nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2021‒06‒14
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Temporal Instability of Risk Preference among the Poor: Evidence from Payday Cycles By Mike Akesaka; Peter Eibich; Chie Hanaoka; Hitoshi Shigeoka
  2. Gender Wage and Longevity Gaps and the Design of Retirement Systems By Barigozzi, Francesca; Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie
  3. The 15-Hour Week: Keynes’s Prediction Revisited By Crafts, Nicholas
  4. The Effect of Involuntary Retirement on Healthcare Use and Health Status By Anikó Bíró; Réka Branyiczki; Péter Elek
  5. Education, Pension and Two-Sided Altruistic in an Endogenous Growth Model By Accolley, Delali; Langot, François
  6. Starzenie się populacji. Aktywizacja, koprodukcja i integracja społeczna osób starszych By Klimczuk, Andrzej; Gawron, Grzegorz; Szweda-Lewandowska, Zofia
  7. Les impacts financiers d’un virage vers le soutien à domicile au Québec By Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
  8. Health Misperception and Healthcare Utilisation among Older Europeans By Sonja Spitzer; Mujaheed Shaikh
  9. Linking Changes in Inequality in Life Expectancy and Mortality: Evidence from Denmark and the United States By Dahl, Gordon; Kreiner, Claus T.; Nielsen, Torben Heien; Serena, Benjamin Ly
  10. German Pension Simulation: Arbeitspapier zur Methodik eines anwartschaftsbasierten Projektionsmodells der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung By Seuffert, Stefan
  11. Population Aging and Migration By Panu Poutvaara
  12. Mettre le « value-based aging » au cœur des politiques de dépendance By Thomas Rapp; Quitterie Roquebert; Jonathan Sicsic
  13. Retired at last? Past working conditions and the role of retirement in health status By Thomas Barnay; Éric Defebvre

  1. By: Mike Akesaka (Osaka University); Peter Eibich (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Chie Hanaoka (Toyo University); Hitoshi Shigeoka (Simon Fraser University and NBER)
    Abstract: The poor live paycheck to paycheck and are repeatedly exposed to strong cyclical income fluctuations. We investigate whether such income fluctuations affect risk preference among the poor. If risk preference temporarily changes around payday, optimal decisions made before payday may no longer be optimal afterward, which could reinforce poverty. By exploiting Social Security payday cycles in the US, we find that risk preference among the poor relying heavily on Social Security changes around payday. Rather than cognitive decline before payday, the deterioration of mental health and relative deprivation may play a role. We find similar evidence among the Japanese elderly.
    Keywords: poverty, risk preference, Social Security, mental health, relative deprivation, elderly, Health and Retirement Survey, Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement
    JEL: D81 D91 I32
    Date: 2021–06
  2. By: Barigozzi, Francesca (University of Bologna); Cremer, Helmuth (Toulouse School of Economics); Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie (Toulouse School of Economics)
    Abstract: We study the design of pension benefits for male and female workers. Women live longer than men but have a lower wage. Individuals can be single or live in couples who pool their incomes. Social welfare is utilitarian but an increasing concave transformation of individuals' lifetime utilities introduces the concern for redistribution between individuals with different life-spans. We derive the optimal direction of redistribution and show how it is affected by a gender neutrality rule. With singles only, a simple utilitarian solution implies redistribution from males to females. When the transformation is sufficiently concave redistribution may or may not be reversed. With couples only, the ranking of gender retirement ages is always reversed when the transformation is sufficiently concave. Under gender neutrality pension schemes must be self-selecting. With singles only this implies distortions of retirement decision and restricts redistribution across genders. With couples, a first best that implies a lower retirement age for females can be implemented by a gender-neutral system. Otherwise, gender neutrality implies equal retirement ages and restricts the possibility to compensate the shorter-lived individuals. Calibrated simulations show that when singles and couples coexist, gender neutrality substantially limits redistribution in favor of single women and fully prevents redistribution in favor of male spouses.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, gender gap in longevity, retirement systems
    JEL: H55 H31 H21
    Date: 2021–05
  3. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Sussex and CAGE, University of Warwick)
    Abstract: In 1930 Keynes opined that by 2030 people would work only 15 hours per week. As such, this prediction will not be realised. However, expected lifetime hours of leisure and non-market work in the UK rose by 60 per cent between 1931 and 2011, considerably more than Keynes would have expected. This reflects increases in life expectancy at older ages and much longer expected periods of retirement. Leisure in retirement contributes to high life satisfaction for the elderly but building up savings to pay for it is a barrier to working only 15 hours per week.
