nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒12‒14
thirteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Towards Better Adequacy and Sustainability A Review of Pension Systems and Pension Reforms in Eastern Partnership Countries By Henrik Huitfeldt
  2. Pension and Health Services Utilization: Evidence from Social Pension Expansion in China By Chen, Shanquan; Chen, Xi; Law, Stephen; Lucas, Henry; Tang, Shenlan; Long, Qian; Xue, Lei; Wang, Zheng
  3. Antecedents of 'Grey Divorces' in Europe: The Role of Children and Grandchildren By Giammarco Alderotti; Cecilia Tomassini; Daniele Vignoli
  4. Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets By Böhm, Michael Johannes; Gregory, Terry; Qendrai, Pamela; Siegel, Christian
  5. Forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy in the year of Covid-19 By Francesca Di Iorio; Stefano Fachin
  6. Private asset income in France: Is there a breakdown of intergenerational equity between 1979 and 2011? By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ikpidi Badji; Najat El Mekkaoui; Julien Navaux
  7. The Adverse and Beneficial effects of Front-Loaded Pension Contributions By Westerhout, Ed
  8. Pension Reform in the Netherlands By Westerhout, Ed
  9. The COVID-19 pandemic : Lessons for financially fragile and aging societies By van Dalen, Hendrik Peter; Henkens, C.J.I.M.
  10. The Elderly Care Response to COVID-19 By World Bank
  11. A comparison of health care spending by age in eight high-income countries By Papanicolas, Irene; Marino, Alberto; Jha, Ashish
  12. Who Bears the Brunt? The Impact of Banking Crises on Younger and Older Workers By van Dijk, Mathijs; van Dalen, Harry; Hyde, Martin
  13. Successfully Adapting Health and Social Care to an Older Population in Croatia By World Bank

  1. By: Henrik Huitfeldt
    Abstract: This discussion paper reviews the state of play of pension systems and recent reforms in the Eastern Partnership countries and discusses outstanding challenges and options for further reforms. Pension systems in the Eastern Partnership countries are confronted with changing demographics and an ageing population, decreasing formal employment, and a legacy from the Soviet Union with persistent features such as low statutory retirement ages and exemptions and privileges for many different categories of workers. This led to significant difficulties of the pension systems in the region to provide for adequacy of pension benefits and fiscal sustainability. Following the 2008 economic and financial crisis, discussions on more comprehensive pension reforms have gained renewed interest and some reforms have been launched. However, recent reforms have often only addressed parts of the challenges of the pension systems. The focus has been on improving the financial sustainability of the mandatory public pension schemes, often by raising the statutory retirement age. More comprehensive pension reforms, including structural reforms to broaden the base of contributors, would be needed to create sustainable systems with the ability to provide fair and adequate pensions to the old-age population.
    JEL: I31 I38 J11 J14
    Date: 2020–10
  2. By: Chen, Shanquan; Chen, Xi; Law, Stephen; Lucas, Henry; Tang, Shenlan; Long, Qian; Xue, Lei; Wang, Zheng
    Abstract: The proportion of people aged 60 years or over is growing faster than other age groups. The well-being older adults depend heavily on their state of health. This study evaluates the effects of pensions on older adults' health service utilization, and estimates the size of pension required to influence such utilization. Using a nationally representative survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we adopted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and undertook segmented regression analysis. Pension demonstrated heterogeneous effects on health service utilization by income. We show that pension encouraged low-income individuals to use both outpatient (OR = 1.219, 95% 1.018-1.460) and inpatient services (OR = 1.269, 95% 1.020-1.579). In the meantime, it promoted self-treatment, specifically over-the-counter (OR = 1.208, 95% 1.037-1.407; OR = 1.206, 95% 1.024-1.419; respectively) and traditional Chinese medicines (OR = 1.452, 95% 1.094-1.932; OR = 1.456, 95% 1.079-1.955; respectively) among all income groups. However, receiving a pension had no effect on the frequency of outpatient or inpatient service use. Breakpoints for pension to promote health service utilization were mainly located in the range 55-95 CNY (7.1-12.3 EUR or 8.0-13.8 USD). Our study enriches the literature on pension and healthcare-seeking behaviour, and can be helpful in policy design and model formulation.
    Keywords: pension,health services utilization,regression discontinuity design,segmented regression
    JEL: I11 I18 J14 H55
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Cecilia Tomassini (Università del Molise); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: So-called 'grey divorces' – i.e. voluntary union dissolutions after age 50 – have received growing attention in the press as well as non-academic discourse. Nonetheless, while there is a vast amount of research on the socio-demographic, health-related and economic consequences of divorce at older ages, few studies have analysed the trends and correlates of grey divorces. Moreover, these studies are largely limited to the United States. This paper aims to fill this gap using data from six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We document the antecedents of divorce in later life across Europe, shedding light on a rare but demographically and sociologically interesting phenomenon. Our results show that the determinants of grey divorce largely do not differ from the classical antecedents of divorce early in life. However, we also detected and discuss a few determinants specific to grey divorces, such as the presence of children and grandchildren.
