nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2021‒10‒25
eleven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Putting an Economic Framework into Thailand’s Pension Reform By Nada Wasi; Chinnawat Devahastin Na Ayudhya; Ponpoje Porapakkarm; Nuarpear Lekfuangfu; Suphanit Piyapromdee
  2. Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth? By Cylus, Jonathan; Al Tayara, Lynn
  3. Teachers’ Willingness to Pay for Retirement Benefits: A National Stated Preferences Experiment By Fuchsman, Dillon; McGee, Josh; Zamarro, Gema
  4. Demographic Effects on Prices: Is Aging Deflationary? By Tomoki Isa
  5. Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement? By De Nardi, M.; French, E.; Bailey Jones, J.; McGee, R.
  6. Building Inclusive Environments for All Ages with Citizens By Staalduinen, Willeke van; Dantas, Carina; Hoof, Joost Van; Klimczuk, Andrzej
  7. The effect of land expropriation on the labor supply of the elderly people By Gao, Huajie; Ye, Chunhui
  8. Employees’ emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to increasing statutory retirement ages By Oude Mulders, Jaap; Henkens, C.J.I.M.; van Dalen, Hendrik Peter
  9. The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide By Christian Dudel; Elke Loichinger; Sebastian Klüsener; Harun Sulak; Mikko Myrskylä
  10. Juggling Paid Work and Elderly Care Provision in Japan: Does a Flexible Work Environment Help Family Caregivers Cope? By Niimi, Yoko
  11. COVID-19 in long-term care: Impact, policy responses and challenges By Eileen Rocard; Paola Sillitti; Ana Llena-Nozal

  1. By: Nada Wasi; Chinnawat Devahastin Na Ayudhya; Ponpoje Porapakkarm; Nuarpear Lekfuangfu; Suphanit Piyapromdee
    Abstract: Thailand has several old-age income support schemes, ranging from contributory schemes for the formal sector, voluntary savings schemes for the informal sector to the universal noncontributory social assistance scheme. Although these schemes together can cover almost all Thai citizens, several challenges remain. This article focuses on the inadequacy of the mandatory Social Security system for the formal workers (known as Article 33). We identify four key reasons leading to low pension benefits: (i) a non-trivial fraction of workers left the formal sector before being eligible for annuity; (ii) those who left Article 33 but voluntarily joined Article 39 would receive unfair reduced pension benefits; (iii) the scheme did not use any indexation, meaning that the specified amount of past earnings, wage ceiling and benefits have lower value over time; and (iv) the scheme has no income redistribution mechanism. The scheme’s financial sustainability is also a concern. We proposed some adjustments to solve the inadequacy problem, as well as a strategy to delay claiming while minimizing the impact to beneficiaries in a hope to alleviate its financing pressure. In addition, broader issues of lack of a unified authority on pension policies, weak incentives of voluntary schemes, and complicacy of adjusting Civil Servants’ pension scheme are briefly discussed.
    Keywords: Old-age income; Social Security; Pension; Thailand
    JEL: H55 J26 D14 D02
    Date: 2021–08
  2. By: Cylus, Jonathan; Al Tayara, Lynn
    Abstract: Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. We estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017 to explore whether a healthy older working age population, as measured by age-specific Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), can moderate the relationship between an ageing labour force and real per capita GDP growth. Using country and year fixed effects models, we find that although an increase in the 55–69 year old share of the total population is associated with a reduction in real per capita GDP growth, the decline in economic growth is moderated if the population at that age is in good health. To demonstrate the magnitude of effects, we present model predicted real per capita GDP growth for a selection of countries from 2020 through 2100 comparing the 2017 country-specific baseline YLD rate to a simulated 5% improvement in YLDs. Our findings demonstrate that economic slowdowns attributable to population ageing are avoidable through policy interventions supporting healthy and active ageing.
    Keywords: economy; health; population ageing
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2021–10–01
  3. By: Fuchsman, Dillon (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); McGee, Josh (University of Arkansas); Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas)
    Abstract: Many states have recently made or are considering changes to their teacher retirement systems. However, little is known about how teachers value various elements of their retirement benefits versus other aspects of their jobs and compensation. To help alleviate this gap, we use a discrete choice stated preferences experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey of teachers to estimate their willingness-to-pay for various retirement plan characteristics and other non-salary job components. We find that teachers would be indifferent between a traditional pension and alternative retirement plan designs if the alternatives were paired with 2 to 3 percent salary increases. Our results indicate that experience is a significant mediator of retirement plan preferences. While more experienced teachers are willing to pay more to keep their traditional pension plans, inexperienced teachers do not have strong preferences around retirement plan type. However, teachers’ willingness-to-pay for traditional pension plans is less than their willingness-to-pay for many other elements of their compensation, including the value of retirement benefits, retirement age, salary growth, healthcare coverage, and Social Security enrollment.
