nep-age New Economics Papers
on Economics of Ageing
Issue of 2020‒05‒11
sixteen papers chosen by
Claudia Villosio
LABORatorio R. Revelli

  1. Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system By Schön, Matthias
  2. Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK By Giesecke, Matthias; Jäger, Philipp
  3. : Does retirement affect secondary preventive care use? Evidence from breast cancer screening By Peter Eibich; Léontine Goldzahl
  4. Who Has Benefited from Nursing Home Expansion in Japan?: The Effects of Government Supply-Side Intervention in the Elderly Care Market By Nishimura, Y.;; Oikawa, M.;
  5. Развитие государственно-частного страхования дорогостоящего ухода и лечения пожилых граждан с учетом поведенческих эффектов и количественной оценки рисков By (Дмитриев, Михаил); (Калмыков, Николай); (Ларина, Светлана); (Крапиль, Валерий)
  6. Indicators of the level of pension provision in the system of compulsory pension insurance: methodology and comparison of Russia with other countries By Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий); Lyashok, Viktor (Ляшок, Виктор); Salmina, Alla (Салмина, Алла); Fedorov, Vitaly (Федоров, Виталий)
  7. Population forecasting and analysis of demographic heterogeneity of Russia By Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей); Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей)
  8. The development of the market of social services for the elderly with increasing life expectancy By Grishina, Elena (Гришина, Елена); Tsatsura, Elena (Цацура, Елена)
  9. Automation and Demographic Change By Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus
  10. Closed-form Solutions for an Explicit Modern Ideal Tontine with Bequest Motive By John Dagpunar
  11. Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics By Joshua R. Goldstein; Ronald D. Lee
  12. Regional features of the influence of value orientations and the level of education on demographic behavior By Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей); Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей); Medvedev, Ilya (Медведев, Илья); Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия)
  13. Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity By Adriano A. Rampini
  14. On track for retirement? By Matthew Olckers
  15. The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on Intensive Care Occupancy: Evidence on COVID-19 in Scandinavia By Juranek, Steffen; Zoutman, Floris T.
  16. Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic By Andrew Glover; Jonathan Heathcote; Dirk Krueger; José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

