|
on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Wolfgang Frimmel |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of raising the eligibility age of early retirement on the re-integration into the labor market of elderly unemployed workers. I exploit two Austrian pension reforms increasing the early retirement age step-wise for different quarter-of-birth cohorts. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data reveal a substantial gender di erence in how unemployed workers are a ected by the policy change. While unemployed women only benefit little with shorter unemployment duration, modest higher re-employment probability as well as labor income after unemployment, unemployed men benefit in several aspects: although unemployment duration remains una ected, re-employment chances, labor income and participation in active labor market policies significantly increase. Elderly unemployed workers closer to their early retirement age are systematically assigned to programs increasing their job application and job search skills, while workers more than five years away from their early retirement age are more likely to participate in programs increasing their skills. The gender di erence may be explained by the nature of the pension reforms. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that increasing the early retirement age is not only a feasible way to improve the financial sustainability of public pension systems but also improves the re-integration of elderly unemployed male workers. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, early retirement, active labor market policies, unemployment |
| JEL: | J14 J26 J68 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2020-24&r=all |
| By: | Elliott Ash; W. Bentley MacLeod |
| Abstract: | Anecdotal evidence often points to aging as a cause for reduced work performance. This paper provides empirical evidence on this issue in a context where performance is measurable and there is variation in mandatory retirement policies: U.S. state supreme courts. We find that introducing mandatory retirement reduces the average age of working judges and improves court performance, as measured by output (number of published opinions) and legal impact (number of forward citations to those opinions). Consistent with aging effects as a contributing factor, we find that older judges do about the same amount of work as younger judges, but that work is lower-quality as measured by citations. However, the effect of mandatory retirement on performance is much larger than what would be expected from the change in the age distribution, suggesting that the presence of older judges reduces the performance of younger judges. |
| JEL: | D02 J26 J41 J44 K0 K4 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28025&r=all |
| By: | Tabassum, Tanjila; Ulm, Eric R. |
| Abstract: | Many financially insolvent private pension funds have put Defined Benefit (DB) plans under a microscope over the last few decades. Despite government imposed rules to ensure minimum required funding, sponsors might choose to underfund the plans for short term benefits. This paper investigates the influences— plan and firm specific characteristics, and enforcement of full funding limits— on sponsor contributions (1991-2016) to DB pension plans in the US private sector. We apply Heckman model to the voluntary contributions to eliminate sample selection bias resulting from decisions to contribute only the legally required minimum. Allowing tax deductible contributions up to a full funding limitation has a positive marginal effect on voluntary contributions. Sponsors are less likely to contribute when the S&P stock return increases, but more likely when the 10-year treasury rate does. A lower pension plan funding ratio than required increases the likelihood of contribution. |
| Keywords: | Defined Benefit, Voluntary Contribution, Full Funding Limitation, Marginal Effects, Heckman Test, |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:9372&r=all |
| By: | Baber, Ryan (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise); Taufer, Edward (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | The following paper is an analysis of Chile’s pension reform from 1980 to today, in 2019. The paper analyzes the structure, implementation, and transition process of the reform, while also highlighting strengths and identifying weaknesses that can be improved upon. This information can be used to assist Chile in its current pension reform, as well as be used as a potential model for future countries looking to overhaul their pension system. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0146&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Gannon (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Gilles Le Garrec (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Gautier Lenfant; Vincent Touze (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | L'adoption d'un système universel de retraite par points modifie le lien entre les revenus du travail et la pension de retraite. Dans cet article, nous proposons de mesurer l'impact possible d'un tel changement dans différents contextes de trajectoire salariale. Nous identifions sept cas-types suffisamment stylisés pour caractériser les principales propriétés du système actuel pour des salariés du secteur privé ayant eu des carrières complètes sous le plafond de sécurité sociale. Pour aborder la transition, nous étudions deux méthodes de valorisation des droits acquis dans l'ancien système. La première est la conversion immédiate des droits en points. La seconde consiste à faire cohabiter les règles de calcul (imbrication) et à attribuer une pension acquise avant réforme au