|
on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Jose Valderrama; Javier Olivera |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of Peru’s social pension programme Pension 65 on mortality. The programme provides a lifetime pension equivalent to 32 US dollars per month to individuals aged 65 and older who do not have other pensions and are officially classified as extreme poor. The analysis relies on survey data obtained at the baseline, which we match to mortality records for the period 2012 to 2019. We exploit the discontinuity around the welfare index used by the programme to determine eligibility, and estimate intention-to-treat effects in a regression discontinuity setting. We find that after seven years, the programme can reduce mortality among eligible people by about 11.4 percentage points. The programme could also increase the life expectancy of eligible people by one year. The results and back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the policy is cost effective. |
| Keywords: | non-contributory pensions; mortality; regression discontinuity; old-age poverty |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J14 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-05&r=age |
| By: | Moghadam, Hamed Markazi; Puhani, Patrick A.; Tyrowicz, Joanna |
| Abstract: | To determine how wives' and husbands' retirement options affect their spouses' (and their own) labour supply decisions, we exploit (early) retirement cutoffs by way of a regression discontinuity design. Several German pension reforms since the early 1990s have gradually raised women's retirement age from 60 to 65, but also increased ages for several early retirement pathways affecting both sexes. We use German Socio-Economic Panel data for a sample of couples aged 50 to 69 whose retirement eligibility occurred (i) prior to the reforms, (ii) during the transition years, and (iii) after the major set of reforms. We find that, prior to the reforms, when several retirement options were available to both husbands and wives, both react almost symmetrically to their spouse reaching an early retirement age, that is both husband and wife decrease their labour supply by about 5 percentage points when the spouse reaches age 60). This speaks in favour of leisure complementarities. However, after the set of reforms, when retiring early was much more difficult, we find no more significant labour supply reaction to the spouse reaching a retirement age, whereas reaching one's own retirement age still triggers a significant reaction in labour supply. Our results may explain some of the diverse findings in the literature on asymmetric reactions between husbands and wives to their spouse reaching a retirement age: such reactions may in large parts depend on how flexibly workers are able to retire. |
| Keywords: | retirement coordination, labour market participation, household decisions, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1257&r=age |
| By: | Patrick A. Puhani (Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultaet Leibniz Universität Hannover; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)); Hamed Moghadam (Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultaet Leibniz Universität Hannover); Joanna Tyrowicz (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); University of Warsaw; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | To determine how wives' and husbands' retirement options affect their spouses' (and their own) labor supply decisions, we exploit (early) retirement cutoffs by way of a regression discontinuity design. Several German pension reforms since the early 1990s have gradually raised women’s retirement age from 60 to 65, but also increased ages for several early retirement pathways affecting both sexes. We use German Socio-Economic Panel data for a sample of couples aged 50 to 69 whose retirement eligibility occurred (i) prior to the reforms, (ii) during the transition years, and (iii) after the major set of reforms. We find that, prior to the reforms, when several retirement options were available to both husbands and wives, both react almost symmetrically to their spouse reaching an early retirement age, that is both husband and wife decrease their labor supply by about 5 percentage points when the spouse reaches age 60). This speaks in favor of leisure complementarities. However, after the set of reforms, when retiring early was much more difficult, we find no more significant labor supply reaction to the spouse reaching a retirement age, whereas reaching one’s own retirement age still triggers a significant reaction in labor supply. Our results may explain some of the diverse findings in the literature on asymmetric reactions between husbands and wives to their spouse reaching a retirement age: such reactions may in large parts depend on how flexibly workers are able to retire. |
| Keywords: | retirement coordination; labor market participation; regression discontinuity design. |
| JEL: | J22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:78&r=age |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen |
