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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Diego Wachs; Jorge Onrubia |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we used an overlapping generations model to analyse the effects of such reforms over fiscal sustainability, adequacy, and fairness of public pension systems. We looked at three scenarios defined by the mechanisms indexing retirement age: a constant pensions fiscal balance, constant life expectancy after retirement, and constant disability-free life expectancy after retirement. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2021-05&r=all |
| By: | Teresa Ghilarducci; Michael Papadopoulos; Bridget Fisher; Anthony Webb (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Working longer is often proposed as the solution to the retirement crisis caused by older workers’ lack of retirement assets. Spreadsheet models used by advocates of delaying retirement assume older workers delay claiming Social Security to accrue additional benefits. But in reality, by age 65, most older workers have already claimed Social Security, often to supplement low wages, and working longer does not increase their Social Security benefits. Working longer increases retirement savings significantly less than predicted by spreadsheet models, which don’t reflect older workers’ real experiences in the labor market. Finally, the drastic job loss experienced by older workers in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis reveals the risk older workers face when working longer is the policy substitute for an effective retirement security system. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, Public health, Social security, Working longer, Workers, Jobs, Unemployment, Risk, Older workers, retirement income, retirement, retirement savings |
| JEL: | E24 I14 J62 J38 E21 J83 J32 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepapn:2021-01&r=all |
| By: | Retirement Equity Lab (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | An examination of the state of the retirement system and savings in 2020 reveals, if we do nothing to fix our retirement system, 43 million people now in their fifties and early sixties will be poor or near-poor elders, owing to both the recession and to inadequate retirement plans.1 Widespread retirement insecurity weakens older workers’ bargaining power. Without a solid fallback plan, older workers must accept whatever wages are offered. This chartbook is a resource for workers, employers, media, policymakers, scholars, and the broader public, to answer questions about the state of older working America and retirement income security. |
| Keywords: | older workers, recession, COVID-19, downward mobility, poverty, unemployment, wages, savings, involuntary retirement, social security, retirement system, 401k |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J38 J60 J88 J58 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepapb:2020-03&r=all |
| By: | Gustafsson, Johan (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the life-cycle effects of favorable marginal tax treatment of older workers on their optimal life-cycle labor supply, retirement timing, and savings. I develop a structural model in continuous time where the life-cycle of a representative agent is divided into three distinct phases: pre-treatment, post-treatment, and retirement. Solutions for consumption/savings, labor supply/leisure, and retirement timing are then obtained by solving the model as a salvage value problem. I then calibrate the model to Swedish earnings data and find that the increased extensive margin labor supply is partially offset by a reduction of the hours of work in the pre-treatment period. The total effect is however an increase in life-cycle labor supply, and consumption. |
| Keywords: | Retirement age; life cycle; tax heterogeneity; savings; consumption; leisure |
| JEL: | D15 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0985&r=all |
| By: | Retirement Equity Lab (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | An examination of the status of older workers in the third quarter of 2020 reveals two highlights: millions of older workers have been pushed out of the workforce due to the Covid-19 recession and there is an increased risk of more involuntary retirements to come. Policy recommendations include Congress increasing and extending unemployment benefits for older workers, discourage withdrawals from 401(k)s and IRAs, lower Medicare eligibility to 50, and create a federal Older Workers Bureau. |
| Keywords: | older workers, recession, COVID-19, coronavirus, downward mobility, poverty, unemployment, wages, involuntary retirement, retirement, 401k, Medicare, Older Workers Bureau |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J38 J60 J88 J58 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepapb:2020-04&r=all |
| By: | Retirement Equity Lab (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | An examination of the status of older workers in the fourth quarter of 2020 reveals three highlights: unemployment rates for workers 55 and older exceeded those of mid-career workers for the length of the pandemic — the first time since 1973 such an unemployment gap has persisted for six months or longer; Older workers lost jobs faster and returned to work slower than mid-career workers, creating an unemployment gap of 1.1 percentage points between older workers’ six-month average unemployment rate of 9.7% and mid-career workers’ rate of 8.6%; and Older workers who are Black, female, or lack a college degree experienced higher rates of job loss and are more exposed to retirement risks. Policy recommendations include Congress increasing and extending unemployment benefits for older workers, discourage withdrawals from 401(k)s and IRAs, lower Medicare eligibility to 50, and create a federal Older Workers Bureau. |
| Keywords: | older workers, recession, COVID-19, coronavirus, downward mobility, poverty, unemployment, wages, involuntary retirement, retirement, 401k, Medicare, Older Workers Bureau, racial disparities, disparities, inequality |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J38 J60 J88 J58 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepapb:2020-05&r=all |