  1. By: Schön, Matthias
    Abstract: This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example, react to changes in the statutory pension system, such as the retirement age or the replacement rate. Changes in households' behaviour, in turn, impact on macroeconomic developments and public finances. One approach to parametrically reform the pension system would be linking (indexing) the retirement age systematically to increasing life expectancy. The model shows that the resulting increase in employment would also bolster social security contributions and taxes. Moreover, with a rising retirement age and the associated longer periods of work, pension entitlements would increase.
    Keywords: Demographic Change,Pension System,OLG Models
    JEL: E27 E62 H55 J11 J26
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Giesecke, Matthias; Jäger, Philipp
    Abstract: We study the labor supply effects and welfare implications of introducing a universal means-tested old-age assistance program in times of very limited social protection. We take advantage of a unique historical reform: The Old-Age Pension Act (OPA) of 1908, which, for the first time, provided pensions to older people in the UK. Using recently released full-count census data covering the entire population, we exploit variation at the newly created age-based eligibility threshold. Our results show a considerable and abrupt decline in labor force participation of 6.0 percentage points (13%) when older workers reach the eligibility age of 70. This sudden drop only occurs at the age cutoff and only after the OPA was implemented. Despite the considerable labor supply decline, the overall efficiency loss from the OPA was limited and most likely outweighed by equity gains.
    Keywords: Old-age assistance,labor supply,retirement,regression discontinuity design,equity-efficiency trade-off
    JEL: D61 H21 H55 J14 J22 J26
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Peter Eibich; Léontine Goldzahl
    Abstract: Population ageing is expected to increase the burden of non-communicable diseases, e.g., cardiovascular diseases and cancer. These diseases are amenable to prevention, such as lifestyle changes (primary prevention) and early detection (secondary prevention), and thus prevention is considered to be one of the keys to maintaining the health of an ageing population. This paper examines the causal impact of retirement on secondary preventive care use. While we focus on breast cancer screening, we also provide evidence for other types of screening such as cervical cancer screening. We use five waves of data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted between 1996 and 2006, covering 25 different European countries. We address the endogeneity of retirement by using age thresholds for pension eligibility as instrumental variables. We find that retirement reduces secondary preventive care use. This effect is not driven by changes in health or income. Instead, our evidence suggests that generosity of the social health insurance system and women’s beliefs concerning cancer prevention and treatment are important mechanisms.
    Keywords: Europe; retirement; health behavior; instrumental variables; preventive care; breast cancer
    JEL: I12 I18 J26 C26
    Date: 2020–04
  4. By: Nishimura, Y.;; Oikawa, M.;
    Abstract: This study analyzes the relation between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home elderly care. In Japan, the national government both regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers and intervenes in the supply side of the eldercare market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market while simultaneously reducing their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, one may reasonably conclude that the capacity of public nursing homes in Japan has expanded excessively, putting unnecessary pressure both on the Japanese budget and the personal provision of eldercare services.
    Keywords: long-term care insurance system; labor supply; medical expenditure; regulation;
    JEL: H51 I18 J14 J18 J22
    Date: 2020–02
  5. By: (Дмитриев, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); (Калмыков, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); (Ларина, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); (Крапиль, Валерий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Health insurance, retirement insurance, long-term life insurance, social services, aging population. The work is devoted to the problems of developing social insurance taking into account long-term demographic and technological challenges. The aim of the study presented in the work is to develop new financial and economic mechanisms to increase the financial sustainability of the social insurance system and to increase the availability of advanced healthcare and social care technologies.
    Date: 2020–03
  6. By: Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lyashok, Viktor (Ляшок, Виктор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Salmina, Alla (Салмина, Алла) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Fedorov, Vitaly (Федоров, Виталий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper sets out the main provisions of the developed by the authors of the system of indicators of the level of pension provision in relation to the conditions of the Russian system of pension insurance. The proposed indicators evaluate the fulfillment of the following three functions of insurance pensions: smoothing out changes in income during and after retirement, protecting pensioners from poverty, and ensuring a balance between the level of pensions and wages. To evaluate these functions of insurance pensions, two types of indicators have been developed that differ in methodology and informational basis for calculation: empirical and theoretical.
    Date: 2020–03
  7. By: Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.
    Keywords: demography, probabilistic demographic forecast, multi-regional demographic forecast, life expectancy, old age threshold, age and sex structure of the population, regional differentiation
    Date: 2020–03
  8. By: Grishina, Elena (Гришина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tsatsura, Elena (Цацура, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the current situation in the field of social services for senior citizens, including both the work of the state system of social services and non-governmental organizations of social services for the elderly.
    Date: 2020–03
  9. By: Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots.
    Keywords: Automation,Industrial Robots,Demographic Change,Declining Fertility
    JEL: J11 O33 O40
    Date: 2020
  10. By: John Dagpunar
    Abstract: In this paper I extend the work of Bernhardt and Donnelly (2019) dealing with modern explicit tontines, as a way of providing income under a specified bequest motive, from a defined contribution pension pot. A key feature of the present paper is that it relaxes the assumption of fixed proportions invested in tontine and bequest accounts. In making the bequest proportion an additional control function I obtain, hitherto unavailable, closed-form solutions for the fractional consumption rate, wealth, bequest amount, and bequest proportion under a constant relative risk averse utility. I show that the optimal bequest proportion is the product of the optimum fractional consumption rate and an exponentiated bequest parameter. Typical scenarios are explored using UK Office of National Statistics life tables, showing the behaviour of these characteristics under varying degrees of constant relative risk aversion.
    Date: 2020–05
  11. By: Joshua R. Goldstein; Ronald D. Lee
    Abstract: What would a hypothetical one million US deaths in the Covid-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? To put estimates of Covid-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes one million US lives, with results scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 3 years) and remaining life-years (12.3 years per death), which for one million deaths can be valued at six to 10 trillion dollars. The age-patterns of Covid-19 mortality observed in other countries are remarkably similar and exhibit the typical rate of increase by age of normal mortality. The scenario of one million Covid-19 deaths is similar in scale to the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the Covid-19 deaths will be concentrated in months rather than spread out over decades.
    JEL: J1 J10 J11
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Medvedev, Ilya (Медведев, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The object of the study is the dependence of demographic behavior and value orientations on educational status. The role of educational status in the mechanisms of the influence of value orientations and individual value attitudes on the demographic behavior of the population of Russia and in certain foreign countries is revealed. The paper presents the results of an analysis of the influence of the educational factor on individual values obtained on the microdata of the World Values Survey (VOC).
    Keywords: demography, gender, age, value orientations, educational status, level of education
    Date: 2020–03
  13. By: Adriano A. Rampini
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a sequential approach to lifting interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic taking heterogeneity in the population into account. The population is heterogeneous in terms of the consequences of infection (need for hospitalization and critical care, and mortality) and in terms of labor force participation. Splitting the population in two groups by age, a less affected younger group that is more likely to work, and a more affected older group less likely to work, and lifting interventions sequentially (for the younger group first and the older group later on) can substantially reduce mortality, demands on the health care system, and the economic cost of interventions.
    JEL: E32 E44 E65 H12 I10 I18
    Date: 2020–04
  14. By: Matthew Olckers
    Abstract: Over sixty percent of employees at a large South African financial services company select the minimum rate of 7.5 percent for their monthly retirement contributions, far below the recommended rate of 15 percent. I use a field experiment to investigate whether providing employees with a retirement calculator, which shows projections of retirement income, leads to increases in contributions. The average treatment effect is positive but very small and not statistically different from zero.
    Date: 2020–05
  15. By: Juranek, Steffen (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Zoutman, Floris T. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Understanding the effectiveness of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 is crucial to justify economically costly social distancing measures. We present a case study focusing on the three Scandinavian countries. Whereas Denmark and Norway imposed relatively strict measures, Sweden follows an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event-study approach in which Sweden serves as a counterfactual to Denmark/Norway to estimate the measures’ effectiveness. We estimate that in the counterfactual in which Denmark/Norway implemented Sweden’s more lenient measures the number of hospitalizations would have peaked between around 15-20 days later. The peak number of hospitalizations in Denmark (Norway) would have been 133 (231) percent higher, and the peak number of ICU patients would have increased by 107 (140) percent.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Social Distancing; Intensive Care; Case Study
    JEL: H12 I12 I18
    Date: 2020–04–29
  16. By: Andrew Glover; Jonathan Heathcote; Dirk Krueger; José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
    Abstract: To slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries are shutting down non-essential sectors of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in sectors that are shuttered have the most to lose. In this paper, we build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age (young and retired), by sector (basic and luxury), and by health status. Disease transmission occurs in the workplace, in consumption activities, at home, and in hospitals. We study the optimal economic mitigation policy of a utilitarian government that can redistribute across individuals, but where such redistribution is costly. We show that optimal redistribution and mitigation policies interact, and reflect a compromise between the strongly diverging preferred policy paths of different subgroups of the population. We find that the shutdown in place on April 12 is too extensive, but that a partial shutdown should remain in place through July.
    JEL: E20 E30
    Date: 2020–04

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