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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Ander Iraizoz (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using the fact that the Spanish self-employed voluntarily choose their contributions to Social Security, I study the effect of financial incentives on public pension savings for self-employed workers in Spain. For this, I implement a difference-in-differences approach exploiting the change in public pension saving incentives induced by the 1997 pension reform. I find that the Spanish self-employed significantly respond to the financial incentives for public pension savings. However, the estimated response could be considered modest relative to the magnitude of the return to contributions provided by pension formulas in Spain. I provide evidence suggesting that the lack of salience of the return to contributions could be one of the main drivers of such a modest response, highlighting the importance of information and salience on the responsiveness of self-employed workers to saving incentives. |
| Keywords: | Public Pension,Self-Employed,Social Security,Retirement Savings |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02948136&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Frimmel; Martin Halla; Jörg Paetzold; Julia Schmieder |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of parental health on adult children’s labor market outcomes. We focus on health shocks which increase care dependency abruptly. Our estimation strategy exploits the variation in the timing of shocks across treated families. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data show a significant negative impact on labor market activities of children. This effect is more pronounced for daughters and for children who live close to their parents. Further analyses suggest informal caregiving as the most likely mechanism. The effect is muted after a liberalization of the formal care market, which sharply increased the supply of foreign care workers. |
| Keywords: | Informal care, formal care, aging, health, labor supply, labor migration |
| JEL: | J14 J22 I11 I18 R23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1902&r=all |
| By: | Johannes Schünemann (University of Fribourg, Department of Economics); Holger Strulik (University of Goettingen, Department of Economics); Timo Trimborn (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | We integrate anticipatory utility and endogenous beliefs about future negative health shocks into a life-cycle model of physiological aging. Individuals care about their future utility derived from their health status and form endogenous beliefs about the probability of a negative health shock. We calibrate the model with data from gerontology and use the model to predict medical testing decisions of individuals. We find that anticipation in combination with endogenous beliefs provides a quantitatively strong motive to avoid medical testing for Huntington's disease which explains the low testing rates found empirically. We also study the case of breast and ovarian cancer and provide an explanation for why testing rates depend on the individual's income when treatment is available. |
| Keywords: | Health, Anticipation, Longevity, Health behavior, Beliefs, Information avoidance |
| JEL: | D11 D91 I12 J17 |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2020-14&r=all |
| By: | Werding, Martin; Läpple, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Die demographische Alterung tritt in Deutschland derzeit in akute Phase ein, die insbesondere in den gesetzlichen Sozialversicherungen zu finanziellen Anspannungen führt und mittelbar auch Risiken für die Entwicklung des Bundeshaushalts erzeugt. Dies wird im vorliegenden Bericht mit Hilfe von Langfrist-Simulationen für Ausgaben und Einnahmen der Renten-, Kranken-, Pflege- und Arbeitslosenversicherung, einschließlich der Effekte für die jeweils geleisteten Zuschüsse aus dem Bundeshaushalt, genauer untersucht. Einbezogen werden auch Ausgaben für die soziale Sicherung Beamter. Neben einem Basisszenario und einigen Alternativvarianten werden auch erste, vorläufige Abschätzungen der Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie und ihrer Bekämpfung auf die in der Studie untersuchten Entwicklungen erstellt. Zentrale Ergebnisse der Simulationen sind Szenarien zur Entwicklung des gesamtstaatlichen Haushalts bis 2060 und Kennziffern für dessen langfristige Tragfähigkeit. Die wichtigsten Schlussfolgerungen aus den Berechnungen lauten: I. Der absehbare Druck auf die Finanzen der Sozialversicherungen und den gesamtstaatlichen Haushalt nimmt in den nächsten zwanzig Jahren schnell und deutlich zu und geht in der Folgezeit nicht wieder zurück. II. Diese ungünstigen Perspektiven ändern sich auch bei realistisch erscheinenden Variationen der zugrundeliegenden Annahmen nur wenig. III. Die Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie und der dadurch ausgelösten Wirtschaftskrise könnten die langfristige finanzielle Entwicklung der Sozialversicherungen aus heutiger Sicht weitgehend unbeeinflusst lassen. IV. Trotzdem erhöht sich durch die finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen zur Krisenbekämpfung der Konsolidierungsbedarf, den die demographische Alterung für den gesamtstaatlichen Haushalt insgesamt erzeugt. |
| Keywords: | demographische Alterung,öffentliche Finanzen,Alterssicherung,Gesundheit,Pflege,Arbeitslosigkeit,Tragfähigkeit,Konsolidierung,Demographic Ageing,Public Finances,Old-age Provision,Health Care,Long-term Care,Unemployment,Sustainability,Budget Consolidation |
| JEL: | E27 H50 H60 J11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fifore:29&r=all |
