nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒12‒07
fourteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Demographic change and the rate of return in PAYG pension systems By Schön, Matthias
  2. Pension information and women's awareness By Marta Angelici; Daniela Del Boca; Noemi Oggero; Paola Profeta; Maria Cristina Rossi; Claudia Villosio
  3. Personalized Digital Information and Tax-favoured Retirement Savings: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Administrative Data By Claudio Daminato; Massimo Filippini; Fabio Haufler
  4. Policy Brief on Age Management: Ergonomic aspects and health interventions for older workers By Bediova, Monika; Krejcova, Aneta; Cerny, Jiri; Klimczuk, Andrzej; Mikus, Juraj
  5. Old age or dependence. Which social insurance? By Nishimura, Yukihiro; Pestieau, Pierre
  6. Age-related taxation of bequests in the presence of a dependency risk By Leroux, Marie-Louise; Pestieau, Pierre
  7. Enjeux et perspectives démographiques en France 2020-2050 By Gilles Pison; Sandrine Dauphin
  8. Civil service pension reform in developing countries: Experiences and lessons By OECD
  9. Age cohort effects on unemployment in the US: Evidence from the regional level By Ochsen, Carsten
  10. Endogenous fertility, externality and phase out of pensions By Amol; Monisankar Bishnu; Harsh Kumar; Tridip Ray
  11. Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach By Guy Tchuente; Hector Galindo-Silva; Nibene Habib Some
  12. Age-Based Policy in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic By Van Rens, Thijs; Oswald, Andrew J.
  13. Retirement decision and optimal consumption-investment under addictive habit persistence By Guohui Guan; Zongxia Liang; Fengyi Yuan
  14. Assessing the Needs of the Elderly in Integrated Health and Social Services in the Russian Federation By E. V. Selezneva; O. V. Sinyavskaya; E.S. Gorvat

  1. By: Schön, Matthias
    Abstract: The currently observed demographic change consists of two independent develop-ments that differ in structure and persistence: (1) A slow, monotonic and (presum-ably) permanent ageing effect caused by an increasing life expectancy; (2) a morerapidly changing, non-monotonic and less permanent cohort effect caused by fluc-tuations in the size of cohorts. This paper shows the ageing effect has a positiveimpact on the rates of return households generate within pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. The cohort effect, by contrast, results in winners and losers in PAYG systems. Taking Germany as an example and using a quantitative OLG model the paper shows that the two effects cause rate of return differentials withinthe pension system of almost 1.3 percentage points between generations.
    Keywords: Demographic Change,Pension System,OLG Models
    JEL: E27 E62 H55 J11 J26
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Marta Angelici; Daniela Del Boca; Noemi Oggero; Paola Profeta; Maria Cristina Rossi; Claudia Villosio
    Abstract: We explore the role of financial and pension information in increasing women’s knowledge and awareness of their future pension status, and consequently, in reducing the gender pension gap. A representative sample of 1249 Italian working women were interviewed to assess their knowledge about pensions and financial issues and about their own savings and personal wealth planned for retirement. The responses showed that their knowledge and awareness of retirement planning was limited. We then ran a randomized experiment to evaluate the effect of increased information regarding pensions on women’s awareness, knowledge, and behaviors. Women in the treated group were provided information in the form of three short online tutorials. A follow-up survey shows that these women became more interested and aware of pension schemes and retirement options after completing the tutorials and were more likely to be better informed and keen to obtain further information. When looking at changes in behavior, we find tha t treated women who are closer to retirement are more likely to believe that they would make different work-life decisions if they received specific pension information in a timely fashion. They are also more likely to have a supplementary pension fund if they are concerned about their standard of living after retirement.
    Keywords: women, pension, savings, financial education
    JEL: H31 G51 J22
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Claudio Daminato (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Massimo Filippini (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich and Department of Economics, University of Lugano, Switzerland); Fabio Haufler (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of making personalized digital information available through a pension app on contributions to tax-favored retirement accounts. Using Swiss administrative pension fund data, we document limited take-up of fiscal incentives for retirement savings. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the pension app across occupational pension funds, we show that its availability increases individual tax-favored contributions. Men and higher-income earners are more likely to access the digital environment and respond to its introduction. These findings suggest that providing access to a pension app reduces information and transaction costs and facilitates the take-up of financial incentives for retirement saving.
