nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. The Old-Age Pension Household Replacement Rate in Belgium By Brown, Alessio J.G.; Fraikin, Anne-Lore
  2. The Effect of Increasing Retirement Age on Households’ Savings and Consumption Expenditures By Stefan Etgeton; Björn Fischer; Han Ye
  3. Dissecting the Pandemic Retirement Surge By Owen Davis; Siavash Radpour
  4. Ageing and Welfare-State Policy: Macroeconomic Perspective By Assaf Razin; Alexander Horst Schwemmer
  5. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies By Lanzafame, Matteo
  6. Long-Term Care Insurance Financing Using Home Equity Release: Evidence from an Online Experimental Survey By Katja Hanewald; Hazel Bateman; Hanming Fang; Tin Long Ho
  7. Antimicrobial resistance in long-term care facilities By Nkiruka Eze; Michele Cecchini; Tiago Cravo Oliveira Hashiguchi
  8. Impacts of State Paid Family Leave Policies for Older Workers with Spouses or Parents in Poor Health By Braga, Breno; Butrica, Barbara A.; Mudrazija, Stipica; Peters, H.E.
  9. Inequality in Mortality: Updated Estimates for the United States, Canada and France* By Michael Baker; Janet Currie; Boriana Miloucheva; Hannes Schwandt; Josselin Thuilliez
  10. The measurement of structural ageing – An axiomatic approach By Michael P Cameron
  11. Happier Elderly Residents. The positive impact of physical activity on objective and subjective health condition of elderly people in nursing homes. Evidence from a multi-site randomized controlled trial By Claudia Senik; Guglielmo Zappalà; Carine Milcent; Chloé Gerves-Pinquié; Patricia Dargent-Molina
  12. Demografía colombiana: en preparación para la era del envejecimiento By Piedad Urdinola
  13. The (Un)Importance of Inheritance By Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Landaud, Fanny; Salvanes, Kjell G.

  1. By: Brown, Alessio J.G.; Fraikin, Anne-Lore
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a recommendation of the Belgian Pension Reform Committee, this policy is to be suppressed for new pensioners, except for those receiving the minimum pension. We provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of such reform on both pension sustainability and adequacy measures. Specifically, we test whether the household replacement rate entails a work (dis)incentive mechanism promoting (harming) pension sustainability and furthermore, we analyse the role of the household replacement rate in old-age poverty and inequality measures. To do so, we use the survey dataset SHARE and a discrete time logistic duration model to study the link between retirement and financial retirement incentives created by the social security system. We find that the household replacement rate generates slightly higher retirement incentives through an income effect and we find that the household replacement rate plays an important role in decreasing the elderly poverty rate. Since households with asymmetrical working arrangements are often at the lowest part of the equivalized income distribution, the substantial effect of the household replacement rate on poverty measures is a motive to use such mechanism as a poverty alleviation tool. Nevertheless, we advocate that income redistribution measures should not be tied to a specific household composition and policies such as pensionable earning minima, minimum pension benefits and the inclusion of replacement income periods in the pension benefits calculation effectively serve the income redistribution goal without favouring a certain type of household over another. Overall, despite the positive poverty and distributional aspects of this policy, our analysis supports the reform proposal of removing the household replacement rate.
    Keywords: retirement,pension policy,Belgium,impact assessment
    JEL: J22 H31 H55 J26
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Stefan Etgeton; Björn Fischer; Han Ye
    Abstract: This paper examines how households adjust their savings and consumption expenditure in response to an anticipated increase in the early retirement age (ERA). We examine the 1999 pension reform in Germany, which increased the ERA for women born after 1951 by at least three years. Using the German Income and Consumption Survey, we find a negative impact on private savings of 0.6 percentage points, which is driven by married households. We show that households consisting of highly educated women and homeowners are more likely to reduce their savings rates. Furthermore, we find that the treated households increase their leisure spending while maintaining an unchanged level of disposable income. Our findings suggest that the treated households absorb the pension wealth shock without increasing their savings.
