nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2022‒06‒27
eleven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Leaving the Labor Market Early in Sweden – Learning from International Experience By Bengtsson, Mats; König, Stefanie; Schönbeck, Simon; Wadensjö, Eskil
  2. Caregiving Subsidies and Spousal Early Retirement Intentions By Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina
  3. The Future of Long-term Care in Quebec: What are the Cost Savings from a Realistic Shift Towards more Home Care? By Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
  4. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies By Matteo Lanzafame
  5. The Link between Health and Working Longer: Disparities in Work Capacity By Benjamin Berger; Italo Lopez Garcia; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
  6. Replacement Rates of Public Pensions in Canada: Heterogeneity across SocioEconomic Status By Nicholas-James Clavet; Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca
  7. Are Retirees More Satisfied? Anticipation and Adaptation Effects: A Causal Panel Analysis of German Statutory Insured and Civil Service Pensioners By Joachim Merz
  8. Does a Universal Pension Reduce Elderly Poverty in China? By Anqi Zhang; Katsushi S. Imai
  9. Labor force aging and the composition of regional human capital By Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
  10. Prolonged worklife among grandfathers: Spillover effects on grandchildren's educational outcomes By Jim Been; Anne C. Gielen; Marike Knoef; Gloria Moroni
  11. Communication relative aux pensions : digitalisation et défis pour l'avenir By Lanotte, Myriam; Devolder, Pierre

  1. By: Bengtsson, Mats (Swedish Social Insurance Inspectorate (ISF)); König, Stefanie (University of Gothenburg); Schönbeck, Simon (University of Gothenburg); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: It is a challenge for politics that an aging population leads to demands that the retirement age is increasing while not everyone is able to work to such a higher age. Sweden, like other countries, has several options for early exit from the labour market. However, the regulations have become more restrictive in the last decade and early retirement usually leads to a lower pension. In this article, we map options for early retirement in other countries. We have found five main types that all have both advantages and disadvantages. There are also problems with integrating them into the Swedish pension system.
    Keywords: retirement, employment, pensions, early exit
    JEL: H55 J11 J14 J21 J26
    Date: 2022–05
  2. By: Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina (Universidad de Murcia)
    Abstract: Balancing caregiving duties and work can be both financially and emotionally burdensome, especially when care is provided to a spouse at home. This paper documents that financial respite for caregivers can influence individuals' early retirement decisions. We examine the effect of a reform extending long-term care (LTC) benefits (in the form of subsidies and supports) in Spain after 2007 on caregiving spouse's early retirement intention. We subsequently examine the effect of austerity spending cuts in 2012 reducing such publicly funded benefits, and we subsequent compare the estimates to the effects of an early retirement reform among private sector workers in 2013. We document evidence of a 10pp reduction in the early retirement intentions after the LTC reform even though the effect is heterogeneous by type of benefit. Consistently, austerity spending cuts in benefits are found to weaken retirement intentions. Our estimates suggest that cuts in caregiving subsidies exert a much stronger effect on early retirement intentions than actual early retirement reforms.
    Keywords: informal care, retirement, employment, long-term care, caregiving subsidies, home care
    JEL: I18 J14
    Date: 2022–05
  3. By: Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
    Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the future long-term care needs and expenditures in Quebec while proposing and evaluating a reform package that could deliver increased coverage as well as be more financially sustainable than current policy. This reform package consists of a shift towards more intensive use of home care while increasing public coverage of care needs. A key feature of the proposed reform is to improve the ability of users to choose their provider with the creation of a senior’s care account, an account that grants individuals in need to purchase services from several providers, including both home and institutional care. To improve the neutrality of public support across care arrangements, we also propose to increase residents’ contribution in nursing homes while favoring the continued use of existing tax credits to help seniors with lower needs in terms of care. Using detailed dynamic modelling of care needs, living arrangements, and expenditures, we estimate that long-term care needs will grow rapidly in the next two decades and the costs will quickly become prohibitive under current policy. We show that substantial cost savings may exist.
    Keywords: long-term care, population aging, public finances, soins de longue durée, vieillissement démographique, finances publiques.
    JEL: H51 H68 J14
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Matteo Lanzafame
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels - including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change - in particular, population aging - on labor productivity growth.
    Keywords: Demographic change; labor productivity; robots.
    JEL: C33 J11 O40
    Date: 2022–03–03
  5. By: Benjamin Berger; Italo Lopez Garcia; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
    Abstract: Good health is important for employment at older ages. However, little is known about how health-related functional abilities interact with occupational demands to shape work capacity. Using new data, we quantify individuals’ functional abilities, combine that information with occupation-specific ability requirements, and create new measures of individuals’ potential occupations and earnings. We find that average functional abilities, potential occupations, and potential earnings decline only slightly with age, indicating that many Americans maintain work capacity into their late 60s. Gaps in work capacity by race/ethnicity and gender are small, suggesting health is not a major driver of observed earnings disparities. However, gaps in work capacity by education are large and increase with age, suggesting diminished prospects for working longer among those with less education. Although work capacity among Black respondents improves across cohorts, today’s middle-aged white Americans have lower work capacity than those now at retirement age, suggesting rising rates of work disability as these cohorts age.