    Keywords: Defined contribution plans, Fiscal incentives, Pension app, Savings
    JEL: D14 G51 H31 H55
    Date: 2020–11
  4. By: Bediova, Monika; Krejcova, Aneta; Cerny, Jiri; Klimczuk, Andrzej; Mikus, Juraj
    Abstract: Globally, the population is ageing, which has serious consequences for businesses. The prosperity of companies is crucially dependent on the ability to effectively manage their employees, including older workers. Best practice in age management is defined as those measures that combat age barriers and/or promote age diversity. These measures may entail specific initiatives aimed at particular dimensions of age management; they may also include more general employment or human resources policies that help to create an environment in which individual employees can achieve their potential without being disadvantaged by their age (Walker, 1999). Promoting early retirement is generally not encouraged. Companies now have to encourage longer working lives. Much needs to be done to ensure that work remains a positive experience for workers throughout their career trajectories, and it does not damage their health. It has been found by studies that health is significantly related to retirement timing (both planned and unplanned) (Goyer, 2013, Adams et al., 2014), influences work performance (Merrill et al., 2012; Ilmarinen, 2009), and health-related organisational policies can positively influence employee retention (Towers, 2005). The major contemporary challenges to health at work are those associated with the way work, and work organisations are designed and managed. This is especially true for older workers. A comprehensive and effective approach towards age management can be very beneficial for them. How should companies implement age management? Some possible ways are set out in this policy brief below, which focuses on best practices in age management regarding ergonomic aspects and health interventions for older workers at an organisational level. The intention is to discuss the current situation and to illustrate some organisational techniques in selected countries. This policy brief can serve as an inspiration for, among others, companies and policymakers. Recommendations for successful practice are included. In total, this policy brief covers 8 COST member countries (the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) to give a glimpse of the current situation of best practice in age management and show how companies in various states deal with ergonomic aspects, health interventions and the ageing of their labour force.
    Keywords: Age Management,Ergonomy,health interventions,older workers
    JEL: J14 O15
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Nishimura, Yukihiro; Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We consider a society where individuals differ according to their pro- ductivity and their risk of mortality and dependency. We show that ac- cording to the most reasonable estimates of correlations among these three characteristics, if one had to choose between a public pension system and a long-term care social insurance, the latter should be chosen by a utili- tarian social planner. With a Rawlsian planner, the balance between the two schemes does depend on the comparison between the ratio of the sur- vival probability to the dependence risk of the poor with its population average.
    Keywords: long term care, pension, mortality risk, optimal taxation, liquidity constraints
    JEL: H2 H5
    Date: 2020–10–06
  6. By: Leroux, Marie-Louise (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Pestieau, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper studies the design of the optimal linear taxation of bequests when individuals differ in wage as well as in their risks of both mortality and old-age dependance. We assume that the government cannot distinguish between bequests motives, that is whether bequests resulted from precautionary reasons or from pure joy of giving reasons. Instead, we assume that it only observes the timing of bequests, that is whether they are made early in life or late in life. We show that, if the government is utilitarian, whether the taxation of early bequests should be given priority over the taxation of late bequests depends on the magnitude of insurance and redistributive concerns. While the efficiency concern unambiguously recom- mends taxation of early bequests, redistributive concerns yield ambiguous results. This indeterminacy comes from the fact that, in case of late death, the government cannot ob- serve the health status of the deceased. Whether the taxation of early bequests should be given priority depends on the specific relationships between wages and both risks of early death and of old-age dependence, as well as on the concavity of the joy of giving utility function. If the government is Rawlsian, it is optimal to tax early bequests if the survival chances of the poorest agents are very low. If they survive, but their chances to remain autonomous are very low, it is then optimal to tax early bequests if the poorest agents con- tribute relatively less to the taxation of early bequests than to the taxation of late bequests or if the joy of giving utility is extremely concave.
    Keywords: Bequest taxation; Long term care; Utilitarianism; Rawlsian welfare criterion; Old-age dependency
    JEL: H21 H23 I14
    Date: 2020–10–01
  7. By: Gilles Pison; Sandrine Dauphin
    Abstract: Ce document présente une synthèse sur les perspectives démographiques en France d’ici 2050. La situation et les évolutions françaises sont replacées dans un cadre plus général au moyen de comparaisons internationales et européennes. Le document se compose de cinq parties abordant chacune un thème de la démographie. La première porte sur la croissance de la population mondiale, européenne et française. La deuxième traite des spécificités de la démographie française au sein de l’Union européenne. La troisième examine l’évolution des naissances et de la fécondité en France. La quatrième s’interroge sur les perspectives d’allongement de la vie et le vieillissement démographique. Enfin, la cinquième porte sur les migrations et étudie leur contribution à la population française hier, aujourd’hui et demain.
    Date: 2020
  8. By: OECD
    Abstract: This study examines reforms to civil service pension arrangements in a number of developing countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America. These arrangements are a significant component of public-sector remuneration in many developing countries and they can carry substantial risks, not only financial but also political and social. This study takes a long-term and systemic approach to civil service pensions, charting their evolution as part of a country’s social protection provision and with reference to public-sector remuneration as well as broader institutional developments. It demonstrates the short- and long-term costs of these arrangements against spending on other social protection interventions, notably poverty-targeted social assistance. Through a series of case studies, it examines the motivation behind countries’ decision to reform their civil service schemes, as well as the challenges they faced when undertaking these reforms and their overall impact. The study is intended to support countries planning to reform their civil service pension schemes by identifying key principles and specific policies they might consider in this process; it can also support governments not planning such reforms to better understand the financial dynamics of their civil service schemes.
