas a un aumento sustancial de la carga fiscal. Esta situación es principalmente causada por los grandes subsidios otorgados en el régimen de reparto y el deterioro de la capacidad de pago de ese régimen como resultado del envejecimiento poblacional. En ausencia de otras modificaciones en el sistema pensional, dos cambios socialmente deseables producirían un incremento considerable de la carga fiscal del mismo: i) el aumento de la cobertura pensional, (como resultado por ejemplo de un aumento en la formalidad laboral), y ii) el reconocimiento de los retornos reales a quienes no cumplen requisitos de pensión en el régimen de reparto. **** ABSTRACT: In this paper we extend the economic model used in Parra et al. (2020) to incorporate two significant groups that were not included in the original analysis: people who are retired with pension equivalent to the minimum wage and those who do not fulfill pension requirements and therefore get a refund of their contributions (in either of the two main retirement schemes). Our results show a similar outlook to that described by Parra et al. (2020): if the Colombian pension system remains in its current state, it will face a substantial increase in the tax burden in the next decades, mainly due to the large subsidies granted in the pay-as-you-go scheme and the deterioration of the payment capacity of this scheme due to population aging. In the absence of other modifications in the pension system, two socially desirable changes would generate an important increment of its fiscal burden: i) an increase of pension coverage (for instance as a result of an increase of formal employment) and ii) the recognition of real returns to those who do not meet pension requirements in the pay-as-you-go scheme.
    Keywords: pensiones, análisis macroeconómico, panorama fiscal, régimen de reparto, régimen de capitalización, pensions, macroeconomic analysis, fiscal outlook, PAYG scheme, Fully Funded scheme.
    JEL: H55 H20 J26 J11 C68
    Date: 2023–04
  5. By: Peter Haan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sebastian Becker; Hermann Buslei; Johannes Geyer
    Date: 2023–01–03
  6. By: Gerard Domènech-Arumí; Silvia Vannutelli
    Abstract: We exploit an unanticipated labor market reform to estimate the effects of procyclical changes in long-term unemployment assistance (UA). In July 2012, Spain raised the minimum age to receive unlimited-duration UA from 52 to 55. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document that shorter benefits caused (i) shorter non-employment duration, especially among younger workers; (ii) higher labor force exit and other programs' take-up, especially among older workers; (iii) lower wages upon re-employment. The reform induced moderate government savings. Our resultshighlight the importance of considering the interplay with labor market conditions when designing long-term beneffit schedules that affect workers close to retirement.
    Date: 2023–04
  7. By: van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Henkens, K. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell
    Abstract: At any given time, only about half of private sector workers in the United States are covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan, and few workers save without one. As a result, many households end up with no retirement saving and entirely dependent on Social Security, while others move in and out of coverage throughout their careers and end up with only modest balances in a 401(k) account. Numerous studies have shown that offering a retirement plan is closely related to firm size; firms with fewer than 100 employees are much less likely to offer a plan than larger firms. As a result, observers tend to dismiss small firms as a source for future growth in coverage. In fact, though, a meaningful share of small businesses do offer retirement plans. This brief, which is based on a recent study, attempts to identify the characteristics of sponsoring firms and their employees to determine which small businesses may be more likely to offer a retirement plan in the future. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section describes the limited information available from data sets that focus on the firms. The second section summarizes the information about firm coverage that can be gleaned from nationally representative surveys of employees. The third section explores why many small firms do not provide coverage. Surveys suggest that financial uncertainty and lack of employee interest are real hurdles. Respondents also suggest that plans are too costly, but companies are often either poorly informed or misinformed about costs. The final section offers a two-step agenda. First, the nature of plan costs should be clarified and publicized. Second, the most comprehensive survey dates from 1998, so a new survey would be invaluable.
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Farías, Consuelo; Santos García, Raquel; De Wispelaere, Jurgen
    Date: 2023–03–28
  10. By: Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein
    Abstract: Households across the United States face very different cost-of-living, largely due to variations in housing expenses. Over the last 50 years, house prices have risen fastest in already expensive areas. To attract workers despite high prices, these local labor markets offer more wages and/or fringe benefits. Wage levels directly affect retirement security through Social Security benefits, which, by design, replace a higher share of pre-retirement earnings for workers at the bottom of the national earnings distribution, not taking local price levels into account. As a result, households in high-cost areas could face a replacement-rate penalty if their employers offer higher wages. The questions are: 1) How large is this penalty in practice? and 2) Do workers respond to the penalty by adjusting their behavior? This brief, based on a recent paper, uses the Health and Retirement Study to document the relationship between local cost-of-living – captured by housing prices – and Social Security replacement rates. It then explores whether households in high-cost areas compensate for lower replacement rates by responding in three possible ways: saving more during their working years; retiring later; and/or moving to a lower-cost area when they retire. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on the link between local cost-of-living and Social Security replacement rates. The second section describes the data and methodology. The third section presents results for the association between local cost-of-living, replacement rates, and household behavior. The final section concludes that Social Security replacement rates are lower in moreexpensive areas, but the gap is somewhat smaller than anticipated because earnings have only partially kept up with the cost of financing a house. In response to the gap that does exist, households – especially the more educated – save more; and some homeowners move after retirement.
