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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Chen, Chien-Hsun |
| Abstract: | A rapidly aging population became a pressing demographic issue in Taiwan in the 1990s due to industrial transformation, family planning and urbanization in the 1970s and 1980s. An aging population tends to lead to less human capital and lower economic growth. The percentage of population aged 65 and above was 13.2% in 2016, while the figure is expected to jump to 16.0% by 2020 and 19.8% by 2025. Taiwan’s total population is projected to register a negative growth rate by 2025. The spike in old-age dependency ratios will deeply affect future labor markets. As the population ages, the working-age population has experienced a declining trend since 2015. Indeed, an aging population is expected to slow down economic growth and raise government spending on social welfare and health care programs, negatively impacting future fiscal sustainability. An enlarging aging population has turned out to be a politically strong force to be reckoned with during elections. Long-term care insurance products could reduce family burden and provide high quality long-term care. It supplements old-age support provided mostly by the family in accordance with Taiwanese cultural values; the family hence still plays a pivotal role in long-term care. |
| Keywords: | aging population; old-age dependency ratios; Social welfare and health care programs; long-term care |
| JEL: | I38 J11 J14 O11 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116543&r=age |
| By: | Giorgio Fabbri; Marie-Louise Leroux; Paolo Melindi-Ghidi; Willem Sas |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an overlapping generations model which links a public health system to a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. It relies on two assumptions. First, the health system directly finances curative health spending on the elderly. Second, public pensions partially depend on health status during old age, by introducing a component which is indexed to society’s average level of disability. This way, reducing disability during old age lowers the pension benefit as the need to finance long-term care services also drops. We then study the effects of introducing such a ‘comprehensive’ social security system on individual decisions, capital accumulation, and welfare. We first show that under certain conditions, health investments can boost savings and capital accumulation in the long run. Second, we show that if individuals are sufficiently concerned with their health when old, it is optimal to introduce a health-dependant pension system, as this will raise social welfare compared to a system where pensions are not tied to the society’s average level of old-age disability. Our analysis thus highlights an important policy recommendation: making PAYG pension schemes partially health-dependent can be beneficial to society. |
| Keywords: | Curative Health Investments, PAYG Pension System, Disability, Overlapping Generations, Long-term Care |
| JEL: | H55 I15 O41 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2022-05&r=age |
| By: | Eve Caroli (Legos - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Catherine Pollak (DREES - Centre de Recherche du DREES - Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Muriel Roger (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Using the differentiated increase in retirement age across cohorts introduced by the 2010 French pension reform, we estimate the health-consumption effects of a 4-month increase in retirement age. We focus on individuals who were close to retirement age but not retired yet by the time the reform was passed. Using administrative data on individual sick-leave claims and nonhospital health-care expenses, we show that the probability of having at least one sickness absence increases for all treated groups, while the duration of sick leaves remains unchanged.Delaying retirement does not increase the probability of seeing a GP, except for men in the younger cohorts. In contrast, it raises the probability of having a visit with a specialist physician for all individuals, except men in the older cohorts. Delaying retirement also increases the probability of seeing a physiotherapist among women from the older cohorts. Overall, itincreases health expense claims, in particular in the lower part of the expenditure distribution. |
| Keywords: | Pension reform, Retirement age, Health, Health-care consumption, DT LEDa-LEGOS |
| Date: | 2022–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03899867&r=age |
| By: | Horneff, Vanya; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates retirees' optimal purchases of fixed and variable longevity income annuities using their defined contribution (DC) plan assets and given their expected Social Security benefits. As an alternative, we also evaluate using plan assets to boost Social Security benefits through delayed claiming. We determine that including deferred income annuities in DC accounts is welfare enhancing for all sex/education groups examined. We also show that providing access to well-designed variable deferred annuities with some equity exposure further enhances retiree wellbeing, compared to having access only to fixed annuities. Nevertheless, for the least educated, delaying claiming Social Security is preferred, whereas the most educated benefit more from using accumulated DC plan assets to purchase deferred annuities. |