    Keywords: teacher pensions; stated preferences; discrete choice experiment
    JEL: I20 J33
    Date: 2021–10–19
  4. By: Tomoki Isa (Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.)
    Abstract: Although the Bank of Japan has continued unconventional monetary easing over the years, it is still far from achieving the inflation target set by the central bank. On the back of this, there has been a growing interest in the relationship between demography and inflation, a relationship which conventional macroeconomics has not discussed much. Analyzing Japanese prefectural panel data, this paper examines demographic effects on inflation with linear regression based on the Phillips curve with some demographic variables. The result shows that the aging population has inflationary pressure on prices, while the declining population has deflationary pressure. The aging population also reduces the impact of population change and economic variation on prices, flattening the Phillips curve. As a result, this paper clarifies a multifaceted relationship between demography and inflation, suggesting that demography is not the main cause of deflation and low inflation in Japan.
    Keywords: inflation, deflation, Philipps curve, monetary policy, demography, aging population, population decline, old-age dependency ratio, Japanese economy
    JEL: C33 E31 E52 J11
    Date: 2021–07
  5. By: De Nardi, M.; French, E.; Bailey Jones, J.; McGee, R.
    Abstract: While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and highincome singles and generate transfers to nonspousal heirs whenever a household member dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to understand savings, it is important to model household structure, medical expenses, and bequest motives.
    Keywords: Savings, bequests, medical spending
    JEL: C51 D14 D15 I14
    Date: 2021–10–20
  6. By: Staalduinen, Willeke van; Dantas, Carina; Hoof, Joost Van; Klimczuk, Andrzej
    Abstract: The paper provides an introduction to the public discourse around the notion of smart healthy inclusive environments. First, the basic ideas are explained and related to citizen participation in the context of implementation of a "society for all ages" concept disseminated by the United Nations. Next, the text discusses selected initiatives of the European Commission in the field of intergenerational programming and policies as well as features of the COST Action NET4Age-Friendly: Smart Healthy Age-Friendly Environments (SHAFE). The following sections are focused on studying and discussing examples of projects and methodologies that have been aimed at: empowering facilitators of smart healthy inclusive environments, empowering citizens to deal with health emergencies, and supporting older people's voices. The conclusion covers selected recommendations for entities of public policy on ageing (ageing policy) as well as potential directions for further research.
    Keywords: Age-Friendly Cities and Communities,Citizen Participation,Inclusive Environments,Intergenerational Programmes and Policies,Smart Healthy Age-Friendly Environments (SHAFE),Society for All Ages
    JEL: O18 D19 Q58 R58
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Gao, Huajie; Ye, Chunhui
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2021–08
  8. By: Oude Mulders, Jaap; Henkens, C.J.I.M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Christian Dudel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Elke Loichinger (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Harun Sulak; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Niimi, Yoko
    Abstract: Using unique data from a Japanese survey, this paper examines whether flexible work arrangements targeted specifically at workers with caregiving responsibilities under the Child Care and Family Care Leave Act help family caregivers reconcile paid work with care provision. The regression results suggest that access to caregiver leave, which allows family caregivers to take a continuous leave of up to 93 days, is negatively and significantly associated with the probability of leaving one’s job within one year of the onset of demand for parental care. This alleviating effect of access to caregiver leave remains robust even in the longer term and in a specification where we take into account the possible endogeneity of care provision to the labor supply decision. The findings of this paper thus suggest that the caregiver leave introduced pursuant to the Act in Japan helps meet the need of family caregivers to take a certain period of time off from work to make the necessary arrangements for accommodating the sudden and unexpected demand for elderly care in their daily lives.
    Keywords: elderly care, informal care, flexible work, labor supply, long-term care, Japan, J14, J22
    Date: 2021–10
  11. By: Eileen Rocard (OECD); Paola Sillitti (OECD); Ana Llena-Nozal (OECD)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis has hit the long-term care (LTC) sector particularly hard, with large numbers of people dependent on care and particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 have fallen ill, and a disproportionate rate of LTC workers both exposed to, and infected by, COVID-19. The analysis presented in this report describes the effects of COVID-19 on LTC in OECD countries, mainly showing infection rates and mortality of LTC recipients. It takes stock of the wide range of policy responses that countries have implemented, detailing the changes over time on testing strategies, reduction of interactions and isolation measures, digitalisation of services, and workforce. The report also assesses emergency preparedness in the sector, as well as workforce, organisational and coordination challenges. Finally, the report analyses how policy responses affected care continuity and the well-being of residents while also outlining the effectiveness of vaccination.
    JEL: H75 I31 I38
    Date: 2021–10–21

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