prorata de la durée de cotisation dans l'ancien système. Nous identifions un scénario central de générosité constante à long terme pour une carrière donnée. Nous montrons qu'un impact différencié (et donc une redistribution) s'observe, indépendamment du niveau de revenu, au profit de la carrière peu dynamique et au détriment de la carrière plus dynamique. Pour des carrières comportant de mauvaises années cotisées, des baisses sensibles sont à craindre. Toutefois, pour les carrières avec de faibles salaires, une hausse de la pension minimum est en mesure de limiter l'impact de ces baisses voire au contraire conduire à une pension effectivement perçue plus élevée. La méthode de valorisation des droits acquis n'est pas neutre. La conversion est plutôt avantageuse pour des carrières peu dynamiques tandis que l'imbrication des règles est plus généreuse pour les carrières les plus dynamiques. |
| Keywords: | Pension reform; Income distribution; Welfare program |
| JEL: | H55 D31 I38 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7abc1ul1fc9j29enqm2mtvin0s&r=all |
| By: | Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Thomas Horvath; Marian Fink; Gemma Abio; Guadalupe Souto Nieves; Concepció Patxot (University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics. For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain. |
| Keywords: | Microsimulation, Education, Demographic Change, National Transfer Accounts |
| Date: | 2020–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:618&r=all |
| By: | Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Carl Mason; Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Generational overlap affects the care time demands on parents and grandparents worldwide. Here, we present the first global estimates of the experience of simultaneously having frail older parents and young children (“sandwichness”) or young grandchildren (“grandsandwichness”) for the 1970-2040 cohorts using demographic methods and microsimulations. We find that sandwichness is more prevalent in the Global South – e.g. people born in 1970 in Sub-Saharan Africa are twice as likely to be sandwiched as Europeans – but is expected to decline globally by one-third between 1970 and 2040. The Global North might have reached a peak in the simultaneous care time demands from multiple generations but the duration of the grandsandwich state will increase by up to one year in Africa and Asia. This increasing generational overlap implies more care time demands over the entire adult life course but also opens up the opportunity for the full potential of grandparenthood to materialize. |
| Keywords: | World, demographic ageing, dependency, developing countries, generations, microsimulation |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-037&r=all |
| By: | Burkhard Heer; Stefan Rohrbacher |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of endogenous longevity on optimal tax progressivity and inequality in an overlapping generations model with skill heterogeneity. Higher tax progressivity decreases both the longevity gap and net income inequality, but at the expense of lower average lifetime and lower aggregate labor supply and income. We find that the welfare-maximizing income tax is less progressive than in the case of exogenous longevity and that the present US income tax should redistribute less. Our result is robust to the empirically observed range of labor supply elasticity and the assumptions of both missing annuity markets and tax deductibility of private health expenditures. |
| Keywords: | health and inequality, demography, second-best, optimal taxation, personal income distribution, overlapping generations |
| JEL: | I14 J10 H21 H51 D31 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8691&r=all |
| By: | Christopher J. Cronin; William N. Evans |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic in the US has been particularly devastating for nursing home residents. A key question is how have some nursing homes been able to effectively protect their residents, while others have not? Using data on the universe of US nursing homes, we examine whether establishment quality is predictive of COVID-19 mortality. Higher-quality nursing homes, as measured by inspection ratings, have substantially lower COVID-19 mortality. Quality does not predict the ability to prevent any COVID-19 resident or staff cases, but higher-quality establishments prevent the spread of resident infections conditional on having one. Preventing COVID-19 cases and deaths may come at some cost, as high-quality homes have substantially higher non-COVID deaths, a result consistent with high excess non-COVID mortality among the elderly since March. The positive correlation between establishment quality and non-COVID mortality is driven entirely by nursing homes located in counties with below-median COVID-19 case rates. As a result, high-quality homes in these counties have significantly more total deaths than their low-quality counterparts. The concentration of excess death in low-risk areas suggests that future suffering could be avoided with more nuanced guidelines, such as those recently suggested by CMS that outline a role for in-person visits in lower-risk areas. |
| JEL: | I1 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28012&r=all |
| By: | Noelle Denny-Brown; Denise Stone; Burke Hays; Dayna Gallagher |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic is imposing unprecedented demands on health care facilities and on nursing homes. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, nursing homes, workforce challenges, long-term care |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:b06e9d0da5254d51bbb74bfee6482748&r=all |