nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2021‒05‒31
sixteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Slow Down Before You Stop: The Effect of the 2010 French Pension Reform on Older Teachers' Sick Leaves By D'Albis, Hippolyte; Fougère, Denis; Gouëdard, Pierre
  2. Can't save or won't save: financial resilience and discretionary retirement saving among British adults in their thirties and forties By Suh, Ellie
  3. Gender wage and longevity gaps and the design of retirement systems By Barigozzi, Francesca; Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie
  4. Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement? By Mariacristina De Nardi; Eric French; John Bailey Jones; Rory McGee
  5. Family composition and transitions into long-term care services among the elderly By Astri Syse; Alyona Artamonova; Michael Thomas; Marijke Veenstra
  6. Gender Differences in Access to Health Care Among the Elderly: Evidence from Southeast Asia By van der Meulen Rodgers , Yana; Zveglich, Jr. , Joseph E.
  7. Les impacts financiers d’un virage vers le soutien à domicile au Québec By Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
  8. Consumption and Income Inequality across Generations By Gallipoli, Giovanni; Low, Hamish; Mitra, Aruni
  9. The Impact of Social Security on Pension Claiming and Retirement: Active vs. Passive Decisions By Lalive, Rafael; Magesan, Arvind; Staubli, Stefan
  10. Are Tax-Favoured Savings Plans Effective in Raising Private Savings? By Ludmila Fadejeva; Olegs Tkacevs
  11. Aging and Automation in Economies with Search Frictions By Zhang, Xiaomeng; Palivos, Theodore; Liu, Xiangbo
  12. California's Paid Family Leave Law and the Employment of 45-64 Year Old Adults By Bartel, Ann P.; Kim, Soohyun; Ruhm, Christopher J.; Waldfogel, Jane
  13. Diferencia entre cuidados a la dependencia y cuidados de larga duración o long-term care. Una aclaración necesaria By Matus-López, Mauricio
  14. Population Aging and Migration By Poutvaara, Panu
  15. With a Little Help from My Mother. The Matrilineal Advantage in European Grand Parenting. By Brunello, Giorgio; Yamamura, Eiji
  16. Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation By Di Bucchianico, Stefano

  1. By: D'Albis, Hippolyte; Fougère, Denis; Gouëdard, Pierre
    Abstract: This paper proposes an evaluation of the pre-retirement consequences of a reform of the French pension system that increased the minimum legal retirement age. Our empirical strategy relies on the comparison of two groups of cohorts. The control group consists of cohorts not affected by the increase in the minimum legal retirement age while the treatment group consists of cohorts born later. Using a sample of 38,652 high-school teachers, we identify the effect of increasing the minimum retirement age on short sick leaves (i.e., of less than three months) by comparing probabilities to take at least one sick leave during a schooling year before retirement across the two groups. Estimates of panel data models show that teachers affected by the reform have an increased probability to take short sick leaves before retirement. This is mainly due to teachers who decide to retire at the minimum legal retirement age, while those who continue to work above the minimum retirement age do not increase the frequency of their short sick leaves before retirement. This last result is predicted by a theoretical model that analyzes the optimal retirement choice over the life-cycle, and it is confirmed by using an empirical strategy that distinguishes teachers according to their retirement age.
    Keywords: pension reform; Retirement age; sick leaves; teachers' absenteeism
    JEL: I12 J26
    Date: 2020–08
  2. By: Suh, Ellie
    Abstract: This study examines retirement saving activity outside the state and workplace pension saving schemes among British adults aged between 30 and 49 on the premise that individuals are increasingly encouraged to save for their retirement in the new pension policy structure in Britain. The issue of under-saving among the younger adults has been studied with the focus on internal characteristics, such as undesirable attitudinal or behavioural tendencies (‘won't save’), or on external factors, such as income (‘can't save’). Building on these discussions, this study tests the role of internal characteristics and further examines the interplay between internal and external factors. The decision-making process for retirement saving is mapped based on the Model of Financial Planning with minor modifications. The analysis utilises the fourth wave of the Wealth and Assets Survey (2012/2014), and is conducted in the structural equation modelling framework. Results show that younger adults’ discretionary retirement saving is an outcome of a complex interplay between internal and external factors. Financial resilience, which indicates current financial behaviours and wellbeing, is found to be the strongest predictor for identifying a discretionary retirement saver, but it is closely connected to individuals’ income and home-ownership. The findings also suggest that social and economic arrangements are important to consider as social ageing, individuals’ projection on their lifestages, may be more informative than age per se for understanding younger adults’ retirement saving behaviour. These findings have important implications for the policies that aim to increase retirement saving participation.