    Keywords: Pensions, public sector, remuneration, social protection
    JEL: H53 H55 J32 J45
    Date: 2020–11–27
  9. By: Ochsen, Carsten
    Abstract: Since the early 1970s, it was argued that shifts from relatively smaller to larger youth cohorts in the labor force raise the unemploy- ment rate. In contrast, Shimer (2001) comes to a contrary conclusion using US state level data. I provide a theoretical framework for local labor markets that considers age cohort differences in labor market characteristics. Using a spatial panel data model and US county level data (2000-2014), the estimates provide strong evidence that aging of the working age population reduces overall unemployment by almost one percentage point. Long-run effects that consider local feedbacks are even larger.
    Keywords: Regional Unemployment,Spatial Interactions,Aging,Panel Data,Spatial Model
    JEL: J60 R12 J10 C23
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Amol; Monisankar Bishnu; Harsh Kumar; Tridip Ray
    Abstract: This paper exploits a well accepted inefficiency that arises out of Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions itself to phase it out in a Pareto way. The positive externality of having children in a PAYG pension system is carefully utilized to phase the pensions out. In a model with endogenous fertility the paper first confirms the sub-optimality of parent’s choices and recommends an intergenerationally balanced childcare subsidy to correct for the externalities in a PAYG system. However, if PAYG pension program needs to be dismantled for various reasons, it can be phased out from there infinite time and, more importantly, just by exploiting the above mentioned externalities keeping the Pareto conditions intact. This phase out plan under Pareto satisfies all the standard efficiency criteria suggested in the literature when fertility is endogenous.
    Keywords: Endogenous fertility, Fertility externality under PAYG pensions, Phase out of PAYG pensions, Pareto efficiency
    Date: 2020–11
  11. By: Guy Tchuente; Hector Galindo-Silva; Nibene Habib Some
    Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in-discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identifcation strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older. Americans' health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.
    Keywords: Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities, Identification, Regression Discontinuity Design, Affordable Care Act
    JEL: C13 I12 I13 I18
    Date: 2020–11
  12. By: Van Rens, Thijs (University of Warwick, CAGE and IZA); Oswald, Andrew J. (University of Warwick, CAGE and IZA)
    Abstract: Are general lockdowns an appropriate response to the threat of Covid-19? Recent cost-benefit studies do not favour the case for them. Instead, since the virus practises a form of age discrimination (approximately 90% of coronavirus deaths are older than 65), some analysts have suggested an alternative. It is that younger citizens -- the generation worst affected by lockdowns and the one that will predominantly pay the eventual tax bill for furlough -- should be allowed to return to work to sustain the economy. Lockdown advocates argue that this would be dangerous, because older people would get infected by young workers living in the same home. We explore that claim. We find that 96% of UK workers under age 40 do not live with anyone over 65. In fact, 92% of all UK workers live in a household without anyone over 65 years old – and that holds true for white and BAME workers. Releasing young workers would thus expose only a small fraction of older citizens to intra-household transmission, although we recognize that the absolute number of people infected might eventually become considerable, and some vulnerable citizens could potentially be at risk if they live in large households. In general this paper’s results illustrate the potential value of fine-tuning the lifting of restrictions. Our findings buttress the cost-benefit case for age-based policies.
    Keywords: coronavirus ; labor market ; recession ; COVID-19 JEL codes: I18
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Guohui Guan; Zongxia Liang; Fengyi Yuan
    Abstract: This paper studies the retirement decision, optimal investment and consumption strategies under habit persistence for an agent with the opportunity to design the retirement time. The optimization problem is formulated as an interconnected optimal stopping and stochastic control problem (Stopping-Control Problem) in a finite time horizon. The problem contains three state variables: wealth $x$, habit level $h$ and wage rate $w$. We aim to derive the retirement boundary of this "wealth-habit-wage" triplet $(x,h,w)$. The complicated dual relation is proposed and proved to convert the original problem to the dual one. We obtain the retirement boundary of the dual variables based on an obstacle-type free boundary problem. Using dual relation we find the retirement boundary of primal variables and feed-back forms of optimal strategies. We show that if the so-called "de facto wealth" exceeds a critical proportion of wage, it will be optimal for the agent to choose to retire immediately. In numerical applications, we show how "de facto wealth" determines the retirement decisions and optimal strategies. Moreover, we observe discontinuity at retirement boundary: investment proportion always jumps down upon retirement, while consumption may jump up or jump down, depending on the change of marginal utility. We also find that the agent with higher standard of life tends to work longer.
    Date: 2020–11
  14. By: E. V. Selezneva; O. V. Sinyavskaya; E.S. Gorvat
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance
    Date: 2020–07

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