| Abstract: | Within the frame of the Nordic welfare model, pension system design has taken very different routes. While the overall aims in terms of distribution and replacement rates are similar, the division of labour between defined benefit and contribution as well as pay-as-you-go versus funded schemes differs significantly. The main characteristics of the pension systems in the Nordic countries are presented, and outcomes relating to pension adequacy in terms of poverty and replacement rates are discussed. Specific design issues related to achieving distributional goals and financial robustness via automatic adjustment mechanisms are highlighted. Finally, the overall financial sustainability of pension systems and the macroeconomic implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | pension systems, pension adequacy, fiscal sustainability, distribution, insurance, incentives |
| JEL: | G51 H60 J26 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10321&r=age |
| By: | Niklas Gohl |
| Abstract: | Leveraging two cohort-specific pension reforms, this paper estimates the forward-looking effects of an exogenous increase in the working horizon on (un)employment behaviour for individuals with a long remaining statutory working life. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches based on administrative and survey data, I show that a longer legal working horizon increases individuals’ subjective expectations about the length of their work life, raises the probability of employment, decreases the probability of unemployment, and increases the intensity of job search among the unemployed. Heterogeneity analyses show that the demonstrated employment effects are strongest for women and in occupations with comparatively low physical intensity, i.e., occupations that can be performed at older ages. |
| Keywords: | retirement policies, employment, DiD |
| JEL: | J24 J26 H21 |
| Date: | 2023–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0013&r=age |
| By: | Nassif, Gabriella; Dakkak, Sabine |
| Abstract: | The current socioeconomic and political crises plaguing Lebanon have exacerbated the ongoing care crisis, in particular for care workers and elderly care recipients. Over the past decade, non Arab migrant domestic workers have been, alongside family members, primarily responsible for providing privatized, in-home care for ageing Lebanese. This care, ranging from cooking and cleaning to administering medicines and providing care for people with disabilities, exists in the stark absence of substantive state-provided services for a rapidly ageing population. Under the pressures of the current economic crisis, however, the arrangements of this form of commodified care have come under particular strain, causing both care workers and care recipients to suffer. To better understand elderly care needs in Lebanon amidst the current, multi-faceted crisis, this report foregrounds the personal experiences and needs of both care workers, primarily non-Arab migrant domestic workers, and elderly care employers and recipients. Findings suggest that the most acute care needs for elderly Lebanese include long-term healthcare, emotional companionship, and domestic labor, at an affordable price. Workers highlighted the overwhelming nature of elderly work, their need for workplace support, and ultimately, their demands for a better legislative framework to protect them as migrant workers. |
| Keywords: | LEBANON; ASIA; crises; care work; migrant labour; domestic work; elderly; ageing; services; economic crises; healthcare; prices; legislation; women elderly care; women migrants; |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2176&r=age |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Philippe De Donder; Franca Glenzer; Minjoon Lee; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | In Canada, as in the United States, a large share of COVID deaths during the first wave occurred in nursing homes. As a result, the pandemic shed light on lax infection control practices and lack of staff in some nursing homes. In both countries, the extensive media coverage of these issues may have a lasting impact on older individuals’ choices of long-term care. That is, more people might decide to receive care in their own homes instead of entering a nursing home, even when COVID is no longer as serious a threat. If so, a related question is how such home care would be financed, given that both countries more readily subsidize nursing home care compared to home services. This brief, adapted from a recent study, assesses the reaction of Canadians to nursing homes in the wake of COVID. This assessment is based on an online survey of a representative sample of residents in Ontario and Québec who are ages 50-69. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on nursing homes and COVID. The second section summarizes the survey methodology. The third section presents the results, which reveal that more than 70 percent of respondents are less inclined to enter a nursing home than before the pandemic; about one-quarter are willing to save more for home care services; and the vast majority favor increased government subsidies for home care, even if financed by higher taxes. The final section concludes that, given the broad similarities between Canada and the United States, the main results are likely applicable to older Americans as well. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2022-19&r=age |
| By: | Pierre-Carl Michaud; Pascal St-Amour |