    Keywords: retirement saving; young adults; financial resilience; saving behaviours; structural equation modelling (SEM); Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS)
    JEL: F3 G3 N0
    Date: 2021–04–23
  3. By: Barigozzi, Francesca; Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie
    Abstract: We study the design of pension benets for male and female workers. Women live longer than men but have a lower wage. Individuals can be single or live in couples who pool their incomes. Social welfare is utilitarian but an increasing concave transforma- tion of individualslifetime utilities introduces the concern for redistribution between individuals with di¤erent life-spans. We derive the optimal direction of redistribution and show how it is a¤ected by a gender neutrality rule. With singles only, a simple utilitarian solution implies re- distribution from males to females. When the transformation is su¢ ciently concave redistribution may or may not be reversed. With couples only, the ranking of gender retirement ages is always reversed when the transformation is su¢ ciently concave. Under gender neutrality pension schemes must be self-selecting. With singles only this implies distortions of retirement decision and restricts redistribution across genders. With couples, a rst best that implies a lower retirement age for females can be im- plemented by a gender-neutral system. Otherwise, gender neutrality implies equal re- tirement ages and restricts the possibility to compensate the shorter-lived individuals. Calibrated simulations show that when singles and couples coexist, gender neutrality substantially limits redistribution in favor of single women and fully prevents redistri- bution in favor of male spouses.
    Keywords: Gender wage gap; gender gap in longevity; retirement systems
    JEL: H55 H31 H21
    Date: 2021–04
  4. By: Mariacristina De Nardi; Eric French; John Bailey Jones; Rory McGee
    Abstract: While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and high-income singles, and generate transfers to non-spousal heirs whenever a household member dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to understand savings, it is important to model household structure, medical expenses, and bequest motives.
    JEL: D1 D12 D15 E21
    Date: 2021–05
  5. By: Astri Syse (Statistics Norway); Alyona Artamonova; Michael Thomas (Statistics Norway); Marijke Veenstra
    Abstract: Elderly’s use of long-term care (LTC) services are likely to be influenced by family members, but there is scarce research on the role played by partners and/or adult children, especially taking geographic proximity into account. We thus examine how partners and adult children influence elderly’s LTC use, taking regional differences into account. We employ logistic discrete-time hazard regression models on linked registry data for complete cohorts of elderly individuals (65+ years), their partners, their adult children, residing in Norway in the period 2010-2016 (N=820 000). We also include municipal characteristics. One’s own, partner’s and child(ren)’s characteristics are all associated with elderly individuals’ LTC use. Partners’ resources matter the most, but those of adult children are relevant when partners are less resourceful or absent. Childless elderly use more LTC services than elderly with children, and elderly with resourceful children living nearby use the least LTC services. The trends are similar across municipalities, but the magnitudes vary slightly depending on their geographic location and sociodemographic and economic resources. Future demographic and economic changes warrant a better understanding of the role played by family members for elderly’s use of LTC services.
    Keywords: Care use, Family, Formal care, Geographic, Informal care, Long-term care (LTC)
    JEL: I10 I12 I18 J10 H41
    Date: 2021–05
  6. By: van der Meulen Rodgers , Yana (Rutgers University); Zveglich, Jr. , Joseph E. (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Populations become increasingly feminized with age. Since older women are more vulnerable to poverty, they may find it more difficult than men to access health care. This study examines factors that may constrain older persons in Southeast Asia from meeting their health-care needs when sick. Our analysis of household survey data from Cambodia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam shows that women are more likely to have reported sickness or injury than men, a difference that is meaningful and statistically significant. While women in Cambodia and the Philippines are more likely to seek treatment than men, the gender difference is reversed in Viet Nam where stigma and discrimination associated with some diseases may more strongly deter women. The probability of seeking treatment rises with age more sharply for women than men in all countries. However, for the subsample of elders, the gender difference is not significant.
