nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒07‒13
eleven papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Building Better Retirement Systems in the Wake of the Global Pandemic By Olivia S. Mitchell
  2. Exploring options for a universal old age pension in Tanzania Mainland By Twahir Khalfan; Elineema Kisanga; Vincent Leyaro; Faith Masekesa; Michael Noble; Gemma Wright
  3. Wealth Distribution and Retirement Preparation among Early Savers By Alice Henriques Volz; Lindsay Jacobs; Elizabeth Llanes; Kevin B. Moore; Jeffrey P. Thompson
  4. 'More than One Red Herring'? Heterogeneous Effects of Ageing on Healthcare Utilisation By Joan Costa-i-Font; Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto
  5. Taxes and the Revaluation of Household Wealth By Edward N. Wolff
  6. Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France By Bertoli, Simone; Guichard, Lucas; Marchetta, Francesca
  7. The impact of aging and automation on the macroeconomy and inequality By Stähler, Nikolai
  8. Time devoted by the elderly to the Internet: Influence of personal and family variables in Mexico and Chile By Campaña, Juan Carlos; Ortega, Raquel
  9. Nexus of Demographic Change, Structural Transformation and Economic Growth in South Asia By Jayasooriya, Sujith
  10. Need, unmet need, and shortage in the long-term care market By Paula Cristina Albuquerque
  11. Ageing-Driven Migration and Redistribution: Comparing Policy Regimes By Razin, Assaf; Schwemmer, Alexander

  1. By: Olivia S. Mitchell
    Abstract: In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been shocked into a new awareness of the need for better risk management tools to handle longevity and aging. This paper offers an assessment of the status quo prior to the spread of the coronavirus, evaluates how retirement systems are faring in the wake of the shock. Next we examine insurance and financial market products that may render retirement systems more resilient for the world’s aging population. Finally, potential roles for policymakers are evaluated.
    JEL: G23 H55 J26 J32
    Date: 2020–05
  2. By: Twahir Khalfan; Elineema Kisanga; Vincent Leyaro; Faith Masekesa; Michael Noble; Gemma Wright
    Abstract: The provision of a universal old age pension is increasingly recognized as an important instrument for strengthening and extending social protection. A growing number of emerging economies, including East African countries, are introducing universal old age pensions to guarantee at least a basic level of social security. However, such a benefit has not been established in Tanzania Mainland, and a lack of adequate financing is viewed as one of the main constraints.
    Keywords: microsimulation, Old age, public pensions, Pensions, Social security, Tanzania
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Alice Henriques Volz; Lindsay Jacobs; Elizabeth Llanes; Kevin B. Moore; Jeffrey P. Thompson
    Abstract: This paper develops a new combined-wealth measure by augmenting data on net worth from the Survey of Consumer Finances with estimates of defined benefit (DB) pension and expected Social Security wealth. We use this concept to explore retirement preparation among two groups of households in pre-retirement years (aged 40 through 49 and 50 through 59), and to explore the concentration of wealth. We find evidence of moderate, but rising, shortfalls in retirement preparation. We also show that including DB pension and Social Security wealth results in markedly lower measures of wealth concentration, and it slightly moderates trends toward a higher concentration over time.
    Keywords: retirement adequacy; wealth inequality; Social Security
    JEL: D31 D63 H55 I32
    Date: 2020–02–01
  4. By: Joan Costa-i-Font; Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto
    Abstract: We study the effect of ageing, defined an extra year of life, on health care utilisation. We disentangle the direct effect of ageing, from other alternative explanations such as the presence of comorbidities and endogenous time to death (TTD) that are argued to absorb the effect of ageing (so-called ‘red herring’ hypothesis). We exploit individual level end of life data from several European countries that record the use of medicine, outpatient and inpatient care as well as long-term care. Consistently with a ‘red herring hypothesis’, we find that corrected TTD estimates are significantly different from uncorrected ones, and its effect size exceeds that of an extra year of life, which in turn is moderated by individual comorbidities. Corrected estimates suggest an overall attenuated effect of ageing, which does not influence outpatient care utilisation. These results suggest the presence of ‘more than one red herring’ depending on the type of health care examined.
    Keywords: time to death, ageing, health care utilization, hospital care, medicines use, home help use and comorbidity, endogeneous time to death (TTD), comorbidities
    JEL: I18
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Edward N. Wolff
    Abstract: Tax deferred assets (TDAs) such as 401(k)s cannot be directly valued with other assets such as homes and stocks because TDAs carry a substantial deferred tax liability on withdrawal. I also net out implicit taxes on accrued capital gains and compare pre-tax and post-tax wealth. The empirical analysis covers 1983-2016 based on the Survey of Consumer Finances for conventional net worth, NW, and augmented wealth, AW, the sum of NW, pension wealth PW, and Social Security wealth SSW. Like TDAs, defined benefit pension and Social Security benefits are taxed on receipt. Netting out implicit taxes lowered PW by 24% in 2016. It also devalued SSW by 14%, NW by 5%, and AW by 8% but the reduction was lower in the 1980s. Subtracting implicit taxes lowered PW and SSW inequality but had no appreciable impact on NW or AW inequality. I also consider the bequest value BV of wealth, including death benefits. While TDAs are still subject to income tax at withdrawal, other assets are valued on a step-up in basis. BV was considerably greater than NW but BV inequality notably lower. When estimated estate taxes due on death are subtracted, BV was substantially lowered and its inequality sharply reduced.