| Keywords: | lifecycle saving, retirement plan, annuity, longevity, delayed claiming, household finance |
| JEL: | G11 G22 D14 D91 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:684&r=age |
| By: | Chen, Shanquan; Zhang, Huanyu; Underwood, Benjamin R.; Wang, Dan; Chen, Xi; Cardinal, Rudolf N. |
| Abstract: | Informal care is a primary source of support for older adults with cognitive impairment but is less available to those who live alone. We leverage the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey 2000-2018 to examine trends in the prevalence of physical disability and social support among older adults with cognitive impairment living alone, and their gender and racial/ethnic disparities. Information on physical disability and social support was collected through measures of basic and instrumental activities of daily living (BADLs, IADLs). Logistic and Poisson regression were adopted to estimate linear trends over time for binary and integer outcomes, respectively. Among those who reported BADL/IADL disability, the proportion unsupported for BADLs decreased significantly over time, while the proportion unsupported for IADLs increased significantly over time. Among those who received IADL support, the number of unmet IADL support needs increased significantly over time. Over time, Black respondents had a relatively increasing trend of being BADL-unsupported, and Hispanic and Black respondents had a relatively increasing trend in the number of unmet BADL needs, compared to the corresponding trends in White respondents. Among US older adults with cognitive impairment living alone, fewer people received IADL support over time, and the extent of unmet IADL support needs increased. Racial/ethnic disparities were seen both in the prevalence of reported BADL/IADL disability and unmet needs for BADL/IADL support; some but not all were compatible with a reduction in disparity over time. Our findings may prompt customized interventions to reduce disparities and unmet support needs. |
| Keywords: | gender disparity, racial/ethnic disparity, physical disability, social support, cognitive impairment |
| JEL: | I10 J11 J14 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1249&r=age |
| By: | Rob Bauer; Dirk Broeders; Annick van Ool |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the disclosures of sustainable investing by Dutch pension funds in their annual reports from 2016 to 2021. We introduce a novel textual analysis approach using state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to measure the awareness and implementation of sustainable investing, where we define awareness as the amount of attention paid to sustainable investing in the annual report. We exploit a proprietary dataset to analyze the relation between pension fund characteristics and sustainable investing. We find that a pension fund’s size increases both the awareness and the implementation of sustainable investing. Moreover, we analyze the role of signing the International Responsible Business Conduct (IRBC) initiative. Large pension funds, pension funds with more female trustees, or pension funds with a positive belief about the risk-return relation of sustainable investing are more likely to sign the IRBC initiative. Although signing this initiative increases the specificity of pension fund statements about sustainable investing, we do not find an effect on the implementation of sustainable investing. |
| Keywords: | ESG; sustainability; SI initiatives; pension funds; textual analysis; natural language processing. |
| JEL: | C8 G11 J32 M14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:770&r=age |
| By: | Santos, João Vasco; Martins, Filipa Santos; Pestana, Joana; Souza, Júlio; Freitas, Alberto; Cylus, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Healthcare expenditure, a common input used in health systems efficiency analyses is affected by population age structure. However, while age structure is usually considered to adjust health system outputs, health expenditure and other inputs are seldom adjusted. We propose methods for adjusting Health Expenditure per Capita (HEpC) for population age structure on health system efficiency analyses and assess the goodness-of-fit, correlation, reliability and disagreement of different approaches. Methods: We performed a worldwide (188 countries) cross-sectional study of efficiency in 2015, using a stochastic frontier analysis. As single outputs, healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth and at 65 years-old were considered in different models. We developed five models using as inputs: (1) HEpC (unadjusted); (2) age-adjusted HEpC; (3) HEpC and the proportion of 0–14, 15–64 and 65 + years-old; (4) HEpC and 5-year age-groups; and (5) HEpC ageing index. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, Spearman’s rank correlation, intraclass correlation coefficient and information-based measure of disagreement were computed. Results: Models 1 and 2 showed the highest correlation (0.981 and 0.986 for HALE at birth and HALE at 65 years-old, respectively) and reliability (0.986 and 0.988) and the lowest disagreement (0.011 and 0.014). Model 2, with age-adjusted HEpC, presented the lowest information criteria values. Conclusions: Despite different models showing good correlation and reliability and low disagreement, there was important variability when age structure is considered that cannot be disregarded. The age-adjusted HE model provided the best goodness-of-fit and was the closest option to the current standard. |