    Keywords: elderly; gender; health; health care; women
    JEL: I14 J16 O53
    Date: 2021–02–12
  7. By: Nicholas-James Clavet; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux
    Abstract: Suite à la publication d’un premier rapport de notre groupe sur l’évaluation des besoins et des coûts futurs liés au soutien à l’autonomie des personnes âgées au Québec (Clavet et al., 2021), ce rapport vise à considérer des scénarios de réformes possibles et d’en évaluer les impacts. Ils ont tous en commun d’impliquer un virage important vers les soins et services à domicile pour les personnes ayant des besoins modérés à importants, et ils impliquent tous un ajustement de la contribution du résident en hébergement. Selon nos calculs, des économies substantielles sont dégagées grâce aux réformes proposées, en comparaison avec le scénario de statu quo. Cela permet de bonifier le soutien à domicile par le biais de la création d’un compte autonomie. Avec ce compte, le nombre d’heures de services financé par le secteur public est modulé selon les besoins de soutien de la personne, ce qui permet d’assurer l’équité horizontale du système. Finalement, nous discutons de la possibilité de moduler le financement public selon les ressources financières de la personne, tant en hébergement qu’en soutien à domicile, afin d’améliorer l’équité verticale.
    Keywords: finances publiques, vieillissement de la population, perte d’autonomie, soutien à domicile, Québec.
    JEL: H51 H68 J14
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Gallipoli, Giovanni; Low, Hamish; Mitra, Aruni
    Abstract: We characterize the joint evolution of cross-sectional inequality in earnings, other sources of income and consumption across generations in the U.S. To account for cross-sectional dispersion, we estimate a model of intergenerational persistence and separately identify the influences of parental factors and of idiosyncratic life-cycle components. We find evidence of family persistence in earnings, consumption and saving behaviours, and marital sorting patterns. However, the quantitative contribution of idiosyncratic heterogeneity to cross-sectional inequality is significantly larger than parental effects. Our estimates imply that intergenerational persistence is not high enough to induce further large increases in inequality over time and across generations.
    Keywords: Consumption; Income; inequality; Intergenerational Persistence
    JEL: D1 D64 E24
    Date: 2020–08
  9. By: Lalive, Rafael; Magesan, Arvind; Staubli, Stefan
    Abstract: We exploit a unique Swiss reform to identify the importance of passivity, claiming social security benefits at the Full Retirement Age (FRA). Sharp discontinuities generated by the reform reveal that raising the FRA while imposing small early claiming penalties significantly delays pension claiming and retirement, but imposing large penalties and holding the FRA fixed does not. The nature of the reform allows us to identify that between 47 and 69% of individuals are passive, while imposing additional structure point identifies the fraction at 67%. An original survey of Swiss pensioners reveals that reference-dependent preferences is the main source of passivity.
    Keywords: Full retirement age; reference dependence; regression discontinuity design; Social Security
    JEL: H55 J21 J26
    Date: 2020–08
  10. By: Ludmila Fadejeva (Bank of Latvia); Olegs Tkacevs (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of tax-favoured savings on total private savings using data for Latvia contained in HFCS 2014 and 2017. The survey shows that contributions to tax-favoured savings plans are not associated with lower consumer spending and therefore do not contribute to an increase in private savings. Instead, these savings are achieved by lowering other savings. This substitution effect on other savings remains statistically significant even when excluding households with very low consumption levels and the ones whose reference person is relatively young/old and with a low level of education. However, the observed effect is not significant at the very bottom of the distribution of non-favoured savings. Since participation in tax-favoured savings plans is mainly associated with households in the upper income quintile, the results of this study raise concerns that without additional measures to encourage retirement savings, particularly in the lower segment of the savings distribution, income inequality among retirees will continue rising.
    Keywords: tax incentives, saving, private pension funds, HFCS
    JEL: D14 H24 H31 H55
    Date: 2021–03–24
  11. By: Zhang, Xiaomeng; Palivos, Theodore; Liu, Xiangbo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of an increase in life expectancy on the level and the distribution of income in the presence of skill heterogeneity and automation capital. It shows analytically that an increase in life expectancy induces the replacement of low-skilled workers by automation capital and high-skilled workers. It also raises the skill premium, but has an ambiguous effect on total income. When we perform a simulation exercise, based on US data, we find that an increase in life expectancy raises the level of income but exacerbates its distribution. For this reason, we also examine redistributive policies that can mitigate some of the negative effects that follow an increase in life expectancy.