    Keywords: Leisure ; Life Expectancy ; Retirement ; Work JEL Classification: J22 ; J26 ; N34
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Anikó Bíró (Health and Population Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4.); Réka Branyiczki (Central European University and TÁRKI); Péter Elek (Health and Population Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4. and Institute of Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest)
    Abstract: We analyse the causal effect of involuntary retirement on detailed indicators of healthcare use and health status. Our identification strategy is based on a pension reform in Hungary which forced public sector workers above the statutory retirement age to full time retirement. Using rich administrative data, we find that on the three-year horizon, involuntary retirement decreases the number of primary care doctor visits, the consumption of antiinfectives for systemic use and drugs of the respiratory system, and the non-zero spending on antiinfectives, the drugs of the alimentary tract and metabolism and of the cardiovascular system. We also find that the impact on the latter two drug categories is driven by the drop in income due to involuntary retirement. The effects of involuntary retirement are comparable to the short-run effects of voluntary retirement, identified from a change in the statutory retirement age. We conclude that there is little evidence for health deteriorating effects of involuntary retirement and provide explanations for the possible mechanisms behind our results.
    Keywords: healthcare use, involuntary retirement, voluntary retirement
    JEL: I10 J26
    Date: 2021–05
  5. By: Accolley, Delali; Langot, François
    Abstract: We have modeled jointly human capital accumulation through formal education and the various pillars of the Canadian retirement income system, using a three-period overlapping generations model with two-sided altruism. We have used this model to investigate the impacts on the real interest rate of the improvement in life expectancy in the presence of endogenous growth, as well as the impacts of raising various tax rates to finance the enhancement of pension plans. We have found that the endogenous accumulation of human capital through education reverts the decline in the real interest rate caused by the improvement in the life expectancy. We have also found that the best way of enhancing the Canada Pension Plan is not to raise the contribution rate, but to increase instead the maximum amount of earnings covered. ABSTRACT IN FRENCH- Nous avons modélisé conjointement l'accumulation du capital humain à travers l''éducation formelle et les divers piliers du système canadien de revenu de retraite, en utilisant un modèle de générations imbriquées sur trois périodes avec altruisme bilatéral. Nous avons utilisé ce modèle pour étudier les impacts de l'amélioration de l’espérance de vie sur le taux d'intérêt réel dans un contexte de croissance endogène, aussi bien que les impacts de l'augmentation de divers taux d'imposition dans le but de financer la bonification des programmes pension. Nous avons trouvé que l’accumulation endogène du capital humain à travers l’éducation renverse la baisse du taux d’intérêt réel causée par l’amélioration de l’espérance de vie. Nous avons aussi trouvé que la meilleure façon de bonifier le Régime de pensions du Canada n’est pas d’augmenter e taux de cotisation, mais plutôt d’augmenter le montant maximal de gains couverts.
    Keywords: demography, education, economic growth, human capital, overlapping generations, pension
    JEL: I25 O31 O41
    Date: 2021–05–13
  6. By: Klimczuk, Andrzej; Gawron, Grzegorz; Szweda-Lewandowska, Zofia
    Abstract: The study is illustrative and theoretical in nature, as it was based on a review of the available literature on the subject (Polish and foreign). The publication is addressed to both scholars and students dealing with the subjects of population ageing, old age, and older adults, as well as to a growing group of practitioners interested in these issues, including politicians and decision-makers as well as representatives of public services, the media, and non-governmental organizations.
    Keywords: old age; population ageing; activation; co-production; social integration; public policy on ageing
    JEL: J14 J18 J28 Z18
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
    Abstract: ollowing the publication of a first report by our group on the evaluation of future needs and costs related to the support of the autonomy of elderly people in Quebec (Clavet et al., 2021), this report aims to consider possible reform scenarios and to evaluate their impacts. They all have in common that they involve a major shift towards home care and services for people with moderate to major needs, and they all involve an adjustment of the resident's contribution to housing. According to our calculations, substantial savings are generated by the proposed reforms, compared to the status quo scenario. This makes it possible to improve home support through the creation of an autonomy account. With this account, the number of hours of publicly funded services is modulated according to the individual's support needs, thus ensuring horizontal equity in the system. Finally, we discuss the possibility of modulating public funding according to the person's financial resources, both in housing and home support, in order to improve vertical equity. Suite à la publication d’un premier rapport de notre groupe sur l’évaluation des besoins et des coûts futurs liés au soutien à l’autonomie des personnes âgées au Québec (Clavet et al., 2021), ce rapport vise à considérer des scénarios de réformes possibles et d’en évaluer les impacts. Ils ont tous en commun d’impliquer un virage important vers les soins et services à domicile pour les personnes ayant des besoins modérés à importants, et ils impliquent tous un ajustement de la contribution du résident en hébergement. Selon nos calculs, des économies substantielles sont dégagées grâce aux réformes proposées, en comparaison avec le scénario de statu quo. Cela permet de bonifier le soutien à domicile par le biais de la création d’un compte autonomie. Avec ce compte, le nombre d’heures de services financé par le secteur public est modulé selon les besoins de soutien de la personne, ce qui permet d’assurer l’équité horizontale du système. Finalement, nous discutons de la possibilité de moduler le financement public selon les ressources financières de la personne, tant en hébergement qu’en soutien à domicile, afin d’améliorer l’équité verticale.