| By: | Jonathan Sicsic (LIRAES - EA 4470 - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé - UP - Université de Paris); Bastian Ravesteijn (Erasmus School of Economics - Erasmus University Rotterdam); Thomas Rapp (LIRAES - EA 4470 - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé - UP - Université de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Physical frailty and sarcopenia (PF&S) has received growing attention in empirical models of health care use. However, few articles focused on objective measures of PF&S to assess the extent of care consumption among the frail population at risk of dependency. Using baseline data from the SPRINTT study, a sample of 1518 elderly people aged 70+ recruited in eleven European countries, we analyse the association between various PF&S measures and health care / long term care (LTC) use. Multiple health care and LTC outcomes are modelled using linear probability models adjusted for a range of individual characteristics and country fixed effects. We find that PF&S is associated with a significant increase in emergency admissions and hospitalizations, especially among low-income elders. All PF&S measures are significantly associated with increased use of formal and informal LTC. There is a moderating effect of income on LTC use: poor frail elders are more likely to use any of the formal LTC services than rich frail elders. Our results are robust to various statistical specifications. They suggest that the inclusion of PF&S in the eligibility criteria of public LTC allowances could contribute to decrease the economic gradient in care use among the elderly community-dwelling European population. |
| Keywords: | Frailty,Sarcopenia,Long-term care,Health care use,SPRINTT trial |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02949571&r=all |
| By: | Andersen, Torben M.; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Liu, Qing |
| Abstract: | In the real world, public pay-as-you-go pension (PAYG) schemes are popular and co-exist with private, retirement-saving schemes. This is true even in dynamically efficient economies where such pensions offer a lower return. The classic Aaron- Samuelson result argues that, in theory, this is impossible. Later work has shown that it may be possible if agents, left on their own, undersave due to myopia or time-inconsistency. In that case, if the government is paternalistic, a welfare rationale for PAYG pensions arises but only if voluntary retirement saving is fully crowded out because of a binding borrowing constraint. This paper generalizes the Aaron- Samuelson discussion to the reference-dependent utility setup of KË oszegi and Rabin (2009) where undersaving happens naturally. No borrowing constraint is imposed. In this case, it is possible to offer a non-paternalistic, welfare rationale for return dominated, PAYG pensions to coexist with private retirement saving. |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202004170700001102&r=all |
| By: | Reid, Kate (University of Glasgow); lido, catherine; Ross, Hannah; Carruthers, Michelle; Cairns, Laura; Huie, Krisi |
| Abstract: | In Scotland, and United Kingdom, there are stark inequalities in the experience of older age, particularly for those with limited social contact, poorer health, located in deprived neighbourhoods (Centre for Ageing Better 2015). This mixed-methodology research, reports survey findings with n=169 community dwelling older adults in Scotland (average age 79.5), supported with qualitative interviews to evidence the underexplored connection between food insecurity and physiological risk indicators of undernutrition (malnutrition), with psychosocial indicators of healthy ageing. Findings are grounded in collaboration with a third sector social enterprise – Food Train, who provide food shopping and volunteer meal making for those aged 65+. Findings revealed correlations between food insecurity and early indicators of malnutrition risk with poorer wellbeing, and social connectedness. Supported food access mitigates the negative cycle of food insecurity on mental health, via empowerment (locus of control) over one’s life. Qualitative findings suggest that risks of food insecurity may not be financial (food poverty), or attributable to health realities associated with ageing. Rather, psychosocial health and wellbeing diverge as older adults attempt to draw upon available resources, reflective of their own social capital. Mitigators of malnutrition risk includes empowerment through social care located in the third sector, as well as social aspects of food access e.g. social eating, warranting future investigation. These findings are considered post Covid-19, with key policy implications. |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6fwm8&r=all |
| By: | Kashnitsky, Ilya (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute) |
| Abstract: | This thesis explores the role of demographic change in the evolution of inequalities in population age structures across regions of Europe. It strives to increase our understanding of the demographic processes that shape regional population age structures, and how these processes are interrelated with regional economic development. The analysis is focused on changing relative differences over time, i.e. convergence or divergence. The focus on convergence or divergence in population age structures is a relevant subject interesting not just to the demographers, who are anyways obsessed with population dynamics. The study period, which spans from the beginning of 2003 to end of 2012, happens to be uniquely interesting because it includes major shifts both in economies and population age structures. First, in 2004 happened the biggest enlargement of European Union that largely affected economic prospects of the newly admitted countries of Central and Eastern Europe and radically reshaped the intra-European migration landscape. Second, Europe was heavily and unevenly stricken by the economic crisis of 2008-2009, which affected all domains of people's lives including behaviours directly related to demographic events. Finally, the second part of the study period was marked with the accelerated graying of relatively large baby-boom generation cohorts that started to leave the working age in 2010s changing the population age compositions faster than ever before. |