| Abstract: | Annuities, long-term care insurance and reverse mortgages remain unpopular to manage longevity, medical and housing price risks after retirement. We analyze low demand using a life-cycle model structurally estimated with a unique stated-preference survey experiment of Canadian households. Low risk aversion, substitution between housing and consumption and low marginal utility when in poor health explain most of the reduced demand. Bequests motives are found to be a luxury good and play a limited role. The remaining disinterest is explained by information frictions and behavioural status-quo biases. We find evidence of strong spousal co-insurance motives motivating LTCI and of responsiveness to bundling with a near doubling of demand for annuities when reverse mortgages can be used to annuitize, instead of consuming home equity. Les rentes, l'assurance soins de longue durée (ASLD) et les prêts hypothécaires inversés restent impopulaires pour gérer les risques de longévité, les risques médicaux et les risques liés au prix du logement après la retraite. Nous analysons la faible demande à l'aide d'un modèle de cycle de vie estimé de manière structurelle avec une expérience par enquête unique de préférences déclarées auprès de ménages canadiens. Une faible aversion pour le risque, la substitution entre le logement et la consommation et une faible utilité marginale en cas de mauvaise santé expliquent principalement la faible demande. Les motifs de legs s'avèrent être un bien de luxe et ne jouent qu'un rôle limité. Le désintérêt restant s'explique par des frictions informationnelles et des biais comportementaux (inertie). Nous trouvons des preuves de l'existence d'une forte motivation de coassurance entre conjoints, qui motive l'achat d'ASLD; et de réactivité à l'offre groupée, avec un quasi-doublement de la demande de rentes lorsque les prêts hypothécaires inversés peuvent être utilisés pour constituer des rentes, au lieu de consommer la valeur nette du logement. |
| Keywords: | retirement wealth, insurance, health risk, housing risk, patrimoine retraite, assurance, risque santé, risque logement |
| JEL: | J14 G52 G53 |
| Date: | 2023–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2023s-07&r=age |
| By: | Marisa Shenk; Amal Harrati; Bernadette Hicks; Ana Quiñones |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the experiences of older adults with disabling conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic using data from the 2020 Health and Retirement Study. It documents the negative health, work, and financial experiences of older adults by disability status, race, and ethnicity. It also explores the intersectionality of race and ethnicity with disability and the role of contextual factors affecting the environments in which people live (e.g., health and economic conditions) using county- and state-level data. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2022-17&r=age |
| By: | Kenneth Tsz Hin Ng; Wing Fung Chong |
| Abstract: | Optimal investment strategies of an individual worker during the accumulation phase in the defined contribution pension scheme have been well studied in the literature. Most of them adopted the classical backward model and approach, but any pre-specifications of retirement time, preferences, and market environment models do not often hold in such a prolonged horizon of the pension scheme. Pre-commitment to ensure the time-consistency of an optimal investment strategy derived from the backward model and approach leads the supposedly optimal strategy to be sub-optimal in the actual realizations. This paper revisits the optimal investment problem for the worker during the accumulation phase in the defined contribution pension scheme, via the forward preferences which resolve the pre-specification issues in the backward model and approach. Stochastic partial differential equation representation for the worker's forward preferences is illustrated. This paper constructs two of the forward utility preferences and solves the corresponding optimal investment strategies, in the cases of initial power and exponential utility functions. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08462&r=age |
| By: | Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Health and Retirement Study to explore how local cost-of-living affects Social Security replacement rates and household behavior. In theory, labor markets with high cost-of-living also offer more compensation. If this compensating differential is paid in wages, rather than benefits, it reduces the share of earnings replaced by Social Security due to the progressive benefit structure. This paper examines how important the cost-of-living penalty is, in practice, and whether it impacts households’ saving or labor supply. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2022-15&r=age |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Siyan Liu; Laura D. Quinby |