    JEL: D31 H31 J1
    Date: 2020–06
  6. By: Bertoli, Simone (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Guichard, Lucas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Marchetta, Francesca (CERDI, University of Auvergne)
    Abstract: We analyze the consequences of the decision of French government to maintain the first round of the municipal elections on March 15, 2020 on local excess mortality in the following weeks. We exploit heterogeneity across municipalities in voter turnout, which we instrument using a measure of the intensity of local competition. The results reveal that a higher turnout was associated with a significantly higher death counts for the elderly population in the five weeks after the elections. If the historically low turnout in 2020 had been at its 2014 level, the number of deaths would have been 21.8 percent higher than the one that was recorded. More than three quarters of these additional deaths would have occurred among the individuals aged 80 and above.
    Keywords: COVID-19, excess mortality, voter turnout, intensity of electoral competition, municipal-level data
    JEL: J11 D72
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Stähler, Nikolai
    Abstract: We build a life-cycle model in which a representative firm produces a final good using routine and non-routine labor as well as traditional and automation capital (e.g. robots). Robots can substitute for routine labor. We show that both, population aging and higher robot productivity, foster the increased use of robotics. Population aging decreases and progress in robot technology increases long-run output per capita. In both cases, inequalities in labor income, wealth and consumption rise. Although expected advances in automation technologies are able to mitigate or even circumvent output losses in the aggregate and improve consumption possibilities for everyone, this comes at the cost of increased inequality because non-routine workers benefit disproportionately.
    Keywords: Life-Cycle model,Automation,Robots,Inequality
    JEL: J11 J23 J24 O33 O49
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Campaña, Juan Carlos; Ortega, Raquel
    Abstract: In the context of a growing interest by older individuals in Internet activities, we provide evidence from two OECD countries in Latin America, Mexico and Chile. Using Time Use Surveys, we find, in both countries, that men and women with a university education devote more time to internet activities than those with only a primary education. Furthermore, in Mexico, we observe that women with university education devote less time per week to internet activities than do men with the same level of education. Regarding the presence of children in the household, we observe that, women in Chile devote more time per week to Internet activities than do men, in households with children. Considering that Internet use reduces the isolation or exclusion of individuals in specific socio-economic groups, and, consequently increases the quality of life, the results shown in this paper can be useful in terms of public policy.
    Keywords: Elderly, Internet, Time use, Latin America countries, OECD countries
    JEL: D1 D12
    Date: 2020–06–08
  9. By: Jayasooriya, Sujith
    Abstract: The economic growth depends on changes in the demographic profile of a country. However, the demographic change over economic growth has positive and negative relationships in the literature. Further, testing a Kuznets model of economic growth is not adequately estimated in the field of demographic and structural transformation in South Asia. The study uses panel data model for understanding the structural change over the demographic changes of the South Asian economies. A panel unit root test and GMM dynamic panel data model will be evaluated with the use of Kuznets curve approach. The results of GMM dynamic panel data estimation show a strong relationship among CO2 emission, demographic profile and economic growth. It revealed that 1% increase in GDP increases 3.033% of the CO2 emission. However, increase of 1% demographic profile of the South Asia decreases CO2 emission by 0.058%. Thereby, the changes of demographic profile with respect to the changes of economic growth can reduce the environmental degradation and promote sustainability in development policies.
    Keywords: Panel Data, GMM, Kuznets Curve, Demographic Profile, Economic Growth
    JEL: C5 C51 E6 J1 O4 O44
    Date: 2020–06–02
  10. By: Paula Cristina Albuquerque
    Date: 2020–01
  11. By: Razin, Assaf; Schwemmer, Alexander
    Abstract: Life cycle and insurance-type considerations dominate redistribution policy. Wage and fiscal burden implication dominate migration policy Ageing drive both migration and redistribution trends Fiscal prospects of ageing depend on two factors, in order to mitigate adverse macroeconomic impact of ageing. The first is the tendency towards for capital deepening; the second increased migration flows. In a macroeconomic framework the paper compares different policy regimes, directed at migration and redistribution issues: migration quotas, provision of social benefits, labor income and capital income taxation, - are all endogenously determined in a policy-optimizing framework. The analysis makes a three-way comparison: free-migration regime differentiated from restricted-migration regime, welfare-state regime distinguished from free-market regime, and low-income-majority regime assessed against high-income-majority regime.
    Date: 2020–04

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