    JEL: J14 J15 J24
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Nicholas-James Clavet; Mayssun El-Attar; Raquel Fonseca
    Abstract: When individuals decide to retire from the labour force, different sources of income can help to maintain consumption and welfare. One of those is public pensions. Their importance as an income source varies greatly according to socio-economic status (SES). This paper analyzes how replacement rates (RR) of public pensions (OAS and GIS) and mandatory public pension benefits (C/QPP) vary across SES by using the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults dataset (LISA). Using the longitudinal nature of this survey, we compute and compare average RRs by SES. We specifically consider the role of education and health, and we study how living arrangements can explain RRs variations. To give an idea the average RR of public pensions for individuals in bad health is 32%, while it is 21% for those who report being in good health. Including public pensions and C/QPP benefits, these numbers become 54% for those in bad health and 41% for those in good health. When estimating a multivariate regression model and controlling for past income, we find for couples, that past income does not eliminate differences in replacement ratio by individuals’ characteristics. We argue that assortative mating plays a role in explaining the variation of replacement rates across individuals’ characteristics.
    Keywords: Replacement rates, retirement, Canadian public pensions, LISA
    JEL: H55 J26
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Joachim Merz
    Abstract: This study contributes to the subjective well-being and retirement literature by quantifying life satisfaction before (4) and after retirement (9+) periods asking: Are retirees more satisfied? Fixed-effects and causal instrumental variables (IV) estimates with individual longitudinal data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, 33 waves) analyze anticipation and adaptation retirement effects of statutory insured and civil service pensioners in Germany. Main findings: The occupational situation absorbs a positive personal and family influence. There are positive anticipation effects before retirement followed by adaptation instantly when retired both for statutory insured and civil service pensioners. With neutral respectively negative post-retirement adaptation there is no positive retirement effect for both pensioner groups. In short: retirees are not more satisfied, a remarkable result both for statutory insured and civil service pensioners.
    Keywords: Retirement, statutory insured and civil service pensioners, life satisfaction/subjective well-being, anticipation and adaptation effects, robust fixed-effect regression, causality IV estimates, Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), Germany
    JEL: I31 J26 C21 C23
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Anqi Zhang (Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK and Institute of Belt and Road & Global Governance, Fudan University, CHINA); Katsushi S. Imai (Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK and Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the universal pension programme on elderly poverty in both rural and urban China. Using the three rounds of panel data based on the Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011-2015, we examine whether the universal pension programme reduced elderly poverty, comprehensively defined to cover both unidimensional and multidimensional poverty indices of the households and individuals. To utilise the longitudinal nature of the data, we apply the robust Fixed-Effects (FE) Model with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and the FE Quantile Model with PSM taking into account the unobservable individual characteristics, such as entrepreneurship or risk preference. Our results show that the universal pension programme reduced poverty in monetary and non-monetary terms in both rural and urban areas. While rural people tend to continue to work in the labour market after the receipt of the pension, urban people work less due to the negative income effect of the programme. The panel quantile regression results suggest that the programme decreased the inequality in both monetary and non-monetary dimensions. Our results provide strong evidence to underscore the success of the Chinese universal pension programme in reducing poverty and inequality in both rural and urban areas.
    Keywords: Poverty; Inequality; Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI); Pension; Impact evaluation; China
    JEL: C23 I32 I38 H75
    Date: 2022–06
  9. By: Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: Human capital investments are frequently suggested as a policy measure to cope with smaller and older labor forces caused by demographic change across Europe. However, the availability and composition of human capital is fundamentally intertwined with demographic structures, especially at a regional level. This article analyzes how aging is related to the regional composition of human capital for German regions between 2000 and 2010. The findings show that labor force aging is associated with lower educational attainment and that older labor forces have higher shares of traditional vocational degrees. On a national level, education expansion still sufficiently compensates for the effects of population aging, but regional human capital composition shows distinct trends.
    Keywords: demographic change; human capital; regional development; ES/M008436/1; 1378766
    JEL: R10 R12 R23 J21 J24
    Date: 2021–03–15
  10. By: Jim Been (Leiden University); Anne C. Gielen (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Marike Knoef (Leiden University); Gloria Moroni (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: Recent policies aiming to prolong worklives have increased older males’ labor supply. Yet, little is known about their intergenerational effects. Using unique Dutch administrative data covering three consecutive generations, this paper studies the impact of increased grandfathers’ labor supply following a reform in unemployment insurance for persons aged 57.5+ on grandchildren’s educational performance. We find that increased grandfathers’ labor supply increases grandchildren’s test scores in 6th grade. The effect is driven by substitution of grandparents’ informal care by formal childcare.
    Keywords: Intergenerational effects, labor supply, unemployment insurance, child care, child development
    JEL: J13 J14 J22 J26 J65
    Date: 2022–05–28
  11. By: Lanotte, Myriam (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Devolder, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)
    Abstract: Cet article présente une enquête menée auprès de 11 pays européens dans le but de situer et évaluer la communication sur les pensions en Europe en 2020. L’objectif de l’enquête est de mettre en évidence les défis, les faiblesses et les risques possibles pour l'avenir. Quatre conclusions importantes sont mises en évidence par l’enquête: (1) les efforts en matière de communication sur les pensions se concentrent sur le développement d'une communication numérique et de plateformes digitales pour consulter les droits de pension individuels ; (2) il existe une grande disparité entre les pays concernant cette communication digitale ; (3) les recommandations les plus importantes pour une bonne communication sur les pensions ne sont pas encore intégrées dans la plupart des pays ; (4) l'intérêt des personnes pour les informations fournies reste faible quel que soit le développement de la communication. Sur la base de ces résultats, cet article examine également (1) l'impact de la digitalisation ; (2) l'importance de la communication sur les régimes de retraite; et (3) le problème du faible intérêt. Quelques pistes de recherches futures sont également proposées.
    Keywords: Communication sur les pensions ; Systèmes de suivi des pensions ; Intérêt du public ; Numérisation
    JEL: H55 J26 O33
    Date: 2022–05–03

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