| Date: | 2020–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6m4kg&r=all |
| By: | , Stone Center (The Graduate Center/CUNY); Bartels, Charlotte; Neumann, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Redistribution across individuals in a one-year-period framework is an empirically intensely studied question. However, a substantial share of annual redistribution might turn out to serve individual insurance in a longer perspective, reducing the level of actual redistribution across individuals. This paper investigates to what extent long-run redistribution diverges from annual redistribution in welfare states of different types. Exploiting panel data from the Cross-National Equivalent File (CNEF) for Australia, Germany, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we find that welfare states like Germany that are assumed to engage in a high level of redistribution actually achieve relatively less redistribution between individuals in the long run than the United Kingdom or the United States. Regression results show that a higher share of elderly in a country is associated with more annual redistribution, but with less long-run redistribution between individuals. The results suggest that, in welfare states with aging populations, we might expect growing annual redistribution that, to a substantial extent, is in fact income smoothing for the elderly. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper Series) |
| Date: | 2020–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:867s2&r=all |
| By: | Federico Barbiellini (Bank of Italy); Matteo Gomellini (Bank of Italy); Lorenzon Incoronato (University College London (UCL) and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM)); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages spatial and time-series variation in the population age structure of Italian regions to uncover the causal effect of demographic shifts on labour productivity. Such effect is analysed along a ‘first-order’ channel stemming from the direct relation between an individual’s age and productivity, and a ‘second-order’ channel that captures the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates labour productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and employs instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates return a hump-shaped age-productivity profile, with a peak between 35 and 40 years, as well as a positive productivity effect associated with a more dispersed age distribution. |
| Keywords: | productivity, demography, age distribution, working-age population, long-run |
| JEL: | J11 J21 N30 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2019&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Aubry |
| Abstract: | State and local pension funding is the product of two key factors: required contributions and investment returns. Achieving the actuarially assumed return is critical to limit increases in contributions (for plan sponsors, participants and, ultimately, taxpayers). Even though financial markets have recovered from the crash sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, most public pension plans will close fiscal year (FY) 2020 – which generally ends in June – with an annual return that falls short of actuarial expectations. This brief investigates public pension investments and the implications of the market downturn. The first section documents the investment performance of public pension plans as of June 2020, a date that includes the crash in March and subsequent rebound. The second and third sections assess the concerns raised during the crash regarding public plan liquidity and vulnerability to sharp downturns. The final section concludes that even though public pension investment returns have fallen short of actuarial expectations in FY 2020, plans maintain a consistent cache of U.S. Treasuries that could be easily liquidated to pay benefits during severe market downturns. |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:slpbrf:slp73&r=all |
| By: | Tim Bulman |
| Abstract: | Greece’s labour market entered the COVID-19 shock following several years of sustained employment growth and with wages picking up. Unemployment remained high and employment rates were low, especially among women, the young and older workers. The shock led to a sharp fall in labour force activity and has stalled new hiring. The improved social protection and temporary support measures have helped to support households’ incomes and protect jobs during the COVID-19 crisis. However, high tax and social security contribution rates, together with little in-work support for the low-paid, continue abetting high structural informality. This heightens insecurity – by excluding many workers from activation policies or social and employment protection – and weakens productivity. Boosting the capacity of employment services and activation policies would support the recovery from the COVID-19 shock, in addition to durably improving employment prospects especially of long-term unemployed. Giving workplaces further flexibility to adapt collective agreements to specific circumstances would help align wage growth with productivity developments and help businesses to weather the COVID-19 shock. Building on the population’s solid education levels by equipping workers with the skills needed by the labour market can support employment and incomes. This will require a substantial boost to professional education and training at all levels and ages. This chapter applies the 2018 OECD Jobs Strategy to Greece to identify reforms that can help to overcome the COVID-19 crisis and create a virtuous cycle between productivity, job creation, and well-being. |
| JEL: | E24 H24 H26 A I38 J24 J31 J6 |
| Date: | 2020–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1622-en&r=all |
| By: | Schulz, Lee |
| Abstract: | Aging beef producers have opportunities to help younger producers get started. |
| Date: | 2019–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:201906180700001724&r=all |