    Keywords: Pension Reform; Early Retirement Age; Savings; Pension Wealth; Consumption Expenditur
    JEL: D14 J14 J26
    Date: 2021–01
  3. By: Owen Davis; Siavash Radpour (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: One of the most pressing questions facing policy makers is how quickly the labor force might return to its pre-pandemic strength. Answering this question requires understanding the employment and retirement trajectories of older workers in the pandemic. The labor force is roughly 3.8 million workers short of where it would be if we still lived in the pre-Covid economy, and nearly half of this shortfall is accounted for by those 55 and older. Meanwhile, the retired share of the population is roughly 2 percentage points above its pre-pandemic trend line (Davis, 2021). Dissecting the Pandemic Retirement Surge finds that: In explaining the sharp increase in the retired share since Covid-19 hit, the drop in “unretirement,†that is, the decrease in flows from retirement to employment, plays only a minor role. The most important driver of the recent increase in retirements consists of higher flows into retirement among workers who were employed in the year before the pandemic. The retirement of workers who became unemployed due to the pandemic also contributed significantly to the increased retired share.
    Keywords: older workers, retirement, Covid-19, labor force flows
    JEL: E24 I14 J62 J38 E21 J83 J32
    Date: 2021–12
  4. By: Assaf Razin; Alexander Horst Schwemmer
    Abstract: It has been well recognized that population ageing could generate structural changes centered around the dwindling labor force, on one hand, and the expanding dependency on the generosity of the welfare state, on the other hand. Ageing-related welfare state policy entails both fiscal issues and migration issues. The paper employs a general-equilibrium model with a policy-making focus, to help understand the mechanism governing the provision of social benefits, labor income taxation, capital income taxation, migration curbs on low skilled and high skilled, driven by the ageing of the population. Greater generosity of the welfare state comes together with policy-- incentive compatible with the interests of the majority voters-- of a more liberal migration policy. Effects of ageing on the tax and benefit sides of the welfare state depends on the size of dependents in the population and on whether the country is a capital importer (in which case the capital tax burden is shared with foreigners) or a capital exporter (in which case the age-related wage increase skews taxation towards labor income). Low ageing evolution correlates with a relatively labor-abundant country (low retirement) turns into labor-scarce country (high retirement). Parallel to the evolution of the labor force, a capital-importer country (high rate of return) becomes capital-exporter (low rate of return). Greater ageing-related demand for social benefits is balanced against the rising cost of labor income taxation, and capital income taxation.
    JEL: F2 H2
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Lanzafame, Matteo
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels – including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects unfavorable demographic change – in particular, population aging-on labor productivity.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2021–12–18
  6. By: Katja Hanewald; Hazel Bateman; Hanming Fang; Tin Long Ho
    Abstract: This paper explores new mechanisms to fund long-term care using housing wealth. Using data from an online experimental survey fielded to a sample of 1,200 Chinese homeowners aged 45-64, we assess the potential demand for new financial products that allow individuals to access their housing wealth to buy long-term care insurance. We find that access to housing wealth increases the stated demand for long-term care insurance. When they could only use savings, participants used on average 5% of their total (hypothetical) wealth to purchase long-term care insurance. When they could use savings and a reverse mortgage, participants used 15% of their total wealth to buy long-term care insurance. With savings and home reversion, they used 12%. Reverse mortgages do not require regular payments until the home is sold, while home reversion involves a partial sale and leaseback. Our results inform the design of new public or private sector programs that allow individuals to access their housing wealth while still living in their homes.