| Abstract: | Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 prohibits sex discrimination (including pregnancy, sexual orientation, and gender identity) in any education program or activity receiving federal financial assistance. In the 50 years since the enactment of Title IX, women have made enormous strides in terms of educational attainment, work, and earnings. Although a wage gap by gender persists, women’s progress in the workforce has clearly enhanced their economic status as individuals. On the other hand, women have chosen to spend less of their adult life married, and the decision to eschew the potential support of a spouse could have put them more at risk economically. This brief, based on a recent study, uses the Health and Retirement Study to document the economic gains and the changing demographic profiles of women and then assesses the extent to which they are prepared for retirement. Since the trends in both economic gains and marriage have differed for Black and White women, the results are reported by race as well as for all women. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section summarizes the progress women have made in terms of education, labor force participation, and earnings. The second section describes the decline in marriage over the last 50 years. The third section describes the changes in wealth accumulation and retirement preparedness of women. The final section concludes that women have gained in educational attainment, work force activity, and earnings, and this progress has translated into wealth. Moreover, women do not appear to have undone their economic gains since Title IX’s passage by opting to spend more time on their own – those who spend the majority of their adult life single are as well prepared for retirement as married couples. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2022-15&r=age |
| By: | Anqi Chen; Siyan Liu; Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | As COVID-19 shut down the economy in early 2020, the press asked repeatedly how the economic turmoil – combined with a health crisis and a plunge in the stock market – would affect older workers. At that time, the natural inclination was to draw similarities to how older workers responded in the Great Recession. Specifically, despite a desire to work longer to replenish lost savings, the lack of available jobs forced many to claim Social Security benefits as soon as they were eligible – at 62. Of course, the COVID experience turned out to be very different than the Great Recession. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially plunged by 34 percent, it soon recovered and continued to increase. The economy also quickly bottomed out, and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defined it as the shortest recession in history. And unprecedented government support for the unemployed made looking for a job much more attractive than claiming Social Security benefits. While the contours of the two recessions differ sharply, older workers continued to retire and claim Social Security. The question explored in this brief, which is based on a recent study, is the relative impacts of the COVID Recession and the Great Recession on the claiming behavior of different groups.1 Specifically, the analysis, using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), compares how the claiming pattern changed in the recession years 2008-2010 from the expansion years 2004-2006 with how the pattern changed in the recession year 2020 from the expansion years 2016-2018. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on the Great Recession and the COVID Recession and summarizes what research to date reveals about the basic contours of the two recessions. The second section describes the data for the current analysis and the methodology. The third section summarizes the results of the two recessions on the claiming behavior of different groups. The final section concludes with three findings. The COVID Recession did not increase the relative likelihoods of early claiming among those in poor health. This result is surprising, but consistent with the findings for the Great Recession. The other two findings were in stark contrast to what happened during the Great Recession. First, during the COVID Recession, the booming stock market increased the relative likelihood of early claiming among those with retirement assets, whereas during the Great Recession workers remained in the labor market to replenish depleted balances. Second, generous unemployment insurance (UI) benefits reduced early claiming among workers in the lowest two earnings terciles, whereas little change was evident during the Great Recession. In terms of the overall impact, the competing effects of the COVID Recession resulted in a slight decline in early claiming as a result of the COVID Recession, whereas the percentage claiming early rose notably during the Great Recession. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2022-18&r=age |
| By: | Rong Fu (Faculty of Commerce, Waseda University); Dung Le (KGRI, Keio University); Yoko Ibuka (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how changes in formal care availability affect informal caregivers f well-being, adding to the heated discussion on what constitutes an appropriate level of formal care that is both sustainable and adequate. We leverage a reform of Japan fs public long-term care insurance, which contracted formal care benefits among a group of recipients. Using a difference-in-difference approach with fixed effects to a nationally representative sample of informal caregivers, we examine the aggregated impacts of the reform and how they evolve over time. We find that the reform had a negative impact on caregivers f well-being, reflected in decreased mobility and stability, and increased stress from financial strains and domestic work. The negative impact was particularly pronounced among female caregivers, while male caregivers experienced an improvement in mental health, particularly those with higher income levels. The reform also led to an increased likelihood of regular caregiving, which may contribute to the well-being decline. Additionally, we find that the reform had negative effects on the well-being of care recipients, indicating that reducing formal care services is unlikely to have any positive impact on either the caregivers or the recipients. The study highlights the importance of considering the wellbeing of both caregivers and care recipients when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of reducing formal care availability and recommends policies that protect female caregivers against health and financial issues. |