    Keywords: public finance,aging population,loss of autonomy,home support,Quebec., finances publiques,vieillissement de la population,perte d’autonomie,soutien à domicile,Québec
    JEL: H51 H68 J14
    Date: 2021–05–27
  8. By: Sonja Spitzer; Mujaheed Shaikh
    Abstract: Health perception biases can have serious consequences on health. Despite their relevance, the role of such biases in determining healthcare utilisation is severely underexplored. Here we study the relationship between health misperception, doctor visits, and concomitant out-of-pocket expenditures for the population 50+ in Europe. We conceptualise health misperception as arising from either overconfidence or underconfidence, where overconfidence is measured as overestimation of health and underconfidence is measured as underestimation of health. Comparing objective performance measures and their self-reported equivalents from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we find that individuals who overestimate their health visit the doctor 14% less often than individuals who correctly assess their health, which is crucial for preventive care such as screenings. Lower healthcare utilisation is accompanied by lower out-of-pocket spending (38% less). In contrast, individuals who underestimate their health visit the doctor more often (28% more) and have higher out-of-pocket spending (17% more). We project that underestimating health of the population 50+ will cost the average European country Intl$ 71 million in 2020 and Intl$ 81 million by 2060. Country-specific estimates based on population and demographic projections show that countries such as Germany, Denmark and The Netherlands will experience significantly large costs of such misperception. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests and, more important, to various conceptualisations of the misperception measure.
    Keywords: Healthcare utilisation, health perception, overconfidence and underconfidence, doctor visits, out-of-pocket expenditures, SHARE data
    Date: 2020–01
  9. By: Dahl, Gordon; Kreiner, Claus T.; Nielsen, Torben Heien; Serena, Benjamin Ly
    Abstract: We decompose changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in "survivability". Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in life expectancy inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Cardiovascular mortality declines favored the poor, but differences in lifestyle-related survivability led inequality to rise.
    Keywords: inequality; Life Expectancy; Mortality
    JEL: I14 J10
    Date: 2020–07
  10. By: Seuffert, Stefan
    Abstract: Die Debatte um die Rentenpolitik ist ein zentraler Bestandteil des politischen Diskurses in Deutschland und kommt nicht zur Ruhe. Eine Abschätzung der Auswirkungen der in diesem Rahmen vorgeschlagenen Reformen auf die zukünftige Einnahmen- und Ausgabenstruktur der Rentenversicherung kann anhand von Rentensimulationsmodellen geschehen. Die vorliegende Arbeit erläutert das konkrete methodische Vorgehen zur Simulation der Allgemeinen Rentenversicherung im Rahmen des vorgestellten Modells "German Pension Simulation"(GPS). Ziel der Rentensimulation ist insbesondere die Abschätzung der zukünftigen Einnahmen und Ausgaben sowie des zukünftigen Leistungs- und Beitragssatzniveaus der Allgemeinen Rentenversicherung. Die Projektion basiert unter anderem auf einer Bevölkerungs- und Arbeitsmarktprojektion, einer einfachen Lohnprojektion sowie einer Fortschreibung der aktuellen altersspezifischen Rentenansprüche der Versicherten und Rentner.
    Keywords: Rentenprojektion,gesetzliche Rentenversicherung,Beitragssatz,Rentenniveau,Rentenwert
    JEL: C53 H55 H68 J11
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology.
    Keywords: international migration, population aging, demographic trends, fertility, immigrant workers
    JEL: F22 O15 J11 J13 J61
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Thomas Rapp (Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (LIEPP)); Quitterie Roquebert (Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)); Jonathan Sicsic (Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé, Université de Paris (LIRAES))
    Abstract: Avec le vieillissement de la population, l’accompagnement de perte d’autonomie et le bien-vieillir sont devenus des enjeux de politique publique majeurs. Une question centrale est celle de la pertinence des aides publiques : sont-elles centrées sur les besoins des personnes ? Nous montrons qu’il existe en effet une corrélation forte entre la santé perçue par nos aînés et leurs besoins de soins de longue durée (familiaux et professionnels). Nous préconisons de déployer une aide publique basée sur la notion de « value-based aging », c’est-à-dire finançant en priorité des aides centrées sur les attentes des aînés.
    Keywords: fragilité; perte d'autonomie; value-based aging
    Date: 2021–06
  13. By: Thomas Barnay; Éric Defebvre (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2021–05–27

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