    JEL: D14 G11 G21
    Date: 2022–01
  7. By: Nkiruka Eze (University of Manitoba); Michele Cecchini (OECD); Tiago Cravo Oliveira Hashiguchi (University of Manitoba)
    Abstract: Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) provide care for extended periods to older people who frequently require antimicrobials to treat and prevent infection, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among older LTCF residents. Evidence indicates that, due to a combination of factors related to LTCF residents, prescribers and health care systems, up to 75% of antimicrobial prescriptions in LTCFs are inappropriate, in terms not only of the duration and choice of therapy, but also the need for therapy in the first place. Inappropriate use of antimicrobials is associated with the high rates of multi-drug resistant organisms that are recovered in LTCFs, and may exacerbate the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), both in LTCFs and in the community. Yet, policies to tackle inappropriate antimicrobial use and AMR in LTCFs, such as antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention and control (IPC), remain underused or suboptimal. Some countries are starting to act but they are a minority. Countries seeking to improve antimicrobial consumption, and minimise the threat of AMR, in LTCFs can: set up routine surveillance systems dedicated to collecting and reporting data on antimicrobial use and resistance in LTCFs; design, implement and enforce multifaceted antimicrobial stewardship programmes that comprehensively address multiple determinants of inappropriate antimicrobial prescribing and use; and adopt IPC programmes tailored to the specific needs and risks of LTCFs.
    JEL: I10 F50 H75 O38
    Date: 2022–02–22
  8. By: Braga, Breno (Urban Institute); Butrica, Barbara A. (Urban Institute); Mudrazija, Stipica (Urban Institute); Peters, H.E.
    Abstract: Since 2004 six states plus Washington, DC have implemented laws that provide paid leave benefits to workers caring for family members who have a disability or serious medical condition. Focusing on the most established state programs—California and New Jersey—this paper investigates whether paid family leave (PFL) policies facilitate greater labor supply, caregiving, and improvements in health outcomes for those likely to provide family care. Using our preferred estimation method, we find that women with a spouse in poor health are 7.4 percentage points more likely to work while providing care after the implementation of PFL compared to those not living in a PFL state. Similarly, women living within 10 miles of a parent in poor health are more likely to work while providing care (5.6 percentage points) after PFL. The implementation of state PFL also leads to improvements in mental health outcomes for these two groups of women. We fail to find strong evidence that PFL affects labor and care decisions for women living more than 10 miles from a parent in poor health. PFL also has less consistent effects on men.
    Keywords: family leave, older workers, caregiving
    JEL: I38 J14 J16
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Michael Baker (University of Toronto [Scarborough, Canada]); Janet Currie (Princeton University); Boriana Miloucheva (University of Toronto [Scarborough, Canada]); Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University [Evanston]); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This study provides comparisons of inequalities in mortality between the United States, Canada and France using the most recent available data. The period between 2010 and 2018 saw increases in mortality and in inequality in mortality for most age and gender groups in the United States. The main exceptions were children under 5 and adults over 65. In contrast, Canada saw a further flattening of mortality gradients in most groups, as well as further declines in overall mortality. The sole exception was Canadian women over 80 years old, who saw small increases in mortality rates. France saw continuing improvements in mortality rates in all groups. Both Canada and France have distributions of mortality that are much more equal than those in the United States, demonstrating the importance of public policy in the achievement of equality in health.
    Keywords: age-specific mortality,Canada,France,mortality inequality,United States
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Michael P Cameron (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: The structural ageing of the population is one of the key global trends of the 21st Century. In this paper, we outline four axioms that, along with easy interpretability, we believe should underpin a theoretically valid measure of structural ageing: (1) population size invariance; (2) strong dominance; (3) weak dominance; and (4) age sensitivity. We then present a class of structural ageing indices that satisfy the axioms and are easily interpretable, with root-mean-squared-age (RMSA) as our preferred measure within the class. Using historical and cross-national data from the World Population Prospects, state-level data from the US Census Bureau, and local-authority-level data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that our preferred measure is correlated with conventional measures of structural ageing. Nevertheless, in each case there are large disparities in ranking for some countries, states, or local authorities between the different measures. These ranking disparities could be highly consequential for the allocation of resources, particularly between states or local areas within countries. Our proposed class of measures may help to avoid these disparities due to their axiomatically-consistent nature. Finally, we present considerations for future extensions of this important work, including the development of equivalent measures based on prospective age.