| Keywords: | formal long-term care, informal caregivers, well-being, difference-in-difference, event study |
| JEL: | I14 I18 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2023-005&r=age |
| By: | Liliane Bonnal (CRIEF - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - Université de Poitiers, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Greivis Buitrago Gámez (CRIEF - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - Université de Poitiers); Pascal Favard (IRJI - Institut de recherche juridique interdisciplinaire - UT - Université de Tours); Cornel Oros (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CRIEF - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | The study analyses unintentional home and leisure injuries (HLIs) for the French senior population using data from the 2012 wave of the French health, health care and insurance survey. The results of our logit models reveal that health status, age, and risky attitudes are the main characteristics associated with HLIs for older people. When the severity of injuries is taken into consideration, the highest exposure to HLIs concerns the oldest seniors, aged 85 years old or older, with deteriorated health. This result is confirmed in the case of severe indoor HLIs, whereas for severe outdoor injuries, the most vulnerable individuals seem to be younger seniors, that is, 75–79 years old. Moreover, our findings suggest that HLIs, and mainly severe home HLIs, generate a short-term influence on a person's health. |
| Keywords: | Health problems, Home and leisure injuries, Logit models, Olderpeople |
| Date: | 2022–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03858140&r=age |
| By: | Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Roos, Henrik (Lantmateriet) |
| Abstract: | The value of a property tends to decrease over time as it ages, resulting in a reduced ability to generate the same value. Property depreciation is a multifaceted concept that encompasses both technical and economic aspects. The economic life of a property is used to determine its effective age. This study aims to determine the effective age of a selected property by analysing various data related to its condition, including information on maintenance and reinvestment operations. Additionally, the research seeks to investigate whether the year of construction or price level has an impact on the property's effective age. We collected specific data from property owners on the frequency of various maintenance and reinvestment operations, both internal and external, such as the roof, foundation, heating, and kitchen. Our database consists of nearly 10, 000 houses in Sweden sold between the beginning of 2021 and 2022 that are over 30 years old. Our findings demonstrate that even for older properties, there can be a significant decline in value due to ageing. We also observe that property owners' actions, such as maintenance and reinvestments, can affect age-related value decline. By implementing appropriate measures to reduce the property's effective age, the decline in value due to ageing can be mitigated. Hence, policymakers could consider developing policies and incentives to encourage property owners to invest in maintenance and reinvestment measures that can mitigate the effects of ageing on property value. |
| Keywords: | depreciation; age-related decrease in value; maintenance; effective age; Sweden |
| JEL: | D46 G51 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2023_001&r=age |
| By: | Arandjelović, Ognjen |
| Abstract: | In response to the growing social discontent regarding what is perceived as generational injustice, due to younger generations of voters facing long-term negative consequences from issues disproportionately decided by the votes of older generations of voters, there have been suggestions to introduce an upper age voting threshold. These have been all but universally dismissed as offensive and contrary to basic democratic values. In the present article, I show that the idea is in fact entirely consonant with present-day democratic practices and far from without a precedent. Hence, I describe how the aforementioned generational injustice can be rectified using a simple vote-weighting scheme which is easy to implement and interpret. Lastly, I discuss the societal effects that this alteration of the voting system would have on the distribution of the origins of political power. |
| Date: | 2023–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qkg4f&r=age |