    Keywords: Life Expectancy; Automation; Search and Matching; Skill Heterogeneity
    JEL: J11 J24 J64 O33
    Date: 2021–05–25
  12. By: Bartel, Ann P. (Columbia University); Kim, Soohyun (Columbia University); Ruhm, Christopher J. (University of Virginia); Waldfogel, Jane (Columbia University)
    Abstract: Paid family leave allows workers to take time off from work to care for a family member with a serious health condition, with reduced financial risk and increased job continuity. In 2004, California was the first state in the nation to implement a paid family leave program allowing workers to take up to eight weeks off work with partial pay to care for their own or a family member's serious health condition. While the effects of California's law on the labor supply of parents of newborns have been extensively studied, the role of paid family leave in the labor supply of workers who may need to provide care for a spouse has not been studied widely. We examine the effects of California's law on the employment of workers who are aged 45-64 and have a disabled spouse, using the 2001-2008 American Community Survey. Our preferred estimates suggest the paid leave program increased the employment of 45-64 year old women with a disabled spouse in California by around 0.9 percentage points (or 1.4% on a pre-law base rate of 65.9%) in the post-law period compared to their counterparts in other states, with a 2.9 percentage point rise in private sector employment. The employment of men with a disabled spouse in California also increased, but by a smaller amount: 0.7 percentage points (or 0.8% on a pre-law base 86.8%) (with a non-significant 0.4 percentage point decrease in private sector employment).
    Keywords: paid family leave, older workers, employment
    JEL: J01 J20 J22
    Date: 2021–05
  13. By: Matus-López, Mauricio
    Abstract: Latin America is rapidly aging and demands for dependency care are growing. Uruguay and Costa Rica have initiated a national care policy and other countries in the region such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico are considering doing so. However, despite the advance in scientific evidence in recent years, there is confusion in the content of these systems. In international literature, these models are framed under the term long-term care, with their most direct translation into Spanish of cuidados de larga duración, but which, until now, has been assimilated to that of dependencia. They are not exactly the same and this has implications for the design of policies. This work proposes an analysis framework for the conceptualization of both terms and policies.
    Keywords: dependence, long-term care, care, older adults, disability, Latin America.
    JEL: I15 I18
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich)
    Abstract: International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology.
    Keywords: international migration, population aging, demographic trends, fertility, immigrant workers
    JEL: F22 O15 J11 J13 J61
    Date: 2021–05
  15. By: Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Yamamura, Eiji (Seinan Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This study documents the matrilineal advantage in grandparent – grandchildren relationships in Europe, using data on 20 European countries and Israel from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE). We show that maternal grandparents look after grandchildren and provide financial or material gifts to children more than paternal grandparents do. In exchange, daughters help their parents with personal care, household tasks and paperwork more than sons do. The matrilineal advantage is stronger for grandmothers than for grandfathers, and stronger in the more conservative societies of Southern Europe, where gender inequality is higher and trust in others is lower.
    Keywords: childcare, Europe, family
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2021–05
  16. By: Di Bucchianico, Stefano
    Abstract: The mainstream concept of Secular Stagnation provides a comprehensive theoretical picture to explain sluggish economic growth and engenders a renewed role for fiscal policy. For these reasons, it should be praised. Given the difficulties entailed by the theoretical framework in which the theory is located, this paper offers a perspective on US stagnation that is grounded in some of the same foundational elements of the mainstream attempt (inequality, sluggish population growth and ageing, household debt, housing bubble) but relies on a model in which growth is driven by the autonomous components of aggregate demand. Stagnation is the result of the failure to move from a household debt-plus-bubble-led model to a model led by public expenditure. In the course of the analysis, a new treatment of ageing is offered.
    Keywords: Secular Stagnation,natural rate of interest,fiscal policy,aggregate demand,supermultiplier
    JEL: E31 E40 E52 E58
    Date: 2021

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