    Keywords: Population ageing; Structural ageing;Measurement
    JEL: C46 J10 J11
    Date: 2022–02–23
  11. By: Claudia Senik (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, SU - Sorbonne Université); Guglielmo Zappalà (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Carine Milcent (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Chloé Gerves-Pinquié (IRSRPL - Institut Recherche en Santé Respiratoire des Pays de la Loire); Patricia Dargent-Molina (INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale)
    Abstract: We explore the effects of adapted physical exercise programs in nursing homes, in which some residents suffer from dementia and/or physical limitations and other do not. We use data from 452 participants followed over 12 months in 32 retirement homes in four European countries. Using a difference-in-difference with individual random effects model, we show that the program has exerted a significant impact on the number of falls and the self-declared health and health-related quality of life of residents (EQ-5D). The wide scope of this study, in terms of sites, countries, and measured outcomes, brings generality to previously existing evidence. A simple computation, in the case of France, suggests that such programs are highly cost-efficient.
    Keywords: Physical activity,Retirement homes,Impact study,Subjective health,Falls
    Date: 2021–05–14
  12. By: Piedad Urdinola
    Abstract: Explora las tendencias demográficas (mortalidad, fecundidad, migración, patrones regionales) de las últimas décadas, para esbozar cuál será la estructura de la población durante los próximos años y cuáles serán los retos de política --- y también las oportunidades--- de esta nueva estructura. Colombia pasó de ser un país expulsor de personas a enfrentar los retos de la migración venezolana que, bien manejados, podrían redundar en beneficios económicos, en la medida en que los migrantes se integren exitosamente al mercado laboral. La relación entre demografía y economía es innegable. La cantidad de personas y la distribución por edad y sexo, o distribución poblacional, determina el mercado laboral, con implicaciones en los sistemas de ahorro privado y los costos fiscales del sistema de seguridad social en sus dos componentes principales: salud y pensiones. Esto sin contar las muchas más relaciones indirectas, como salud y productividad, distribución espacial de la población y producción rural-urbana, composición etaria e impacto en la criminalidad, etc., de allí que el presente capítulo se centra en presentar los patrones demográficos de las décadas más recientes, para así prever lo que sucederá en la naciente década del 2020. Para facilitar la lectura, se presentan estas particularidades del caso colombiano por temáticas demográficas en el siguiente orden: distribución poblacional, mortalidad, fecundidad, migración y proyecciones subnacionales de población. Por último, se expone la medición del bono demográfico, que es la relación directa entre demografía y economía y el tema central para el cual el país debería estar preparándose en la presente década.
    Keywords: Demografía, Tendencias Demográficas, Distribución de la Población, Mortalidad, Fecundidad, Migración, Proyecciones Subnacionales de Población, Bono Demográfico, Colombia
    JEL: J10 J11 J13 F22 O15 R23 O54
    Date: 2021–04–01
  13. By: Black, Sandra E. (Columbia University); Devereux, Paul J. (University College Dublin); Landaud, Fanny (Norwegian School of Economics); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Transfers from parents-either in the form of gifts or inheritances-have received much attention as a source of inequality. This paper uses administrative data for the population of Norway to examine the share of the Total Inflows (defined as the capitalized sum of net labor income, government transfers, and gifts and inheritances received over the period) accounted for by capitalized gifts and inheritances. We find that gifts and inheritances represent a small share of Total Inflows; this is true across the distribution of Total Inflows, as well as at all levels of net wealth. Gifts and inheritances are only an important source of income flows among those who have very wealthy parents. Additionally, gifts and inheritances have very little effect on the distribution of Total Inflows, suggesting that inheritance taxes may do little to mitigate wealth inequality.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission, inheritances and gifts, wealth inequality
    JEL: G51 J01 J1
    Date: 2022–01

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