    Date: 2022–12
  11. By: Gal Wettstein; Siyan Liu
    Abstract: Student debt has been rising dramatically over the past few decades, including among older adults. While the overall magnitude of student debt held by those ages 65 and over is not large, the debt burden in this group has been growing rapidly. At the same time, their default rates have also been rising. This trend is a particular concern because retirees with delinquent student loans can have part of their Social Security benefits withheld to pay for the loans. Such withholding may disproportionately harm disadvantaged groups as they are more likely to have delinquent loans. This brief, based on a recent study, addresses two key questions: 1) What is the impact of student debt on current and future retirees’ financial security? and 2) How would it change under the Biden administration’s recently proposed debt relief plan? The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on older Americans with student debt and on the Biden administration plan. The second section describes the data and methodology for the analysis. The third section presents the results. The final section concludes that, while the f inancial consequences of student debt delinquency are relatively small for current Social Security beneficiaries, such debt is concentrated among disadvantaged groups and it may hit future beneficiaries harder. As expected, the proposed debt relief plan would substantially reduce student debt for all, while benefiting Black and Hispanic borrowers the most.
    Date: 2023–01
  12. By: Lea-Rachel Kosnik; Daniel S. Hamermesh
    Abstract: The scholarly impact of academic research matters for academic promotions, influence, relevance to public policy, and others. Focusing on writing style in top-level professional journals, we examine how it changes with age, and how stylistic differences and age affect impact. As top-level scholars age, their writing style increasingly differs from others’. The impact (measured by citations) of each contribution decreases, due to the direct effect of age and the much smaller indirect effects through style. Non-native English-speakers write in different styles from others, in ways that reduce the impact of their research. Nobel laureates’ scholarly writing evinces less certainty about the conclusions of their research than that of other highly productive scholars.
    JEL: A14 B41
    Date: 2023–04
  13. By: Bonetti, Marco; Basellini, Ugofilippo; NIGRI, ANDREA
    Abstract: In recent years, lifespan inequality has become an important indicator of population health, alongside more established longevity measures. Uncovering the statistical properties of lifespan inequality measures can provide novel insights on the study of mortality developments. We revisit the "e-dagger" measure of lifespan inequality, introduced in Vaupel and Canudas-Romo (2003). We note that, conditioning on surviving at least until age a, e-dagger(a) is equal to the covariance between the conditional lifespan random variable Ta and its transformation through its own cumulative hazard function (hence generalizing a result first noted in Schmertmann, 2020). We then derive an upper bound for e-dagger(a). Leveraging this result, we introduce the "Average Uneven Mortality" (AUM) index, a novel relative mortality index that can be used to analyze mortality patterns. We discuss some general features of the index, including its relationship with a constant ("even") force of mortality, and we study how it changes over time. The use of the AUM index is illustrated through an application to observed period and cohort death rates as well as to period life-table death rates from the Human Mortality Database. We explore the behavior of the index across age and over time, and we study its relationship with life expectancy. The AUM index at birth declined over time until the 1950s, when it reverted its trend. The index generally increases over age and reduces with increasing values of life expectancy, with differences between the period and cohort perspectives. We elaborate on Vaupel and Canudas-Romo’s e-dagger measure, deriving its upper bound. We exploit this result to introduce a novel mortality indicator, which enlarges the toolbox of available methods for the study of mortality dynamics. We also develop some new routines to compute e-dagger(a) and σ_Ta from death rates, and show that they have higher precision when compared to conventional and available functions, particularly for calculations involving older ages.
    Date: 2023–04–06
  14. By: Rossel, Cecilia
    Abstract: En un contexto donde ciertos problemas estructurales como la pobreza, la desigualdad y la informalidad se hacen evidentes en América Latina y el Caribe, y tras los devastadores impactos sociales de la pandemia de enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19), los sistemas de protección social son, por una parte, reflejo de grandes deficiencias y desigualdades, y por la otra, una oportunidad para reconsiderar el papel del Estado y abordar la recuperación de las múltiples crisis con igualdad. Las familias con niñas, niños y adolescentes de la región se enfrentan a importantes brechas de cobertura en materia de prestaciones familiares, mientras que el acelerado proceso de envejecimiento vuelve urgente poner en marcha políticas equitativas de cuidado de larga duración para personas mayores. En este documento se revisan experiencias y aprendizajes derivados de las políticas implementadas en países europeos y se identifican desafíos y propuestas para la región respecto de la universalización de sistemas de protección social, donde el punto de partida para el desarrollo de Estados de bienestar esté en las familias con niños, niñas y adolescentes y en las personas mayores.
    Date: 2023–04–05
  15. By: Gabrielle Pepin (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Yulya Truskinovsky (Wayne State University)
    Abstract: The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) allows households to receive tax credits for certain expenses associated with the care of a spouse or adult dependent who is incapable of self care, but very few childless households claim the credit. We examine the value of the CDCC for qualifying households caring for adults. We find that, as of 2016, more than 10 percent of individuals aged 50 to 65 had a coresident spouse or parent likely to be a qualifying individual for the CDCC. We document how state and federal CDCC benefits decrease post-tax costs of typical caregiving services, such as hiring a home health aide, across states. We find that a temporary expansion during 2021 led to substantial decreases in post-tax care costs but generated considerable differences in benefits across households with spouse and nonspouse qualifying individuals. We discuss expected effects on taxpayers’ behavior of permanently expanding the CDCC and find that making the credit refundable would nearly double the number of eligible spousal caregivers aged 50 to 65, with eligibility rates increasing substantially among female, nonwhite, and low-income caregivers.
    Keywords: Adult care, Child and Dependent Care Credit, American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, participation, eligibility
    JEL: H24 J14
    Date: 2023–03

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