    Keywords: Grey divorces; Union dissolution; Children; Grandchildren; Ageing; Europe
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2020–12
  4. By: Böhm, Michael Johannes (University of Bonn); Gregory, Terry (IZA); Qendrai, Pamela (IZA); Siegel, Christian (University of Kent)
    Abstract: Like many other countries, Germany has experienced rapid population and workforce ageing, yet with substantial variation across regions. In this paper we first use this spatial variation between 1975 and 2014 to estimate quasi-causal supply effects of ageing on regional labour market outcomes, drawing on the identification strategy of Böhm and Siegel (2020). We find in our panel of German labour market regions that workforce mean age has considerable negative effects on the wage returns to age. We also obtain suggestive evidence that relative employment rates of older workers decline when mean age rises. A decomposition of the heterogeneous regional trends using our estimates shows that ageing of rural regions is mainly driven by supply (reflecting local population dynamics) whereas urban ageing is driven by demand (reflecting responses to economic conditions). We discuss the differential implications of these drivers for regional policy.
    Keywords: ageing, demographic change, regional differences, wage returns to age
    JEL: J11 J31 R23
    Date: 2020–11
  5. By: Francesca Di Iorio (University of Naples Federico II); Stefano Fachin ("Sapienza" University of Rome)
    Abstract: Forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy is an issue of critical importance made arguably more dicult by the e ects of current Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper we compare the performances of a simple random walk model (benchmark), three variants of the standard Lee-Carter model (Lee-Carter, Lee-Miller, Booth-Maindonald-Smith), the Hyndman-Ullah functional data analysys model, and a general factor model. We use both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, as the latter are arguably more suitable to capture preferences of forecast users such as insurance companies and pension and health system planners. In a counterfactual study, designed exploiting the particular features of Italian data, we reproduce the likely impact of Covid-19 on forecasts using 2020 as a jump-off year. To put the results in perspective, we also carry out out a general assessment on 1950-2016 data for three countries with very diverse demographic profiles, France, Italy and USA. While the results with these latter datasets suggest that in normal conditions the Lee-Miller and Hyndman-Ullah models are somehow superior,from the counterfactual study the best option appears to be the Booth-Maindonald- Smith model.
    Keywords: Mortality forecasting, life expectancy forecasting, Lee-Carter, factor model, Covid-19.
    JEL: C12 C33 C55
    Date: 2020–11
  6. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Najat El Mekkaoui (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (uOttawa - University of Ottawa [Ottawa])
    Abstract: We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate private asset income by age for the years 1979–2011. We analyze age profiles using three indicators of intergenerational equity. Monetary asset income shows no evidence of generational breaks to the benefit of the baby‐boom generation. On the contrary, baby‐boomers suffered from the high interest rates that they paid to become homeowners. Imputed rents show an obvious breakdown of intergenerational equity when we use an inter‐age and intergenerational indicator. This indicator compares the per capita asset income at a given age with the average asset income of people aged 18‐85. It gives the relative situation of one age group compared to its contemporaries and it also gives the relative situation of one generation when we compare birth cohorts over time. We find that the cohort born in 1950 benefited from a better position than their successors. Moreover, the cohorts born before the war and during the war appear to be even more favored than the baby‐boomers. The cohorts born in 1930 and in 1940 have a better situation than the previous generations and a better position than the following generations.
    Keywords: National Transfer Accounts,Private Asset Income,Intergenerational Equity
    Date: 2020–10
  7. By: Westerhout, Ed (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Westerhout, Ed (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2020
  9. By: van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Henkens, C.J.I.M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2020
  10. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Policy and Management Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Health, Nutrition and Population - Public Health Promotion Industry - Health Care Services Industry
    Date: 2020–06
  11. By: Papanicolas, Irene; Marino, Alberto; Jha, Ashish
    Abstract: The United States spends more on health care than any other country.1 Unlike many other high-income countries, which have largely uniform financing schemes for health care, the US has different financing schemes for different populations. The degree to which this fragmentation in US financing explains higher spending is not clear. Some policy makers believe that expanding the Medicare model, which has a financing system that more closely resembles that of other high-income countries (ie, it is government run and tax financed), could reduce spending substantially. To examine whether this policy has potential, this cross-sectional study compared nominal and relative spending in the US, by 5-year age groupings, with that of other high-income countries that have more homogenous financing systems. This comparison allows us to better understand spending differentials between the US and other countries for people aged 65 years or older, as well as for other age groups.
    JEL: E6
    Date: 2020–08–06
  12. By: van Dijk, Mathijs; van Dalen, Harry (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Hyde, Martin
    Date: 2019
  13. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Demographics Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Policy and Management Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Industry - Health Care Services Industry
    Date: 2020–06

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