| By: | Ramiro Gamboa Rivera (Investigador Invitado de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | El presente estudio describe el funcionamiento actual del sistema de jubilación en Bolivia y plantea, principalmente, escenarios relativos a las prestaciones de la vejez; vale decir, a los montos de pensión que podrían obtener los productores quinueros en función a la frecuencia de sus aportes, a los montos de cotización que realicen y a los requisitos que cumplan para este efecto. Para una adecuada comprensión del tema se expone un breve resumen histórico del tránsito que tuvo la reforma de pensiones en Bolivia, continuando con una descripción del sistema actual y las características de las prestaciones (costos, modalidades de pago, beneficios, beneficiarios, coberturas, casos de muerte y discapacidad etc., tanto para trabajadores dependientes como independientes). Posteriormente, se describe la instrumentación que el gobierno realiza para las cotizaciones y los montos de pensión, además de las modalidades y características de acceso al Fondo Solidario de vejez, y se exponen los escenarios del pago nominal y real de la pensión que obtendría un productor quinuero en caso de afiliarse al Sistema Integral de Pensiones. |
| Keywords: | Economía laboral, jubilación, derechos de los trabajadores. |
| JEL: | J01 J26 J83 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202302&r=age |
| By: | Olivier Jacques; Marcelin Joanis; Jérome Turcotte |
| Abstract: | The government has indicated its intention to set a new debt reduction target in the 2023-2024 budget covering the next 10 to 15 years and to adjust the Act to reduce the debt and establish the Generations Fund (DFA) accordingly. What should the government's long-term debt reduction objective be? We believe that in order to achieve real equity between generations in a context of accelerated aging of the population, the government must support its new debt reduction target with tools to monitor and implement the long-term sustainability of Quebec's public finances. In the following opinion, we argue that the government should place more emphasis on the long-term resilience of its public finances by ensuring that they are fiscally sustainable, rather than on the choice of specific targets formulated in terms of the public debt ratio. In the absence of regular publication of long-term budget projections by the government that are longer than the five-year fiscal framework, we turn to some of the most recent studies on Quebec's fiscal sustainability to establish the state of the situation. Despite undeniable progress since the adoption of the DLA, we find that Quebec's fiscal sustainability remains fragile. On the basis of this observation, we make the following two recommendations, which we develop in greater detail at the end of this opinion. We propose that the revision of the Act to reduce the debt and establish the Generations Fund : Create an obligation for the Minister of Finance to produce annually an analysis of the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances; and Incorporates into the budgetary framework a sinking fund for Quebec's health insurance. This fund would aim to pre-finance the growth in health care attributable to the demographic evolution of the population and would have the objective of better distributing the burden of the growth in public financing of health care over a predictable time horizon. Le gouvernement a indiqué son intention de fixer, dans le budget 2023-2024, un nouvel objectif de réduction de la dette couvrant les 10 ou 15 prochaines années et d’ajuster la Loi sur la réduction de la dette et instituant le Fonds des générations (LRD) en conséquence. En matie?re de re?duction de la dette, quel objectif le gouvernement devrait-il se donner a? long terme ? Nous sommes d’avis que pour atteindre une réelle équité entre les générations dans un contexte de vieillissement accéléré de la population, le gouvernement doit accompagner sa nouvelle cible de réduction de la dette d’outils de surveillance et de mise en œuvre de la soutenabilité des finances publiques du Québec à long terme. Dans l’avis qui suit, nous arguons que le gouvernement devrait mettre davantage l’accent sur la résilience à long terme de ses finances publiques en s’assurant d’afficher une soutenabilité financière, que sur le choix de cibles spécifiques formulées en termes de ratio de dette publique. En l’absence d’une publication régulière de projections budgétaires de long terme par le gouvernement qui soient plus longues que le cadre financier quinquennal, nous nous tournons vers quelques-unes des plus récentes études sur la soutenabilité budgétaire du Québec afin d’établir un état de la situation. Malgré d’incontestables progrès observés depuis l’adoption de la LRD, nous constatons que la soutenabilité budgétaire du Québec demeure fragile. Sur la base de ce constat, nous émettons les deux recommandations suivantes, que nous développons plus en détail à la fin du présent avis. Nous proposons que la révision de la Loi sur la réduction de la dette et instituant le Fonds des générations : Crée l’obligation pour le ministre des Finances de produire annuellement une analyse de la soutenabilité budgétaire à long terme des finances publiques ; et Intègre au cadre budgétaire un fonds d’amortissement de l’assurance maladie du Québec. Ce fonds viserait à préfinancer la croissance des soins de santé attribuable à l’évolution démographique de la population et aurait pour objectif de mieux répartir dans le temps le fardeau de la croissance du financement public des soins de santé sur un horizon temporel prévisible. |
| Keywords: | debt reduction, public finance, LDR, fiscal sustainability, demographic change, réduction de la dette, finances publiques, LDR, soutenabilité budgétaire, évolution démographique |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2023pr-01&r=age |