| Keywords: | age adjustment; efficiency; frontier models; health system; uropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.721402 |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118298&r=age |
| By: | Mohamed Ali Ben Halima (MESuRS - Laboratoire Modélisation, épidémiologie et surveillance des risques sanitaires - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Camille Ciriez (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, ENSAE - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique); Malik Koubi (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Ali Skalli (LEMMA - Laboratoire d'économie mathématique et de microéconomie appliquée - Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas) |
| Abstract: | En repoussant de deux ans l'âge minimum de liquidation de pension ou âge d'ouverture des droits (AOD), l'ambition de la réforme des retraites de 2010 a été de réduire la charge des pensions et d'augmenter le taux d'activité des seniors, limitant ainsi le déficit des caisses d'assurance-retraite. Mais alors que ce type de réforme entend encourager l'emploi des seniors, plusieurs études montrent qu'une hausse de l'âge légal de départ à la retraite engendre également d'autres effets, tels que l'augmentation du chômage ou de l'invalidité en fin de carrière. Ce numéro de Connaissance de l'emploi s'intéresse à un autre effet indirect à partir des données de la base administrative Hygie (2005-2015) : l'augmentation des absences pour maladie. Si cet effet s'avère important , la réduction du déficit des caisses d'assurance-retraite s'accompagnerait d'un surcoût pour l'assurance-maladie, lié au surcroît du nombre de jours d'arrêt à indemniser. Les résultats montrent que le report de l'âge légal de départ en 2010 a effectivement entraîné une augmentation significative des arrêts-maladie, et ce, pour l'ensemble de la population, mais avec des effets différencié selon le genre. |
| Date: | 2023–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03987714&r=age |
| By: | Luca Badolato (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ari Gabriel Decter-Frain (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Nicolas Irons (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Maria Laura Miranda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Erin Walk; Elnura Zhalieva; Monica Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Individual-level mortality prediction is a fundamental challenge with implications for people and societies. Accurate longevity predictions improve life planning, targeting of high-risk individuals, and organization of social interventions, policies, and public spending. Demographers and actuaries have been primarily concerned with mortality modeling and prediction at a macro level, leveraging strong regularities in mortality rates over age, sex, space, and time. Besides clinical settings, individual-level mortality predictions have been largely overlooked and have remained a challenging task. We model and predict individual-level lifespan using data from the US Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of people over 50 years of age. We estimate 12 statistical and machine learning survival analysis models using over 150 predictors measuring behavioral, biological, demographic, health, and social indicators. Extending previous research on inequalities in mortality and morbidity, we investigate inequalities in individual mortality prediction by gender, race and ethnicity, and education. Machine learning and traditional models report comparable accuracy and relatively high discriminative performance, particularly when including time-varying information (best mean Area Under the Curve = 0.87). However, the models and predictors used fail to account for a majority of lifespan heterogeneity at the individual level. We observe consistent inequalities in mortality predictability and risk discrimination, with lower prediction accuracy for men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and low-educated individuals. In addition, people in these groups show lower accuracy in their subjective predictions of their own lifespan. Finally, we see minimal variation in the top features across groups, with variables related to habits, health history, and finances being relevant predictors. Our results assess how well mortality can be predicted from representative surveys, providing baselines and guidance for future research across countries. |
| Keywords: | USA, forecasts, inequality, longevity |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-008&r=age |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se resumen las principales medidas incluidas en el reciente acuerdo para cerrar la reforma del sistema público de pensiones y se cuantifican sus efectos sobre los ingresos y gastos del sistema. Incorporando también estimaciones sobre el impacto presupuestario de otros aspectos de la reforma, parece claro que el déficit básico del sistema (antes de transferencias del Estado), que ya es significativo en la actualidad, aumentará rápidamente durante las próximas décadas, lo que exigirá cuantiosas y crecientes aportaciones de recursos generales que podrían dejar poco margen para otras prioridades. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2023-06&r=age |