| By: | Retirement Equity Lab (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | An examination of the status of older workers in the fourth quarter of 2020 reveals three highlights: After a partial recovery between May and August of 2020, older workers’ labor force participation rate fell continuously, reaching its lowest point of the recession in January. Roughly 1.1 million older workers exited the workforce between August and January due to the pandemic recession; older workers’ unemployment rate fell in January 2020 by 0.7 percentage points but the decline was driven by unemployed workers leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs; and since October of 2020, the decline in employment for Black, Hispanic, and Asian older workers was more than twice that of white older workers. Policy recommendations include Congress facilitating older workers’ return to work with aggressive anti-age discrimination enforcement and expanded unemployment benefits. Congress must also lower the Medicare eligibility age to age 50 and make the program “first payer†to lower the cost of hiring older workers. |
| Keywords: | older workers, recession, COVID-19, coronavirus, downward mobility, poverty, unemployment, wages, involuntary retirement, retirement, 401k, Medicare, Older Workers Bureau, racial disparities, disparities, inequality |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J38 J60 J88 J58 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepapb:2021-01&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas-James Clavet; Yann Décarie; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux |
| Abstract: | Première étape d’une étude de notre groupe, ce cahier de recherche vise à faire état des besoins futurs en termes de soutien à l’autonomie des personnes âgées au Québec et d’en estimer les coûts. Les projections sont faites en fonction du niveau des besoins (Profils IsoSMAF) ainsi que selon le milieu de vie, afin de cerner les défis à venir. Une modélisation détaillée des coûts est réalisée à partir de plusieurs sources de données publiques. Les résultats des simulations démontrent clairement que les besoins croîtront de plus en plus rapidement durant les deux prochaines décennies. Les coûts deviendront vite prohibitifs et cela même en conservant le niveau de services actuel. Par ailleurs, les projections du scénario de statu quo démontrent qu’il faudrait développer plus de 40 000 nouvelles places en CHSLD d’ici 2040. Cela représente un doublement de la capacité actuelle en CHSLD. Enfin, ce rapport propose un cadre permettant d’envisager différents scénarios pouvant rencontrer les besoins de la population dans un environnement plus soutenable financièrement. |
| Keywords: | finances publiques, vieillissement de la population, perte d’autonomie, Profils Iso-SMAF, Québec. |
| JEL: | H51 H68 J14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2101&r=all |
| By: | Enrique Devesa; Rafael Domenech |
| Abstract: | El aumento de la esperanza de vida, la jubilación de las generaciones del baby boom y el déficit actuarial del actual sistema de pensiones en España amenaza con agravar el problema de sostenibilidad ya existente. Las alternativas para resolver este problema de sostenibilidad son tres. La primera consiste en traspasar todo el ajuste a los futuros contribuyentes, con un importante aumento de impuestos para financiar las necesidades crecientes de gasto en pensiones, con una importante redistribución intergeneracional. La segunda es mantener el cálculo de la pensión inicial y el actual desequilibrio actuarial, y proteger a los contribuyentes de cualquier aumento de impuestos, de manera el ajuste recaiga sobre las pensiones vigentes con revalorizaciones por debajo de la inflación en la cuantía necesaria para corregir el desequilibrio. La tercera alternativa consiste en implantar un sistema de reparto de cuentas nocionales individuales que elimine el desequilibrio actuarial y financiero del sistema e incentive el retraso de la edad de jubilación. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdapop:2021-02&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Yann Décarie; Luc Godbout; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux; Suzie St-Cerny |
| Abstract: | La société québécoise vieillit et la pression exercée sur les dépenses publiques, particulièrement sur celles du ministère de la Santé, nécessite un financement important. Dans les prochaines décennies, le vieillissement de la population entrainera une croissance économique plus lente et conséquemment, une croissance plus lente des revenus gouvernementaux. Ce texte explore comment des changements de modes d’imposition, à coût nul aujourd’hui, pourraient aider à amoindrir le ralentissement de la croissance des revenus de nos gouvernements. Après analyse, il apparaît qu’un déplacement des impôts sur le revenu vers les taxes à la consommation permettrait de dégager des gains de revenus autonomes à long terme pour le Gouvernement du Québec (sur un horizon de 40 ans). |
| Keywords: | recettes fiscales, vieillissement, dosage fiscal, tax mix, Québec. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2102&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas-James Clavet; Yann Décarie; Réjean Hébert; Pierre-Carl Michaud; Julien Navaux |
| Abstract: | Cet article présente les éléments clefs d'un cahier de la Chaire de recherche sur les enjeux économiques intergénérationnels publié en février 2021. Il fait état des besoins futurs en termes de soutien à l’autonomie des personnes âgées au Québec et tente d’en estimer les coûts. Les résultats des simulations montrent que les besoins croîtront de plus en plus rapidement durant les deux prochaines décennies. Les coûts deviendront vite prohibitifs, même en conservant le niveau de services actuel. Ce cahier propose un cadre permettant d’envisager différents scénarios pouvant rencontrer les besoins de la population dans un environnement plus soutenable financièrement. |
| Keywords: | , Finances publiques,Vieillissement de la population,Perte d'autonomie,Profils Iso-SMAF,Québec |
| Date: | 2021–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2021pe-02&r=all |
| By: | Gillian Gray (Centre for Innovation Management Research, Birkbeck, University of London, UK); Helen Lawton Smith (Department of Management, Birkbeck College, University of London) |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:img:wpaper:46&r=all |